Jopal78

Starting pitching? They could get a quality hitter if they offered up Peralta and Suter, Obviously their two best trade chips are Woodruff and Burnes but there isn't a realistic path to compete without those two.

I think it is more the opposite, when teams know a player is going to be cut loose they don't want to be giving away talent to acquire someone who they may be able to get for nothing in the near future. The Indians are some sort of machine when it comes to developing pitching they've traded away really good starting pitchers and it hasn't hurt them a bit due to their depth. I think placing Hand on waivers has everything to do with how successful they have been in developing pitching talent that their bullpen is already deep with Karinchak, Wittgren, Cal Quantrill, Cimber, Cam Hill. So deep in fact that they are better off reallocating that 10 million dollars elsewhere than they would have been keeping an all star closer.

I don't know, Dusty Baker is about the same age (71) and he did just fine with the Astros, and taking over what could not have been a worse situation. If La Russa is truly committed to managing I'm sure he'll do just fine. However, since retiring in 2011 he has worked for MLB under Joe Torre, run the front office of a team (Arizona), been VP/Assistant GM (Boston...and got another WS ring), and has been an special advisor for the LA Angels. That is a lot of different hats and organizations in ten years. He very well manage the Sox for one year and ride off into the sunset again.

Conservatively you are advocating for adding 20+ million in payroll in 2021 which just isn't going to happen. Odorizzi has averaged 13 million the last two seasons with Minnesota. Alex Wood made 4 million last year Cabrera made 2.5 million last year Moreland made 3 million last year Maybe those players take cuts from last year, but isn't going to be by much. The Players will be the first ones to howl collusion if owners are suddenly asking them to take fifty cents on the dollar.

How does a small market team or a bad team inject extra talent into their system? By taking every player you can who you know you can flip later for longer term talent. It's smart, and the teams at the bottom of the pile standings wise are likely the ones with little to no money committed to 2021.

Only if they were actually going to hand Knebel $5mil...which I am pretty skeptical of. If a team is dumping Brad Hand for $10mil it seems likely we would balk at Knebel for $5mil. We are already super tight on money before spending a dollar...I doubt Brad Hand at $10mil is in the cards. Unless of course you all like the Sogard's/Peterson's of the world filling out the infield... I wouldn't be so sure on Knebel, other than coming back from TJ surgery in the weird 2020 season, he has been nothing short of fantastic for the Brewers: 164 IP, 118 H, 252 K, 3.23, 0.9HR/9 and K:BB ratio. The Brewers would be unable to acquire a pitcher with the above stat line for 5 million dollars, so I'm not so sure they'll simply cut bait with Knebel. Also, arbitration contracts are not guaranteed until the start of the season so they can always tender Knebel now and if he still isn't wholly back from his arm injury they can release him at the end of spring training with nothing lost.

The GM of Pittsburgh, Texas or Detroit would be crazy not to claim Hand. Boston for sure will claim hand if he gets that far. The other trio of teams could claim him, play him half the year then swap him off for prospects. Hell, they could even claim him now and swap him off come spring training when the financial landscape is more certain.

There is probably some unconventional thinking here which suggests the Brewers should put a claim in on Brad Hand, and exercise the ten million dollar option. They then would have a bullpen Hader, Hand, Williams, along with middle inning guys Rasmussen, Topa, Suter, Yardley. With a strong deep pen, they could probably get away with a rotation of Woodruff, Burnes, Lindblom, Houser and Peralta because they only need 5+ from them a night. From a financial standpoint, you claim Hand at 10 million, and with non-tendering Knebel its a net gain of only 5 million dollars.

Are we turning back the clock to 2015? Since opening day of 2016 (covering 2000+ at bats), Todd Frazier has hit .226/.318/.431, struck out in 26% of his at bats, and will be 35 by opening day 2021. I hope the team has their sights set higher than bringing in another aging veteran who struggles to make contact and get on base. Didn't they already have Sogard multiple times?

