monty57

For reference, using wRC+. Number in parenthesis is the total Fangraphs WAR for the season, only done to show that Mitchell has already provided almost as much WAR as McCutchen ? Adames (3.5): vs RHP 115, vs LHP 94 Yelich (2.2): 122, 95 Peterson (2.0): 106, 136 Renfroe (1.9): 126, 130 Wong (1.6): 132, 32 Hiura (1.3): 201, 64 Caratini (1.3): 79, 102 Narvaez (1.1): 86, 89 Urias (1.1): 99, 95 Tellez (1.0): 124, 101 Taylor (0.9): 94, 78 Davis (0.5): 61, 125 Brosseau (0.4): 103, 122 McCutchen (0.2): 95, 104 Severino (0.1): 101, 91 Mitchell (0.1): 199, 187 If I had to pencil in a "vs LHP" lineup (without Brosseau because he's hurt), I'd probably go: Yelich (LF), McCutchen (DH), Renfroe (RF), Tellez (1B), Adames (SS), Peterson (2B), Caratini (C), Urias (3B), Mitchell (CF). When Brosseau is healthy, I'd go: Yelich, Brosseau, Renfroe, Tellez, McCutchen, Adames, Peterson, Caratini, Mitchell It's not overly pretty. Brosseau and McCutchen were brought in this past offseason to help the team vs lefties, and for the most part they have done that. Unfortunately, much of the rest of the roster has done pretty poorly against them. I'd definitely make sure that Renfroe, Tellez, McCutchen and Brosseau (when healthy) are near the top of the order. I just kept Yelich in there because he seemed to settle into the leadoff spot and I'd hate to have something go haywire if he were dropped in the order vs lefties. Adames probably shouldn't be #2 against righties, and he definitely shouldn't be there vs lefties. He profiles much better as a 5/6 guy than a #2 guy.

Brewer management has made it abundantly clear that they want to remain "continually competitive." That means that they will not go "all in" or "tank," they're going to rely on their prospects to perform at the MLB level, and they won't let superstar players walk in free agency. It has also come to light that attendance is way down across the league this year. I think the Brewers were overbudget this year, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the opening day payroll drop from the roughly $132M is was to start this year. The big question then becomes when they will trade away Burnes, Woodruff, Lauer, and Adames (Houser has kind of pitched himself out of this discussion). I believe that they will trade away one of the "big 2" this offseason, with a focus on bringing back players who are in the upper minors or already have a taste of the big leagues. That would still leave them with a strong rotation anchored by Burnes or Woodruff as the ace, along with Peralta, Lauer and Ashby and the fifth starter up for grabs among Houser and the MLB-ready prospects or someone who is brought back in the Burnes/Woodruff trade. Mitchell is up and has looked very good in his brief time here. I think it's a given that CF will be manned by a rookie next year, and they will have to give a lot of thought to trading Renfroe. He's had a good season, and we'd get something in return, but he will be entering his final year and make somewhere in the $10-11M range, so a trade could make sense. An outfield of Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick/Wiemer/Ruiz could be a real strength. If I had to guess, I'd say that Wong's option will not be exercised, but I think management likes the way he plays and is trying to get more players like him, so there is a possibility he'll be retained. If he is, I think the best move for the team would be to put Turang ay SS an move Adames to 3B, but I doubt Adames would go along with that. More likely, I think the infield will be Tellez and some combo of Adames, Urias, Turang, and Brosseau with another utility guy from somewhere. I do think that they're tiring of Urias' approach, and with the potential money saved from guys like Burnes/Woodruff, Renfroe and Wong, they could make a play for a third baseman. Hiura has done enough to be penciled in as the normal DH, along with getting some reps at 1B and maybe a little 2B and LF. Brosseau or one of the OF could spell him when a lefty is on the mound. This could save them from having to sign another veteran FA for the role. I think they'll retain Caratini for his final arby year, but will find a veteran FA catcher (someone like Barnhardt, Castro, Sanchez, Vasquez) on a 1-2 year deal, with Feliciano as "insurance" at AAA. Trying to guess what will happen this offseason is a fool's errand, as anything could happen, but it's kind of fun to ponder. I think that people who hated the Hader trade will hate this offseason. We'll probably trade some good players for young guys people haven't heard of, we probably won't spend a lot of money, and we could have three rookies in the opening day day lineup and maybe one in the starting rotation, and that's not including who could come over in trade.

