Jopal78

Where did they finish this year? 7th amongst 15 teams. I get it: counting stats (especially homers) are cool. But the Brewers tried having a bunch of players with a sub .320 OBP and 30 homers, and the teams was not good enough to make the post season despite having a Cy Young winner fronting their rotation. Why try the same thing next year and expect different results? There’s no guarantee their pitching will be more healthy next year.

Sure, maybe they demonstrated tremendous power with runners in scoring position and were awful at not making outs. After all they did hit a lot of homeruns. There’s a formula to argue any point. The team kind of sucked in ‘22. Of the teams that were actually trying to win they finished dead last. In a league where 40% of the teams make the post season, Renfroe was indisputably king on a team that was an also ran. I don’t believe because he was the best slugger on a mediocre team, the Brewers should automatically punch his ticket for ‘23, especially when there are few paths to get better in ‘23 without spending more money.

I admit, I don’t know wRC+ could very well be accurate. However I do know if I gave you a stat sheet of the ‘22 Brewers you wouldn’t be able to tell me their wRC+. Theres seemingly a formula to prove any statistical point one wants to make.

Like I said it’s a billion dollar industry where players are willing to shoot chemicals in their arms to get an edge; executives risk going to prison seeking an edge in illegally exploiting signing Latin American players. Yet some dude has an algorithm that is 95% accurate in determining trade values and he lets MLB teams use it for free and nobody has purchased it from him yet. HA HA… it’s baloney.

Yep, Renfroe is lord amongst the losers that were the ‘22 Brewers especially in terms of an impossible to calculate “weighted runs created” There’s seemingly an impossible to calculate analytic to say every player is awesome. Pin a medal on him.

The New York Times bought Wordle after like 6 months. If that trade values website wasn’t complete garbage it would have been snapped up by someone by now. That’s the way the world works, especially if it’s possible it could give some team an edge. Moreover, professional baseball is a billion dollar industry. If anyone with half a brain stumbles upon an algorithm that was reasonably reliable for evaluating MLB trades why would they ever give their information away for free?

Again, use logic. If they needed to “check their work” it implies this jamoke has a better algorithm and with millions of dollars and careers at stake someone would have bought it from him by now.

I like the creativity but this team probably wins 80 games.

Yep, and they’ll never know until they try. Like I’ve said there aren’t a lot of paths to get better without adding a ton of payroll (which is not going to happen). There’s nothing wrong with Renfroe, but he gave them everything they could’ve hoped for in ‘22 and finished 7th out of 15 teams.

Yet, no team has purchased it and made it their property to the exclusion of the other teams, AND the proprietor apparently continues to let MLB teams use it for free despite it being 94.8% accurate. Doesn't wash, but hey whatever maybe baseball is filled with a bunch of idiots after all.

I don't dislike Renfroe, but he is what he is: a pure slugger who doesn't walk much, or hit for average. While he's certainly not the only one who fits that description, he does play for a team that went 19-30 when they didn't homer, and were near the bottom of the pile in terms of hitting with runners on base and runners in scoring position. Now couple that with the fact, he's the easiest player to move on from: he makes significant money, has little to no upside, and plays a position where they Brewers have two former first round picks and others in AAA. They could always attempt to trade Renfroe, but then again most contending teams would have tepid interest because of their current RF situation (Betts, Acuna, Soto, Marte, Harper, Kyle Tucker, Oscar Gonzalez, Teoscar Hernandez, Nootbaar, etc) and the non-contenders are probably not taking on that type of contract. The difference between Renfroe and the pitchers Suter and Houser is they're more valuable and make substantially less money. Any team can use a lefty swing man like Suter with a career WHIP of 1.21 with a 3:1 walk to strike out ratio. Houser suffered a shoulder injury in 2022 and had a bad season, but he still could be a #5 starter on just about every contender and probably as high as a #3 starter on a bad team, and he has multiple years of team control remaining. I could be wrong but I'd bet both of those pitchers are in the Brewers' plans for '23, and if not they would certainly be able to trade them before having to non-tender them. We'll see what happens at catcher. The Padres sent the Brewers cash in the deal for Caratini to off-set his 2 million dollar salary, so I really don't see Milwaukee handing him a raise after he kind of sucked for them in '22. Obviously, they're not likely going sign two new free agent catchers. And they've thought well enough of Feliciano to keep him on their 40 man roster the last two years. What seems most logical is they sign a #1 and bring in some NRI veterans to compete with Feliciano for the #2 spot. As for Benintendi, yeah IF the Brewers could sign two major free agent players, he'd be a good get despite the fact he plays LF. It wouldn't block anyone, and he's a very different player than Renfroe. He doesn't bring the thunder like Hunter, but he doesn't strike out a ton and is above average at getting on base. That's the whole point: the '22 Brewers were an average team with a bunch of sluggers with below average on-base skills. Since they were an "also ran" with that approach in '22 maybe they should try something else next year.

