Jopal78

When they had Devin Williams coming off an NL Rookie of the Year and Reliever of the Year season, I could understand an argument for trading Hader and moving every one in the pen forward one spot without losing much overall. But now, Williams has shown that while very good, he isn't Josh Hader. Thus, there's no question trading Hader would weaken the bullpen. Therefore the return would have to be so overwhelming to improve another area of the team so greatly as to compensate for the weakening of the bullpen. I don't see that kind of return likely happening, so the best bet would be to hang on to Hader for the 2022 season.

As an initial matter, the Brewers probably shouldn't be looking to sign 30 year old sluggers to long term deals for an AAV of 18 or higher. With regard to Castellanos specifically, he had a .700 slugging percentage at GABP, and hit 23 of his 34 homeruns there in 2021. He's simply a monster in that ballpark but less so at PNC (.473 slugging) Busch (.349 SLG) and he's not the type of defender the Brewers usually look for. I'd be happy for him to go chase dollars somewhere else.

Trading 2024's Brewers for a short-term player today is against everything the Brewers have been trying to do as an organization. Such establishing a consistent flow of talent from the farm system to the major league roster in order to be competitive year in and year out. As to JBJ it's not that complicated, its about the AAV which he allowed the team to spread out over multiple years. In the unlikely event he declines his 2022 player option, he will have played for the Brewers for one season with an AAV of 13 million dollars ($6.5 was up front and $6.5 buyout if he declines the option and its spread out over time). If he elects his player option for 2021, he will have been paid the 6.5 million for 2021, 9.5 million dollars for 2022 and there is an 8.5 million dollar buy out on his 2023 mutual option. A total compensation of 24.5 million (an AAV of 12.25) again spread out over time.

While Manager and pitching coach have been more stable, the hitting coach with the Brewers typically lasts about three years before being given their walking papers: Butch Wynegar 2003-2006 Jim Skaalen 2007-2008 Dale Sveum 2009 to 2011 Johnny Narron 2012 to 2014 Darnell Coles 2015 to 2018 Andy Haines 2019 to 2021 Look at the end of their tenure, they almost all came right on the heels of a big let down (Wynegar was fired for lack of improvement, Sveum left to be the Cubs manager). 2008- lost 1-3 to the Phillies in the NLDS, moved on from Skaalen 2014- were in first 133 days, collapsed late and missed post-season, moved on from Narron 2018- lost 3-4 to the Dodgers in NLCS, moved on from Coles 2021-lost 1-3 to Braves in NLDS, moved on from Haines. They may as well acknowledge the hitting coach is the scape goat, and eliminate the role, opting instead for a hitting mechanics instructor and creating a strategy coach.

Hader struck out 45% of the batters he faced in 2021, and was all but automatic in protecting a 9th inning lead. Anything can happen, however I don't think there is a scenario where Brewers would trade Hader this offseason and improve the overall talent level of the team. With two years of team control remaining; only the clubs who want to win now would be potential landing spots for Hader. However, major league player for major league player swaps don't happen very often between two contending clubs. Further, after four consecutive playoff appearances the Brewers are likely trying to field the best group of players it can, which makes trading Hader for prospects illogical. Finally, Rasiel Iglesias is a free agent and had a 2.8 WAR in '21, Kenley Jansen (2.3 WAR) is also a free agent and Craig Kimbrel (2.5 WAR) will also be available. Each of the aforementioned players isn't as good as Hader (3.3 WAR) but two of them cost only money to acquire and Kimbrel certainly would be traded for less prospect capital than Hader as there is but one year remaining on his contract.

While I don't think the Brewers are really desirous to trade Yelich, if they were his NTC wouldn't be a sticking point. It's not as if went to Whitefish Bay High where he's attached to the area somehow. Moreover he's not really in a position to demand additional contract terms in the event of a trade, so his NTC is largely irrelevant. Yelich and Strasburg are pretty close in remaining pay. If the Brewers were to trade Yelich for some other team's garbage that would be a good match. Yelich 2022-2029--26 million per year. Strasburg 2022-2029. 35 million per year with 11 million deferred (Thus 24 million up front) when his contract ends in 2026, he is entitled to three annual deferment payments of 27 million dollars made payable in 2027, 2028, and 2029.

I cannot quibble with your philosophy, although I think it places equal pressure on the front office of a team like Milwaukee to act almost perfectly or wind up short handed in the talent department, than it would filling out a roster around one major star. Mainly because the number MLB players signing pre-arbitration extensions in 2021 is few and far between compared to what it was 5-10 years ago. In most instances the players taking those extensions have been the foreign born players who signed for little bonus money as kids (Freddy Peralta, Ronald Acuna, etc). Moreover, I'm sure there were posters advocating for an extension for Keston Hiura after 2019, and often times young successful players lose it overnight and struggle to find it again. As for finding potential market inefficiencies teams get burned all the time. For every Grandal there is a Jackie Bradley Jr., or Josh Lindblom.

