Jopal78

Why would Baltimore want Corbin Burnes if it costs them Grayson Rodriguez and Westburg? With a negative run differential last year (-14), and being in a strong division, adding Burnes wouldn't put them over the top in '23, and Burnes is a free agent in 2 years. With dwindling team control, this prospective trade doesn't make sense for Baltimore; they'd be better off simply rolling with Grayson Rodriguez and Westburg for six years than Burnes for two. Moreover, Seth Johnson hasn't pitched above A-ball and just underwent Tommy John surgery, as a 2019 draftee he will need to be on a 40 man roster before he likely is even healthy again, let alone close to major league ready.

It was Doug Melvin who originally acquired Corey Knebel in '15, Brandon Woodruff in '14 and Devin Williams in '13, Hader and Houser in '15. In fact, Knebel and Houser already had major league experience before Stearns got to Milwaukee... so depending on your definition of "development" sure. Stearns was a capable GM, made some good moves could with some really good luck, and made some boneheaded moves. For every pitcher "developed" there was a hitting prospect who flamed out. So it goes.

It was Doug Melvin who originally acquired Corey Knebel in '15, Brandon Woodruff in '14 and Devin Williams in '13, Hader and Houser in '15. In fact, Knebel and Houser already had major league experience before Stearns got to Milwaukee... so depending on your definition of "development" sure. Stearns was a capable GM, made some good moves could with some really good luck, and made some boneheaded moves. For every pitcher "developed" there was a hitting prospect who flamed out. So it goes.

I guess I'm not the only one: Leibling 10:32 Who will be the Brewers' most surprising non-tender? Darragh McDonald 10:32 I think Renfroe is a possibility. 10:35 He had a really good year, but $11MM for a guy who mostly provides power is a decent amount for a team that doesn't run huge payrolls. Train 10:44 How would you rank the possibilities of these Brewers trading these players ? Renfroe, Rowdy, Keston, Houser, Burnes, Woody. Darragh McDonald 10:44 I would guess in that order, but with Woody and Burnes flipped. https://www.jotcast.com/chat/brewers-offseason-chat-14231.html

Caratini is a free agent after ‘23

Not a bad idea to do a tear down, but there would be more than growing pains; that team doesn’t win 75 games. Walker Buehler is going to miss most if not all of ‘23 and is a free agent after ‘24.

Hiura and Houser make zero sense for Oakland. They are likely going to finish last in the AL West in '23 and neither of those players would change that, and neither one will still be under control when the next competitive Oakland team hits the field . That fact alone makes it unlikely they would take on any amount of salary to simply spin their wheels with those two. Second, we can argue about Hiura all day long; the facts are, Hiura doesn't hit left handed pitching and he doesn't play defense, so really he's a right handed DH. He's not going to play everyday in a division with Framber Valdez, Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzalez, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Suarez, amongst others. Don't forget while Puk may be "strictly a reliever" he was one of Oakland's late inning relievers, and went multiple innings in several of his appearances and is pre-arbitration eligible. As I specifically mentioned earlier if they were going to trade him why would they take on a veteran bench player like Hiura when they could simply add talent to their developing minor league system? Moreover, I really don't believe Oakland or any other team is going to trade for Hiura and Houser with the intention of then flipping him down the road for prospects. The acquiring team would bear all the risk of injury and underperformance, and have to pay them ever increasing amounts of money. It's not a sound strategy for improving in either the long run or the short run. Which is why it makes zero sense. What I forgot to mention earlier is I don't think the trade makes any sense for the Brewers either. Tony Kemp plays 2B and LF and is projected to make 3.9 million dollars in his final year of arbitration. Yet your hypothetical has Kolten Wong, and Christian Yelich on the Brewers at 2B and LF respectively. Where exactly would Kemp play? I suppose you mean as a Utility infielder, but then he has two MLB innings at SS and has never played 3B. Finally to the Dodgers, unless Trevor Bauer's suspension gets overturned (doubtful) they have the flexibility to do whatever they want. David Price's contract is up ($32 million), Kershaw's contract is up ($17 million) as is Craig Kimbrel's ($16 million). I doubt they tender Bellinger a contract (projected 18 million), and exercise their club option on Justin Turner ($16 million). Correa, Bogaerts and Trea Turner are better players than Adames, and only cost them money to acquire not key prospects that allow the Dodgers to spend ridiculous amounts of money to fill holes in the first place.

