Jopal78

The Brewers don’t “spend money” for the sake of it. Almost every free agent they sign is a value signing. This is too, a quality player with a short term commitment. Lee in mind JBJ reportedly was looking for 4 years at the outset

I think you and many others are underselling Tyrone. I'm expecting good things from him this year as our #4 outfielder. I don't think anyone is underselling him. To his credit, there weren't many major league players taken in the 2nd round in 2012, so that he made it at all is an achievement. However, when he turned pro in 2012 Taylor was a CF with speed as his best tool. I'm sure Tyrone Taylor would be adequate as a 5th outfielder, backing up CF, pinch running, defensive replacement and pinch hitting etc. He's miscast, however, as a corner outfielder, especially with Counsell who historically gets his 4th outfielder 350+ at bats. He hasn't hit enough or with enough power in the minors to suggest he'll be adequate as a semi-regular corner outfielder.

I think you and many others are underselling Tyrone. I'm expecting good things from him this year as our #4 outfielder. I don't think anyone is underselling him. To his credit, there weren't many major league players taken in the 2nd round in 2012, so that he made it at all is an achievement. However, when he turned pro in 2012 Taylor was a CF with speed as his best tool. I'm sure Tyrone Taylor would be adequate as a 5th outfielder, backing up CF, pinch running, defensive replacement and pinch hitting etc. He's miscast, however, as a corner outfielder, especially with Counsell who historically gets his 4th outfielder 350+ at bats. He hasn't hit enough or with enough power in the minors to suggest he'll be adequate as a semi-regular corner outfielder.

Sogard has the potential to get a lot of playing time in Chicago. Jason Kipnis is gone. If their pitching doesn't keep them in the Division race, Kris Bryant will be gone, and Javy Baez likely to go as well. That would leave only Nico Hoerner and David Bote on the roster as infielders. Good for Sogard to sniff out a real opportunity for playing time and to extend his career. I'm glad he isn't with Milwaukee this year.

Sogard has the potential to get a lot of playing time in Chicago. Jason Kipnis is gone. If their pitching doesn't keep them in the Division race, Kris Bryant will be gone, and Javy Baez likely to go as well. That would leave only Nico Hoerner and David Bote on the roster as infielders. Good for Sogard to sniff out a real opportunity for playing time and to extend his career. I'm glad he isn't with Milwaukee this year.

At one point, I think players in a minor league system were somewhat undervalued. However, with the skyrocketing cost of acquiring major league talent through free agency, every team now knows they have great value. That is why the type of trades (where a team gives up a Top MLB prospect/s for a star veteran) hardly ever happen nowadays, and certainly not in the offseason. Verlander, Greinke, Darvish, Stanton, Arenado etc. these type of trades are indicative of the star veteran type of trade now: A club almost giving a player away just to get out from underneath a huge contract.

I don't think that is a fair assessment. Harrison and Diaz were both 2nd round picks out of high school in the 2014 draft. If they contribute at all at the major leagues, I don't know how you can mark them as failures. To date there are only two other players from the 2nd round of the 2014 draft with positive career WARs (Alex Verdugo and Spencer Turnbull). Not to mention the first round is littered with busts: Tyler Kolek (#2 overall) Nick Gordon (#5 overall), Max Pentecost (#11) overall, and Milwaukee's own Kodi Medeiros (#12 overall). I do think it's fair to say with the dust having settled on the Yelich trade, the Marlins got an underwhelming return for Yelich. Yet it is not at all surprising given Yelich was already established as one of the game's better young players when he demanded a trade.

Anyone see the Brewers Instagram feed? They referred to a player as Dan Vogel. Screenshot too big to upload here

I'm sure there was very little chance of this happening, but it would have been awfully funny if someone had swept in with a big offer and the Dodgers lost Turner because they were playing games with their 40-man roster. I'm actually surprised this never has happened. Must be somewhat of an unwritten rule all follow. It's a matter of integrity. With all that goes into the negotiations of a contract and team's planning for the season, the career for a player agent would be quite short, if they struck deals with teams for their clients then welched on them.

Is Nathan Kirby still with the Brewers organization? He was their Competitive Balance pick back in 2015 (40th overall) and blew out his elbow almost immediately after signing. I do know he hasn't pitched in forever, but I haven't been able to find out if he's still with the organization, released or retired.

