Ron Robinsons Beard

Something tells me that this move indicates that the Marlins are asking for the moon for Realmuto. The Nationals made a ton of sense to make that trade, but instead they are going with a platoon of Suzuki and Gomes. It's already been confirmed by multiple credible insiders that the Marlins asked the Nats for Soto or Robles, which qualifies as asking for the moon. Honestly I think it's worth the gamble for the Marlins to hold out for a really good offer. The Woodruff + Ray + Nottingham type of offers will always be there, and those probably represent minor incremental improvements for their organization. It would be overly simplistic to say his trade value goes down the longer they hold on to him. For one thing, the market could change drastically in either direction at any time. For another thing, it would probably be more accurate to say that it becomes less and less likely that they'll get a king's ransom for him the longer they wait, but that's not the same as losing trade value - at least not in the sense that they run the risk of not being able to get the type of offer in August that we're all hoping they'll accept now. I just don't see the point for them to accept the type of offer that they could probably get from 10 different teams any time they want in the next year, barring an injury to Realmuto. So they may as well ask too much and hope someone bites. I guess I should have added the term "currently" to my post. The Soto and Robles asks go back to last season, if not the offseason. While not totally impossible, I don't know if those guys are still the asks for Realmuto now. You are right, though, that they don't need to trade him, so they can hold out for someone to get desperate and throw a godfather offer at them.

Except *this* isn't what you're saying. You're fabricating evidence and lying about trivial nonsense to put Peralta on a pedestal because your Uncle is an ex-scout and you take his *opinion* as gold. Examples: my post laying out your lies on the Woodruff/Peralta thread. This thread - Woodruff isn't 4yrs older than Peralta. He's 3yrs 3 months and 20 some odd days older. The difference between reality and 4yrs is literally an additional full season's worth of experience. Regarding prospect rankings, Peralta absolutely was on the radar during Woodruff's peak status (43-62 ranking mid-2017/pre-2018). Peralta already had a very good A then ever better A+ (mid-2017) then even better AA (pre-2018) while being 2-3yrs young for level and he made *zero* Top 100. Woodruff's peak prospect status is literally the same time frame when Peralta blew up. And those pub rankings are heavily influenced by *active* scouts opinions. On the opinion side, I disagree Woodruff's age puts him on a tier below Peralta as they both have 6yrs control, especially considering one of them (Peralta) still has control issues and needs to develop consistency with his secondary pitches while the other (Woodruff) is essentially a finished product with good control. You also stated on this thread that *both* of Peralta's fastballs (same fourseam grip on both) are thrown *equally*. Except there's *zero* evidence to back that claim. Now on to varying success going through the lineup multiple times. In the first 7 of Woodruff's 8 starts to end 2017 he averaged between 5.2 - 6 innings per start, with a 1.23 whip and 3.76 era, not to mention his entire minor league career as a rotation arm on top of that. In 2018 he was shuffled nonstop between the rotation/pen and AAA/MLB so he rarely had a consistent role until the final month of the season and playoffs. There's gaps with his pitching dates and amount of pitches because in order for his role to work they needed to limit what he can do at times. In the meantime, Peralta was a starter all year and 5 of his 14 MLB starts he threw between 3 - 4.1 innings with a 6th start going 6 innings giving up 7er (if they didn't need him to eat up innings so badly he would've been pulled at 4.2 innings giving up 6er, if not sooner). So you don't question Peralta at all going multiple times through the order based on *half* of his MLB starts this year but you definitively state Woodruff can't? Peralta has proven success but Woodruff doesn't? (Side note for people saying Woodruff hasn't proven anything as a starter and reference his overall line - in 10 of his 12 MLB starts he's combined to post 53.1ip, 43h, 21er, 21bb, 43k, 3.54 era, 1.2 whip and that doesn't include his 2 starts in the playoffs this year where he combined 8.1ip, 5h, 3er, 2bb, 11k.....all these young guys are going to get roughed up here and there and Woodruff did vs CO this year and his 8th/final start in STL the year before and those 2 games alone ballooned the living beep out of his numbers. Woodruff has been more consistent with his starts, including playoffs, than Peralta has). On this thread you said Peralta improved his BB9 from 4.2 to 1.3 on his *rapid ascent*. False. That happened in 2014/2015 when he was in Rookie ball and repeating levels has nothing to do with improving control. What level one's at, who's standing in the box, etc has no impact on one's control. And no, it isn't "very common" for players to improve control. Control literally makes and breaks careers and the past 2yrs Peralta has been between 4-5 BB9 at each level A+ and up. The reality is if he doesn't improve his BB9 rate to upper-3 or better at the MLB level he's going to continue to be inconsistent and not reach his potential. Look at the rotation arms with 20+ starts this year who had the most BBs and see how well the vast, vast majority of them performed. Peralta had a 1.3 in Rookie ball then a 3.6 in A but he's been 4-5 BB9 since. He can improve on where he's been because he's had decent control earlier in his career but to brush it off as if it's not a concern and there's no risk with him moving forward in absurd. And I say all this believing Peralta has better stuff and a higher ceiling than Woodruff but he has control issues right now that shouldn't be easily dismissed. Dude had a 4.6 BB9 in MLB throwing his fastball 78% of the time. That's absolutely brutal. His control will determine if he's great or if he's Teheran (AS caliber one year and average the next). Terrific post! He is 100% creating a narrative, and not only gets ultra defensive when questioned on it, or when someone disagrees, he gets extremely condescending. Then when questioned on that, he accuses others of creating drama. It's turned this board very negative lately. I agree on Peralta as well. I think he has a higher upside than Woodruff, but probably a lower floor as well. Also, if you view the Brewers as having a 3 year window of World Series contention, it can be argued that Woodruff's age and experience makes him a better fit to be a high-end contributor during that window. That could be 100% wrong, but just looking at how both were used during the stretch this year, that appears to be the direction they are headed. As for trading one of them, I think Peralta is more likely, but that is more based on his age than anything. Because he is younger and has already shown the ability to get MLB hitters out, it is likely his trade value is substantially higher than Woodruff's in a potential blockbuster-type deal (which are the ONLY type of deals Peralta's name is coming up in).