The thing you fail to repeatedly see in all of this is: the difference between even a .740-.750 OPS outfielder and Renfroe at .790-.800 is not worth the difference in price between $700K and 11 million dollars. In a team like the Brewers with limited financial resources, tremendous outfield depth in AAA, that's a pretty big chunk of cash for a player who is ok, but is and has been at his ceiling as a .790-.800 OPS outfielder. Since they have 4 players in AAA who most likely could step in and play competently at the MLB level; one way to become more talented without trading away a key major league player or minor league depth is to reallocate the money they would otherwise pay Renfroe as a portion of an offer to a free agent hitter like Jose Abreu who could play 1B or DH, where the Brewers do not have depth. As for Benintendi, you should read more carefully what I wrote. First of all, I don't think the numbers would work anyways. But if if they did nobody would be blocked as Benintendi would play LF, Yelich to DH, Abreu to 1B and two outfield spots open for their young players. I could be wrong but I believe the Brewers will look to become more balanced and move away from having a collection of players with big time power and poor on base skills. Abreu fits that bill, if they could afford two free agents, Benintendi would as well. I'll largely disregard your comments about Suter and Houser except that the Brewers likely won't non-tender either of them. I assume both are in their plans of 2023, but if they are not, they would have zero trouble trading either or both of them. As for Feliciano, he's been in the organization since 2016, and has been on the 40 man roster since Nov. of '20; it's basically now or never for him with the Brewers.

I think Abreu+Frelick produces more than Renfroe would in '23. Christian Vazquez is better offensively and defensively than Caratini but is a few years older...so there is some risk there but Vazquez with Feliciano as the #2 can't be worse than Narvaez/Caratini. Would like to be better at 3B than a Peterson/Brosseau platoon, but absent a trade it's not going to happen. I also am not sure if they would have Turang break in as a utility player, or fill that spot with a bargain bin veteran so Turang can play every day in AAA. One other option would be to move on from Renfroe, Tellez, Suter. Stick with Caratini, Abreu at 1B, Yelich at DH, and Benintendi in LF, but keeping below 130 would be iffy. ? Christian Vazquez ($7.50M) 1B: Rowdy Tellez ($5.50M) 2B: Luis Urias ($4.50M) 3B: Jace Peterson ($2.50M) SS: Willy Adames ($9.50M) LF: Christian Yelich ($22.00M) CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.70M) RF: Sal Frelick ($0.7M) DH: Jose Abreu ($18.0M) 4th OF: Tyrone Taylor ($0.7M) Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.00M) Utility: Brice Turang ($0.70M) Backup ? Mario Feliciano ($0.70M) SP1: Corbin Burnes ($11.50M) SP2: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M) SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M) SP4: Eric Lauer ($5.00M) SP5: Adrian Houser ($3.50M) RP: Brent Suter ($3.00M) RP: Peter Strzelecki ($.7M) RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M) RP: Trevor Gott ($1.40M) RP: Hoby Milner ($1.00M) RP: Devin Williams ($4.00M) RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.20M) RP: Jake Cousins ($.7M) Payroll is 5.77% under budget

All I’m saying is, it would be a pretty bad trip through free agency for Mitch Haniger if he had to settle for a 5 million dollar payday. These proposals are fun, but there’s no probablility to a hypothesis where a quality veteran hitter signs somewhere for less than 10 million, and I think that number will track even higher this off season due to a weaker free agent class. And yes, the difference in production in my opinion between Mitchell/Frelick and Hunter Renfroe isn’t worth 11 million. The Brewers would improve their team more rolling with one of those rookies in RF, moving on from Renfroe and adding using that 11 million as part of an offer for a DH/1B like Jose Abreu, than simply running it back with Renfroe in ‘23.

Not a chance.

Haniger would get at least three times what you have as a hypothetical salary.