Yep, and its apples and oranges. Google isn't proofing their work on free fan websites either. Pro baseball is a cut throat industry where a mistake in professional judgment can cost someone their career. I don't think you've ever worked in an industry where your judgment and expertise determines your worth, which is why it's okay you don't understand this. Using some fans' website when the website even admits they're often wrong, not meant to be predictive and importantly admit that MLB team's analytical engines are much larger and sophisticated is preposterous. Moreover, the website actually pimps having been mentioned in on sports/pop culture websites. Don't you think if they had any proof of someone in the business actually used their site, they would also pimp that too (even if it was just Scott the intern screwing around on his coffee break)?

I don't really care that they "should" have been a 91 win team, they weren't. Yes, I agree they played below the talent level and had some injuries, but there is no way to prevent that, and it could very well be the case again next year. Thus, the question is how do you improve the team without dismantling the starting pitching (because if you dismantle the starting pitching you may as well start over completely), and I agree its a narrow path with some tough choices. . I do think they are going to commit to some rookies in '23. For a couple of reasons. First, this group has mostly been together for a couple of seasons now and weren't very good as a contender; getting beaten badly in an upset in the Divisional series in '21 and missing the playoffs all together in '22. Secondly, Mitchell and Frelick are both former college player/first round picks who seemingly have nothing left to prove at AAA. Third, it's a team that always is going to be close to their payroll ceiling so saving money where they can and still competing is always the priority. I would suggest you look at the stat sheet again. Vazquez .274/.315/.399 in '22. Caratini was .199/.300/.342. Vazquez was the better of the two defenders by most metrics as well. As for Abreu he has been on the DL twice in his career and not since 2018, so I don't know why you would suggest he's suddenly not durable, you'd have been more credible suggesting his performance will tail off with age. Anyways, he is coming off a contract where his AAV was $16.6 million, and was a 4.2 WAR player last year (baseball reference). He's not going to take a pay cut, so if you think 18 million is too much, I'd love to hear your opinion on what comparable players you could get for less. With Suter it's simple. He's a lefty swingman with good career numbers., he can make spot starts, and pitch multiple innings. If he was non-tendered by Milwaukee he would have a new guarantee from another club by the end of the week and probably at 3 million per year or more. There's not really an inefficiency between his projected salary and the cost to replace it. As for the rookies, like I mentioned above, both Mitchell and Frelick are former college players and first round picks. Mitchell is already 24, had good numbers in AAA and held his own in limited at bats with Milwaukee. Frelick also hit at every level and is going to turn 23 next April. There's no reason to not give them both a shot in the major leagues in '23 especially when it would create "payroll flexibility". As for Benintendi, batting order is irrelevant. He's a good defender, gets on base better than most Brewers players. I don't see Milwaukee signing two marquee free agents but if they did I think Abreu and Benintendi would be tremendous additions. Yes, the whole reason for adding players like Abreu and perhaps Benintendi is to move away from having several all or nothing sluggers in the lineup (Adames, Renfroe, Tellez, '22 Brewers 2nd in NL in homers but 6th in runs scored) and to raise the overall talent level on the roster.

I get it, Trea Turner is going to be a free agent, but Adames wouldn’t be more than Plan D with LA at best. They’d be a better team by simply keeping Vargas to eventually replace Justin Turner, and fork over the money to sign Trea Turner, Carlos Correra or Xander Bogaerts. It only costs them money and luxury tax neither of which have been much of a deterrent to them recently. Further, Oakland isn’t at a place in the success cycle where Houser and Hiura make any sense for them. Oakland would be taking on salary to add two players who won’t move the needle for them in the AL West, and won’t be there when they put together their next winning club. If they want to move on from Puk and Kemp they may as well just flip them for minor leaguers and save the millions of dollars.

Ha. From the poster who proposes signing Mitch Haniger for 5 million, and getting Taylor Rogers to take a 50% pay cut to return to Milwaukee. If you truly believe this, then there’s no reason to discuss this topic with you further.

