brewerfan82

Where the heck is the ignore button? I've spent the past 10 minutes trying to find it, lol. This whole thing has gotten ridiculous. There is zero possibility this person is in their right mind and not trolling the place on purpose at this point and it doesn't seem like the moderators are doing anything about it, so I'd like to give the ignore feature a try and would encourage anyone else that's ready to move on to do the same. Update: Found it! Hover their profile image without clicking on it and the button is in a popup that appears.

I completely understand this sentiment. However, if there ever was a time to be okay taking the draft pick as compensation, I think this is it. We're coming off a division title and the division is looking like it'll be up for grabs again. Our farm system is already in a very healthy state with a wave of prospects making its way to the big leagues now and in the near future. And we just filled our most glaring hole on the roster with one of the best available options in free agency. It's a big if, but if guys like Chourio, Black, and Gasser hit the ground running, having the rotation anchored with Burnes, the bullpen locked down with Williams, and having a bat like Hoskins added to the lineup is going to make this a very interesting team to watch this year. All that said, if you get blown away with an offer for Burnes you gotta take it, but it's very possible those kinds of offers aren't on the table. In which case, let's give it a go this year and then go nuts with all the extra picks and pool money we'll have in the 2025 draft to make sure we have another wave of prospects coming in another 3-4 years to compliment this current wave of players.

I think Bauers is just a depth move. I know he had a little bit of an acquisition cost and he's out of options, but I still view him more of an "invite to Spring Training and see what he's got" kind of pick up like Perkins or Voit than anything they were planning on being a more concrete part of the team's 2024 plans. I think he's just here to compete for the 26th man on the roster and he may not be that bad of an option in that role as 28 year old currently projected with a 90 wRC+ with the possibility of outperforming that with some sort of break out this year.

I believe they're moving Harper to 1st and would probably prefer Schwarber in the DH spot instead of the OF

Also add this to the list of post-December acquisitions for the people that get impatient in November about not signing anyone. 2018 January 25th - Trade Brinson, Diaz, Harrison, and Yamamoto for Christian Yelich January 26th - Sign Lorenzo Cain to a 5 year, $80M contract 2019 January 14th - Sign Yasmani Grandal to a 1 year, $18.250M contract (incl. mutual buyout) February 19th - Sign Mike Moustakas to a 1 year, $10M contract (incl. mutual option) 2020 March 6th - Sign Christian Yelich to a 7 year, $188.5M contract extension 2021 February 5th - Sign Kolten Wong to a 2 year, $18M contract March 4th - Sign Jackie Bradley, Jr to a 2 year, $24M contract w/ player option on 2nd year 2023 January 4th - Sign Wade Miley to a 1 year, $4.5M contract 2024 January 23rd - Sign Rhys Hoskins to a 2 year, $34M contract

Now the question becomes... how much of a "go for it" year does this become? It's not like Hoskins is an annual MVP candidate or anything, but we were sooooo bad at 1B and DH that this is a significant upgrade for 2024. And it's not likely a longterm upgrade, so if they were planning on trading away guys like Burnes, Adames, and possibly even Williams, it wouldn't be a necessary acquisition for their plans 2-3 years down the line. So 1.) is this enough to change anyone's minds on this board about whether they prefer the Brewers trade any of those guys now? And more interestingly, 2.) is this enough to make the Brewers' brass decide not only to keep those guys, but now stretch the budget a tad and get 2-3 more reinforcements for this year? There are still a ton of guys still out there (plus trade possibilities), it could get interesting over the next couple weeks!

Especially ones that have been complaining for 3 months assuming they wouldn't make this exact move. Glad they didn't need to "throw a 4-5 year contract" at him to get it done! ;) Great signing, now let's hope he opts out after this year (as that would mean good things)!

Haha, love it! This was the biggest "realistic" splash move I thought they could make this offseason. Still wasn't expecting it to happen just with it being a numbers game with other teams interested as well, but love that they got it done! Not to mention, in true Brewer form, there wasn't much talk actually connecting them to Hoskins until the last 24 hours or so and then *boom* signed!

Because you're asking this board... Keston Hiura? 😬

Thanks! The article admits it's speculation from "MLB insiders", but if Santana is asking for too much currently, that takes away some of the concern that someone else is just going to scoop him up while we wait to see if something better comes along first. Although if the article's speculation that the Brewers want to pay less at first base regardless (hence the Cooper talk), that doesn't bode well for the Hoskins possibility either. Hopefully this just indicates Santana is asking for more than they're willing to pay for him specifically and that Hoskins for a bit more would still be a possibility. Make a push for Hoskins and then check back in on Santana if it doesn't work out!

link?

