RollieTime

I really don’t see Stearns giving up 6 years with 3 at minimum of a guy who could contend as the top second baseman in the game. I would think Urias is here to play SS to replace the black hole we had there and not to replace the (upcoming) all-star second baseman. I don’t think it’s even realistic to think of what it would take to get him. Moving him for guys already making millions wouldn’t make sense. It would have to be a team with like 3 big time MLB contributors willing to move them that all have a ton of cheap control. Which would totally hamper their own chance to win. Hiura is one of those guys that’s pretty much impossible to move because of just how much talent another team would need to give up. Hader is a much more realistic player to move in my opinion.

I noticed the thread was closed already before I could chime in, but this is kind of where I am. Stearns and the Brewers always keep things close to the vest. And with “rival executives” telling him they “undoubtedly” would have a lower payroll, I didn’t know Stearns and Mark A go around telling the other GM’s what their payroll cap is. “We plan on spending $110 million this year and no more!”. Yeah, that makes no sense. Them slashing payroll is to replace their marginal and negative value guys with higher upside, higher floor guys, and possibly make a push for a big name TOR pitcher or all-star caliber bat to pair with Yelich and Hiura. They had so much dead weight from marginal talent last year that they need some fresh blood brought in.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28216818/mookie-lindor-arenado-players-should-mlb-offseason-trade-talks I don’t recall Cain ever being specifically mentioned as a trade possibility until now, but it seems like the Brewers are at least open to the idea of moving Cain this offseason. Whether it’ll happen will remain to be seen, but that would be quite an interesting development.

I bet if you look at the price of an artificial Christmas tree from 15 years ago to now, the price is higher too. Those darn “boomers”!! Buying all those fake trees and causing the price to rise! Everything becomes more and more expensive in life. Whether that’s new vehicle prices, bills, food, you name it. It’s just how companies and businesses operate.

I don’t think they should trade for Thor unless there is much more coming back. Why go all in on a 2 year window instead of bringing in guys with 5+ years of control like McNeil ++? I would rather have a long 7 year competitive window at the LEAST (including our last 2 years) by trading for guys like McNeil, Smith etc. and adding them to Yelich, Woodruff, Hiura, and Urias and being a very good team for a long time than going all in for 2 years and trading off for a rebuild.

I agree. The Brewers would be getting a franchise altering return that could set us up for the foreseeable future. Hit on a couple guys that you’ll have for 5+ year and you’ll have a very strong and young nucleus to build around with the guys we already have here. The McNeil/Smith is a good starting point. I would still ask for more (because why not?). I do think you talk to the Dodgers though and ask for a Lux and Smith/Ruiz return. Hader should be fetching a top 10 prospect (that is MLB ready) if moved or a ton of MLB talent such as McNeil and Smith as well as a couple highly regarded prospects in the 50-100 range. The Brewers have no need to trade Hader right now. Stearns is in the driver seat. Don’t want to match the ask? Enjoy overspending on relievers that are more expensive and less dominant while you blow a game late in the postseason because you went with True Value instead of legit Haderade.

I think Urias’ floor is of what Arcia has been for his career at the majors. If he hits .240/.340/.700, he will be a pretty big upgrade over Arcia. He doesn’t have much of a bar he needs to clear unfortunately. Interested to see the outcomes of Shaw, Nelson, Guerra (officially), and Arcia today. Wouldn’t surprise me to see the Brewers mentioned in a trade of one of these guys today.

I am curious where he said this? He seems like an ideal candidate to try to convert to a 1B given his relative uninspiring D at OF/3B. If the Brewers could afford it, which I think they can, signing him and Moose to play the corners would lead to a beautifully constructed lineup now that they also have Urias. 1. Cain 2. Yelich 3. Hiura 4. Moose 5. Castellanos 6. Braun 7. Urias 8. Pina The more I think about this, the more I think Castellanos would be a great bat to add to the middle of the lineup. This lineup looks like a bunch of runs to me! With him being so young, you could sign him to a 5 year deal and that still only takes him through his age 32 season. He’s one of those guys I think Stearns will explore bringing in given his age and the Brewers’ need for an impact bat that won’t break the bank. Also, does anyone have a picture of his batted balls at Comerica Park from last season or even 2018 and can lay it over Miller Park? Not sure where to find that or how to do it. But I am interested in seeing if he would turn a few of those doubles into home runs at Miller Park and could possibly be a guy that hits .285 with 30 homers and 35+ doubles per season if playing half his games at Miller Park.