It's really not this simple, because the Brewers did make a very similar offer to the Dodgers. In fact, when you consider California's very high taxation on professional athletes, I find it very likely that the Brewers offer would have resulted in a higher net salary than what he's getting. Just not higher enough. A player like Turner who has made plenty of money in his career and is comfortable somewhere isn't likely to spurn $17M, hypothetically speaking, just for an extra $1M a year to go to Milwaukee. Money does matter, but in these instances the difference needs to be more than modest to matter. If the Brewers are arguing as a selling point that rates of taxation are lower in Wisconsin than California, it means they likely didn't offer the most money. Plus, professional athletes pay income tax in ALL the states where they play/"work" further diluting any significant tax advantages. There was a quote from Aramis Ramirez when he signed with the Brewers to the effect, "I play baseball games for money, they offered me the most money, so here I am". I'm sure lifestyle, quality of the team, etc. are factors considered by free agents in deciding where to play. However, at the end of the day they hardly ever trump dollars.

I agree with your initial premise, Cain has negative value when his remaining contract is considered. I also agree it’s extremely unlikely the Brewers would consider including substantial cash to move Cain. The part I would disagree with a bit is that it’s completely unfeasible he could be traded (although I’ll admit it’s “unlikely”). I think the only way a trade could make sense is if moving Cain coincided with another “bad” contract coming back to Milwaukee. For example purposes, lets say the Phillies were interested in Cain since they don’t really have a center fielder. The Brewers could take back Scott Kingery who has some positional flexibility in the deal and his remaining two-years and $15.5 million guaranteed (including buyout). For the Phillies the motivation over just signing JBJ may be that it both transfers some already allocated money towards a different player while also freeing up a roster spot from a player that hasn’t been very good recently. In any similar scenario it’s still likely the Brewers may have to include some cash, but not nearly what they would if they weren’t taking back such a contract. It may have happened, but off the top of my head I can't think of a trade in the last 25 years where the Brewers included cash; its just not something they do. It is true they could swap Cain for some other team's garbage, but those type of trades usually don't improve the overall talent on either club. Since the Brewers are planning on being competitive in their division this year, I don't see them shuffling pieces around for the sake of doing it without improving the overall talent level on the 26 man roster.

Yes 40 man is full with Anderson signing. Technically we would need two 40 man spots... Easy for me, DFA Vogelbach and Black. The 40 man roster has lots of surplusage at the moment. Since Ray Black can hit triple digits, they will give him every chance to make it before a DFA. Similar thing with Vogelbach, he raked for them in a small sample last year, and they'll give him every chance to make it before moving on. Players like Luke Maile and JP Feyereisen likely have more tenuous holds on 40 man roster spots. Plus, Tim Lopes, Mark Mathias and Daniel Robertson all essentially have the same skill set they can move on from one if not two of them and not miss a beat.

Every team has varying levels of interest in every free agent. Since he has gone unsigned for so long, perhaps Bradley’s desired contract parameters are mow more fluid, where a team like Milwaukee is now interested. Most of these leaks are from agents to media to stir the pot. I don’t think the mere passing of time makes a contract with Milwaukee more or less likely (although we have seen this pattern before with Darvish, Turner, etc).

I think you're overlooking a few things: Very much like when Moustakas and Grandal were signed by Milwaukee it was only because they were value signings for the team when the market for those players didn't develop as anticipated. In this instance JBJ's market certainly hasn't developed where he had hoped as camps are open and he doesn't have a contract. Plus, his agent is Scott Boras, the progenitor of the term "pillow contract". Secondly, if Marcel Ozuna and Michael Brantley got an AAV of $16 million and Joc Pederson got $7 million for one year. $8 to $10 million dollars is probably fair for JBJ. He's not as good as the first two, but better than Pederson. But more importantly, who else could the Brewers get for $8-10 million that would improve the team more? Keeping in mind the remaining free agents like Jake Odorizzi are not likely to suddenly take a huge pay-cut just to sign a contract.

Really there is no downside to having Vogelbach around for right now. He certainly isn't blocking anyone in the organization, and at the time they came to terms on his contract, the question of the Universal DH was unresolved. Now that it seems less and less likely there will be the Universal DH, and the fact they moved Hiura to first; I do agree he is sort of a player without a position But most importantly, even if Vogelbach doesn't work out, as an arbitration eligible player they can release him before opening day and only be on the hook for termination pay. If that's what ultimately happens with Vogelbach there really can't be a downside to taking a $250,000 gamble on a player who hit .328/.418/.569 in a small sample last year.

Like who? I would like to see Stearns make a blockbuster offer to the A's for Matt Chapman. They'd be better of to hire a team of scientists to re-animate Babe Ruth. Chapman is already fantastic and is under team control for 2 more years after 2021.

No team is taking on Lorenzo Cain for $35 million dollars and giving up something in return, and the Brewers don't typically include cash in trades. That tells you where Cain will be playing if he plays.