Good. It took them until mid-August to finally start to do what even the least "stat-centric" fan was calling for. It has been pretty obvious all season that Hiura should be played against RHP, and it has been obvious for a few years that McCutchen shouldn't be played regularly against RHP. Hiura has been so much better vs RHP than McCutchen, that had they started playing Hiura over McCutchen a couple of months ago, we would probably be ahead of the Padres right now instead of trying to catch them. I'm generally on board with what the Brewers do. Change that, they're usually way ahead of me so I rarely question what they're doing. That's why I'm so baffled by this. It has been really, really obvious that Hiura should play vs RHP and as we sit here on August 30 with 127 games under our belts, Hiura has only had 104 PAs against RHP this season (with a 201 wRC+ in those appearances). For reference, Aaron Judge has a 199 wRC+ vs RHP. Paul Goldschmidt is at 171. They are probably going to be the AL and NL MVPs. Let the man play.

And the Gagne and Rosenthal deals were both complete wastes of money. At least, Gagne was a waste and Rosenthal is looking that way as there's still a chance the Brewers get something out of him. How are those good examples? Someone has wasted money before, so it makes sense for someone to waste money in the future? Hader can't "just sign a deal and skip arby." The Padres have to first offer him arby, and then negotiate with him. If he is offered arby and believes that he will get a certain amount (say $15M) in arby, why would he negotiate for a deal that would pay him less than that? Arbitration is binding, and it looks likely that he will get somewhere around $15M in arby regardless of how poorly he pitches for the remainder of this season. If the Padres offer him arby, they have to be willing to pay him something like $15M for the 2023 season. There is certainly a good chance that the Padres will offer him arby. There is just a lot of risk to that decision. They could be throwing a lot of money down the drain, and since they're already pushing the luxury tax threshold, they could be paying a penalty to throw that money down the drain.

Since 2016 (Narvaez's rookie season), Omar has 9.0 WAR and d'Arnoud has 9.1. From '20-'22, Narvaez has 4.4 WAR and d'Arnoud has 5.1. d'Arnoud is having a good (2.9 Fangraphs WAR) season after a disappointing (0.6 WAR) season last year. I would rather just pay Narvaez to come back or sign a different veteran FA rather than giving up prospects to trade for d'Arnoud while having to pay his salary. Looking at his history, I doubt d'Arnoud carries this year's success into future seasons, but anyone trading for him would be "buying high" on this year's success. If we are to trade for a catcher, I think Stearns will look for a young player with lots of service time left. It would probably make sense to give up a good prospect in a position of depth for a young player in a position of need.

Since 2016 (Narvaez's rookie season), Omar has 9.0 WAR and d'Arnoud has 9.1. From '20-'22, Narvaez has 4.4 WAR and d'Arnoud has 5.1. d'Arnoud is having a good (2.9 Fangraphs WAR) season after a disappointing (0.6 WAR) season last year. I would rather just pay Narvaez to come back or sign a different veteran FA rather than giving up prospects to trade for d'Arnoud while having to pay his salary. Looking at his history, I doubt d'Arnoud carries this year's success into future seasons, but anyone trading for him would be "buying high" on this year's success. If we are to trade for a catcher, I think Stearns will look for a young player with lots of service time left. It would probably make sense to give up a good prospect in a position of depth for a young player in a position of need.

So, McCutchen is now at .244 / .313 / .391 / .704, for a Fangraphs WAR of 0.2 and a wRC+ of 97, primarily at DH which should be a position in which you put a guy that is a better-than-average hitter. He is basically replacement level, and he's the main reason that Hiura only has 191 plate appearances on the season. Oh well, at least they finally took McCutchen out of the 3 hole in the lineup, as he was hitting 6th in yesterday's game. We regularly put Adames' sub-.300 OBP in the two hole and McCutchen's replacement level bat in the 3 hole with out best "vs RHP" bat sitting on the bench and wonder why we have a hard time scoring runs on a regular basis... go figure. That's enough negativity from me. We're on a three-game winning streak and closing in on the final Wild Card spot. Go Brewers!

