monty57

Fangraphs has him as a 1.0 WAR player at this point, so he's not hurting us, but he's replaceable. Most of his value is on offense (wRC+ 115). Defensively, in computing WAR, Fangraphs has +3.3 offensive, -11.2 defensive to compute the 1.0 total WAR. Defensive Runs Saved: -5 UZR/150: +2.1 Outs Above Average: -4 Fielding Runs Prevented: -3 From a WAR/$ standpoint, Fangraphs puts him at a $8.1M value. He made $1.9M this year and will be in year 2 arby next year, so I'd guess around $4-5M. If you believe in valuing players this way, he'll probably be a bit underpaid next year if he puts up a similar year, and he'll have another year of arby after that. That extra value should also make him tradeable if they decide to go that route, but I wouldn't expect a huge return. Bottom line, I'm fine with holding onto him for another year if we use our limited resources to upgrade elsewhere, but I'm also fine if they find an upgrade, or decide to go with Hiura there, and trade Rowdy away. He's the type of player that has a role as long as he's relatively cheap, but teams should be looking to upgrade from him if possible.

This is a really important point. Every move is critiqued individually, but really needs to be looked at as part of a bigger puzzle. I used to think that we should model ourselves after the Rays or A’s, but I now think we’re trying to operate more like the Cardinals. We sometimes trade prospects for MLB players, and sometimes trade MLB players for prospects. We sometimes sign guys to extensions, and sometimes trade guys away. Stearns seems to like trades that bring in players with team control and he mainly uses free agency for short-term, “fill a hole in the roster” players. Most of our extensions are going to be offered to pre-arby guys because that’s where you can get the most value from the deal, and because we simply can’t afford too many high-priced players on the roster.

I agree with all of this. Since Peralta and Ashby were both offered the contracts they signed, I believe that similar contracts were offered to Burnes and Woodruff. Since they declined the offer and decided to go year-to-year into free agency (which is their right and I have no problem with it), the team has to do what's best for the team. Offering them a monster deal now probably isn't what's best for the team, nor is letting them walk in free agency. That pretty much leaves one option, which is trading them at some point in the next couple of seasons. I hope the team continues to offer deals to talented pre-arby guys like they did with Peralta and Ashby. It gives the team cost certainty and a couple extra years of the player's service, and if things go bad, the contract won't cripple the franchise like a big free agent contract could. As to the first sentence, I watched an interview of David Rubenstein on CNBC. He is the founder of The Carlyle Group, and has been rumored to be someone who may purchase one of the sports teams that look to be on the market. He said it's really hard to lose money by buying a professional sports team, but that MLB and NBA owners buy for the long-term capital gain, and don't expect to get any year-to-year income. NFL owners can expect to get both. Just brought this up because he'd know as much as anyone about this, so him saying it bears some weight.

I don't think the thread suggests anything. It's asking what people think would be the best strategy going forward. If you think that packaging our prospects in a Yelich-type deal is the best option, I'd love to hear who you think that player might be. We could use some upgrades, and that may be the route the team takes. I personally think our best option is to trade off one of Burnes/Woodruff this off-season, but that's just my opinion, it's not the mandate of the thread. My opinion stems from the group of guys we currently have in their arby years. I don't want to see us hold onto the star players until free agency, because I think the value we would receive in trade far outweighs the value we'll get from another season or two with the player. Again, that's just my opinion. I like hearing what other people think, especially when that opinion differs from mine. That's how I learn.

To the first paragraph, they are relevant because they are recent past and were put together by the same team that's currently in charge. This is a thread about "where do we go from here," so my argument is to stick with the strategy that has given us four consecutive playoff teams with a goal of remaining "continually competitive." Part of that strategy is that there will be moving parts, and I'd guess there will be a lot of them over the next couple off-seasons. To the second, I don't think it's a fact that Peralta can't handle a starter's workload. Just last year, he pitched in 28 games, starting 27, for 144.1 IP. In today's baseball, not that many guys pitch 200+ innings, so he pitched a "starter's workload" last year. He is unfortunately experiencing some injuries this year, which isn't uncommon. I hope they don't hurt his future production, and I don't believe there is anything that shows they will. The current diagnosis is "arm fatigue," so unless I hear any different, I'll have to hope that's all it is. You are right that a long-term injury to Peralta would hurt the Brewers going forward. He's a good player, so you could say the same thing about any good player on any team. Most players have had a stint on the IL at some point, especially pitchers.

