Jump to content
Want to get your head around free agents the WORLD CHAMPION Brewers can spend on this winter? Click here and check out our top 75 free agents ranking! ×
Brewer Fanatic

Jopal78

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,778

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Jopal78

  1. Jopal78
    White Sox NRI
  2. Jopal78
    You have it backwards. They kept Jimmy Nelson for all of ‘18 when he was rehabbing and then all of ‘19 when he was injured/ineffective/rehabbing, then cut bait. Knebel missed all of 2019 with Tommy John. In ‘20 Knebel pitched 15 of the 60 games in Covid Ball and was traded to LA after stinking it up. Then, he missed three 3+ months with the Dodgers after suffering another injury. If anything, the past it shows the Brewers are patient with their premium arms and have generally known when to cut them loose.
  3. Jopal78
    That’s the thing, nobody knows. but a career WHIP of 1.04 gives a lot of room for his performance to backslide
  4. Jopal78
    I don’t know what you want me to tell you. Look at the comps, he was amongst the best in the game when healthy. Then look at the trash that trots out there for most teams in that 4 spot: Drew Smyly, Jameson Taillon, Stephen Matz, Jack Flaherty, Luis Severino, etc etc. I think you either under appreciate how good Woodruff is or don’t realize the crap that 25+ teams fill the back half of their rotation with.
  5. Jopal78
    Sure, and Woodruff healthy was a #1, multi-year All Star who got Cy Young votes. If he comes back 50% of what he was that probably still makes him a #3-#4. For sure, the Brewers are taking a gamble, and they even got burned the last time when they paid Jimmy Nelson for two years after he ostensibly suffered a career ending injury. BUT since the new CBA even bad pitchers like Jack Flaherty are getting $15 million per season now, so there isn’t a whole lot of downside in rolling the bones on Woodruff
  6. Jopal78
    I would say this is “his shot”. He was DFA’d and nobody wanted him, the Brewers couldn’t unload him at the deadline in ‘23 for anything, he couldn’t get a major league guarantee for ‘24, and had to wait until ST started to sign a minor league deal, where a rebuilding club is hoping to buck the odds and catch lightning in a bottle
  7. Jopal78
    For what it’s worth, here’s Keith Law’s take on Robert Gasser, might be time to tap the brakes on his ‘24 potential in the rotation unless they let him learn at the MLB level. Gasser had a rough start to 2023, his first full year in the Brewers’ organization after they acquired him in the Josh Hader trade, but he came on strong in the second half and looks once again like a solid fourth starter. He dominates lefties but continues to have a platoon split, with all 12 homers he allowed last year coming to right-handed batters. He has an average or even above-average changeup, but he doesn’t use it enough, preferring his cutter in those situations even though that pitch only seems to get chase swing rather than swings in the zone. His fastball has average velocity with good arm-side run and his sweeper actually sweeps, hard and down away from lefties, generating a lot of swings right over the top. He does have to change his pitching plan against righties to get to that starter ceiling.
  8. Jopal78
    I don’t think the league is tough on pitchers, rather the pitchers in AAA are nearly all depth/organization soldier type players instead of “prospects”. There may be a point with Gasser too. None of Woodruff, Burnes or Peralta pitched more than 78 innings at AAA before debuting in the majors. Zach Davies pitched 128 AAA innings before seeing the majors. Gasser is already at 161 innings and that is even when the major league club was turning to Julio Teheran, Rea, etc for starts
  9. Jopal78
    It’s the Brewers; if he makes the team for Opening Day, they’ll break Gasser in as a spot starter/ multi-inning reliever this year, and have him move to the rotation full time in ‘25. That’s how they managed the early years of Peralta, Burnes, Ashby, Woodruff. If he doesn’t make the team, it can only mean the Brewers have 6-7 guys they like more for the rotation/multi-inning reliever which would be a good thing .
  10. Jopal78
    Once you realize 97% of pro baseball players (and their agents) do not care where they ply their trade, as long as the money is right, none of this matters. Fans might be dumb and refuse to believe, but every MLB player who stacks success at a young age like Hader, likely has the date they can file for free agency circled on their calendar. Obviously the one exception is some Latin players who signed as teenagers for Pennies on the dollar compared to what top draft picks born in America get. The simple truth is Hader plays a game for money, and his career as a player will most assuredly be over in ten years or less. He’d be foolish to not try to secure as much guaranteed money as he can while he has incredible earning capacity.
  11. Jopal78
    Wouldn’t Garrett Mitchell have to stay healthy for a season before he has any real trade value? The most games he’s ever played in a season as a pro is 68. No team is going to trade much if anything for a player who so far has been injured most of the time as a pro.
  12. Jopal78
    Don’t let the facts get in the way, Brebbia had a 0.2 WAR and spent half the year injured-facts-. I don’t have an opinion if Junis is a good signing or not for the Brewers, I do know, however, that in 2023 if you’re shopping for free agents for 3-4 million or less per season you’re shopping in the junk bin where most players are in their late 30s, or coming off injuries or just had bad seasons. I think you know that too but want to ignore it in order to double down on a point (you don’t like Junis/Junis sucks) that’s subjective,
  13. Jopal78
    The same Brebbia who missed 2.5 months with a lat strain and barely had a positive WAR 0.2. 37 year old Kirby Yates who has pitched 71 innings total the last four years, or 38 year old Ottavino. I get it you don’t like Junis but your examples of old, injured and ineffective pitchers is arguing against your point.
  14. Jopal78