[sarcasm]Check in with your scout and get back to us on this one.[/sarcasm] +INFINITY

Something tells me that this move indicates that the Marlins are asking for the moon for Realmuto. The Nationals made a ton of sense to make that trade, but instead they are going with a platoon of Suzuki and Gomes. I would still love to be able to pencil Realmuto into the Brewers lineup for 110-120 games, with Pina getting the remaining 40-50, but unless the Marlins come down on their ask, its getting tougher to see.

He doesn't have interest because the Badgers are bad. I think stating that basically he lost interest because the Badgers did not even come close to meeting expectations, and are a bad football team, is pretty on point.

That's still an extremely small sample. LHB's have a career OPS of .583 against him. He is NOT a LOOGY who can't get lefties out. It just comes off as being mad because baseball happened and a handful of LHB's reached base against him at a bad time. He had a 2.43 era on the year with a 2.95 FIP and 1.26 WHIP. He faced more RHB's (though few of them were dangerous, I assume) than LHB's and held them to a .604 OPS. He allowed 7 singles and 3 walks in 8 innings in the regular season with the Brewers: Daniel Murphy - single to RF Zobrist (bats both, slightly better against LHP's) - walk Jeimer Candelario (bats both, much better against LHP's) - single to CF Patrick Wisdom (RHB) - single Matt Carpenter - walk Corey Dickerson - single Joey Votto - single Brandon Crawford - walk Zobrist - single Mark Reynolds - single He gave up 3 singles and a walk in 1 inning in the playoffs (let's judge his value based on 1 inning!!): Yasmani Grandal (bats both, better against RHP's) - single Joc Pederson - single Manny Machado (RHB) - intentional walk Max Muncy - single In case it's not totally obvious, the problem is that he faced some extraordinarily talented LHB's and some dangerous switch-hitters and RHB's as well. The other problem is judging him on an absurdly small sample. You can make the case that the presence of good switch-hitters and the rarity of having 2 or more LHB's in a row in the batting order makes LOOGY's a waste of a roster spot, but it comes off as really spoiled and petulant to act like Cedeno didn't do his job. No LHP gets every single LHB out every single time. Not even Hader. And definitely not when it includes the guys listed above. This is a really good post. I felt that for the most part, Cedeno did his job. The issue was that the few times he didn't were pretty big moments. Still, I am very surprised that he was non-tendered, given how the Brewers like to play matchups, and the dearth of lefty relievers currently available but on the roster and in the upper minors. Right now not only is Hader the only non-injured lefty on the active roster, he's the only one of the 40-man, with Daniel Brown probably the only other lefty who is even moderately close to being a major league pitcher. I suppose Suter stands a small chance of pitching a little by the end of 2019, but Torres-Costa is likely out the whole year, and Ramirez is a free agent. It wouldn't surprise me to see them go after a lefty starter, and at least 1-2 lefty relief arms, along with several minor league free agent NRI-types. If I'm a lefty reliever looking for a job, the Brewers have to be a prime candidate.