Gotcha, just a hunch based on lack of activity. But I'd argue that no one has shown an urgency to sign him or about half of the bigger free agents still (25 of 56 FAs proj. to have at least 1.0 fWAR haven't signed yet, and the Brewers have signed 2 of 31 that have signed, so they've actually been more active than the average team on that front). Still reason to believe they could pick up the pace as we get closer to Spring Training. It's been an awfully slow offseason for anyone not named the Dodgers and players and teams are viewing the "deadline" to make moves as being closer and closer to Spring Training or even Opening Day each year. There are A LOT of players to be signed and traded still and there's a good chance a few of the names added to teams are going to go to the Brewers. Would love to get Hoskins and years past have shown the later these guys hang around and don't get picked up by other teams the more likely the Brewers make a late play on them.

According to who?

It'd be fun from an entertainment standpoint at least, lol. His projected 95 wRC+ would probably be an upgrade over what we have if we're not throwing Black there right away (Bauers proj. for a 90 wRC+), and it's a jump up from what we did at 1B (81 wRC+) and DH last year (also 81 wRC+). But there's a lot of better options out there currently, so unless they all fall through and he comes super cheap, prob a better idea to pass. 2-Year Splits for Available Free Agents Listed w/ 1B on FanGraphs (Votto had a big year 3 seasons ago, so I did 2 years so that wouldn't skew his results too much, especially as a 40-year-old who's less likely to return to production from 3+ years ago now):

He probably should as he would likely make way more than $700M over 20 years if he was paid $470M upfront.

This is incorrect: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/milwaukee-brewers/christian-yelich-14316/

Agree to disagree I guess :)

Hope this doesn't completely derail the topic, but... my understanding is that if the Dodgers had given Ohtani a traditional contract that paid out equally over 10 years, it would have been for the $46M per year that the luxury tax is penalizing them for. Essentially a $460M contract distributed equally over 10 years is equal to a $700M contract distributed the way the Dodgers are paying Ohtani over the next 20 years. So any team able to pay him a $460M deal over 10 years would have been able to do the same thing the Dodgers are doing. If $700M severely backloaded over 20 years equals $460M over 10 years, then they shouldn't be penalized further than $46M per year just because they structured the same amount of money differently. If luxury tax wasn't adjusted for present day value, then you risk teams actually being able to skirt the luxury tax by severely frontloading contracts instead (ie. giving Ohtani $300M or whatever upfront over 10 years instead and only being penalize $30M against the luxury tax each year).

I'm for making progress towards a more equal playing field (more revenue sharing, incentives for exceeding a lower payroll threshold and punishments for exceeding a higher payroll threshold, etc.) and when I was half my age it really bothered me that the Yankees could buy their way to the World Series (making it there 6 out of 8 years in the late 90's early '00s) while the Brewers were being run by the Seligs on a nickel and a dime. But over the next 20 years, seeing other small market teams like the A's, Royals, and Rays (and eventually our own Brewers) have stretches of success despite all the disadvantages built into the system became a bigger and bigger source of hope. And the closer we've gotten to the World Series, the more pride I've had as a fan that our organization could actually compete and outsmart the bigger market teams. The odds are certainly stacked against us, but we've had a really fun stretch of baseball and part of that is because it's so unexpected considering how the system is currently setup (and how dreadfully awful we were for such a long time). So while I'm not opposed to new measures to even the playing field, it would be so so sweet to get a championship under our belt while things are still stacked against us. Being an underdog has become part of being a Brewer fan and if we don't get that championship until all teams are playing with equal payrolls, it'll take a little shine off that trophy. That being said, it would only be A LITTLE shine lost, I'll definitely take that championship anyway we can get it! :) #gobrewcrew!

I don't think this gives any real indication one way or the other on whether or not they anticipate trading either player before the season begins. If anything, after what happened with Burnes last year, I might think they'd be more motivated to keep good will and come to an agreement if they planned on keeping them. If they're trading them anyways, then go to arbitration and do the dirty work to fight with them for as low a salary as possible to maximize their value to other teams. But really, I don't think it means anything in this respect, it's just easy to come up with reasons for it to mean whatever you want it to either way.

I realllly wish we could get those guys at those prices. Unfortunately, I think you are underestimating what it's going to take to get them, especially Chapman. MLB Trade Rumors (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html - has Hoskins at 2 yrs/$36M and Chapman at 6 yrs/$150M) and FanGraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker - has Hoskins at 1 yr/$14M and Chapman at 4 yrs/$80M) are good places to get an idea of what guys might be going for. I don't think Chapman's getting anything near 6 yrs/$150M, but he's likely still out of our range. Hoskins is a more realistic get, but I also think the estimates on him are likely on the low end of what he may end up getting. I like the thought though!