Love it or hate it, but the 2021 Brewers are going to be a pitching and defense team. In that context Bradley makes a lot of sense. The Brewers have 10 games in A.L. parks where they could move play Yelich at DH and have superior outfield defense with JBJ, Cain and Garcia. Not to mention, with how much Counsell likes to spell his outfielders there will be plenty of at bats to go around. After the three starters the talent of their outfield group is quite suspect with longtime minor leaguer Tyrone Taylor and a couple of former prospects who have been unable to stick previously with multiple organizations: Billy McKinney and Derek Fisher. Thirdly, the Brewers have Avisail Garcia coming out of contract after 2021 (and unlikely to exercise the 10.75 million dollar club option for '22), and no player close to the majors to take over that spot. JBJ could slot into the starting lineup in 2022 and even slide into CF when Cain comes out of contract. Finally, Jackie Bradley Jr. is the kind of free agent the Brewers target. Like Turner he is a good all around baseball player. Good defender, has some power, runs well. Similar career numbers to Avisail Garcia also.

Money (or Money and connections)?

Who cares? If the Brewers had the better offer, Turner would be a Brewer. Not many professional players sign contracts because of the team’s legacy or prestige. Buehler knows that, or should. Money talks and at the end of the day Turner got more money from LA than Milwaukee would’ve paid him

Then again, this off-season $8 to $10 million/season is about the going rate for good but not great free agents: Walker, Schwarber, James McCann, Hand, Wong, Paxton, Mike Minor, Profar, Jose Quintana. With just a two year contract with an AAV of $10 mil, its not really "taking a risk." Walker is significantly younger than Anderson (who is on a cheap short term contract solely because of his own issues with injuries), and his stuff is better than Anderson's. As a Brewers fan this offseason has been distressing given the jump in AAV of these mid-tier free agents. The Brewers historically don't have many players making in excess of $7 million dollars per season and probably never will. If this $7 to $10 million is the new going rate for free agents who are more than a "band-aid" but less than elite The small market clubs like Milwaukee will have even less ability to bolster the talent on their rosters, and will then have to achieve an incredible success rate on developing amateur talent to have any chance at staying consistently competitive.

I always get a bang out of these Farm System ratings, not that they're wrong but because they are so arbitrary. Is Milwaukee 28th because they have no blue chippers on the cusp of the major leagues, or is there a general lack of measurable talent up and down? Hypothetically speaking, what if Feliciano, Turang and Aaron Ashby all go out and burn up AA, is the Brewers system going to suddenly jump 15 spots going into 2022 because they will then have 3 potential impact prospects at AAA on the cusp of the majors?

Sure, if Jeffress was willing to take a NRI the Brewers should see if he has anything left in the tank. However, last year his walks were up, strike outs were down and his numbers looked good due to a 3.9 H/9, and a 0.4 HR/9. Both of these numbers are waaay below his career marks, which with a regression to the mean without improvement elsewhere would mean he’d probably be getting pummeled regularly. With a significant amount of free agents remaining with substantial MLB experience, I do think the Brewers should try to bring in as many as they can on low risk contracts. It could only raise the overa talent level on the roster.

The Padres organization either owns or partially owns a TON of property immediately around their ballpark (which happened to be publicly funded itself) and have stake in many mixed residential/commercial property developments surrounding the area. They likely make more money as an organization for non-baseball activities than gameday revenues, and those revenue checks are cashed year round no matter what's going on at Petco. It also should be noted that the Padres are one of just two MLB teams that doesn't share its market with any other major 4 sports league teams - so they don't have to compete with other franchises for fan $'s...meaning even a fanbase that is fickle and isn't as engaged as WI sports fans gives the Padres more money than what Brewer fans give them simply due to lack of competition. That goes for TV dollars, too. Oakland somehow is the other, although they basically have all the SF teams in their backyard. They are the pro sports marketplace for San Diego - which is a larger market than Milwaukee and their overall metro area population of ~3.5 Million people is closer to the overall WI state population than the Milwaukee/Madison metro area. San Diego is only ahead of three clubs: Kansas City, Milwaukee and Cincinnati in terms of market size. While it is true that they don't "share" their market with anyone, they are also hemmed in by the Pacific Ocean, Los Angeles to the North, and Mexico to the South so there isn't a ton of potential for market expansion. However, the Padres did a similar splurge once before when they signed James Shields and traded for Craig Kimbrel, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Melvin Upton, Ian Kennedy etc. then broke the team up a year or so later. At least this time around they have Machado and Tatis and not a bunch of veterans in their 30s.