Here you go: https://awmcap.com/blog/mlb-service-time#:~:text=The full pension consists of,valued at %245%2C750 per quarter.

Fingers crossed for Topa. Been a long road through his injuries, so I'm ready for him to be able to help out the MLB bullpen. Good to see Brosseau back, as he's had a good season for the Brewers and really helps out in the "vs LHP" lineups. Sending Ruiz down makes sense. I believe he's already used his option, he got another taste of the majors, and can now get some full-time play in Nashville.

Fingers crossed for Topa. Been a long road through his injuries, so I'm ready for him to be able to help out the MLB bullpen. Good to see Brosseau back, as he's had a good season for the Brewers and really helps out in the "vs LHP" lineups. Sending Ruiz down makes sense. I believe he's already used his option, he got another taste of the majors, and can now get some full-time play in Nashville.

It would makes sense for some of the OF prospects will be used in trade this offseason to help at a position of need. Another option would be for them to trade Renfroe, who is heading into his final year of arby and should make somewhere around $10M, but that would leave them with two rookie OF next year, plus Turang possibly starting, and Ashby in the rotation. The Brewers need to rely on talent from the farm, but that would be a lot. Bobby Bonilla's deal is laughed at every year by everyone in and out of baseball. I doubt any team will ever consider doing something like that ever again, and I certainly hope it's not the Brewers. That said, I agree that Burnes (along with Woodruff, Adames, and Lauer) will need to be traded in the next two offseasons prior to hitting free agency.

The owner hires the management team, approves (or disapproves) their decisions, and pays every person employed by the organization. That's pretty important. I agree that the best owners seem to be ones who hire good "baseball people" and let them make the baseball decisions, but they are still where the proverbial buck stops.

As I said, give the ownership group the Dodgers' TV deal, and they will be the Dodgers. Of course, the Dodgers have only won one World Series (in the crazy 2020 season that some people say shouldn't even count), and have been ousted from the playoffs every other season even with all their talent, but that's another story. It's easy to say "...they should just..." but the resources aren't always there. When I fly, I'd love to have a private jet, but guess what, I fly right there with all the other "common folk." Everyone has a budget and has to live within that budget. The team can only afford so much, and their capital has been spent compiling the current team. Bear in mind, that team still has a four-year playoff streak intact. I've heard the "we can't waste..." argument before. Remember "we can't waste Fielder," or "we can't waste Braun?" As long as we maintain the current strategy, we can continue to argue about what "we can't waste," because we will continue to have winning teams to argue over. I prefer that to arguing whether Rickey Bones is a valid #1 starter. I try to stay in the realm of what's realistic for the Brewers. Of course putting Harper or Trout in our lineup would make us better, but that's just not going to happen. What is realistic and in the theme of this thread is trading away Burnes or Woodruff and getting a prospect back that could become a star player. Or, more likely (because stars are rare), getting several prospects back that help form the next "core" for a successful playoff run. It'd be cool to remain in the playoff hunt next year, and I think we will. It'd also be cool if Chourio does become the next Juan Soto, and he actually has some talented players around him. Those guys will probably come from trading away Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, and others over the next couple of offseasons.

The scouting reports I read say he had "heavy hands" at 2B and got moved. He's learning CF and it sounds like people think he'll be fine there, but I don't think he would have been a good 2B.

I'll throw the Dodgers out there as the counter to the Angels. When the "Magic Johnson group" bought the Dodgers, they thought they could just throw money around and win. They made a horrific trade with the Red Sox to "win now" that had the opposite effect: https://www.latimes.com/sports/la-xpm-2012-aug-25-la-sp-dn-dodgers-trade-magic-20120825-story.html Unlike the Angels (but like Attanasio), they studied their franchise to determine what they were doing wrong, and realized that bringing in Andrew Friedman (the guy who was beating the big money AL East teams with a low payroll) made sense. Now, they are the envy of every team in baseball as teams try to figure out how they can have a ridiculously talented MLB team, but still have one of the best farm systems in baseball. Give Attanasio/Stearns the Dodgers' TV deal, and the Brewers could be the Dodgers. For the market we have, we're doing very well. Unfortunately, sometimes teams play under their expectations for a season.

