Jopal78

How much regression is really likely by signing Turner to a 3 year contract? He's not a "power hitter" in the classic sense of putting up a .500+ slugging percentage every year. Rather, Turner is a very good all-round baseball player. He makes good contact: his hard hit% in 2020 would have lead the Brewers and his 2019 mark would have been 3rd on the team. He doesn't strike out much having gone over 100 only once in his career. He knows what he is doing at the plate: his OBP the last 3 years is .389 (age 33, 34 and 35) which would be second on the Brewers after Yelich. Plus, he also historically has been strong and scoring runners from 3rd with less than two outs, which again is a product of having a good approach at the plate, which isn't something that regresses as suddenly as power for example. In fact, there isn't a 2021 projection for Turner where his OBP is below .360 which even assuming he did regress in years two and three of his contract, more probably true than not he would remain league average in getting on base. Same thing with his slugging percentage, absent a total power failure, even with regression he'd remain league average.

to your first point, so what? I'm concerned with the here and now. The Brewers team that we will be fielding in 2021 is almost like a AAA team in comparison to LA and SD. I don't care that we have made the playoffs 4 times to SD 1. Let's see where that shakes out in the next 10 years... The deck is stacked against us, obviously, it just gets frustrating. I am thankful that we have had success recently, but looking at the LA and SD teams, it is deflating to see what we are up against both financially and physically. Staying competitive is great, and far better than not being competitive, but if we can't have real World Series aspirations, it takes some of the air out. I think your passion is clouding your logic. The Brewers are going to be a pitching and defense team in 2021, this is especially so with the signing of Wong to play 2B. The Brewers bullpen doesn't take a back seat to anyone in the NL. Their rotation may not have the star power of Los Angeles or San Diego, but nobody would say that Woodruff or Burnes are clearly outclassed by Snell, Darvish, Kershaw, Buehler etc. They certainly will be competitive for their Division title, and as we saw in the NLCS in 2018 anything can happen in a 7 game series, or as in the 2019 WC game where the team that had a once in a blue moon comeback against the Brewers went on to win the title. In professional sports, talent costs money and there is an uneven playing field in baseball. That is why the clubs from the major media markets have won the World Series 14 out of the last 17 years. There's no reason to blame the Brewers for frustration with the system. In fact, despite not spending as much for talent as the teams from the major media markets, Milwaukee has really talented roster. Any of their projected nine starters would have a major league contract by next week if they were released today. Look no further than the Brewers teams of the 1990s to see how that has changed over time. Those teams were laden with AAA level talent and washed up veterans. And again, spending big gobs of money doesn't guarantee post-season success as the Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, can attest to. It is easy to clamor for a team to go "all in" because of the instant gratification. The reality is, not many do it because it generally results in a painful aftermath, especially if going "all in" doesn't result in a title. Look no further than the Padres, they owe 3 players close to 400 million dollars. They are "all in" and if they can't get by the Dodgers those contracts will strangle them as their young bloods like Tatis, Lamet get increasing more expensive forcing them to make some hard decisions. Further, the Cubs went "all in" and while they did win the title they are now breaking up their team to save money and have traded away tomorrow's starters and they appear to be looking at some lean seasons coming up.

As a long-time Brewers fan, how could you possibly be surprised that they went this route? That move was about as Stearns-esque as it gets. I mean, when has this team's front office ever made the predicted or obvious move? I'm not disagreeing with you, I'm just fed up with this off season, as a long time Brewers fan. Look at what LA and SD have done! Seriously, just take a long hard look at what those teams will be fielding, and what we will be throwing out there. It just saddens me to think that as baseball fans, who love our team, we just will be unable to compete for a World Series birth. It is just as close to impossible as it gets. Well, at least we aren't the Pirates. In the last ten years the Brewers have won 776 games and been to the post season 4 times. The Padres have won 686 games and been to the playoffs once. Prospect laden teams like the Padres accumulate those players from a years of futility. The Brewers don’t have any of the games top prospects because they’ve been mostly competitive for the last decade and we’re picking it n the middle or towards the back of a draft where there are no sure things and very few outside the top five or ten picks. As a fan, I don’t really want to invest my surplus time in a team that is obviously outmatched and playing for the future. For teams that are more reliant upon game day revenue than the major media markets it’s bad for business to have a team that isn’t competitive. I think the Brewers have done an excellent job keeping their team competitive in their division. They’ve always moved to improve the roster during the season when on field performance has warranted it. As a fan who could realistically want more

Braun honestly isn't good enough or versatile enough at this point in his career to just skip spring training, show up on opening day and expect a roster spot to be saved for him. So say you and your subjective analysis. The facts are the last three years Braun’s slash line is .265/.323/.488 with an OPS+ of 110. 50 homeruns in 305 games. He’s still an above average slugger, and if you’ve followed the Brewers closely in the last 13 years you’d know it’s been ages since Braun played much in spring training anyways. If this is end for Braun, I’m sad to see him go. Certainly the best player they’ve had in the last 25 years, and arguably the best player they ever had.

If you're reading between the lines here, it sounds like Turner will sign with whatever team gives him a three year contract. It appears the Mets are interested but unwilling to go to three years, the Brewers and their owner are interested but also seemingly unwilling to commit for 3 years. This is how these things typically play out, Turner can sit and wait for someone to meet his demands and if nobody does he can take the best of the lesser offers on the table, which seemingly would be a short contract with the Dodgers.