Howie Kendrick could be a really nice, versatile piece to add for a couple years at a reasonable price because of his age. I think Howie Kendrick is my top target bat this offseason. He’s a guy that could be had for a one or two year deal, most likely at or under $10 million, and you get a guy that doesn’t strikeout much and is a great middle of the order bat. Doesn’t have a ton of pop, but does everything else well. With Urias brought in and adding a guy like Kendrick, the only real holes left on the roster are third base on the hitting side and the rest of the money could be poured into the rotation and bullpen. If Kendrick and Moose are brought in, we are looking at a very good lineup. Cain/Urias Hiura Yelich Kendrick Moose Braun Urias/Cain Pina P If you could get those two for ~$22 million or so, the rest of the $20-$35 million (depending on tender/non-tender decisions) could be put toward pitching. That leaves a lot of room to bring in 2 solid rotation arms as well as a bullpen piece.

I thought it would be beneficial to list the salaries for Brewers players and their projected arby raises to get an idea of where their payroll situation is realistically at. Below is what I came up. I believe I have every player listed that could realistically make the roster Opening Day. Position Players Braun $17 million Cain $16 million Yelich $12.5 million Hiura $500K Arcia (Arb. $2.7 million) Urias $500K Pina $1.8 million Shaw (Arb. $4.7 million) Gamel (Arb. $1.6 million) Total $57.3 million Rotation Woodruff $500K Lauer $500K Houser $500K Total $1.5 million Bullpen Hader $5 million Knebel (Arb. $5.2 million) Nelson (Arb. $3.7 million) Guerra (Arb. $3.5 million) Claudio (Arb. $2.2 million) Suter $1 million Peralta $500K Feyereisen $500K Total $21.6 million Other Options (not included on payroll list) D. Guerra $500K D. Williams $500K Wahl $500K Faria $500K Burnes $500K Black $500K Buyouts/Deferred Payments Thames $1 million Moustakas $3 million Grandal $2.25 million Garza $2 million Total $8.25 million $57.3 + $1.5 + $21.6 + $8.25 = $88.65 Million Payroll I am not sure if buyouts and deferred payments are included in the payroll, but I did it for this exercise. Factoring in all of the arby raises, our payroll is around $88.65 million, roughly $40 million below payroll in 2019. If the Brewers decide to let Guerra ($3.5 million, sounds likely he’s gone), Nelson ($3.7 million, toss up but I think he’s gone), Shaw ($4.7 million, toss up but I think he is gone), and Arcia ($2.7 million, toss up but I think they tender him and trade him or trade him prior to the tender/non-tender deadline), they could have an additional $14.6 million freed up on their payroll. Which is not an insignificant amount of money. That would drop their payroll down to $74.05 million, giving them roughly $55 million to spend to reach last year’s season ending payroll. Just thought it would be a good exercise to get people on the same page of where their payroll situation is at currently and to help with people thinking of creating or revising their offseason plans.

Thank you for the response. I do think that elite relievers do fetch more than their value is listed for just because teams know how important it is having a multi inning pen arm that will shut down the other team, especially in the postseason. Hader is in a one of a kind situation with the amount of control, below market value salary, strikeout prowess, and multi inning ability that he brings to the table (if they were to entertain a trade).

Typically, the person just doesn't get to post here anymore. Fair enough, thank you.

I know some of you guys have legit information. Is there a way that once the higher ups here gain the knowledge on these discussions, that they can come back and make a post to verify or debunk these posts that are mostly stated as fact so the other posters here can have an idea of who is actually providing legit information and not just trolling to stir the pot? Maybe even create a designated thread with your findings on certain posters? I think it would be extremely helpful to have you guys find out and come back and let people know if information is true or fabricated from certain posters. And hopefully if people are stating things as fact and are just making stuff up, that they quickly find themselves out the door.