I think it's a good statement about his character to come out and tell us that he made a mistake. Players respect that, his coaches respect that, fans respect that. I have a very hard time seeing how making a statement holding himself accountable for a rare bad move is in any way a negative thing. If he had dragged Schoop through the mud with his comments I could see that perspective but he doesn't come off that way at all IMO. It’s all opinion but not all might respect that sort of comment. I certainly don’t. It don’t think it’s a necessary comment to say it is a bad trade. Just not necessary since everyone can put it together if you cut a guy a few months after trading three players for. My view is that it's a comment that a lot of fans and media types are going to like, but players may not necessarily like. If you read between the lines, he's saying that he was duped by Schoop and Schoop isn't the player Stearns thought he was getting. I could very easily see how a prospective free agent looking at signing with the Brewers may see it as Stearns not backing his players. Perhaps that is a jump, but it wouldn't surprise me. Now as a fan and a former media person, that level of candidness is rare and, for the most part, appreciated. You want a GM that is willing to admit mistakes, rather than one that has too much pride and hubris to compound them. I'm sure that if they determined Schoop had a good chance of turning things around, they would have hung onto him, as his time frame lines up pretty perfectly with Hiura's ascent. Now they are stuck with either grabbing a bridge-type 2B like Neil Walker or maybe Dozier on a 1 year deal, hoping that Dubon and Perez/Saladino are good enough to hold the fort, or signing a guy like Dietrich or LeMahieu to a multi-year deal, with the hope that they are versatile to help in other spots once Hiura is ready. I know, though, that if I was a 2B looking for a multi year deal and a starting 2B job, I would be hesitant to look at the Brewers, knowing that Hiura is waiting in the wings. It's definitely going to be an interesting story to watch play out over the next couple months.

Love the honesty. Now time to move on and find a better fit. No shortage of options available.

I suppose this could be taken as a sign that Schoop is for sure a goner. I didn't expect Saladino to be tendered, but it doesn't bother me, either. Decent depth option.

It's strange you felt compelled to make a post like this in a thread about Badger football. Not so much I think. The Badgers, considering their preseason hype, are a bigger disappointment than the Packers this year.

You are right. I think that was part of it too. Along with the revolving door of sub replacement-level crap (Villar, Sogard, Miller, Saladino, Perez) that the team was running out regularly at 2B. Plus I think there were people in the organization who had doubts that Shaw could play a passable 2B.

He has a .693 career OPS against LHP, so it was really stupid to acquire him if that was the reason. I think the bolded part pretty much sums up the deal. Stearns felt the need to make a big move, and looked past Schoop's warts hoping that his hot week prior to the trade would carry over. The truth is, though, Schoop is the exact type of hitter Stearns had shown he was trying to get away from by signing Cain and trading for Yelich and to a lesser extent, Moustakas. Schoop is very much a player Doug Melvin would have loved, but while he has the type of bat that can carry a team for short stretches in a Babe Ruthian style, it is no even close to sustainable due to his poor approach and lack of discipline. I was super excited about the deal when it happened, but I naively was looking past Schoop's warts and was thinking, or rather hoping, he would be the middle-of-the-order bat the team desperately needed at the time. I was completely wrong on that front. Thankfully Moose was decent, Shaw improved, Yelich became super human and Braun channeled his 2011 self, and when combined with terrific pitching, it was enough to go on that great run and win the division. I think Stearns likely had a different deal in mind involving Ortiz (I'm guessing for Gausman or another 2B), and when that deal fell apart, he panicked and grabbed Schoop because he felt the need to grab someone at the deadline. It happens. I'd love to see them get some value out of Schoop, but if it doesn't happen, oh well I guess. You can't compound mistakes by prolonging them. It also wouldn't surprise me to see him go somewhere else and be great again. I just don't ever see that happening for the Brewers.