Right. I know this will be an unpopular statement, but Owner/Management are the most important people in sports. Well managed teams are regularly at the top of the standings, while poorly managed teams are routinely at the bottom of the standings. The players change over the years, but long-term owners (who hire the management staff) bring long-term winning or losing to a franchise. Since Arte Moreno bought the team from Disney, he's tried to throw money at superstars and that hasn't worked. A few superstars playing with below average teammates is not a recipe for a winning franchise. That was the point of my post. I don't want the Brewers to bring in more star talent if it means they either (a) have to trade all their prospects, (b) have to spend so much they can't afford talent at other positions, or (c) a combination of a & b. Melvin was one of the best GMs the Brewers have ever had, but after some success he got us to a point where we had a poor farm and maxed out payroll, and the MLB team was in decline. Attanasio realized what was going on, made some changes, and our franchise is in better shape for it. What the team's management has been doing has worked. People are frustrated with the team right now, and that's understandable. They're hard to watch. Decisions made out of emotions are generally not good decisions. The team needs to stick with the goal of remaining "continually competitive" and we as fans will be able to continue to see winning teams. Blowing things up because {name what is currently frustrating the fanbase} is an emotional response that would probably not be in the best interest of the franchise. Neither would holding onto a "name" player because the fans know the name (that he liked having "name players" on the team was something Attanasio used to say early in his tenure that he doesn't say now). The management has been so successful (relative to Brewers' history), that fans are in an uproar about an 80-something win team that might miss the playoffs, breaking the team-record playoff streak. Prior to Attanasio, we went something like 25 straight years without a .500 or better record. Wisconsin needs to take a deep breath, count to ten, and realize that Brewers' management knows what they're doing.

In the post you quoted, I simply asked what the personnel differences are between this year and last year. With essentially the same roster, we won 95 games in 2021 and are on pace to win 85 games this year. The team obviously hasn't played as well this year, but the thoughts around this board and other places that there is no talent seem unfounded. We still have a month or so to go, but from a team that will have a 2-year average of somewhere around 90 wins/season, we will be losing career journeyman Jace Peterson who has had a good year in his age 32 season, Omar Narvaez, who has had a down year, Andrew McCutchen, who has posted 0.3 WAR, Rogers, who was a mid-season pick-up and has -0.3 WAR, and Rosenthal who hasn't played. That's not really an insurmountable amount of talent walking out the door. I expect some trades and free agent signings, but we have a decent base from which to build. While there are many moves that could be made, there are basically three generic strategies: 1) Hold everyone and "go for it." After a somewhat disappointing season, and a lethargic team going on the field every night, I don't think this will happen. 2) Trade some guys, notably some of the "stars" that are getting closer to free agency. I think this is the route we'll take, with some of the talent coming back helping right away, and some of it a little lower in the minors. 3) Go into rebuild. Trade away all the arby guys and get as much "prospect capital" back as possible. While I get the argument for this, I don't think we're at this point as a franchise, and I definitely don't think Attanasio is at this point as an owner. People keep saying "we don't have a player I would absolutely want back," but I think we're built to not have any holes. Pretty much everyone in the starting roster is average-to-above-average, with the "good-to-great" talent residing on the pitching side. Everyone would like to have more "good-to-great" players. There is not an owner, GM, manager, or fan that has ever lived who didn't want more "good-to-great" players on their team. It's obtaining them while still keeping a solid team around them that is tough. We have had some teams in the past who had more "good-to-great" players, surrounded by a bunch of below average guys, and we didn't have the success we've had recently. The Angels are today's example of why that doesn't work. Our "couple stars and average-to-above-average everywhere else" strategy has given us the most successful period in Brewers history, and I don't believe it's over. Give Stearns another $100M to work with every year, and we'll have more stars, but for the market we're in, I say stick with what's working.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/brewers-to-non-tender-chris-carter.html They let him go because he was projected to receive over $8M in arby. He ended up signing with the Yankees for $3M, but that was after the Brewers non-tendered him, so he was a free agent, not an arby guy. But your point still stands. Tellez is having an okay year, but for a first baseman those offensive numbers will only play while he's inexpensive. He's got a wRC+ of 113, which is great for some positions, but not 1B. He's compiled 0.7 Fangraphs WAR, which isn't all that great. He is in his first year of arby at $1.9M. Being an everyday 1B, he's going to see an arby raise, so the Brewers will have a decision to make on him. I expect him to be back, but he could be used in trade. I doubt they non-tender him. Maybe after next year if they think he'll be too expensive going into his third arby season, but I think they'd be willing to pay the (my uneducated estimate) $4-5M or so he could get in arby next year.