If I'm Stearns I'm checking out Miguel Andujar in the DWL. If he's healthy, he'd have to be included in any deal with Yankees for Hader. This is my point: if the Yankees were going to trade Deivi Garcia for Josh Hader, they're not going to throw in a bunch of other players. They'd be trading a 21 year old, major league ready, left handed starter with at least 5 years of team control. Since Hader is the better player right now, the Yankees could include some low level minor leaguers in the deal, but not their blue chip players near the major leagues. With Brett Gardner coming out of contract, Frazier projects to be a starting corner outfielder for the Yankees. They'd be trading an everyday player with four years of control, I'm not sure how much more can reasonably be expected in a trade for a pitcher who may throw 75 innings a year, no matter how good those 75 innings are. As for Andujar, I'm sure the Yankees would include him as a throw in. He's injured a lot, an impatient hitter and doesn't play defense. The real question here is why would the Brewers want him?

Is there a real reason to bring Gamel back? Don't get me wrong, he is a sound fundamental player, versatile in the OF, good baserunner. However, he's going to be 29, is no longer a minimum salary player, and across nearly 1400 plate appearances he is a .261/.331/.388 hitter. Is the difference between Gamel and Taylor so great that it warrants bringing Gamel back? I'd say no, and for a team without a lot of payroll maneuver-ability it's probably best to move on from Gamel completely.

Collins is not a guy who's good enough to headline a deal for Hader. So far major league pitching has overpowered him to the tune of 44 K's in 102 AB's. It's also questionable if he can remain primarily a catcher. Besides the White Sox gave lefty reliever Aaron Bummer a hefty contract a year ago. Bummer is their closer in waiting. Collins could be had for a lot less than Hader. He's got no position on the White Sox and he's already used up a couple options. Collins 44Ks in 102 ABs, Hiura 192 in 594 ABs. By that metric, I guess major league pitchers have been overpowering Hiura too? I have no idea if Collins and other pieces are a fair return for Hader, but a young major league ready talent with the pedigree and minor league numbers to suggest he will be an impact player at the major league level at a position of need for Milwaukee. There isn't a contending team in either league that would not have some degree of interest in Hader, he's the most dominant left handed relief pitcher in the game with multiple seasons of team control. I can tell you, the Brewers are on pretty equal footing in their division, and their nucleus is ready to win now. They are not going to ease off in 2021, trading Hader for minor leaguers that are a year or more away from the major leagues. Any trade involving Josh Hader is more probably true than not, going to bring back talent that immediately plugs into the major league roster.

Cots has their payroll commitments for 2021 at 54 million and MLBTR has their arbitration projections at a tick under 33 million (using highest projection), for a grand total of 87 million. If McCalvy is accurate about the 90 million dollar mark that gives them 3 million to spend on free agents. In that case, I'd decline the club options on Sogard, Gamel, Pina. I'd non-tender: Gamel (2.1), Pina (2.3), Arcia (3.8), Claudio (2.3) and Peterson (900k). With a grand total of 14.4 million dollars to sign free agents, there are not really any difference making hitters in the Brewers price point. I suppose I'd target Rick Porcello. Sure there's an unimpressive ERA in 2020 (5.64), but nice FIP (3.33), K:BB (3.6) k/9 (8.2) and HR/9 (0.8). Would slot in right behind Woodruff and Burnes. They definitely need a veteran innings eater presence in the rotation. Porcello has no significant injury history and averages around 6 innings per start for his career (351 starts). Finally, made 10 million in 2020 so the price is in an area where the Brewers can shop. Unfortunately with a sub-100 million dollar payroll, they are probably looking at trades from their bullpen to bolster the lineup unless they want a bunch of band aids like Asdrubal Cabrera or NRI players like Derek Dietrich.

Sveum was their hitting coach from '09-'11 and they were 3rd, 4th, 5th respectively in runs scored in the NL. Maybe they should bring him in to get more out of the offense.... OR maybe Sveum's good stats were as a result of having good major league hitters like Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hart, Cameron etc. in their prime. A white unicorn that will turn a bunch of second rate major league talent into a collection of great hitters, just doesn't exist.