Part of the issue with this discussion is no one knows what it's going to take to get him. Depending on how a 4/$55M contract is structured (opt outs, front loaded or not, etc) it could work for both parties, but we have no idea what he's looking for right now, what other teams are willing to give him, or what the Brewers may or may not currently have on the table. The consistent complaining about how the team is approaching this offseason when the players you want them to target are still available seems a bit premature. It'll be a more interesting discussion, backed with some more meaningful information, once we see where Chapman and Hoskins go and what their contracts look like. Even then we're not likely to know exactly how hard the Brewers went after either player (assuming they don't get either). Regardless, it'd be nice to start a new topic to discuss this instead of bringing it up in threads about signing a minor league player that has absolutely nothing to do with it.

"Hope" is giving a 4-5 year contract to a player entering his age 31 season when he hasn't played in over a year due to a torn ACL that required surgery to repair and hoping everything goes alright.

Piggybacking on @sveumrules post, looking at last year's wRC+ and fWARs compared to Steamer's '24 projections, here are some places we could see some improvement... Exciting Possible Rookie Debuts (projections only): Jackson Chourio (#1 Brewers prospect, #2 MLB) - proj. 93 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR, 524 PAs) Tyler Black (#4 Brewers prospect, #51 MLB) - proj. 104 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR, 381 PAs) Jeferson Quero (#2 Brewers prospect, #32 MLB) - Insignificant projection (1 PA), but could be a wildcard this year as well (wRC+ of 148, 111, 134, and 107 in the minors) Also possible debuts by pitchers Jacob Misiorowski (#3 Brewers prospect, #36 MLB), Robert Gasser (#5 Brewers prospect), Carlos F. Rodriguez (#6 Brewers prospect) Young Players Continuing to Develop and Gaining Larger Roles: Sal Frelick - proj. 103 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR, 583 PAs (2023: 92 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR, 223 PAs) Joey Wiemer - proj. 88 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR, 245 PAs (2023: 75 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR, 410 PAs) - If you believe in his defense, that will propel his proj. fWAR much higher as currently it's projecting below average defense from him Garrett Mitchell - proj. 88 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR, 310 PAs (2023: 103 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR, 73 PAs) - Another guy I could easily see outperforming his projections Brice Turang - proj. 88 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR, 484 PAs (2023: 60 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR, 448 PAs) Aaron Ashby - proj. 3.70 FIP, 1.3 fWAR, 82.0 IP - Another big wildcard this year. If he returns to health, he could more than makeup for the loss of Houser Abner Uribe - proj. 3.67 FIP, 0.6 fWAR, 60 IP (2023: 2.77 FIP, 0.6 fWAR, 30.2 IP) - Another modest projection for a guy that looked filthy last year Bounceback Candidate (if he's still on the team): Willy Adames - proj. 103 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR, 654 ABs (2023: 94 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR, 638 PAs) - A return to his 2021/22 self (114 wRC+, 7.9 combined fWAR) at age 28 isn't an unreasonable possibility Addition by Subtraction (we had some miserable performances last year): Rowdy Tellez - 78 wRC+, -0.9 fWAR in 351 PAs Jesse Winker - 65 wRC+, -0.8 fWAR in 197 PAs Mike Brosseau, Luke Voit, Jon Singleton, and Raimel Tapia impressively combined for a -1.6 fWAR while accounting for 245 PAs Eric Lauer - 5.58 xFIP, -0.8 fWAR in 46.2 IP Matt Bush - 4.98 xFIP, -0.7 fWAR in 10.1 IP New Players Still to Come Still a lot of time left in the offseason! 30 of 55 FAs proj. for at least a 1.0 fWAR are still available (incl. bigger name guys like Snell, Montgomery, Imanaga, Chapman, Stroman, and Bellinger, and maybe more in our range guys like Rosario, Paxton, Hoskins, Soler, Ryu, Tim Anderson, Bauer, Pederson, Teoscar Hernandez, Lorenzen, Urshela, and Pham). The Brewers have already signed 2 of the 25 players signed in this group to this point (Miley and Rea, each proj. for 1.3 fWAR) 40 of 55 FAs proj. between 0.5 and 0.9 fWAR are still available. The Brewers have signed 1 of the 15 players signed in this group so far (Ross proj. for 0.8 fWAR) 71 of 107 FAs proj. between 0.1 and 0.4 fWAR are still available. The Brewers have signed 2 of the 36 players signed in this group so far (Nola and Haase, each proj. for 0.1 fWAR) And endless possibilities in the trade market

On the surface, I like it as a depth move. From 2019-2022, he had a wRC+ of 105 (8th of 23 qualified catchers) before falling off a cliff last year. According to MLBTR (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/brewers-sign-austin-nola-to-minor-league-deal.html), "Nola discussed his offensive woes back in September, revealing that he had been diagnosed with oculomotor dysfunction, an issue that impacts the brain’s ability to coordinate eye movement and comes with symptoms such as fogginess and headaches." A quick Google search makes it sound like there are vision therapy treatments. So hopefully it's something he can treat moving forward and will bounce back from now that it's diagnosed. Regardless, it's a nice low-risk pickup for some depth and we'll see how he's looking in the Spring!