wntrtxn21
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Everything posted by wntrtxn21
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Padres Trade Brewing?
wntrtxn21 replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
You have the Mets giving up a pretty decent controllable catcher and one of the top starters on the market and receiving a rental catcher, a #4 type OF, and a minor league pitcher who shows promise, but nowhere near TOR. I'd love the trade if I was the Padres and Brewers. The Mets would be getting royally screwed. -
Padres Trade Brewing?
wntrtxn21 replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Lauer isn't anything the Brewers don't already have. He's a mediocre pitcher and pitching in a pitcher's ball park. How would he play out in Milwaukee? -
Padres Trade Brewing?
wntrtxn21 replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Your suggesting the Crew deals away 2 players (Grisham and Freddy Peralta) but gets 2 back in Yates and Wheeler.. Does that even get close on Baseball Trade Values trade evaluator?? The Mets owners would run the GM out of town on a rail if he made your trade. Syndergaard and Wheeler for Urias and Peralta?? The Brewers would get Yates and Wheeler for a reliever (Peralta) and an OF who is not in the top 125 top prospects. -
Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
wntrtxn21 replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Take on all of Greinke and it might not be too crazy. I posed this on Twitter the other day. One stop shopping in Arizona: Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray and Archie Bradley If the Brewers could eat a substantial amount of the 2 years+ $80m+ left on Greinke's deal, might Arizona be willing to deal Ray and Bradley for a lesser prospect package. I still think it would cost Dubon, Ray and Lutz type package but, if the financials work, I think that trade immediately vaults the Brewers above the Cubs and Cardinals in the Central. A rotation that has a top 3 of Woodruff, Ray and Greinke would be real nice. The problem is the payroll would approach $170-180M. Not affordable in any way, shape, or form. -
After all the rumors and sitting two days from the deadline, I think I am anticipating the Brewers making 3-4 deals. I think the Brewers won't land the big fish (Syndergaard, Wheeler, etc...) but will land multiple smaller fish in the hopes of catching lightning in a bottle. My anticipated acquisitions, with what I think the costs will be, are: -Danny Duffy from KC: 2 years $30.75m left on his contract. Royals will pick up some of the salary with a prospect like Troy Stokes being sent to KC. -Dylan Bundy from Baltimore: FA after 2021. I anticipate him costing a little more, someone like Trent Grisham. -Alex Colome from Chicago: Simply because he's a White Sox reliever and we know we have to get one of those annually. I think cost on him will be high. Corey Ray high. If everything comes together for the rotation, that could be a sexy rotation. What do you see in Dylan Bundy? 5.24 ERA - 5.34 FIP. Last year gave up 41 dingers and 23 already this year. I wouldn't give up Grisham or any other 1/2 way decent prospect for him. Duffy 4.42 ERA - 4.74 FIP 1.5 HRs/9 3+ BBs/9. The Royals would have to pickup at least 2/3 of the contract to make him attractive to Milwaukee. Colome would be real nice, but his contract might make Stearns shy away. $7.35M this year and arby eligible in 2020. He's likely to get a pretty substantial increase which would make him too expensive for the Crew. Maybe flip him in the off season?
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I think so. But we all have to start looking at things from a far less logical perspective when talking about a potential deal with the Mets. Stroman only makes sense to ME if they want to turn around and flip him for more prospects. They did not pay much for him. They got two guys who aren't great prospects. But I still don't think they'd do a trade that only helps them this year. I think it'd have to be someone under team control through next season at least. Otherwise, them trading Syndergaard for rentals, thereby lessening the prospect haul makes so much less sense. I don't want to buy personally, but who says no to Grisham+Burnes+Arcia+another one of our prospects not named Hiura/Turang? Or take it a step further and throw in Dominic Smith and we add Shaw and maybe Turang? IF defense is a big problem for the Mets, I'm trading Burnes as an up and coming young pitcher, I'm not lowering his value to what he's done this year if I'm the Brewers, they get Shaw to man 3rd for the next couple years, they get Arcia as a defensive stalwart, they get Grisham who could be called up today and can actually play OF defense. We get a good young 1B who probably can play LF if you need and I guess you hope Syndergaard goes back to being the type of pitcher he was in 2016. Personally, I want to see what Grisham can actually do, is he really THIS good? But even if you do trade him, at least you're not trading him or any of these guys for a rental. This is the only type of deal that I could get behind. One that costs us, but where we get back controllable young talent. Mets probably want more, but I thing Turang is a really valuable asset and I think his advanced approach will see him in Biloxi by the 2nd half of next year. So if he's going, I'd want a good, young, big-league bat coming back. Burnes' value has taken a huge hit this year compared to last. Maybe you're not lowering his value, but MLB GMs are. Until Burnes can show consistent improvement, his value will remain much lower than last year. Arcia is a below avg. SS. Almost every team in baseball has a SS equal to or better than Arcia. Grisham is doing well. but not even close to a top 100 player.