Given his age, I would imagine he'll have his choice of 2-3 year deals at roughly $7 million per year. I'm in a tough spot regarding Schoop, because I don't want to see him on the 2019 roster, yet it would make me sick to give him up without getting any value in return. I would personally love to see the "change of scenery" deal with Schoop going to the Yankees for Sonny Gray. The Yankees may be more amenable to paying Schoop $10 million for one year, given Gregorious is going to be out for an extended period of 2019, than having to compete with other teams to sign him to a multi-year deal. It all depends on what other teams are offering for Gray.

I hope they can get someone to bite on him in the next 24 hours if that's the case.

I suppose it probably stands to reason that if Dietrich is signed, it would completely take them out of the running to sign Moustakas. Dietrich's poor splits against lefties are concerning, but he is seemingly a more versatile but a little less powerful version of Moose. I think I'd be ok with a straight platoon of Dietrich and Perez at 2B, perhaps until Dubon or Hiura are ready. Then Dietrich could slide into a utility role.

Morosi speculating that the Indians and Brewers are a good match. This actually makes a ton of sense, as the Indians OF is a train wreck, and the Brewers have guys like Santana, Broxton, Stokes, Taylor and Ray that make a lot of sense in a deal. Have to think that Kluber, Carrasco and Bauer are the main targets, but Danny Salazar would be an interesting buy-low candidate. I can't imagine Clevinger or Bieber would be anywhere close to available.

I think the only way someone like Hiura is expendable in a deal is if they have a plan for 2B for the next several years already in place. That could mean signing someone like Dietrich, LeMahieu or Marwin Gonzalez to a multi-year deal, trading for someone like Segura, or hoping that Dubon takes that next step and can be a serviceable 2B for the next 6 years. If they are truly in a "go for it" mentality for the next three seasons, a move like this wouldn't surprise me. It would obviously be a hit to the minor league system, but I believe they are doing a great job restocking the lower minors with some very high-upside talent, so they wouldn't be down for long.

I remember being pretty excited by the prospect of having Sheets and Gallardo at the top of the rotation, but that didn't exactly work out the way I had hoped. They ended up barely overlapping. I don't remember a time when they had three potential young solid rotation members that were basically home grown. Having too many solid rotation options is a pretty foreign feeling for a Brewer fan.

So is calling the opinion of other posters "laughable", or any other of the dozens of condescending remarks you've thrown out there over the last few months.

Right. And I'll add that anybody that considers Woodruff a slightly better prospect than Peralta isn't taking a shot at Peralta. Hard not to get excited about the guy after what we saw from him the last 2 months of the season. I think all 3 of these guys are far and away better than any pitching prospects we've had come up since Yovani Gallardo, and they may in fact be better than Gallardo. Most discussion of trading these guys has been in conversations for Realmuto, Syndergaard, Kluber, etc. It's not like we are actively trying to dump any of these guys, and it's all speculation anyways. For all we know, Stearns is making those guys virtually off limits. Right! Since when did including a player in a hypothetical trade scenario equate to undervaluing him? It is quite the opposite, actually. The fact that he is being included in trade scenarios for high-end MLB stars means that he is extremely highly valued among BF posters.

Players mentioned as trade targets for a package including Peralta: 1. Madison Bumgarner 2. Jacob deGrom 3. Noah Syndergaard 4. James Paxton 5. J.T. Realmuto 6. Whit Merrifield 7. Jean Segura 8. Paul Goldschmidt I looked back over the last 3 months of posts. Every one of those guys is either an ace type, or a lineup altering bat. And trades for the guys like Bumgarner and Goldschmidt who have little control remaining were shot down by multiple posters. I, along with most here, am paying attention.

Agree with this. They don't have the high-end guys, but when I went to 100 on my prospect list there were very, very few who didn't have something going for them. I recall Sickels last year having a ridiculous number of C+/C grade prospects in the Brewers system, and they were almost all Rookie/low-A guys with some upside, not meh AA/AAA guys. It's possible that 1-2 years from now the Brewers could have 20+ B-grade prospects, and that's a lot. I think this is another case of prospects that are controlled by bigger media markets getting more hype. Personally, I had a rough time narrowing down my top 25, as I believe this team has at least 10-15 high-end prospects, and probably another 15-20 that grade out as solid role players at the ML level. Obviously not all of those guys are going to pan out, but those who are saying that the trades the team has made have decimated the farm system, or that they don't have the system depth to make a significant deal without giving up Hiura or MLB-level young pitching I believe are incorrect.