Cain and JBJ profile as CFers where the White Sox have Luis Robert. If the Sox need a right fielder better than the combo of Andrew Vaughn, Gavin Sheets and Leury Garcia; they would simply trade for a RFer or sign one, not take the Brewers high priced CFers coming off disappointing seasons. As for the rest, Escobar made 7.6 million dollars this year, put up a 2.4 WAR and clubbed 28 homeruns...he'll get multi-year offers and for much more than 8.5 million dollars per.

I don't care what his career WAR is, almost all of it was prior to the extension. We paid Braun over $100mil over five years for him to average 1.7 WAR, that is what matters. What he did prior to that extension just doesn't mean anything. We could have paid Braun like $40mil over 9 years for 35ish WAR. Now THAT would have been amazing. They didn't do that though. They gave him $100mil+ half a decade before he would hit FA as a 32 year old. Of the five seasons of that extension Ryan Braun failed to have a WAR over 1.0 three of the years (via Bref). Another year was only 1.7 WAR. That is terrible, any random OFer off the street can give you 1.7 WAR a year. Tyrone Taylor had like 1.5 WAR this year. Keon Broxton did that twice for us. I am glad Ryan Braun wasn't Vernon Wells...or apparently Christian Yelich, but it really just wasn't a wise decision and really didn't end up that great. What get's left out is 2016 when he had a WAR of 4.3. From Braun '16-'20 he had a WAR of 7.9 (Bref); Fangraphs is more generous at 8.4. Frangraphs calculates that in the winter of 2020 a win in free agency cost 9.1 million dollars (Of course every website has a different computation as it's mostly speculative). Nonetheless by that Metric (7.9 WAR x 9.1 or 8.4 WAR x 9.1) you get 72- 76 million dollars. It was simply not as un-wise or foolish as you suggest. If you're sour because you would have preferred a conglomeration of assorted free agents or Keon Broxton, Tyrone Taylor, Domingo Santana etc. to provide that 7.9 to 8.4 WAR for less money, I suppose that's a fair point. It, however, ignores the volatility from year to year in those players and is certainly speculative. That the Brewers chose to extend a consistent known commodity at a market rate is what most teams try to do; and often before said player reaches the end of their contract. It's no different with Yelich; and in both cases we can be positive the team appreciated the risk they might be left holding the bag before offering the extensions in the first place.

Unless you truly believe a team should never pay market rates for players I don't understand the gripe with Ryan Braun. Sure, he had a lot of nagging injuries that kept him out of the lineup, but when he was healthy he produced. According to baseball reference Braun had a career WAR of 47.1 in 14 seasons and earned 144 million dollars in his career Matt Holiday had a career WAR of 44.5 in 15 seasons and earned 159 million dollars. Justin Upton has a career WAR of 32.7 in 15 seasons and has earned 173 million dollars Andrew McCutcheon has a career WAR 46 in 13 seasons and has earned 114 million dollars. Magglio Ordonez had a career WAR of 38.8 in 15 seasons and earned 133 million dollars (in an era with somewhat lower player salaries). Unless the argument is: the team would have hypothetically been better with a hypothetical collection of players playing for the amount of money the Brewers spent on Braun, I don't understand the complaint. The Brewers paid market rate for an above average slugger and while he was injured more than anyone would have liked, he produced on par with other star quality outfielders of his era. Its similar with Yelich, there's an inherent risk in signing veteran players to long-term market rate contracts. Star quality veteran players simply don't sign cut-rate contracts or short term deals. Philosophically, if someone believes a team should just have a revolving cast year to year and not play with any veteran players that's fine, but otherwise complaining that the Brewers paid market rate for a player seems like an exercise in shouting at the clouds.

Cain spent a lot of time on the Injured List in 2021, but when he played he was fine. The Brewers don’t really have a history of paying players to compete against them, and Cain isn’t a total black hole of a player where they should seriously consider it. Rather, like they did with Braun, they should work even harder at keeping Cain healthy in 2022.

That is a legitimate concern, probably the one hole in Stearns' track record with the Brewers. Not sure why a big time hitter hasn't been found via the draft. Not doing so also hampers the payroll a bit, since the team has to spend on free agents to buy offense. That doesn't always pan out, either. There is some hope that Hiura could bounce back to become that big homegrown hitter in the lineup. Shouldn't write him off yet, just as Burnes wasn't written off after the 2019 season. And there are some potential bats in AA and High-A, but they are a few seasons away from reaching the majors with plenty left to prove in the minors. But the lack of developing hitters in house means that trading from the position of strength--the pitching depth--will likely be the method of acquiring bats for the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Definitely. Would love to know what the "big time offer" was to acquire Bryan Reynolds. Man, that would have been amazing. Love watching that dude hit. Mitch Haniger. 824 career OPS and 124 OPS+ across 2000 at bats. But they traded him for Gerardo Parra before he made it to the majors. More of a slugger than a complete hitter, but Khris Davis was legit

Christian Yelich was better at the plate than Conforto in 2021. Just let that sink in for a moment. With Cain, JBJ and Yelich on guaranteed contracts for 2022, and Taylor out of options the Brewers are not likely going to be spending big dollars on another outfielder, and especially one coming of a season of poor play and injury.