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Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
wntrtxn21 replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Harvey has been beyond awful so far this year. He hasn't pitched in 10 days since being DFA'd by the Angels. I don't see him being any better than Smith or Wilkerson. I doubt any gm will waste time on Harvey other than a minor lg. contract. -
Roark for Ernesto who is hitting a whopping .236 in rookie ball and Williams who is the poster boy for AAAA players? A starter for two bums? Burnes, Lutz, and Fry would be part of a pkg for Ray, not anywhere close to a complete pkg. Burnes has regressed horrendously, Lutz is hitting .241 with 119 Ks in 362 ABs, and Fry is just now getting to Appleton. The D'backs GM would be fired on the spot if he made that deal. Gray hit .182 in Rk ball last year and is even worse this year. Brown has been so horrible at AAA (5.98 ERA - 111 hits and 58 ERs in only 86 IPs) he has next to no value other than a throw-in. While the Brewers would love to make any of your deals, the other teams would laugh hysterically.
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Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
wntrtxn21 replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Are we talking about the same Ivan Nova with the 5.23 ERA - 5.22 FIP. 150 hits in only 125 IPs. 73 ERs and 1.7 HR per 9. Making over $9.1M and a rental to boot? No thanks! -
Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
wntrtxn21 replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Why?? Right now they ABSOLUTELY need a starter. Not saying Thor or someone like that, but they absolutely cannot, CANNOT use the "bullpen" approach, or use Wilkerson etc as Chacin's replacement. Not in the middle of a pennant race. That would be downright negligent. Because the Brewers have about 5 holes to fill, and if they’re going to use their very limited amount of resources to try and plug them, I’d rather go and get a guy that is likely to make a significant impact now but won’t command the price that Thor will based on name alone. Diaz is a great opportunity to buy on a bad first half and hope the Mets are dumb enough to under sell on him, which they might be. I'd be wary of Diaz. He is having a horrendous year. In his last 30 games he has allowed at least one hit in 21 games and multiple hits in 9 of those 30 games. Hits and walks are way up over last year. There has to be a reason he went from a monster to a mop-up guy almost overnite. -
Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
wntrtxn21 replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Ray is a FA in 2021 and the prospects they'd want would be enormous. I don't know if the Brewers have the type of prospects the D'backs would accept for Ray or if Stearns would empty the farm for 1 1/3 years with Ray. Greinke would cost $83-84M through 2021. The Brewers would have zero interest unless the D'backs included a huge chunk of money and the prospect cost was reasonable. -
I think the move is Thames goes on the IL.
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I'm with you...this has the smell of something else being in the works..because to do it right now before a series with the Cubs when they will face two lefties?? Although, I did hear some radio chatter that PERHAPS they may play Moose at SS. The radio channel was from Chicago.
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Woodruff to IL with Strained Oblique
wntrtxn21 replied to PeaveyFury's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think Chacin likely would have made his next start. The well is getting pretty dry as far as viable starting pitching options. I like Supak as well, but there has to be a reason why they haven't even promoted him to AAA yet. For a guy who is taking a 40-man spot and has been near dominant in AA, that doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I want Houser to stay in the pen, but I think they are going to be forced to put him back in the rotation. I get the feeling he's ahead of Peralta in the rotation pecking order currently, as he was just moved back to the pen last week. He should have no problem taking starts again, as only one turn has been missed. Honestly, I know it isn't inspiring, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Houser and Burch Smith take Woody and Chacin's spots in the rotation. Smith has been bleh as a mop-up reliever, but he was pretty dominant in his time as a starter at AAA. Otherwise Wilkerson, Shelby Miller, Derby, Zach Brown and Thomas Jankins are currently holding down AAA rotation spots. I think if Nelson comes back up, it will be exclusively as a reliever. So what's the deal with Wilkerson. Is he hurt? This guy is lights out in AAA but gets yanked off Brewers squad like weather changes here. Jason Vargas is available for trade from the Mets. He has one of the best change ups in the majors and he knows post season play. Also, Ian Kennedy can be picked up from the Royals for next to nothing. Two veteran arms that the Brewers need. One starter and one reliever. They need both. Vargas and his 4.66 FIP isn't any better than what they already have. Kennedy makes a boat load of money and is not practical. -
Plus the $5M buyout in 2021 brings the total to approx. $21M for one year. Leake isn't worth even 1/2 that much. Dont think you did your math right, it would be $11mil for 2020 plus the $5mil buyout so $16Mil Plus the $5 he is owed this year = $21M
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Duran still hasn't progressed beyond A+.. Rooker is an OF who is injured for the second time in 4 years..Thorpe is a pitcher who got shelled in AAA ball. Why would the Brewers trade their second best starting pitcher for any of those guys? Stearns get very little in return and loses a reliable #4.
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Plus the $5M buyout in 2021 brings the total to approx. $21M for one year. Leake isn't worth even 1/2 that much.