My bad, it was Nate82. Nate82..Brewcrew82... you see the similarity. Anyways, Hiura couldn't get off the bench on a mediocre team in '22, obviously his adjustments whatever they were, didn't cure what's wrong with him. But more importantly, Oakland is just not in a place in the success cycle where it makes any sense for them to trade pre-arbitration eligible pitching for hitters, especially flawed ones like Hiura. As with any team in the midst of a long rebuild, I'm sure they would trade Puk in the right deal, but it won't be for Hiura and certainly not straight up. As for Treinen it's simple, if he's worth ten million as a free agent (as you propose) why wouldn't the Dodgers simply exercise their below market club option for 8 million and either trade him or keep him. Either way they would come out better than they would if they declined his option.

I like the creativity.... but with the Hader trade the Brewers just learned in '22 it is extremely difficult to "shuffle the deck" trading away a star player and get better at the same time. The weak spot is there is not away for the Brewers to get better that involves trading an indisputable ace, top of the rotation starting pitcher like Corbin Burnes. No matter what comes out of Stearns's mouth at the media podium: trading Burnes = rebuilding. Moreover, the Brewers owner isn't a dope, when they don't have the horses to compete payroll gets taken down to the bone. ( see '16, '`17 et al).

Treinen has a club option for '23 for 8 million. Not likely the Dodgers decline an 8 million dollar option if Treinen is worth 10 million as a free agent. As mentioned to you before in other threads, the Athletics wouldn't trade Puk for Hiura straight up. They are not in a position to win '23 so there is not much reason for them to take on salary (Hiura in arb, Puk pre-arb) and then trade away the player with the most team control remaining in the process.

Right. Taking 3 out of the final 4 from the Cards would put Milwaukee 4 GB. Next, the Brewers have 2 extra games remaining than St. Louis. Theoretically if the Brewers won them both it would put them 3 GB. Thus, out playing St. Louis by three games over the final 30 seems doable. No less importantly taking 3 of the final 4 against the Cardinals would give the Brewers the season series (10-9) and the tie break for the Division.

Right. Taking 3 out of the final 4 from the Cards would put Milwaukee 4 GB. Next, the Brewers have 2 extra games remaining than St. Louis. Theoretically if the Brewers won them both it would put them 3 GB. Thus, out playing St. Louis by three games over the final 30 seems doable. No less importantly taking 3 of the final 4 against the Cardinals would give the Brewers the season series (10-9) and the tie break for the Division.

I think they have as good a shot as any at Wild Card #2 and Wild Card #3 (especially with their best starter Zach Wheeler, and two best bullpen pitchers (Knebel and Dominguez) on the DL. The Brewers are now 6 games out of first, with only 4 remaining against St. Louis. Both teams have just 13 games remaining against winning teams but the Brewers have 39 total games remaining to the Cardinals' 37. The Brewers chances for the Division for all intents and purposes hang on the remaining four games with the Cardinals. Short of taking at least 3 of 4 of those remaining games they don't have a realistic path to the Division title.

I think they have as good a shot as any at Wild Card #2 and Wild Card #3 (especially with their best starter Zach Wheeler, and two best bullpen pitchers (Knebel and Dominguez) on the DL. The Brewers are now 6 games out of first, with only 4 remaining against St. Louis. Both teams have just 13 games remaining against winning teams but the Brewers have 39 total games remaining to the Cardinals' 37. The Brewers chances for the Division for all intents and purposes hang on the remaining four games with the Cardinals. Short of taking at least 3 of 4 of those remaining games they don't have a realistic path to the Division title.

Probably because Mejia is 25, a pitcher, and someone who they thought well enough of to trade for in the off-season. Coming off a suspension he hasn’t pitched in months so he needs to get stretched out. As for Reetz, the Narvaez injury and Severino DFA goofed up their depth, but Omar is going to be back on Saturday, I believe Severino is with AAA as a non-roster player, so they don’t necessarily need Reetz as much as they did his roster spot. I don’t follow the minor leagues close enough to know, has Cousins pitched in back to back games? Coming off an elbow injury I’m sure they want to ramp him up slowly but he needs to be able to go in back to back days to be in this bullpen. Probably one of their September adds.

Probably because Mejia is 25, a pitcher, and someone who they thought well enough of to trade for in the off-season. Coming off a suspension he hasn’t pitched in months so he needs to get stretched out. As for Reetz, the Narvaez injury and Severino DFA goofed up their depth, but Omar is going to be back on Saturday, I believe Severino is with AAA as a non-roster player, so they don’t necessarily need Reetz as much as they did his roster spot. I don’t follow the minor leagues close enough to know, has Cousins pitched in back to back games? Coming off an elbow injury I’m sure they want to ramp him up slowly but he needs to be able to go in back to back days to be in this bullpen. Probably one of their September adds.