What is the big personnel difference between the 2021 team and the 2022 team? We lost Avi and JBJ, but gained Renfroe. We had Tellez and Adames from opening day. Either the last few seasons were smoke and mirrors, or we simply underperformed this year. I choose to believe that we have a lot of talent on this team, but we're finding ways to lose ball games. If that is correct, then we should be better record-wise than we are, and I think that's a realistic assumption. If you keep putting talented teams on the field, you will win more often than you lose. You will occasionally have a down year, because baseball is baseball, but more often than not, you'll win. Whether we turn things around in time to sneak into the playoffs this year or not, management has to stick with the strategy that has brought them more success than at any other time in Brewer history. With the current make-up of the roster (talent and team control), I think they have the ability to remain competitive for a long time, but what they do with their "short term guys," notably Burnes, Woodruff and Adames will be very important to the franchise. Either letting them walk as free agents or making a bad trade could hurt, so whatever direction they head is exciting but scary.

You have a point on his 2021. The big problem there was he couldn't stay on the field, with only 286 PAs, or roughly a half season's production. When healthy, he played good defense and posted a wRC+ of 98. His BA/OBP dropped, but it looks like he had some of that "put some lift in your swing to hit more HRs" that permeates the Brewer dugout, so he hit a few extra HR and his SLG went up. That would be why his OPS+ is a bit above average while his wRC+ is a bit below average. If I recall correctly, his injuries started with his hamstring, and that hit in one of his first few games of spring training. That could happen to anyone, but it makes it a lot more likely when you're an older player who took a year off and didn't really do much to stay in shape. Regardless, while I like the style of baseball he played throughout his career, I am glad he's gone, I wish the Brewers would never sign a 30-something to a guaranteed multi-year deal, and I look forward to seeing what our young CFs can do going forward.

McCalvy did an article on him prior to the 2021 season. He asked something like "How have you been keeping in shape during your season away from baseball," and Cain's response was that he didn't work out, and his only exercise was chasing after his kids. I think his lack of effort was the reason the team signed JBJ for insurance. They babied him in Spring Training to try to ease him into shape, and he got injured anyhow. Even when healthy, he was subpar at the plate in 2021, and completely abysmal in 2022. Who knows all the details, but it was at that point that I figured he really liked being home with his family, and didn't like spending all of his time training for or playing baseball, but he realized that he had to show up in order to get his paycheck. It sucks because I really liked the way he played, and he was the main reason I didn't like the Greinke deal. We traded away a good portion of a back-to-back World Series roster for a season-and-a-half of Greink, and then compounded the problem by re-signing Cain to give us two seasons worth of effort for a five-year deal.

I think there’s a middle ground. Burnes / Woodruff won’t bring back as much as Soto, but they will bring back a lot. There’s a good chance that one will be traded, and that would bring back some pretty good talent to add to what we’ve already got. Trout and Ohtani show that having the two best players in baseball won’t win you much. You need talent across the board. We have a lot of talent on the team, and we have talented youngsters to add to that mix. We don’t need a magic pill, we just need to keep adding talent. I highly doubt we’ll blow things up, but I do think there will be changes. Our big question is “do we trade pitching, and if so, which of Burnes/Woodruff do we trade and which do we keep for another year?” There are a other things, too, but what we get back from Burnes/Woodruff (if one is traded) will help answer how we shuffle the rest of the players.