First of all Braun has to exercise his half of his $15 million dollar option (I assume if he decides to play in 2021 this is a forgone conclusion). The Brewers most assuredly will decline their half of the mutual option. However, Braun isn't going to play sign with any team for $5 million dollars a year. Take a look at some comparable players: For example, Matt Holliday has similar career numbers to Ryan Braun. He became a free agent at age 36 and singed a 1yr/13 million dollar contract with New York. Lance Berkman, with better career numbers than Braun, became a free agent at 36 and signed a 1yr/10 million dollar contract with Texas. After his last season in St. Louis at age 37 season with a .728 OPS, Jim Edmonds signed a 1yr/8 million dollar deal with the San Diego Padres. At 38, Nelson Cruz signed a 2/yr 26 million dollar contract with Minnesota. Carlos Beltran at 40 signed a 1 yr/16 million dollar contract with Houston. If he decides to play in 2021 he may take a haircut from $15 million dollars, but its not going to be much (With 4 million already sunk on the option regardless of what happens, its a difference of 11 million which is actually quite on point given the above). In addition to the compelling argument his agents would invariably have in terms of value based on comparable players, at the end of the day all ballplayers are union members. Braun has had enough career earnings that even if he wants to play he'd probably retire rather than play on a cut rate contract, because of the bad precedent for an aging star taking a cut rate contract.

Gyorko made $4.5 million last year and had a .838 OPS. It is very plausible they could find a corner guy that contributes for that money. Yep (I think Gyorko actually made less and It’s his option for ‘21 which is 4.5), and Smoak and Sogard also made $5 million each. So really they missed 2 out of 3 times in trying to find contributors at cut rate 5 million dollars.

When he signed the extension, most people felt he massively undersold himself. So I doubt the contract will scare many away. Frankly, I think Braun's last contract when he first signed it was far more of a problem than Yelich's is now. I really doubt anyone is going to look at his numbers in 2020 and think this is the new Yelich. I really don't think the Brewers will move Yelich this winter, but they could easily move him if they wanted to. If he continues to play like 2020 in 2021, that might start to get people concerned, but most players are going to get a pass for 2020... Yelich has a full no trade agreement. Since he has control of where he plays, his value in any potential trade from here on out is limited no matter how well he plays.

Assuming they can fill one of their corner infield holes with a 5 million dollar per year free agent is not logical. When the average MLB salary is 4.5 million dollars, the facts of the matter is teams looking to plug a hole at 5 million dollars are going to hope to catch lightning in a bottle as players at that price are all going to have their warts. As for Knebel, he was hitting 96-97 mph by the end of the season. His stats across 214 innings with Milwaukee pre-Tommy John surgery are excellent. 214 IP, 310K, 1 HR/9, 6.8 H/9 3.26 K:BB ratio. I get that he was bad in 2020. However, his poor results are more likely than not a result of the shortened season. He wasn't healthy before spring training shutdown and didn't have the chance to go on a rehab assignment. Rather he had no choice but to work himself back into game shape in bullpens, simulated games and scrimmages. When Knebel was healthy he was as good as anyone in the pen which I why I think they will tender him a contract. Arbitration salaries aren't guaranteed until the season begins. They still have a chance to determine if he is 100% back from Tommy John surgery, and it doesn't cost them anything except termination pay. A healthy Knebel with Williams and Hader makes the Brewers bullpen the strongest in their Division and possibly in baseball.

Josh Hader, Brent Suter, and Josh Lindblom and to the LA Angels for Jo Adell, Jahmai Jones and Jared Walsh. Brewers get young major league ready players to be long terms pieces in RF, 1B and SS/2B. Makes sense to deal from a position of strength to infuse young talent in the lineup. Angels get elite closer, another quality arm in the bullpen and a back of the rotation starting pitcher. New GM under some immediate pressure to build out a competitive pitching staff while the Angels still have Trout, Rendon et al in their prime.

Neither team has pulled many players from their farm system in the last few years. Both GMs inherited some nice players from their predecessor (Neander inherited better pitching than Stearns). However, It's apples and oranges in terms of roster building. Neander has made an extraordinary amount of transactions moving major league players for other major league players (including a large amount of trades with Seattle), and very few free agents: Acquired regulars: Austin Meadows, Zunino, Choi, Wendle, Yandy Diaz, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Yarbrough, Glasnow, Anderson, Michael Perez Traded Away regulars: Drew Smyly, Matt Andriese, Steven Souza, Chris Archer, Mallex Smith, Brad Miller, Nathan Eovaldi, Jake Bauers, Emilio Pagan, Ryne Stanek, Tommy Pham Singed: Charlie Morton, Tsutsugo Stearns on the other hand, has made more prospects/picks for player trades: Yelich, Claudio, Narvaez, Swarzak, Moustakas, Schoop, Soria, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Lyles, etc. Stearns also has relied more on free agency to fill out his roster: Cain, Vogt, Chacin, Miley, Albers, Thames, Grandal, Garcia, Sogard, Gyorko, etc.