He was plagued with injuries in Detroit: on the DL with neck and groin strains, took a batted ball off the face, sprained his UCL, had off seasons core muscle surgery, sprained his right shoulder strain, and then he missed a big chunk of 2019 and almost all of 2020 with a right forearm injury. If he is healthy, there might still be something there. The launch angle against him in 2019 with Detroit (12.6) is exactly the same as it was the last year with the Nationals when he got Cy Young votes and made the all-star team. Like wise, the percentage of line drives hit off him was the same in 2019 (24.5%) as it was in 2015 (24.3%). He was a good command pitcher that didn't ever throw in the upper 90s. If he has his command and his healthy, he might be able to compete for a back end of the rotation spot as an innings eater.

Money talks. He’ll leave in a heartbeat if another team comes near where he wants to be money wise.

Except Rios is the reason the Dodgers are contemplating moving on from Turner. Rios is 26, plays the corner infield spots has hit in a small sample in the majors, and had an .887 OPS across 450+ minor league games. They're not going to drop or trade him, if anything he may take Turner's job. I think that's literally the point. If they resign Turner, it pushes Rios out. If they want Rios to start, they don't resign Turner. Right, but my point is they are not going to jettison a player like Rios from the organization whether they start him or not, or at least not for less than a king’s ransom

Except Rios is the reason the Dodgers are contemplating moving on from Turner. Rios is 26, plays the corner infield spots has hit in a small sample in the majors, and had an .887 OPS across 450+ minor league games. They're not going to drop or trade him, if anything he may take Turner's job.

You kind of have to think the Brewers have some plans on what to do at 3B and they’re waiting for the chips to fall. I don’t see them going into the 2021 season with just Luis Urias as the starting 3B. If they planned to play him mostly at third they’d surely sign a Brad Miller, Jedd Gyorko type player to hedge their bets at 3rd and give them depth on the infield.

There are literally thousands of these where you can’t choose an all time best: Ben Diggins, Ben Hendrickson, Dennis Sarfate, Dana Eveland.

No. Davis strikes out way less than Hiura

Or maybe they’re truly concerned their “best young hitter” has struck out in nearly 40% of his at bats. If he can’t get it under control, he won’t stay a starter

What team is going to give anything of value for Urias? He’s already couple of seasons removed from being one of the better regarded Padres prospects. His major league numbers so far are terrible. At this point his most marketable trait is youth, and frankly he’s probably worth more to the Brewers than he is to other clubs.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/kbos-kiwoom-heroes-sign-david-freitas.html A nice chunk of cash $550,000 for a guy who is a career minor leaguer

These guys are all professional players; outside of pitching and catching I’m sure they’re fairly interchangeable; if the player is willing to put in the effort. Hiura has played on the infield he knows tag plays, he knows force plays, he knows diving for balls, pick off plays etc. it’s up to him if he wants to put in the work to develop the footwork around the bag.

Correct, Spring training starts in two weeks and regular season starts on 4/1. It's a negotiation where the first offer was rejected; I don't recall hearing the owners say they were giving up. Only that the player's union rejected the first offer and stated they will continue to prepare for the beginning of the season as scheduled, which is nothing more than what you'd expect them to say to keep their leverage. With the patchwork regulations across the country re: in-person gatherings I'm sure it is somewhat important to the owners to mitigate the anticipated loss of playing with no paying fans or far fewer fans than are typical. With the acrimony of last season, it is probably good for both sides to work something out so they have at least some common ground as the current labor agreement expires later this year.

Frankly with the owners looking to move back the season due to the pandemic,, and the players Union expressing their attention to report in order to be ready for a traditional start to the season, I’m not so sure we’re going to have baseball all summer. I am 100% sure before the Brewers sign anyone to more than a minimum deal they are going to wait until the short term labor issues are resolved and they know when the season is starting.

All that may vey well be true, but a 98+ OPS means exactly what I said, a league average hitter. Not even the most outside the box thinking team is going to sign a league average hitting outfielder in order to play them at first base; and signing Puig to start in the outfield doesn’t make the team better.

Puig is basically living of his notoriety. He had 2 big seasons with the Dodgers 7+ years ago. Since that time he has essentially been league average as a hitter. His hitting prowess is not such that it’s reasonable to hire him and play him out of position. Secondly, he’s not clearly better than the OFers the Brewers currently have under contract. Based on the above he’s not a good fit for Milwaukee without ever having to reach a discussion about his antics/behavior on the field

Lambeau Field has a capacity of close to 100,000 people. So allowing 8,000 fans in the open air was around 8% of its capacity or a little more. On the contrary, the capacity of Miller Park is approximately 42,000, its probably optimistic to assume they'll have 25% capacity (or 10,000 fans) in April when the roof is closed more often than not. There in lies the problem, there is a cost involved in hosting fans and its probably tricky finding a way to both host a small number of fans and yet make money after costs.

Edwin Encarnacion on a minor league contract with an invite to camp? Had terrible season in Covid ball, but put up a very nice .875 OPS in 2019. Likely never found his timing in 2020, as he still managed to hit 10 homeruns in 44 games, but his BABiP was .157, 90 points below his 2019 mark, and 110 points below his career mark. Hits LHP better than right handed pitching and has played a lot of 1B the last 5 years or so coupled with DH’ing

The fact they haven’t traded Hader by now means almost assuredly he is going to start the year with the Brewers. The combination of facts: that he is dominant, well-paid and Milwaukee is not going to give him away made a deal unlikely from the get-go

...and don’t forget baseball should never have expanded into Denver. Great market, nice stadium but the environment dictates they’ll never have enough pitching to win it all

Sub-comment: with already close to 100 million dollars committed to just four players: Carpenter, Fowler, Goldschmidt and Arenado. Are the Cardinals really a team that should be in the competitive balance draft?