Read more carefully, it’s actually simple letting Renfroe walk (or trading him) allows them to use the money he’d otherwise make in obtaining a better player (the famed “payroll flexibility”) yet without creating a hole somewhere else on the roster. This is a byproduct of where they find themselves as a club: payroll at or near it’s limit and dead last amongst the teams trying for the playoffs in the NL. They’re not going to sign someone like Carlos Correra, they’re not going to trade a key piece like Burnes and/or Woodruff and realistically expect to get better in ‘23. Other than merely running it back again and hoping for better luck, how do they get better next year?

Where did they finish this year? 7th amongst 15 teams. I get it: counting stats (especially homers) are cool. But the Brewers tried having a bunch of players with a sub .320 OBP and 30 homers, and the teams was not good enough to make the post season despite having a Cy Young winner fronting their rotation. Why try the same thing next year and expect different results? There’s no guarantee their pitching will be more healthy next year.

Sure, maybe they demonstrated tremendous power with runners in scoring position and were awful at not making outs. After all they did hit a lot of homeruns. There’s a formula to argue any point. The team kind of sucked in ‘22. Of the teams that were actually trying to win they finished dead last. In a league where 40% of the teams make the post season, Renfroe was indisputably king on a team that was an also ran. I don’t believe because he was the best slugger on a mediocre team, the Brewers should automatically punch his ticket for ‘23, especially when there are few paths to get better in ‘23 without spending more money.

I admit, I don’t know wRC+ could very well be accurate. However I do know if I gave you a stat sheet of the ‘22 Brewers you wouldn’t be able to tell me their wRC+. Theres seemingly a formula to prove any statistical point one wants to make.

Like I said it’s a billion dollar industry where players are willing to shoot chemicals in their arms to get an edge; executives risk going to prison seeking an edge in illegally exploiting signing Latin American players. Yet some dude has an algorithm that is 95% accurate in determining trade values and he lets MLB teams use it for free and nobody has purchased it from him yet. HA HA… it’s baloney.

Yep, Renfroe is lord amongst the losers that were the ‘22 Brewers especially in terms of an impossible to calculate “weighted runs created” There’s seemingly an impossible to calculate analytic to say every player is awesome. Pin a medal on him.

The New York Times bought Wordle after like 6 months. If that trade values website wasn’t complete garbage it would have been snapped up by someone by now. That’s the way the world works, especially if it’s possible it could give some team an edge. Moreover, professional baseball is a billion dollar industry. If anyone with half a brain stumbles upon an algorithm that was reasonably reliable for evaluating MLB trades why would they ever give their information away for free?

Again, use logic. If they needed to “check their work” it implies this jamoke has a better algorithm and with millions of dollars and careers at stake someone would have bought it from him by now.

I like the creativity but this team probably wins 80 games.

Yep, and they’ll never know until they try. Like I’ve said there aren’t a lot of paths to get better without adding a ton of payroll (which is not going to happen). There’s nothing wrong with Renfroe, but he gave them everything they could’ve hoped for in ‘22 and finished 7th out of 15 teams.

Yet, no team has purchased it and made it their property to the exclusion of the other teams, AND the proprietor apparently continues to let MLB teams use it for free despite it being 94.8% accurate. Doesn't wash, but hey whatever maybe baseball is filled with a bunch of idiots after all.

