brewerfan82

First, this is a pretty cool resource I didn't know about: https://www.fangraphs.com/tools/free-agent-tracker Second, it's January 19th and if you sort the free agents by projected WAR, you get the following percentages of players still unsigned: >0.5 proj WAR (70 total free agents): 40.0% unsigned >1.0 proj WAR (48 total free agents): 35.4% unsigned >1.5 proj WAR (29 total free agents): 31.0% unsigned >2.0 proj WAR (19 total free agents): 31.6% unsigned >2.5 proj WAR (13 total free agents): 38.5% unsigned >3.0 proj WAR (8 total free agents): 50.0% unsigned Pretty unbelievable, but also a reminder that any teams with money to spend still have a lot of options available out there.

Well technically, Walker is a RH bat against lefties... He's been a bit iffy from year to year vs. LHP, but adding Walker does add the option to play him at 2B and Perez at 3rd against lefties. It's more of a depth/flexibility move, but I do think it's a worthwhile improvement to the roster if he can be had for the right price. I think ideally everyone would love an impact bat that can both solidify 2B to start the year and also crush lefties in place of Shaw at 3B, but I don't know if that's realistically an option within the team's budget at this point. Add in that our two best middle infield prospects coming up are RH bats, I think you could do a lot worse than adding a flexible, switch hitting, veteran player like Walker to round out the roster. [pre]Rnk Player (Age, Positions) vsRHP vsLHP Total vsRHP vsLHP Total 3YR Def --------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- ------- Travis Shaw* (28, 3B/1B/2B) .850 / .668 / .807 120 / 74 / 110 7.5 Neil Walker^ (33, 1B/RF/2B/3B) .780 / .724 / .767 111 / 98 / 107 4.8 Cory Spangenberg* (28, 3B/2B/LF) .757 / .512 / .696 105 / 37 / 88 -5.5 Hernan Perez (27, 3B/OF/2B/SS) .666 / .786 / .706 73 / 103 / 83 1.1[/pre]

Yeah... for the 7/8 spot in the lineup, with Spang/Perez here and Hiura/Dubon on their way, I'll let them battle it out this year. If I can get a Walker for <$5mil to solidify things a bit I'll take it, but I think anything more at this point's a little unrealistic after the Grandal signing.

The big thing that jumps out at me is the affirmation that a Spangenberg/Perez platoon does look pretty effective to begin the year with no further moves. With that said, assuming there isn't a lot of money left to sign a bigger impact bat, Neil Walker would round out the offense pretty nicely. A righty Perez, lefty Spangenberg, and switch hitting Walker would give Counsell all sorts of flexibility to play with. Throw in Pina, Thames, and Gamel, and you've got a ton of depth and options coming off the bench.