    Look around the league since the latest CBA went into effect I think you’ll be surprised at what a 3-4 million dollar or less guarantee gets you: Luke Weaver, Jorge Lopez, Carlos Carrasco guys coming of 6.00 era seasons. Rowdy Tellez, Kevin Pillar, Joey Wendle, Nick Senzel guys who had negative or Zero WAR in ‘23. Even ancient players like Carlos Santana and Andrew McCutchen are getting 5 million dollar guarantees. Maybe you’re right and Junis isn’t worth 7 million dollars, but that’s certainly the going rate for the type of pitcher he profiles as (back end starter, swingman), and I’m not sure who you can realistically expect them to get for the same or similar dollars that makes more of a difference.
  15. Jopal78
    I’d be surprised if they truly have Junis in the rotation, and not the swingman it would be playing against his strengths. As for the salary, 7 million dollars is nothing in today’s game. You can’t get a SP, high leverage reliever of quality position player for that kind of money. You get exactly the Junis type of player: mediocre career numbers coming off a decent season.
  16. Jopal78
    Players go where the money is. I’m sure Martinez (and Soler) are holding out for multi-year deals. If/when they decide they’ll accept a one year contract they will have no lack of suitors. Given the Brewers M.O. to be active in free agency late with one year guarantees, I’d bet they have open offers to both Martinez and Soler. It’s somewhat out of character for Milwaukee to hand out a major league deal to Haase and now sign Sanchez. Gary is not really the kind of guy you want to DH every day, and if he’s going to play some catcher than there’s no need to carry Haase on the 26 man at all, and it’s essentially eating a million dollars .
  17. Jopal78
    $7 million dollars, market rate?? Like most recent Brewer free agent signings it’s actually a cut rate deal ( especially being able to split that 7 million dollars across two seasons with use of a buyout on a mutual option). You can’t sign a free agent starting pitcher for much less than 10 million dollars. Then relievers with starting experience like Matt Moore, Joe Kelly, and Martin Perez are all making 8 million or more in 2024. Grandal and Hoskins aside, this is the same song and dance the Brewers do every late January/early February: sign some established veteran free agents who are willing to take bargain rate one year guarantees.
  18. Jopal78
    Which is my point; Junis may have some real value as a multi-inning reliever swingman. As a 5th starter he’d likely be below average guy you hope makes it through 4-5 innings. With Gasser, Hall, Ashby, and the other younger arms they have, it seems in the long run they’d be better off seasoning those guys than having Junis soak up 4 innings every 5th day.
  19. Jopal78
    But Houser 42 of Houser’s 45 appearances in that time frame were starts. Only 21 of 63 appearances were starts for Junis. The last time Junis was used as more than an opener (2022) his era as a starter was nearing 5.00 Probably earmarked as the swingman on the ‘24 team in the vein of Jason Alexander or Aaron Ashby. I sure hope they would stick with their young arms at the back of the rotation than rolling with Junis.
  20. Jopal78
    That doesn’t make a lot of sense. If Hoskins plays well in ‘24, it means he’s opting out. That’s why Boras coined the term “pillow contract”. If he doesn’t play well, this discussion becomes a moot point because the Brewers won’t be able to trade him anyway. Catastrophic injuries for non-pitchers do not happen very often; assuming he plays well in ‘24, I doubt the risk of another catastrophic injury figures significantly in the calculus if he ultimately becomes available in trade.
  21. Jopal78
    Hmmmm, one MLB team has a recent track record of trading key performers at the deadline despite being a contender, and they have dropped pitchers who started a combined 84 games for them last year, so there is definitely some unpredictability in the Brewers front office so I wouldn’t rule it out completely. But yeah, you’d think it unlikely which is why I put “or he opts out”
  22. Jopal78
    Folks want to be Tampa Bay, yet when the Brewers shuffle the deck like the Rays there’s anger and frustration. They were always going to trade Burnes, despite their “bites the Apple talk”. The awkward timing of it just means the front office figured this package from Baltimore was the best they were going to do. The Hoskins signing is smart despite what happens with Burnes. If he plays well, they trade him at the deadline, or he opts out, declines their QO and they get a pick in ‘25. Even if he struggles, he’s a vet with a good reputation league wide to hold down the fort with Yelich while they break in young players across their lineup
  23. Jopal78
    I’d mention Juan Soto, while merely a rental, is on a hall of fame track with his production, Burnes, meanwhile, is a very good starting pitcher but wouldn’t be on anyone’s Hall of Fame watch list right now. Finally, the days of getting a young John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander or a young Brian Giles for Ricardo Rincon are over. Even the most aggressive teams don’t trade their best blue chippers for veterans anymore.
  24. Jopal78
    That’s a huge IF though, even in a loaded draft class it’s a crapshoot after the first 15-20 picks. Further, the Brewers have made a lot of selections, supplemental or otherwise, near the back of the first round with pretty underwhelming results. Jake Odorizzi (#32 in ‘08) Mitch Haniger (#38 in ‘12) being the best of the bunch, though neither ever played for the Brewers. Evan Fredrickson was #35 overall in ‘08, Kentrail Davis #39 in ‘09, Henry Gatewood #41 in ‘14, Nathan Kirby #40 in ‘15 and Tristen Lutz was #34 overall in ‘17; none of them saw major league action. Ethan Small was #28 in ‘19 and just got DFA’d. I’m not knocking the trade, but really it’s two players and an extra roll of the dice for Corbin Burnes.
  25. Jopal78
    Maybe they use their new surplus money to sign as many vets as they can to one year deals: Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu ,JD Martinez, etc. Make the talent drop off somewhat less.
×
×
  • Create New...