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brewerfan82

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Everything posted by brewerfan82

  1. brewerfan82
    Definitely looks more interesting if you ignore what he's done in the majors so far. 2017-19 Minor League Stats (all AAA): Note: There's 45 homers and 114 walks in those 935 PAs. Looks like your prototypical AAAA player, but he is the right age (27) to have a breakout season.
  2. brewerfan82
    Updated the charts to include Gyorko. Frazier and Shaw have been better, but to your point not significantly. That said, Gyorko still feels a little redundant when we have four 3rd base options that are also RH already (Urias, Robertson, Green, and Mathias). Even if they're just a step better than Gyorko against right handers, I think Shaw and Frazier are still better fits to throw into the mix. Or maybe there's a trade candidate that could fill that role better than all these guys. Otherwise, I think we're hoping Urias (who's still only 23 and has room to grow) or Robertson will show better numbers against righties as they have more opportunities.
  3. brewerfan82
    Here you go! 2018-20 vs. RHP: 2018-20 vs. LHP: I usually default to the 3-year splits, but as others pointed out Shaw's and Robertson's numbers are heavily skewed from their 2018 seasons, so here are the 2-year splits as well: 2019-20 vs. RHP: 2019-20 vs. LHP: edit: Added Frazier and Gyorko to the mix
  4. brewerfan82
    I doubt signing Boxberger is a sign of anything, he's basically a lottery ticket at this point.
  5. brewerfan82
    Before anyone has a meltdown about not getting a big name 3rd baseman, here's a reminder of what we do have already... 2017-19 Minor League Stats: 2018-20 vs RHP (MLB): 2018-20 vs LHP (MLB): Due to sample sizes, you can probably place less/no weight on Robertson's minor league numbers and Green and Mathias' major league numbers, but there's reason to be hopeful that some combo of Urias (still only 23 years old), Robertson (27), and/or Green (27) could put together some nice production this season and Mathias (26) looked like he could be a nice utility player as well last year. That said, a veteran, left handed bat would be nice, but I don't think it's the end of the world going into Spring Training with this group fighting for a share of the spot. If it does look like it's going to be an issue, there may be more possibilities to bring someone in as teams drop players in the spring and players become available via trade during the season.
  6. brewerfan82
    Turner or a trade were our only real chance to pick up a fulltime 3B to fill that spot. Anyone added at this point is likely to platoon or mitigate the risk in whatever we have between Urias, Robertson, and Green. With that said, I think people are still viewing this as some sort of "black hole" in the roster, and it really isn't. Yes, there's risk because they're unproven (hence it'd still be nice to get a versatile veteran player to help), but we have young, talented options for that spot. So if we're not going to add a proven All-Star to fill 3B, I don't think we can expect to add someone without a fair amount of warts at this point. With that in mind, a left handed bat would compliment those players well, and someone that can be a bit versatile on defense would help. Which leads to a pretty nice fit for a Shaw return. But, with all that said, it certainly would be more exciting if we swung a trade for a Rios or Seager or someone we're not even considering. I just don't think it's *necessary* and possibly it'd be a better use of resources to get another arm in the rotation instead. Edit: Forgot we still have Mark Mathias in the mix as well (of course another righty). Looks like we might have a good old fashioned Spring Training battle at 3rd this year!
  7. brewerfan82
    But why Shaw? He wasn't as bad last year as he was in 2019 but he was still pretty terrible for a corner infielder. True, however, outside of Turner, we're down to a lot of guys with a lot of warts. Cabrera is probably the most consistent of those left, but Shaw does have an upside that matches anyone available and his defense is probably a bit of a separator: 2018-20: With that said, you can see what the projection systems like about Urias in that regard too. But if Turner or someone via trade can't be had, I could see Shaw being another nice guy to split time at 3B/1B/2B (if needed) and provide some nice defense. If he bounces back on offense, you get a steal. I'd probably still lean towards Cabrera for that kind of role, but wouldn't be too disappointed seeing what Shaw's got left.
  8. brewerfan82
    I don't quite get the "he'll be an albatross in two years" talk. Do we really think $13M for a year is crippling? Everyone seems pretty confident in how he can help this year, we're only talking about *risking* two years beyond that. If he starts to dip I would think his production would still be similar to how Braun's been the past couple years and we've been paying him $20M per year. Not to mention we'll likely have the DH role that he can slide into if his defense turns into an issue.
  9. brewerfan82
    I don't mind letting the Dodgers off the hook if it means we're improved as well. Price is still a good pitcher and would be a good compliment to the rotation: 2018-20: And Rios would be a legit, young bat to add: If you can get some of Price's contract paid as well, I don't really see the downside if you're paying ~$10M per year the next two years for Price and Rios combined.
  10. brewerfan82
    That'd be awesome. Even if Rios can't stick at 3rd long term, having some combo of him and Hiura covering 1B and DH after this year isn't too shabby either.
  11. brewerfan82
    Since we don't know what he'll be getting, is there threshhold on a 3 year deal that you'd be okay with? If it was only $10M per year would you still have an issue? $13M per okay? He just doesn't seem to be declining to the point that he wouldn't be at least a nice DH option in year 2 and 3 to me (similar feelings on Braun right now if the DH were in effect).
  12. brewerfan82
    No one's going to pick us over the Dodgers, but it's baseball, it's certainly possible to beat them in a series and it's definitely not going to ruin my day thinking about it in February.