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Rays have expressed interest in Jesus Aguilar
wntrtxn21 replied to Brewcrewin07's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
My goodness, what pitch did he learn how to throw once he got to the pros? And whoever taught him that pitch, offer him a promotion here. Are you suggesting that he was a subpar minor league pitcher that suddenly blossomed in the pros? He had an unlucky ERA in AAA over 27 innings this year and was otherwise unhittable prior to that. I'm not sold on Poche either. He's allowed 17 ERs in only 22 IPs. A whopping 6 HRs in those 22 IPs. Yes he does strikeout guys, but the runs allowed and especially the dingers are disturbing. How will that play out at Miller Park? -
Rays have expressed interest in Jesus Aguilar
wntrtxn21 replied to Brewcrewin07's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
This is a really good post that touches on a lot of great points. I also think the fact that Shaw has been primarily playing 1B in San Antonio is foreshadowing that a move like this may actually be ahead. I know it’s not ideal to lose a right-handed power bat from the roster, but I my sense is they would rather not waste two roster spots on a straight platoon at 1B (yes, I know Thames can stand in the OF in a pinch). If you move Aguilar and call up Shaw (assuming they believe he’s back to form) the positional flexibility all of a sudden looks much better among those that can play at the corner infield spots. Moustakas- 3B / 2B Shaw - 1B / 3B Grandal - C / 1B Thames - 1B Shaw, Thames, and Moustakas all bat LH. That leaves Shaw w/o a position unless someone is dealt. -
Rays have expressed interest in Jesus Aguilar
wntrtxn21 replied to Brewcrewin07's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Team option not player option Three different sites list Thames' 2020 contract as a Player Option, not a team option. -
2019 Most Likely to Get Traded?
wntrtxn21 replied to balsamlaker's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
With Woody going down for 6 weeks, I WISH you were wrong, but I don't think you are. I wonder what teams think of Grisham, where he'd be ranked to other executives. If they want to consider him to be a top 75 prospect, I'd deal him now. If they want to value him lower, I don't see any point in trading him. I'm a little skeptical that he's as good as he's hitting right now just as I was a little skeptical or Ray last year(for the record, Ray has only been bad for a small sample size and has been injured and Grisham has been much better, so not comparing them, just saying I'm not all in on Grisham being a middle of the order or top of the order bat). I really think the best thing to do would be to just stand pat for the most part. You have to move a few guys who you won't have room for on the 40 man and you can get solid relievers in return, but I'd just go with what we have if we're not going to trade Grandal and Moose. This year's iteration of the Brewers just doesn't look strong enough to contend this year. I actually think one of the biggest problems is that David Stearns got this thing turned around too fast. You look at the Astros and Cubs and they had 4-5 years picking in the top 5. And of course they hit on so many other players as well. I mean, hard to "fault" Stearns for turning things around more quickly, but at least for this year, we're kinda stuck in the "in-between." At best, we're a team that sneaks into the playoffs, at worst we win 80 games in a year in which the owner devoted more resources than ever before. So my answer to this would be; MAYBE Hader(I remember a month ago someone posting a hypothetical with Alvarez in it and 3 others....that would look awfully nice) but only if we're blown away. And then any guys who likely won't be around next year. The good but not great prospects who likely won't quite crack the 40 man, and upcoming FA's. Grandal should be able to get you a top 100-ish type prospect and potentially a couple more lotto picks. Moose is having a career year. Jeffress isn't as good as he was last year, but still has good enough stuff and we have enough talented right handed arms to replace him next year. The absolute worst case for me would be to see the Brewers move Turang as the centerpiece to try and get back a starter who's just not going to put them over the hump. Slash what payroll you can this year, try and get some MLB ready players or guys who are at least closer to the bigs if possible and re-load and make another run at it next year. In the meantime, give Peralta, Burnes the ball every 5th day, bring Shaw back up and try and get these guys going so they feel good heading into next year. That'd be my preference. Ray hasn't been that good throughout his career. Besides this year's rehab ABs he has never had an avg. over .247 and an OBP over .323.. One yr. with 27 HRs, but 176 Ks. The way Jeffress has regressed this year I doubt he'd bring much more than a bag of seeds. You're right that he is easily replacable. -
The Brewers very quickly become the Marlins and the laughing stock of all baseball. Losing 105-110 games for 2-4 years in a row won't gain many fans. Your 5 year window is really 2 years because you would want to trade any valuable player for future prospects if they didn't win it all in back-to-back years.
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Leake isn't worth the approx $15-16M (IF Sea. throws in $5M) he would cost for 2020. He's a #5 and that's far too much for a #5.
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Again, a very logical take, couldn’t agree more. So why not add what we need to fix our biggest holes and become better than competitive and compete for a championship. Can’t we possibly get better prospects than we give up after next year’s season by the trading of Yelich Hader Woodruff Davies Arcia? Of course by trading those guys you guarantee the Brewers will be the Marlins for the next 3-5 years minimum. Prospects may turn out or may not turn into anything. Will any of them turn into a Woodruff, Hader, or Yellich. Chances are extremely against it.