Always a possibility. For example, teams used to be wary of trading for a Braves minor league pitcher in the 90's, because it seemed that they held onto the guys who turned into stars and traded away the ones who never made it. The Brewers haven't traded many star players prior to free agency, but the ones they have (Lucroy, Gomez and now Hader) have all fallen off a cliff as soon as they were traded away. That could give teams some hesitation in making that type of trade with the Crew. However, I'd take the term "damaged goods" with a grain of salt. He doesn't appear to be injured, so they weren't hiding anything there. Everyone saw his final few outings with the Brewers, so if the Brewers noticed something mechanical, everyone could watch film on him and see the same thing.

Obviously, nothing's going to be done between now and the end of the year. Narvaez and Caratini are healthy, so we just hope they get hot. After the season, Narvaez is a free agent. Caratini has one year of arbitration remaining, and has a salary of $2,000,000 this year in his second year of arby. They also held onto Pedro Severino after he was DFA'd August 3. You don't generally solve your offensive woes by picking up a big-hitting catcher in the offseason, because there just aren't too many big-hitting catchers around. The exception this year will be Wilson Contreras, but my guess is that he will get a deal bigger than the Brewers will be able to offer. Mike Zunino and Omar Narvaez are pretty much the next best guys out there. The Brewers will need to decide if Caratini has done enough to merit paying him probably around $4M or so next year. I think they will, so then they'll need to decide if that should be as a starter or as a back-up. With your astute observation of his late-season problems, he may be better served in the back-up role, as too much PT seems to tire him out as the season drags on. They also need to decide if they think Feliciano is ready. He was forced onto the MLB roster this season, but I don't think the Brewers are ready to hand him the reigns. Barring a trade (always an option), I think they'll either go with the Caratini/Severino combo next year, or (probably more likely) they will find a veteran FA on a 1-2 year deal with Feliciano as insurance in Nashville. There are quite a few veteran FA's out there who are over 30 and would probably be happy to sign on as a starter. These are guys like Tucker Barnhardt, Christian Vazquez, Jason Castro, Gary Sanchez, Curt Casali, or even bringing Narvaez back. None of the options will excite the masses, but any big offensive upgrade is probably going to have to come from elsewhere. We hope that Feliciano takes the next step to become an everyday MLB catcher, but my guess is they're looking at getting him some more "seasoning" in Nashville next year, and taking Caratini's spot when he leaves for free agency after next year. Longer-term, we hope that Jeferson Quero (#7 Brewers prospect on MLB.com) continues to advance through the system and impress. He's only 19 and just got promoted to A+ this year, so you're looking several years out for him to help at the MLB level.

Obviously, nothing's going to be done between now and the end of the year. Narvaez and Caratini are healthy, so we just hope they get hot. After the season, Narvaez is a free agent. Caratini has one year of arbitration remaining, and has a salary of $2,000,000 this year in his second year of arby. They also held onto Pedro Severino after he was DFA'd August 3. You don't generally solve your offensive woes by picking up a big-hitting catcher in the offseason, because there just aren't too many big-hitting catchers around. The exception this year will be Wilson Contreras, but my guess is that he will get a deal bigger than the Brewers will be able to offer. Mike Zunino and Omar Narvaez are pretty much the next best guys out there. The Brewers will need to decide if Caratini has done enough to merit paying him probably around $4M or so next year. I think they will, so then they'll need to decide if that should be as a starter or as a back-up. With your astute observation of his late-season problems, he may be better served in the back-up role, as too much PT seems to tire him out as the season drags on. They also need to decide if they think Feliciano is ready. He was forced onto the MLB roster this season, but I don't think the Brewers are ready to hand him the reigns. Barring a trade (always an option), I think they'll either go with the Caratini/Severino combo next year, or (probably more likely) they will find a veteran FA on a 1-2 year deal with Feliciano as insurance in Nashville. There are quite a few veteran FA's out there who are over 30 and would probably be happy to sign on as a starter. These are guys like Tucker Barnhardt, Christian Vazquez, Jason Castro, Gary Sanchez, Curt Casali, or even bringing Narvaez back. None of the options will excite the masses, but any big offensive upgrade is probably going to have to come from elsewhere. We hope that Feliciano takes the next step to become an everyday MLB catcher, but my guess is they're looking at getting him some more "seasoning" in Nashville next year, and taking Caratini's spot when he leaves for free agency after next year. Longer-term, we hope that Jeferson Quero (#7 Brewers prospect on MLB.com) continues to advance through the system and impress. He's only 19 and just got promoted to A+ this year, so you're looking several years out for him to help at the MLB level.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I believe that when the season's over the Padres have to either offer him arby (and therefore be on the hook for a fairly sizeable chunk of money) or they have to decline arbitration and he becomes an unrestricted free agent, able to sign anywhere for any amount of money. The Padres couldn't trade him until they offer arby, so that would certainly limit his trade value. Either way is a risk for the Padres, and I'm glad it's one the Brewers won't have to make. If he does become a FA, I would imagine he would get a one-year/"prove it" deal for less than he'd probably get if he goes through the arbitration process. That, of course, is assuming the troubles continue. If he straightens things out and dominates through September, he'll make the decision easier.