  13. brewerfan82
    Not every team can compete for the World Series every year. There are going to be waves of contention, especially for a team like the Brewers, and for the most part this has been a fun, competitive team under MA and DS. They were one game from the World Series just three years ago. It's not impossible! And while this year's team doesn't look like it'll be a World Series contender, it does look like it can compete in the division and has a serious shot at making the playoffs again.
  14. brewerfan82
    Valid comparison, however I'd also argue that Turner is aging better than Braun, seems to have a stronger desire to keep playing, and we also have a bigger need for him on this team than Braun: 2019-20: That said, I'd love Braun back for a season as well!
  15. brewerfan82
    As a fan, if you want the team to make a possibly reckless move, then it's probably a good thing to hear the owner is in on it. Personally, I'm feeling up for a little reckless Give'm three years Mark!
  16. brewerfan82
    That was interesting. San Diego makes all those moves and still doesn't come within seven games of first? That's rough. Same with the White Sox. San Diego was 6 GB last year in a 60 game season (equivalent of 16.2 GB in a 162 game season), so they have them making up some ground, but the Dodgers adding Bauer certainly didn't help. The White Sox arguably overachieved last year, but I am a little more surprised by their projections. Either way, it's a good reminder that winning the offseason doesn't necessarily mean winning the regular season. That said, winning on paper doesn't either, but I like where we stand! Let's add some more!
  17. brewerfan82
    Good competitive game tonight against the Nuggets with Holiday out. That said, the broadcaster on NBA TV keeps pronouncing Giannis "Yawn-niece" and it's driving me nuts, lol.
  18. brewerfan82
    I wonder if the Dodgers are trying to unload a contract before offering Turner more money so they can avoid the next tier of luxury tax penalties. Turner may know this to some extent and is holding out for that, in which case I wonder how long he's willing to wait on that. Otherwise, I hope no one bails them out and if they do sign Turner they get hit hard this year and in the coming years.
  19. brewerfan82
    To put his defense at 3rd into perspective: - He hasn't played there in 5 years, and prior to that he had a UZR/150 of -27.4 over 429 innings played at the position (UZR reference: https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/uzr/) - Since 2002 (the furthest back I could get data for UZR on FanGraphs), of the 288 players that had at least 400 innings played at 3rd, his UZR/150 of -27.4 comes in 284th - Dead last on that list? Ryan Braun with a UZR/150 of -42.8
  20. brewerfan82
    Players that OBP'd above .325 in 2020: Cain (.429), Robertson (.417), Yelich (.356), Wong (.350), Garcia (.333), Pina (.333), Vogelbach (.331) Players that OBP'd avove .325 from 2018-20: Yelich (.405), Cain (.361), Robertson (.356), Narvaez (.349), Wong (.349), Hiura (.338), Vogelbach (.337) Seems like we have a handful of guys that could hit that mark this year. Six of our eight projected starters (Yelich, Cain, Wong, Narvaez, Hiura, and Garcia) have done it either as recently as last year or over the past 3 seasons combined and currently a Robertson/Urias combo at 3rd has a good shot at matching that as well. Arcia's really the only guy I'd be shocked if he got on at that rate.
  21. brewerfan82
    This was an interesting read: https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/cardinal-beat/new-brewer-wong-says-cardinals-didnt-have-dialogue-with-him-but-harbors-no-ill-will/article_64235715-b9c9-50ce-a796-54f151af548b.html I found this bit interesting. It shows that his signing didn't just happen out of nowhere and is a reminder of how well DS and team keep things close to the vest: He's also excited to hit in AmFam Field: Between his defense, on base ability, and "old school swagger", he sounds like he'll be the LoCain of the infield: And he's afraid of the Pfister hotel ghosts, lol:
  22. brewerfan82
    I think it comes down to not wanting to have the trade blow up in their faces if the guy they trade away helps a rival take a division title or pennant from you......perhaps in multiple seasons. Having to face a guy 19 games a season can really piss a fan base off if he turns into Yelich or Garrett Cole. They know that trading for prospect packages is always iffy so why take the chance when you can get a comparable package without the headache of having the player come back to bite you. Can’t say I blame them too much. True, but theoretically if we don't trade for Bryant someone else probably will and there's a chance those players end up better than the guys you would have given them, and if you're trading with them at least you have some say in what they're getting. On the flipside, why should the Cubs care? If they're selling and presumably willingly taking a step back in the division for a couple years, why not gut a rival a little so they're not as strong when you're ready to compete again? Obviously it's a very human element that doesn't really make sense logically and has more to do with optics. So I get it, but I'd hope our GM never closes the door on a possible negotiation just because it "might upset the fans" down the road.
  23. brewerfan82
    I think that when some posters here say “platoon,” they mean that there is a lefty and righty at a position, and not the traditional meaning where one always plays vs LHP and the other always plays vs RHP. If I’m wrong, then a lot of people think Hiura, Garcia and Urias should be sitting around 80% of the time so that a random “trash heap” pick up can start just because he’s left handed. I agree with this sentiment. Maybe we should be saying "Player A compliments Player B" well because of their splits. If you're picking someone up to be the backup at a position, it makes sense if they can cover some of the starter's weaknesses.
  24. brewerfan82
    Using everyone's favorite trade simulator in a slightly different manner, this seems pretty comparable to some of the ideas thrown around here from a Brewers' standpoint:
  25. brewerfan82
    If he can play 1st, I guess he also looks kind of like a Hiura clone (but with a higher walk rate and lower strikeout rate) which makes that trade possibility even stronger.
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