SRB's list a couple posts back inspired me to update the 3 year splits from the original post, removing players who have signed and adding in a couple that have been discussed recently. Note, players are listed in order of total wRC+ and FanGraph's Def stat listed should be taken with a huge grain of salt: [pre]IN HOUSE 3YR OPS 3YR wRC+ Rnk Player (Age, Positions) vsRHP vsLHP Total vsRHP vsLHP Total 3YR Def --------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- ------- Travis Shaw* (28, 3B/1B/2B) .850 / .668 / .807 120 / 74 / 110 7.5 Cory Spangenberg* (28, 3B/2B/LF) .757 / .512 / .696 105 / 37 / 88 -5.5 Hernan Perez (27, 3B/OF/2B/SS) .666 / .786 / .706 73 / 103 / 83 1.1 Orlando Arcia (24, SS) .662 / .658 / .661 70 / 75 / 72 7.9 Tyler Saladino (29, 3B/SS/2B) .623 / .641 / .629 67 / 77 / 70 5.8 2B FREE AGENTS 3YR OPS 3YR wRC+ Rnk Player (Age, Positions) vsRHP vsLHP Total vsRHP vsLHP Total 3YR Def --------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- ------- Asdrubal Cabrera^ (32, 2B/SS/3B) .788 / .796 / .790 113 / 117 / 114 2.6 Derek Dietrich* (29, 2B/LF/3B) .782 / .701 / .767 114 / 94 / 110 -15.3 Marwin Gonzalez^ (29, 1B/LF/2B/SS/3B) .786 / .753 / .776 115 / 106 / 112 -13.5 Neil Walker^ (33, 1B/RF/2B/3B) .780 / .724 / .767 111 / 98 / 107 4.8 Josh Harrison (31, 2B/3B/OF) .694 / .786 / .715 85 / 109 / 91 3.6 3B FREE AGENTS 3YR OPS 3YR wRC+ Rnk Player (Age, Positions) vsRHP vsLHP Total vsRHP vsLHP Total 3YR Def --------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- ------- Manny Machado (26, SS/3B) .841 / .891 / .855 121 / 136 / 125 19.0 Asdrubal Cabrera^ (32, 2B/SS/3B) .788 / .796 / .790 113 / 117 / 114 2.6 Marwin Gonzalez^ (29, 1B/LF/2B/SS/3B) .786 / .753 / .776 115 / 106 / 112 -13.5 Derek Dietrich* (29, 2B/LF/3B) .782 / .701 / .767 114 / 94 / 110 -15.3 Mike Moustakas* (30, 3B) .827 / .746 / .804 115 / 96 / 109 -0.4 Wilmer Flores (27, SS/3B/1B) .743 / .829 / .771 101 / 120 / 108 -11.5 Neil Walker^ (33, 1B/RF/2B/3B) .780 / .724 / .767 111 / 98 / 107 4.8 Danny Valencia (34, 1B/RF/3B) .699 / .867 / .751 90 / 135 / 104 -32.1 Jose Bautista (38, LF/RF/3B) .748 / .686 / .733 105 / 89 / 101 -25.6 Matt Davidson (28, 3B/1B) .691 / .823 / .726 84 / 124 / 95 -20.1 Josh Harrison (31, 2B/3B/OF) .694 / .786 / .715 85 / 109 / 91 3.6[/pre] Edit: Nice find SRB, added Davidson to the list!

Interesting, I didn't know about the Valencia/Butler incident. Here's an article on it: https://www.sfgate.com/athletics/article/A-s-clubhouse-fight-Danny-Valencia-Billy-9177957.php I think I would have punched Butler in the head as well, lol.

Love the Grandal acquisition! What a luxury at one of the few positions we had a clear ability to upgrade. 2016-18 Catcher Offensive Rankings (750 PAs min, 33 players total): HR: Grandal (2nd, 73), Pina (30th, 20) fWAR: Grandal (3rd, 9.0), Pina (22nd, 3.3) wRC+: Grandal (4th, 116), Pina (22nd, 91) SLG: Grandal (4th, .467), Pina (18th, .409) OPS: Grandal (5th, .799), Pina (21st, .729) BB%: Grandal (5th, 12.1%), Pina (22nd, 6.6%) wOBA: Grandal (6th, .342), Pina (20th, .314) OBP: Grandal (12th, .332), Pina (18th, .320) 2016-18 Catcher Defensive Rankings (1500 innings caught min, 36 players total): DRS: Grandal (1st, 39), Pina (9th, 19) Pina would have been acceptable as the starter, but a Grandal/Pina combo is killer.

I believe so: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/seattle-mariners/ben-gamel-18392/ This will be his last pre-arby year.

I'm a little disappointed that we weren't able to swing Domingo for a bigger piece, but he was out of options, behind three other outfielders on the big league roster, and not the greatest fit on the team as a 4th outfielder due to his limited defensive abilities. I trust DS did his due diligence in determining Domingo's market and in the end we get an extra year of control, an extra option, and a little more flexibility defensively. Not to mention adding another pitching nugget to the farm that DS likes. I'm also interested in seeing if moving from Seattle to Miller Park provides a boost in Gamel's stats as well. All in all, it's hard to get too upset when we're nitpicking a 4th outfield spot and I think it's best to reserve some judgement until we see how this fits in with whatever else DS does with the roster this offseason, not to mention how all the players perform this year and beyond.

Career MLB: Santana - 113 wRC+ Gamel - 100 wRC+ And Santana is a year younger. Gamel born May 17, 1992 Santana born August 5, 1992

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agent-tracker-latest-hot-stove-signings-ranking-50-best-players-available-for-2019/ Only 17 of the top 50 FAs have signed so far. Only 2 of those have gone to the NL Central: Lonnie Chisenhall (#42) and Jung Ho Kang (#47) both to the Pirates. I don't necessarily think they'll make a huge splash with where their payroll is at already, but it's early. Still tons of time to fill a couple holes.