Anyone else wonder if this is another account by the infamous HighHeat19??? This is why I’m not feeding into this. Or the guy that said he had a feeling about a Padres trade. We all have random feelings for possible trades between teams and can all state things about a team or players. Just because something happens a week later doesn’t mean people actually have information. Not saying the guy that mentioned the Padres trade doesn’t have information, but falling into that trap here that people did before leads to a lot of nonsense. If he has information, awesome! I hope he comes out and states that he does and can provide some insight once in a while. But people aren’t going to have much in-depth information on what they are doing. And if they are sharing it anywhere, the organization will weed people out. Really? The organization will be shocked to not have Smoak at first? Even though he’s a free agent currently and can sign with whoever he wants, but the Brewers are confident he’s coming here? Plus, you already know their plan B option? And the details of the Grandal contract and Stearns’ exact reason why he didn’t want to match it? I mean come on. We don’t need this crap around here again. People shouldn’t even feed into this.

What new "data" is there, other than they don't want to accept that one team fleeced another? If the model is adjusted to try and equalize any trade that goes through, I think that undercuts its value. (Edit: though I apologize for the flippant tone, as I didn't realize the actual author would be reading the thread My ire isn't directed at your particular analysis, just the fact that nobody will seem to acknowledge that the Brewers just pulled over a massive swindle.) I agree with all of this. Then someone like Brendan Rodgers (MLB #14 Prospect) should have a greatly reduced value since he did so poorly in his first 75 at bats or so. Not quite to the point of losing his prospect status, but definitely was overmatched and struggled. I just don’t think they lose their value that quickly based on such a small sample. The Brewers absolutely fleeced the Padres with how the trade looks today. If Urias doesn’t become anything then yeah the Padres won the trade. But as it sits today, the Brewers easily got the better side of the deal and it’s not particularly close. I have a sincere question for you on something that makes absolutely no sense to me. Hiura’s highest ranking on baseball prospectus was 6th in MLB. His current value on your website is 73.2. The number 7 prospect (RHP Casey Mize) is at 66.4. The number 6 prospect currently (C Adley Rutschman) has a value of 88.3. The number 5 prospect (OF Jo Adell) has a value of 96.4. All Hiura did was hit over .300 in his first half season at the MLB level while hitting 19 homers. If he was ranked 6th, how in the world did his value drop since all he did was come up and rake to the tune of being a borderline all-star? At the MLB level and not just in the minor leagues?! He’s still controlled for 6 years, proven to be an all-star talent at the highest level, and at a position with very few great hitters, and his value decreased? Also, Carter Kieboom is the number 20th ranked prospect in baseball and he’s valued at 83.8. Obviously you have your own rankings for players, but some of these values don’t jive. Especially Hader having a value of 48.3. 4 years of control still at well below market rate for the back to back relief pitcher of the year? I know placing values on relievers is tough, but I don’t see any way his value isn’t at least in the 75-100 range. If he is traded, he’s bringing an absolute haul. And I am sure that a trade of him would have the values much in the Brewers’ favor based on his current value on the site.

This definitely does open up a possible Turang involvement in a trade as well. Just something to keep an eye on and explore as we continue through the offseason discussing trades. He’s very much in play now if used to acquire a big piece. Urias isn’t a lock, but he’s going to be given 2-3 years to figure it out. Heck, if he hits .250 with an OBP of .330 and plays good defense, he could be a 3-4 WAR player. He was already a 1 WAR player last year hitting .220 in only about 1/3 of a season’s worth of atbats.

I agree! Rendon and Wheeler would be a fantastic offseason. I was hoping a big right handed bat would be brought in to protect Yelich and who better to add than Rendon? Maybe find a way to add a guy like Avisail Garcia or Nicholas Castellanos depending on available funds and they could have a nasty lineup!