Turang has been very young for his level in his time in the minors, and still posts a career .364 OBP. In Frelick’s short career, he’s posting a .405 OBP. Adames has been valuable this year, but in my opinion an OBP below .300 doesn’t belong in the two hole Yelich has transformed into a high OBP top-of-the-order guy, so if we can add another high-OBP guy at the top of the order with him, while moving Adames down in the order, the SLG that guys like Adames have can theoretically knock in more runs. Looking at our prospects, I think we’re going to slowly transform into a team with higher OBP and better defense, so I think we’ll look a lot different in a year or two from what we saw this year.

I agree that this season has been somewhat disappointing, and that there are a lot of important decisions to be made this off-season, but I don’t believe that the organization is heading in the wrong direction. Anything can happen in a season, so don’t get too discouraged by a down year The stated goal is to remain “continually competitive,” and during their string of playoff appearances, they have been able to rebuild their farm, turning it from one of the worst systems in baseball to one that now has multiple guys ready to contribute now, and a lot of young talent in the lower levels. That really opens up the options. Trading a Cy Young-caliber talent like Burnes or Woodruff is always going to sting, but having a stable-full of good pitchers will lessen the pain. We could bring back a king’s ransom in young talent by trading one of these guys, while retaining the other to be the Ace of the staff. Peralta and Lauer round out a nice top of the rotation, Ashby has hit some growing pains, but has the stuff to be a top-of-the-rotation guy in the future, and we have multiple options like Houser, Small, and Gasser as our #5. Even after trading one of Burnes and Woodruff, our pitching should be a strength. Yelich is going to be a mainstay for years. While we would all prefer the MVP numbers, he is still a positive value player in his current version, and he’s young enough to think he could be a good OBP guy at the top of the order for several years. We have multiple MLB-ready OF to allow for Stearns to consider trading Renfroe, or we could hold onto him. It still amazes me that we got him for JBJ. Turang is ready for his shot, so it will be interesting to see what we do with the infield. Peterson (a FA after the season) has pretty much taken over for Urias, so they are obviously down on him, and I think they’ll look for a way (trade or FA) to upgrade 3B. Teller is good enough that we don’t have to make finding a 1B a necessity, although it is a possibility. As to the McCutchen references, I’m not opposed to filling holes through FA, but it has to be holes, not key players. Someone signed to a one year deal should not be looked at as a key player. We should have a nice young core of players, and short-term FA signees should compliment that. There will be a lot of turnover in the next few off seasons due to guys nearing free agency. I see this as opportunity to bring in a lot of talented young players and continue to produce playoff-caliber teams.

Is the 28 man a mandatory number? Under the old rules, a team could bring up from 0-15 players. Do teams have to bring two players up now, or could they have a 26, 27 or 28 man roster?

I like Urias, and wish the best for him. I think he's trying to hit a homer on every pitch, and that's not really his game. I think he'd be a lot better if he remembers that he should be a bat-to-ball guy. In my opinion, the extra handful of home runs he hits with his current approach aren't worth the drop in OBP. Unfortunately in today's baseball, players know that swinging for the fences is how they get a big paycheck, so I doubt he changes unless he continues to lose playing time. Looking at recent draft picks and the free agent signings of Wong and Cain, I think that Brewer management likes guys who make contact and play good defense, so I think that over the next few years we'll see a shift from the current "all or nothing" approach our lineup takes to more contact/OBP guys. If Urias doesn't adapt, I think he'll be moved for a guy who will. As to Hiura, there is definitely a lot of risk. I think that if they are in a bit of a payroll crunch, they could find a better way to spend money than to bring in another DH-only vet. If they do rely on Hiura and he doesn't pan out, then they have a "fall back" of bringing up some OF prospects and shuffling the DH between Yelich, Renfroe, Mitchell, Ruiz, Frelick, and Wiemer. But, if he does pan out and gets everyday playing time, they could have a real weapon in Hiura now that the DH is part of NL baseball.

It looks like Brosseau's planning on being back on Friday, so he'll probably be the "call-up" for position players. Add another healthy reliever and we're at 28.