This is simply not true. His TAv in 2016 was .248, in 2017 was .264, and in 2018 was .282. TAv baseline is .260, so he's literally been an above average hitter 2 of his 3 seasons above A ball. wRC+ tells the same story, with marks of 87/103/126 in that same time frame. TAv and wRC+ are both adjusted for parks effects (TAv more so than wRC+), which wipes out the Colorado Springs hitters haven argument. It is actually possible for players to get better while playing in a bandbox. Additionally, Nottingham has progressed defensively to the point where he no longer needs his bat to carry him to the big leagues. He can and will provide value defensively. But he isn't Khrush Davis

Agreed, but that defies the narrative that he is attempting to create, which is that Peralta is the team's best pitching prospect, and that anyone who puts Burnes and/or Woodruff ahead of him in the pecking order is not only wrong, but comically and condescendingly wrong. The only places where I've seen Peralta brought up as a trade chip are for either Realmuto or a legit ace-type pitcher (deGrom, Thor, MadBum). What the Brewers need to do is figure out if Peralta figures prominently into the approximate 2-3 year window they are likely to have as a World Series contender. Then they need to determine if his value over the next 6 seasons is worth MadBum for 2019 and a draft pick in the 30s in 2020, or Realmuto for 2019 and 2020 and a pick in the 30s in 2021. That's where things get dicey.

1. Keston Hiura, 2B, Biloxi 2. Zack Brown, RHSP, Biloxi 3. Tristen Lutz, RF, Wisconsin 4. Corey Ray, CF, Biloxi 5. Aaron Ashby, LHSP, Wisconsin 6. Joe Gray, CF, AZL 7. Trey Supak, RHSP, Biloxi 8. Braden Webb, RHSP, Biloxi 9. Brice Turang, SS, Colorado Springs 10. Lucas Erceg, 3B, Biloxi 11. Jacob Nottingham, C, San Antonio 12. Mauricio Dubon, SS, San Antonio 13. Adrian Houser, RHSP, San Antonio 14. Nate Kirby, LHSP, Carolina 15. LG Castillo, OF, Colorado Springs 16. Conor Harber, RHSP, Biloxi 17. Wes Wilson, INF, Biloxi 18. Troy Stokes Jr., LF, Biloxi 19. Drew Rasmussen, RHRP, AZL 20. Jon Olczak, RHRP, Biloxi 21. Trent Grisham, OF, Biloxi 22. Carlos Rodriguez, CF, AZL 23. Micah Bello, CF, AZL 24. Marcos Diplan, RHSP, Biloxi 25. Tyrone Taylor, CF, San Antonio 26. Jake Gatewood, 1B, Biloxi 27. Joey Matulovich, RHSP, Colorado Springs 28. Cody Ponce, RHSP, Biloxi 29. Tom Jankins, RHSP, Biloxi 30. Larry Ernesto, OF, DSL 31. Payton Henry, C, Wisconsin 32. Max McDowell, C, Biloxi 33. Ernesto Martinez, 1B, AZL 34. Je'Von Ward, OF, Colorado Springs 35. Caden Lemons, RHSP, Colorado Springs 36. David Fry, C, Wisconsin 37. Mario Feliciano, C, Carolina 38. Chad McClanahan, 1B, Wisconsin 39. Brendan Murphy, LHSP, AZL 40. Yeison Coca, INF, Colorado Springs 41. Jake Hager, INF, San Antonio 42. Jayson Rose, RHSP, Wisconsin 43. Nash Walters, RHSP, AZL 44. Joantgel Segovia, OF, Carolina 45. Bowden Francis, RHSP, Carolina 46. Bubba Derby, RHSP, San Antonio 47. Tim Dillard, RHRP, San Antonio I am very high on Zach Brown, Aaron Ashby, Trey Supak and Braden Webb being the next group of young starters who come knocking at the MLB door in the next two seasons. Drew Rasmussen really intrigues me as well. It is my hope that he has better luck than Nate Kirby coming back from his college injury woes. Still have a lot of hope for Kirby, though, too. I also love Lutz. I think this is the year he establishes himself at a top 25 prospect in all of MLB. The ball jumps off that kid's bat, and he's go a little of that Mike Trout look to him.