In my dreams, I'd deal Woodruff to Toronto for Teoscar Hernandez. You'd likely have to include Taylor in that deal. Good thing we're fans and not actually GMs. Brandon Woodruff is a starting pitcher, inherently more valuable than a corner outfielder. Woodruff also has more team control remaining team than Teoscar Hernandez. And at least according to baseball reference Woodruff was a 5.7 WAR player in 2021 and Hernandez was a 4.0 WAR player. If the Brewers traded a starting pitcher it would more than likely be one of the younger ones in the vein of Ashby than their established horses. After developing about 4 quality starting pitchers between 1992 and 2017, I would hope they wouldn't immediately submarine their depth trading for bats. Rather they would be better off looking for the value singings like this past winter's Kyle Schwarber ($10 million), Brad Miller (3.5 million) etc.

They got shut out in game 3. Cannot win without runs no matter how well the pitcher pitches, so really while Counsell decided to abandon his strength in that game (pitching) to try to get some runs, it really didn't matter in the outcome.. unless of course you think Peralta would've homered or something.

It’s not 2005 anymore. Role players get 10+ million dollars a year in the major leagues now. That they’re going to be paying a former MVP and two former All Stars 52 million in 2022 isn’t really that big of a deal.

They scored 6 runs across four games. That has nothing to do with the manager, and is the main reason they lost. If anything Counsell got desperate and abandoned “pitching in defense” in Game 4 when he pinch hit Vogelbach for Peralta. The Brewers offense gave the pitchers no margin for error in two of the games, and tonight the Braves capitalized on their chances when they got them and the Brewers hitters didn’t; plain and simple. It has nothing to do with the manager.

That’s why teams don’t bunt anymore players rarely get good ones down

I think you can second guess the manager for pulling Peralta, but Wong, Yelich, Garcia, Escobar, sure didn’t make it easy for him

But it was a patella fracture. The patella affects the ability to bend and straighten the knee it has nothing to do with rotation. If he can run alright, it means his knee is good to go.

Yeah, he doesn’t run anymore he just limps along with a stiff knee.

In 2017, his last year in Miami, Yelich had 602 ABs and hit .282/.369/.439 with 36 doubles, 2 triples and 18 homers. In '20-'21 with Milwaukee, Yelich had 599 ABs and hit .234/.360/.392 with 26 doubles, 3 triples and 21 homers. Across '20-'21 Yelich's Hard Hit % is better than in 2017 (51.1% to 49.8%) Ground Ball % in '20-'21 is down compared to '17 (54% to 55.2%), Isolated slugging percentage is also up in '20-'21 compared to '17 (.159 to .156), and exit velocity is minimally better (91.6 to 91.2). Yet in 2017, Yelich's BABIP was .336 in 602 at bats, and in 599 at bats across '20-'21 it was .304. Despite having what is considered a down year, Yelich is literally an extra hit or two a week away from being the exact same player they traded for. And there's no doubt Yelich was a terrific player before the Brewers traded for him. It's a fair topic to debate philosophically it is wise for any team with limited resources to devote a huge chunk to one single player. In a game where even slightly above average players are making 12-13 million dollars its fair to debate it would be better to have two players for the money Yelich is being paid. But I do think it unfair to argue that Yelich's contract is bad based on his numbers in '18-'19 compared to '20-'21. This is because I don't think there's anyone, except those in fandom, who truly expected him to continue with a .631 Slugging Percentage like he put up in '18-'19. (FWIW Lou Gehrig's career slugging percentage was .632 placing him 3rd best of all time). Whether or not Yelich is meeting the expectations the front office had when they offered him a huge extension is anyone's guess. He is still a productive veteran player and we do know in the major leagues those cost a lot of money.

I hope you're right about Morton; but the last time he went on short rest in the playoffs was Game 7 of the 2017 World Series where he pitched 4 innings allowing two hits and a walk and picking up the win. I think it goes to show you the Braves aren't messing around and are going with their big game pitcher today. If Morton would lay an egg today they'll have even worse options Thursday.

I liked the deal. Doesn't change the fact though. It is looking horrific for the team right now. He's worse than I think any nightmare scenario could have imagined. Players have good years and players have bad years. Other than never signing a player to market rate deal there really isn’t any way to avoid it

Yelich went 1-3 with a BB on Sunday. The team had 6 hits total. He wasn't the problem. There's no way around the reality that Yelich is a major problem on this team as constructed and as it looks now, will continue to be one. We have a bad slap singles hitter making 30 million a year. If he had regressed to Marlins level, we'd probably be OK and at least a semi-watchable offense. Hindsight it 20/20 isn’t it? That’s the inherent problem of paying for anticipated performance based on prior production. On the other hand, had they let him walk or traded him and he remained a monster everyone would still call the front office a bunch of idiots.