Tender Vogelbach, Hader, Healy, Knebel, Narvaez, and Woodruff Non-Tender Arcia, Claudio, Gamel, Pina, Peterson I'd tender Healy and Vogelbach, could always cut them before season started and not get stuck paying the full salary. Same deal with Knebel, tender him (5 million dollars isn't much in todays baseball economics). If he's back to regular health in 2021, the bullpen is at least three deep with dependable hard throwers. If he looks bad in spring training, can always release or even possibly trade him. Hardest decision may be Arcia. He took some steps forward with the bat in 2020 and is still young enough to have upside. But in Urias, they already have his replacement, and there will likely be plenty of defense first middle infielders who are also non-tendered. I'm probably wrong on Gamel too. The Brewers brass seem to like his skill set more than most.

No doubt, the Brewers would love to trade Arcia or Gamel, but it takes two to tango. Because those two players have a fair chance of being non-tendered the only thing they’d bring in a trade is another club’s roster filler. Same deal with Pina, very unlikely he is tendered a contract, so nobody is going to trade for him. As for Houser, he essentially went out and handed the team an automatic loss more often than not. Pitchers with good stuff and poor command are a dime a dozen. The only thing Houser brings back in a trade is another team’s question marks.

If the Brewers are going to trade Hader, I’d target the White Sox. They want to “win now” and their closer is heading into free agency. They have 2016 top 10 pick catcher Zack Collins. Solid minor league numbers, major league experienced, pre-arbitration eligible, blocked by Grandal. Then try to peel off a high upside piece or two that may be a few years away.

Below are the prospects on the site closest to the $32 million value and just below. Listing them all and not editing out any teams for likelihood as an actual trade partner. Luis Campusano (C, Padres): 32.1 Andres Gimenez (SS, Mets): 32.1 Brailyn Marquez (LHP, Cubs): 31.3 Heliot Ramos (OF, Giants): 31.0 Nolan Jones (3B, Indians): 30.9 Nick Gonzales (2B, Pirates): 30.9 Jasson Dominguez (OF, Yankees): 30.5 Kristian Robinson (OF, Diamondbacks): 30.4 Trevor Larnach (OF, Twins): 30.0 Matthew Liberatore (LHP, Cardinals): 29.8 Forrest Whitley (RHP, Astros): 29.7 DL Hall (LHP, Orioles): 29.3 OK - here's what I don't understand with these trade simulator values: there is no way that Stearns is trading Hader 1-1 for any of those prospects listed above. You can't tell me that Aroldis Chapman had the same trade simulator value as Gleybor Torres, and the other prospects heading back to the Yankees a few years back, nor can you tell me that Andrew Miller had the same value as Sheffield/Frazier. So, even though these guys might have more value than Hader on this simulator site - there is just no way that DS is making a one-one trade of Hader for any of these guys. He's going to need at least a couple of Top 100 guys to make a trade. Also, while many seem to think a trade this winter makes the most sense, it seems like most of the big trades of elite closers have all happened at the July deadline in recent years. So, I wonder if we still wouldn't be better holding onto him into next year (if the right deal isn't available this winter) and see if 2-3 teams next July want to really bolster their bullpen down the stretch run? Of course, the biggest risk there is you don't know how Hader will perform in the first 3 months next year or if the dreaded injury bug hits him. Moreover, the Brewers aren't going to strip it down to the studs by trading a core player for prospects when they have Yelich in the prime of his career. Accordingly, you can forget players like Larnach, Nolan, Jones Heliot Ramos etc., None of those players have played above AA. They're at least year's away, and could all have their stock fall off in the upper levels of the minors. If the Brewers trade Hader (which I think is highly unlikely) they probably are targeting major league players like corner infielder to fill the holes in their lineup.

I hope Braun comes back in 2021. When healthy, he's still a great hitter. The average MLB salary in 2020 was 4.4 million. In fact, Sogard and Smoak were scheduled to make $5 million in 2020. It's just nonsense to suggest Braun would even consider a 3 million dollar contract offer (or even a 4 or 5 million dollar offer). He's already banked a ton of money in salary, he's still a productive hitter, there's just no reason to even consider a below average contract offer.