According to http://powerrankingsguru.com/mlb/strength-of-schedule.php, the Brewers have had a fairly easy schedule (22nd), but the Dodgers have played the easiest schedule, the Cards are #28, and Astros and Padres are #26 and 27. Since good teams don’t have to play against themselves, they tend to have easier schedules than the bad teams. If the Dodgers had to face their own pitching every night, they wouldn’t score as many runs. Thankfully for them, they don’t have to face their own guys. That works for the Brewers as well. Now, this is simply strength of schedule, and not “strength of opposing pitching staff,” but they often go hand-in-hand.

I just don’t see a reason to bring a good prospect up and accrue service time just to sit on the bench. We’re not going to sit Renfroe, who has been one of the team’s best hitters. He might get traded this off-season, but he’s going to play nearly every day in September. So is Yelich. We have a need for a CF. We have three in AAA to choose from. Bring up one of them and let him play everyday. I have no problem with Taylor sitting on the bench, getting a start a week or so. Then we can flip him for a prospect this off-season.

Assuming a CF prospect is brought up, McCutcheon will get any starts in the corners when Yelich and Renfroe aren’t out there, so the 5th OF is not going to see much time. No sense accruing service time on a prospect in that role. Bring a prospect up to start, DFA Davis, and hold onto Taylor. This off-season, Stearns can sort out who he’s going to keep and who he’s going to trade to put together the ‘23 OF.

Every team plays both good and bad teams, so how are the Brewers different than other teams the "pad their offensive stats" against worse pitching? Our offense is hard to watch because we only seem to strike out or hit home runs, which isn't really fun to watch, but runs scored are runs scored.

Rosenthal was injured when he was acquired, so it appears that the thought process when acquiring him was to get him on the roster by September so he could be on the playoff roster, where he could help the team in the most important games. Unfortunately, it's looking like (A) he probably won't be healthy enough to add to the September roster, and (B) our playoff hopes are dwindling, so we might not have anyone playing in those important games.

They set their budget every year, and I would assume they leave some room for anticipated profit margins. That just means that they don't know what will happen in any given year, but if things go as expected, they plan to make some money instead of losing money. When they go over budget, they are incurring expenses that they will have to pay, but they still don't know how the year will play out, so they could lose money if they don't meet projected revenues. That's a calculated risk, so they are only going to go over budget if they think the move will help them meet or exceed projected revenues. I guess they could also willingly lose money in a year if they think they could win it all, but that would be a big gamble, especially for a small-market team. Going into this year, they did not want to rely on Hiura (who could blame them after the last couple of seasons) so they went over budget to sign McCutchen as their DH. They were looking to make the playoffs and thought his signing would help them get there. They didn't want to sign someone to a multi-year deal, and didn't have a lot of money, so McCutcheon was what they could get for 1-year / $8.5M. With the downturn in attendance, they are probably looking at losing money this year. That will be even worse if they don't make the playoffs, as the team gets a bump in revenues for that, and the thought that they'd probably make the playoffs probably played into their willingness to sign McCutcheon. They started this year with a payroll around $132M, and I would guess that will go down to start next year, as their projections will be adjusted to fit the new, lower attendance numbers. Attendance is down 13.4% for the Brewers this year, and 13.4% of $132M is $17,688,000 or right about what Hader could get in arby next year. Don't expect any big signings this offseason, don't expect Wong's option to get exercised, and expect some of the prospects to be up, as their league minimum salaries will help the Brewers stay under budget. I also wouldn't be surprised to see some of the arby guys traded, but that may be as much of a "baseball move" as it is a "free up salary move."