Love the enthusiasm but we saved $7 million, not $60 million. This pushes our available payroll to between $45-$50 million below last year’s as it sits already. Not including possible trades or non-tenders of Shaw, Arcia, Guerra among others. Anyway, love the trade. This is what has to be done to create an extended window beyond the three years it looked like we had. Woodruff, Hader, Lauer, Urias, and Hiura are all part of making that possible. This is one of those moves that helps us now and in the future. I think Urias will be at SS and Arcia is gone. Save the money there and receive the same production as Arcia at the absolute worst, but with a ton of upside and making the minimum. Urias’ ceiling is extremely high. Also, our rotation of Woodruff, Houser, and Lauer as it sits is going to see some improvement. If they go cheap there, they absolutely are making a run for a big time bat or two. If they continue to have cheaper options for their everyday bats, they will spend a ton on the rotation. They still have holes at first or outfield (depending on Braun‘s situation) and third and that’s it. Arguably 5 or 6 of the 8 spots in the field not including pitcher are most likely set. The money will be spent somewhere. With all of these moves gaining cheap young talent, I have to believe it’ll be spent in one of those areas. The catching market does not have a high value guy anymore. Honestly this is is just making me way more excited to think we are going to make a real play for one of the top starting pitchers on the market and/or make a serious run at someone like Rendon.

Absolutely love this trade! Brewers also save roughly $4 million more now, and depending on what happens with Arcia, it could be almost $7 million saved. We traded a mid rotation pitcher with 2 years of control left and a mostly minor leaguer that has struggled his entire career other than for a couple months last season for a back of the rotation arm that has some upside with I believe 5 years of control and a SS prospect that was ranked 16th in MLB prior to last year that has 6 years of control. Stearns absolutely fleeced the Padres on this trade! I think Arcia will be moved now and that something big is still on the horizon. Big time third baseman, starting pitcher, or possibly outfielder is all in play right now. Heck, a couple might be coming! Anthony Rendon or Stephen Strasburg anyone!? Man what an exciting move this was!!

I love Braun, but moving Yelich to left where he won his gold glove and putting Braun at first would be beneficial defensively while also adding a guy that can cover some ground in right field who is an above average right fielder. So it would theoretically improve two outfield spots for $6 million. Thames could hit 30 homers for you, but strikes out 35% of the time and is probably gonna hit around .240 for you. Braun will strikeout roughly 23% of the time at first, while adding an outfielder that could hit .280-.300, be a 20/20 threat, playing above average defense, and also strikes out 25-26% of the time. We become a faster and better outfield while adding a bat that is a much better all around hitter and strikes out 10% less than the guy he would be replacing as well. Depends if you want more dingers or an all around better hitter, improved defense in the outfield, and a guy that will strikeout 10% less than the guy he is replacing. Cain Hiura Yelich Moose Garcia Gregorius Braun Pina P Sign me up for this! You could probably get Moose, Gregorius, and Garcia for $32-$34 million combined. Let Arcia, Shaw, and Guerra walk and you can put all the rest of the available money toward someone like Wheeler or split it up and bring in a good starter and reliever. That lineup would absolutely be better overall and much more consistent than last years.

That would still leave plenty of room for them to explore a great starting pitcher like Wheeler as well as I assume Moose and Didi would cost roughly $25-$27 million between the two. I do hope they bring in someone like Avisail Garcia for the outfield though and don’t totally hand the keys to Grisham without some type of good fallback option.

Avisaíl García is one of those under the radar guys in this free agent market that I think could be a nice addition for a team like the Brewers. Garcia hit a robust .330 in 2017, but followed that up with a significant drop in performance in 2018 while battling a hamstring injury and never fully getting on track. In 2019, he followed up his poor 2018 by hitting .282, 20 homeruns, and an OPS around .800 while being an average to above average right fielder. He would be a good and relatively cheap target as an everyday right fielder, moving Yelich over to left full time and moving Braun to first. It also gives Grisham a shot to get his feet wet and gives us a backup plan incase he never gets it going in 2019. García is projected to only get a 2/$12 million contract and won’t turn 29 until midseason 2020. One interesting note is that even though his career high in stolen bases is 10, he’s in the 87th percentile in average sprint speed. Tied with Cody Bellinger and ahead of Christian Yelich. For being 6’4 and weighing 250 pounds, he can really move. If he came to Milwaukee and was given a full time gig, I think he could realistically put up a 20/20 season and possibly push a 25/25 season if all goes well. He could fill in at the top of the order or slot in as a solid 5 or 6 hole hitter to lengthen the lineup while not breaking the bank. Plus, moving Braun to first full time will fill another hole, allowing us to allocate resources towards 3B, a bullpen arm, possibly SS, and a starter or two.