I don't dislike Renfroe, but he is what he is: a pure slugger who doesn't walk much, or hit for average. While he's certainly not the only one who fits that description, he does play for a team that went 19-30 when they didn't homer, and were near the bottom of the pile in terms of hitting with runners on base and runners in scoring position. Now couple that with the fact, he's the easiest player to move on from: he makes significant money, has little to no upside, and plays a position where they Brewers have two former first round picks and others in AAA. They could always attempt to trade Renfroe, but then again most contending teams would have tepid interest because of their current RF situation (Betts, Acuna, Soto, Marte, Harper, Kyle Tucker, Oscar Gonzalez, Teoscar Hernandez, Nootbaar, etc) and the non-contenders are probably not taking on that type of contract. The difference between Renfroe and the pitchers Suter and Houser is they're more valuable and make substantially less money. Any team can use a lefty swing man like Suter with a career WHIP of 1.21 with a 3:1 walk to strike out ratio. Houser suffered a shoulder injury in 2022 and had a bad season, but he still could be a #5 starter on just about every contender and probably as high as a #3 starter on a bad team, and he has multiple years of team control remaining. I could be wrong but I'd bet both of those pitchers are in the Brewers' plans for '23, and if not they would certainly be able to trade them before having to non-tender them. We'll see what happens at catcher. The Padres sent the Brewers cash in the deal for Caratini to off-set his 2 million dollar salary, so I really don't see Milwaukee handing him a raise after he kind of sucked for them in '22. Obviously, they're not likely going sign two new free agent catchers. And they've thought well enough of Feliciano to keep him on their 40 man roster the last two years. What seems most logical is they sign a #1 and bring in some NRI veterans to compete with Feliciano for the #2 spot. As for Benintendi, yeah IF the Brewers could sign two major free agent players, he'd be a good get despite the fact he plays LF. It wouldn't block anyone, and he's a very different player than Renfroe. He doesn't bring the thunder like Hunter, but he doesn't strike out a ton and is above average at getting on base. That's the whole point: the '22 Brewers were an average team with a bunch of sluggers with below average on-base skills. Since they were an "also ran" with that approach in '22 maybe they should try something else next year.

The thing you fail to repeatedly see in all of this is: the difference between even a .740-.750 OPS outfielder and Renfroe at .790-.800 is not worth the difference in price between $700K and 11 million dollars. In a team like the Brewers with limited financial resources, tremendous outfield depth in AAA, that's a pretty big chunk of cash for a player who is ok, but is and has been at his ceiling as a .790-.800 OPS outfielder. Since they have 4 players in AAA who most likely could step in and play competently at the MLB level; one way to become more talented without trading away a key major league player or minor league depth is to reallocate the money they would otherwise pay Renfroe as a portion of an offer to a free agent hitter like Jose Abreu who could play 1B or DH, where the Brewers do not have depth. As for Benintendi, you should read more carefully what I wrote. First of all, I don't think the numbers would work anyways. But if if they did nobody would be blocked as Benintendi would play LF, Yelich to DH, Abreu to 1B and two outfield spots open for their young players. I could be wrong but I believe the Brewers will look to become more balanced and move away from having a collection of players with big time power and poor on base skills. Abreu fits that bill, if they could afford two free agents, Benintendi would as well. I'll largely disregard your comments about Suter and Houser except that the Brewers likely won't non-tender either of them. I assume both are in their plans of 2023, but if they are not, they would have zero trouble trading either or both of them. As for Feliciano, he's been in the organization since 2016, and has been on the 40 man roster since Nov. of '20; it's basically now or never for him with the Brewers.

I think Abreu+Frelick produces more than Renfroe would in '23. Christian Vazquez is better offensively and defensively than Caratini but is a few years older...so there is some risk there but Vazquez with Feliciano as the #2 can't be worse than Narvaez/Caratini. Would like to be better at 3B than a Peterson/Brosseau platoon, but absent a trade it's not going to happen. I also am not sure if they would have Turang break in as a utility player, or fill that spot with a bargain bin veteran so Turang can play every day in AAA. One other option would be to move on from Renfroe, Tellez, Suter. Stick with Caratini, Abreu at 1B, Yelich at DH, and Benintendi in LF, but keeping below 130 would be iffy. ? Christian Vazquez ($7.50M) 1B: Rowdy Tellez ($5.50M) 2B: Luis Urias ($4.50M) 3B: Jace Peterson ($2.50M) SS: Willy Adames ($9.50M) LF: Christian Yelich ($22.00M) CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.70M) RF: Sal Frelick ($0.7M) DH: Jose Abreu ($18.0M) 4th OF: Tyrone Taylor ($0.7M) Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.00M) Utility: Brice Turang ($0.70M) Backup ? Mario Feliciano ($0.70M) SP1: Corbin Burnes ($11.50M) SP2: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M) SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M) SP4: Eric Lauer ($5.00M) SP5: Adrian Houser ($3.50M) RP: Brent Suter ($3.00M) RP: Peter Strzelecki ($.7M) RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M) RP: Trevor Gott ($1.40M) RP: Hoby Milner ($1.00M) RP: Devin Williams ($4.00M) RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.20M) RP: Jake Cousins ($.7M) Payroll is 5.77% under budget