Exactly. The Marlins may be asking for too much now, but teams bidding on him are likely offering too little as well with so many alternative upgrades still available that won't cost the prospect package JT will. Whether it's this offseason or at the trade deadline, as teams see fewer or no other options available, I'm sure someone will increase their offer and the Marlins will agree to something in the middle.

I think fans are just more impatient than the Marlins front office is as I'm not sure how much his trade value drops between now and the trade deadline anyways. Yes you may lose some suitors in that time, but the bidding may be more intense between those going for it at the deadline as well. Additionally, the team that ultimately gets him still has him for the stretch run this year, two postseasons, and they can still offer him the qualifying offer when he hits free agency. So if I'm the Marlins, I shoot for the moon for the time being too.

The problem is there is no incentive for a team to actually pay more than the minimum. If Team A offers him $10mil and Team B offers him $1mil, he's still going to go with whichever team he prefers regardless of the money because he's getting the same amount anyways. So if you cut a big contract, there's really no chance a team is going to cut into that debt for you at all.

I think Haudricourt may have caused a "Shaw at 2nd" snafu:

Agree that organizations rank/value players using their own systems rather than using MLB Pipeline, etc. However, as a fan on a message board who doesn't study baseball for a living and primarily focuses the time I do invest in it on a single team, I pretty strongly disagree that a professional, "less biased", publication's rankings aren't a better starting point for comparing prospects than anything I'd come up with on my own from my couch. Rankings should be taken with a grain of salt, but I do think they add context beyond what I can see on the back of a player's minor league card. Now, that said, if you have access to each team's evaluations, I agree, those would be preferable for these conversations

Is there a right price? Either the Diamondbacks pay quite a bit of his salary and we have to give up really good prospects for him or we pay most or all of his salary, give up less but then have $35 million tied up in one player for 3 years. Neither is a good option. This is my response as well. It just doesn’t add up. Fair enough on the price being too high, but let's not say he's fallen off a cliff production-wise when clearly he hasn't.

And you wouldn't be interested in a Greinke, Chacin, Nelson, two of Peralta/Woody/Burnes rotation at the right price?

I'd take him with his 2018 numbers: 3 year numbers look pretty good compared to our staff as well:

Playing fantasy baseball, watching Field of Dreams, buying a Mega Millions lottery ticket: Good. Speculating what it would take to trade a guy who was just traded less than 10 months ago: Too frustratingly unrealistic to consider.

Some stats for reference... 3-Year Stats: 2-Year Stats:

Over Kratz? Yeah. Over Pina. No. I would take Zunino over Pina. Three year stats: Additionally Zunino's 4 years younger than Pina.

Sign me up for Marwin Gonzalez at this point. Between his flexibility and his Houston past, gotta believe he's a guy Stearns knows well and is looking very closely at. He provides a nice compliment to Shaw at 3rd vs lefties, is an improvement over Schoop at 2nd against righties, and can fill in all over the place to give guys rest or cover for injuries. He's also the youngest available guy not named Machado on the list. We could sign him for a few years and his flexibility would give the team a ton of options moving forward as Hiura is called up and other guys move on. He's not the most exciting player to get, but if you add him first, your options for improving the roster stay wide open.