This Ravens offense is so electric. I don’t see how anyone could slow them down at this point. They are going against the 4th best rush defense in the NFL and they have 20 rushes for 173 yards in the FIRST HALF! Anyone else remember how scouts were worried that he was an inaccurate quarterback which lead to his stock dropping to the back of the first round even though he was obviously the most physically gifted QB of the class? The man was a freak of nature and it transitioned flawlessly to the NFL. He won’t be able to run like this forever, but man is he going to be a special talent to watch for 7-10 years while he can blow by anybody on the field. He makes defenders look absolutely silly in open space.

Okay, Woodruff, Yelich, Hader and Hiura is all we got. I did say that they will likely try to piece together a good team this year, and when that happens I'll be optimistic once the games start. Right now is not that time though. Right now I want to turn those 4 guys into 8 guys like them by 2024, cuz getting to a WS (let alone winning a WS) just isn't going to happen with those 4 guys, spare parts and our current farm system. I don't look at it as doom and gloom, I look at it as optimism for 2023 and beyond! The issue with this statement is that of those 8 guys you acquire, 4-5 become regular major leaguers with hoping 2-3 are all-stars. We have 3-4 all-stars on the roster right now between Yelich, Hader, Woodruff, and (arguably) Hiura. With all of them controlled for a minimum of 3 years still. Plus, most of the guys you would acquire won’t be solid or good regulars their first year or two anyway. Now the future window you’re talking about is down to 3-4 years, which is basically where we are at right now. Also, Stearns and his guys need to do a better job of drafting and bringing in talent through the draft. They obviously do a superb job in identifying flaws in guys already at the MLB level and turning some of them into positive contributors. But the amount of talent brought in through the draft and in international signings has been underwhelming. I would say the last couple have been better in that we have a lot of intriguing arms in the lower minor leagues, but they are still multiple years away and our entire minors is pretty void of bats outside of a couple guys. The upper minors really does not have much talent for pitching or bats that will be big time contributors for the Brewers. Obviously Yelich cost us a ton, but there has been nobody that has replaced those guys as of yet. On a similar and yet different note, drafting Ray over Puk was one I never understood. We had arguably the top pitching prospect fall into our lap at the 5 slot and we passed on him. Now, instead of having a lefty that throws upper 90’s and has the makings of being similar to Hader and making the minimum for 3 years for us, we have a guy who is running out of time to figure it out (and is already 25 and still hasn’t cracked the MLB!). Back to your point partially here, if we had Puk, that would possibly give us the option to move Hader now. Get someone like Lux for 6 years, move Hader and his increasing salary, bring in Betances to replace Hader and his salary, retain Pomeranz, and have Puk, Suter, and Knebel still while adding a shortstop on the cheap. Lots of what ifs, but it’s something that could of been done and would have us sitting in a much better place right now. I do agree though that we could move Hader now, freeing up $5-6 million to add another piece while gaining a couple legit MLB prospects to help extend the window now. Because after the three year window as it sits, we have Woodruff for 1 year, Hader for 1, and Hiura for 3. That is not enough. We need more talent, but a full rebuild is risky and I don’t think will get us to where we need to be for at least 5 years. Maintaining a long competitive window happens by trading a piece from the MLB roster sometimes, bringing in controllable talent, and adding them to the mix (while removing the traded players’ salary to bring in someone else to replace an additional need). Sorry for the long reply and multiple tangents. It kind of all ties together though.

I have to agree that I don’t believe Packers fans are entitled. I think it is totally reasonable to say that the Packers should have more than 2 Super Bowl victories in about 30 years of having arguably 2 of the top 5 quarterbacks in the history of the NFL. Just like Brees should have more than 1 in his career. It’s just an observation and statement that even though there can only be 1 winner each year, some teams should just have more than 1 with how many years they have a top 5 QB in the game. Even Eli Manning led the Giants to two since Rodgers has been a starter. He definitely isn’t anything special. And certainly didn’t have great seasons the two years they won it. Obviously having a great quarterback gets you to the postseason more often, but you need some help on offense and defense (and some good coaching/innovative play calling) and a GM to get you the guys you need. And that’s where we went wrong is the lack of talent around Rodgers for arguably the last 5-7 years outside of one or maybe two offensive threats each year on offense and a pretty void defense for the better part of that same time period.