Yeah, I'm sure different teams will handle their situations differently, but I like that they came up with some kind of compromise to get players to the majors faster. I'd hate to have to sit through two months of some Taylor/Davis-type combo next year just because we didn't want to bring a better player up too quickly. I'm excited to see what Frelick brings to the table, in large part because the Brewers have so many low OBP/high SLG guys on the roster. A guy who makes good contact, gets on base, and plays good defense will be a nice addition. Plus, every guy we have playing for league minimum helps the team keep some of the higher-priced players.

Alexander looked pretty good last night. He had a horrible July, but has helped out the team a lot more than anyone would have imagined to start this season.

Anything can happen, but if he gets called up and plays well during his time in the MLB this year, I'd bet that he'll be the opening day starting CF next year so that they can get a draft pick if he ends up in the top three vote getters for Rookie of the Year next year. If he comes up and lays an egg, then they'll be justified in keeping him down to start 2023, but I don't think that's what they're hoping for. The addition of the draft pick compensation was instituted to stop teams from doing what you're saying, and I think the Brewers will probably opt for the potential draft pick in Frelick's case.

Yeah, whether it's concern over his family or if the Brewers pitching lab saw something mechanical, you have to wonder if the Brewers thought there might be something that would take some time to figure out. That could have been a reason to trade him at the deadline rather than waiting until the offseason when his value could be lower. I expect he'll "find it" and be dominant again at some point, but the Brewers needed to trade him prior to next season, and it's looking like they made the right call timing-wise.

Thanks. I agree, if he's out of options they'll hang onto him. He can help them for a few more years as a 4th OF if necessary.

Thanks for sharing this. I've enjoyed watching Hiura this year, but now I'm looking for this. Last night against the Dodgers, it was spot on. As soon as a ball was thrown low in the zone, it ended up in the bleachers.

So, if today is the day, it might line up with Brosseau having to leave the game last night and Peterson hopefully getting close to ready to return. They'd be short-handed in the infield until Peterson's return, but they could put Brosseau on the IL and call up Frelick. Then Peterson can replace one of the backup OFs when he's back. I guess it really depends on when Peterson is going to be ready. They wouldn't want to have Yelich, Frelick, Renfroe, Davis, Taylor, and McCutcheon all on the roster for too long. That brings up another point. Is it for sure that Davis will be the OF who goes, or is there a chance Taylor is the odd man out? With Hiura's play, McCutcheon will probably be getting some of his reps as the primary backup corner OF, so Taylor/Davis is really only on the roster as the backup CF, where Davis is clearly the better defender. Offensively, neither has been very good, but Davis gets on base (.349 OBP), he just doesn't have any power, while Taylor has been another "low OBP/high SLG" guy that the Brewers have too many of at the moment. I'd expect them to hold on to Taylor, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if Davis stays on the MLB team and Taylor is optioned to AAA. Someone with more knowledge of roster moves can correct me if Taylor is out of options, but he's still pre-arby, so I hope he could be sent to AAA if that's the decision.

No, he didn't say anything snarky. You want your players to be competitive and want to win. His take ("I don't know how many bites of the apples we can take in the next few years") has to be a short-term view. He'll only be here for a short while and wants to win with the group currently in the room. The Brewers have made a conscious decision to take a long-term view. Sometimes those will clash, but I'm a big fan of the long-term strategy that Brewers' management is employing. Unfortunately, some players took the trade deadline as a "gut shot," and it probably cost them some games. It turns out that Hader has imploded and the team seems to be better off having made the moves they made. All in all, I'm glad to see Lauer hold down the Dodgers for five scoreless innings yesterday, helping the team secure a much-needed victory. Hopefully, the "fog in the room" has cleared and the team remembers that they are good, starts playing to their true talent level, and grabs a playoff spot.