There's been some chatter along this front in a couple other threads, but I thought a consolidated thread might be nice. In theory, this discussion is really about the question mark at 2B right now, but with Shaw's ability to move to 2B if we find a 3B, I decided to group them together. With that said, I put together a list comparing in house options with 2B and 3B free agent options on the market using 3 year splits as a starting point. NOTE: Players are ranked based on their 3 year wRC+. Also I threw FanGraph's Def stat on there not really knowing how it's calculated or how well it actually depicts a player's defensive ability, but thought it was probably better than not considering defense at all. [pre]IN HOUSE 3YR OPS 3YR wRC+ Rnk Player (Age, Positions) vsRHP vsLHP Total vsRHP vsLHP Total 3YR Def --------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- ------- 11. Travis Shaw* (28, 3B/1B/2B) .850 / .668 / .807 120 / 74 / 110 7.5 17. Jonathan Schoop (27, 2B/SS) .766 / .765 / .765 102 / 102 / 102 4.1 28. Hernan Perez (27, 3B/OF/2B/SS) .666 / .786 / .706 73 / 103 / 83 1.1 31. Orlando Arcia (24, SS) .662 / .658 / .661 70 / 75 / 72 7.9 32. Tyler Saladino (29, 3B/SS/2B) .623 / .641 / .629 67 / 77 / 70 5.8 2B FREE AGENTS 3YR OPS 3YR wRC+ Rnk Player (Age, Positions) vsRHP vsLHP Total vsRHP vsLHP Total 3YR Def --------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- ------- 2. Daniel Murphy* (33, 1B/2B) .955 / .809 / .917 146 / 110 / 137 -11.4 6. Brian Dozier (31, 2B) .796 / .878 / .817 110 / 133 / 116 2.6 7. Asdrubal Cabrera^ (32, 2B/SS/3B) .788 / .796 / .790 113 / 117 / 114 2.6 8. Marwin Gonzalez^ (29, 1B/LF/2B/SS/3B) .786 / .753 / .776 115 / 106 / 112 -13.5 9. Jed Lowrie^ (34, 2B/3B) .786 / .716 / .767 116 / 98 / 111 3.9 13. Neil Walker^ (33, 1B/RF/2B/3B) .780 / .724 / .767 111 / 98 / 107 4.8 15. DJ LeMahieu (30, 2B) .769 / .930 / .815 93 / 131 / 103 19.3 16. Ian Kinsler (36, 2B) .749 / .761 / .752 102 / 104 / 103 26.9 3B FREE AGENTS 3YR OPS 3YR wRC+ Rnk Player (Age, Positions) vsRHP vsLHP Total vsRHP vsLHP Total 3YR Def --------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- ------- 1. Josh Donaldson (32, 3B) .915 / .963 / .926 146 / 157 / 148 4.3 3. Jung-ho Kang (31, 3B) .891 / .757 / .863 137 / 110 / 131 -2.7 4. Manny Machado (26, SS/3B) .841 / .891 / .855 121 / 136 / 125 19.0 5. Adrian Beltre (39, 3B) .832 / .910 / .851 115 / 136 / 120 13.3 7. Asdrubal Cabrera^ (32, 2B/SS/3B) .788 / .796 / .790 113 / 117 / 114 2.6 8. Marwin Gonzalez^ (29, 1B/LF/2B/SS/3B) .786 / .753 / .776 115 / 106 / 112 -13.5 9. Jed Lowrie^ (34, 2B/3B) .786 / .716 / .767 116 / 98 / 111 3.9 10. David Freese (35, 1B/3B) .722 / .888 / .771 97 / 140 / 110 6.3 12. Mike Moustakas* (30, 3B) .827 / .746 / .804 115 / 96 / 109 -0.4 13. Neil Walker^ (33, 1B/RF/2B/3B) .780 / .724 / .767 111 / 98 / 107 4.8 14. Danny Valencia (34, 1B/RF/3B) .699 / .867 / .751 90 / 135 / 104 -32.1 18. Jose Bautista (38, LF/RF/3B) .748 / .686 / .733 105 / 89 / 101 -25.6 Players under 100 wRC+: Brad Miller (99), Daniel Descalso (97), Sean Rodriguez (95), Luis Valbuena (94), Chase Headley (93), Logan Forsythe (93), Jose Reyes (91), Josh Harrison (91), Brandon Phillips (90), Eric Sogard (83), Gregorio Petit (74), Andrew Romine (63), Gordon Beckham (63), Ryan Flaherty (59), Ryan Goins (59), Dixon Machado (56)[/pre]

Not ideal news from an "if it ain't broke..." standpoint, but between the team's fielding (2nd in MLB in DRS) and CC/the organization's use of pitchers (not allowing starters to face batters too many times and optimizing reliever usage with matchups) there's plenty of other reasons the pitchers may have "overachieved" this year that don't necessitate DJ staying here. That said, wish him continued success against our division foes while hoping to see similar results for whoever takes his place with the Crew next year!