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brewerfan82

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Everything posted by brewerfan82

  1. brewerfan82
    Yes. You don't have to have the best team to win the World Series and they don't even necessarily need to be better than this year to go further in the playoffs next year. The Arizona Diamondbacks just made their way into the Series with the 18th best offense (97 wRC+ vs. the Brewers' 92), 19th best pitching (4.36 xFIP vs. the Brewers' 4.13) , and 5th best defense (4.5 UZR/150 vs. the Brewers' 7.7).
  2. brewerfan82
    Can someone please tell me it's April 1st?
  3. brewerfan82
    Fixed!
  4. brewerfan82
    Ha, well I've been tracking since the 13th for awhile because it's the time that some posters were overreacting to Canha and Santana's slow starts and Candelario's fast start. It demonstrates how poorly projecting the rest of the season is based on a couple of weeks. But your point stands as well ;)
  5. brewerfan82
    Since August 13th with their new teams: Canha (MIL) - 154 PAs, 5 HRs, 17 Rs, 28 RBIs, 4 SBs, 143 wRC+ Santana (MIL) - 159 PAs, 8 HRs, 27 Rs, 26 RBIs, 0 SB, 125 wRC+ Donaldson (MIL) - 57 PAs, 3 HRs, 5 Rs, 10 RBIs, 0 SB, 111 wRC+ Candelario (CHC) - 99 PAs, 4 HRs, 9 Rs, 13 RBIs, 1 SB, 56 wRC+
  6. brewerfan82
    Haha, that's creative. I suspect they would just re-counter by extending the opener a 2nd inning or bringing in a second reliever though.
  7. brewerfan82
    I think his argument is that once we hit the playoffs, it should be Contreras catching every day to maximize the lineup. Which I could agree with and wouldn't have a problem with generally, but I don't know if that's the time to start messing with Burnes' mojo either since he basically has no rapport built up with Contreras at this point (which I think is also part of wiguy's point).
  8. brewerfan82
    They've also won 1-0 three times (and shutout the opponent an additional 9 other times, while scoring more, sometimes many more, than 1 run). I'm not sure that's really a high number on either side of the ball for 1-0 games. They've scored at least 6 runs in 21 of their last 39 games (54%). By contrast the Braves have done that 22 times in their last 39. This team is certainly capable of putting up runs and have done it quite often since the trade deadline. They could definitely be a bit more consistent, but there is going to be a game here and there that a team loses 1-0. All that said, I'm with ya on the sentiment that there's room to improve at specific roster spots. Let's hope they catch lightning in a bottle with Donaldson starting tonight! :)
  9. brewerfan82
    After Santana and Canha's slow starts and Candelario's hot start with their new teams (since August 13th):
  10. brewerfan82
    I'd also argue Contreras was a fairly significant add this past offseason ;)
  11. brewerfan82
    7 out of 9 players in the lineup have been average-ish to very very good against LHP this year: Hopefully Taylor continues his more recent success (and Wiemer, Monasterio, and Caratini forget about some recent atbats)... since August 1st vs. LHP:
  12. brewerfan82
  13. brewerfan82
    Pre-Trade Deadline: 4.17 runs/game (13th in NL) 87 wRC+ (14th in NL) Post-Trade Deadline: 5.4 runs/game (4th in NL) 97 wRC+ (7th in NL) Canha and Santana with the Brewers pre-August 13th (slow starts with the new team): Canha - 49 wRC+ (42 PAs) Santana - 26 wRC+ (55 PAs)) Canha and Santana with the Brewers post-August 13th (after settling in): Canha - 163 wRC+ (63 PAs) Santana - 165 wRC+ (67 PAs) I'm happy with the offensive additions to the team this trade deadline :)
  14. brewerfan82
    Did a little research into the Brewers against LH starters this morning... The Brewers offense has been significantly better in games against LH starters since July 1st: Before July 1st: 10-15 record, averaging 2.76 runs scored/game Since July 1st: 7-6 record, averaging 4.08 runs scored/game The key in the games since July 1st is getting the starter out of the game by the 6th inning: Games where starter goes 5 IP or fewer: 5.57 runs scored/game (2.86 against the starter and 2.71 against the relievers) Games where starter goes more than 5 IP: 2.33 runs scored/game (1.67 against the starter and 0.67 against the relievers) The Phillies relievers have put up the following ERA splits for each inning: 4th inning - 6.55 ERA 5th inning - 7.71 ERA 6th inning - 3.00 ERA 7th inning - 4.01 ERA 8th inning - 3.85 ERA 9th inning - 2.93 ERA Getting the starter out and facing those non-backend of the bullpen relievers for an extra inning or two will be key in putting up some runs today. So let's work the count, put a crooked number on the board, and sweep these phellas!
  15. brewerfan82
    I'd also argue Taylor's better defensively than he's given credit for. 2021-23: Taylor: 821.1 innings in CF, 5 assists, 9 DRS, 5.8 UZR/150 Wiemer: 869 innings in CF, 4 assists, 2 DRS, 7.8 UZR/150 I'd definitely still take Wiemer over Taylor out there, but I think they could cover center for a few weeks between Taylor, Frelick, Perkins, and now Greg Allen.
  16. brewerfan82
    Since August 1st: Taylor: 139 wRC+ (113 vs RHP, 190 vs LHP), 0.6 WAR Wiemer: 46 wRC+ (50 vs RHP, 40 vs LHP), -0.1 WAR The last month has been especially brutal for Wiemer at the plate. Note, that's only 46 PAs for Wiemer and 66 PAs for Taylor (compared to 6 Brewers having over 100 PAs each in that timeframe), but the lack of usage (which may have also contributed to his ineffectiveness) is just that much more reason it would have been nice having him down in AAA getting regular playing time.
  17. brewerfan82
    There have been some memorable miscues against some very bad teams (*cough* A's *cough*), but overall they've actually been 36-21 with a .632 winning percentage against teams .500 or worse (compared to 38-38 against teams over .500). So this is definitely a good situation :)
  18. brewerfan82
    Tack on two more 6+ run games since this post. The Brewers have now scored at least 6 runs in 6 straight games (and in 10 of their last 15 games)!
  19. brewerfan82
  20. brewerfan82
    In the last 23 games (since July 28th), the Brewers have scored at least 6 runs in over half their games (12 games) and averaged 5.26 runs per game overall. In the 103 games prior to July 28th, they averaged 4.11 runs per game. In the same time frame, the Brewers' pitching has had the 3rd best xFIP in the NL at 3.96 (an improvement from the 4.28 xFIP they put up in the first 103 games). That fielding independent pitching combined with their NL best fielding (1st in both DRS and UZR/150 on the year) should make for a pretty good run prevention unit the rest of the way. Also of note, after a bit of a slow start after being acquired by the Brewers, Santana and Canha have wRC+ of 117 and 154 and OPS's of .838 and .953 respectively for their new club since August 13th. Things are trending nicely for the Crew!
  21. brewerfan82
    He's gonna be David Ortiz for another team starting next year, isn't he...
  22. brewerfan82
    Time to lay down the hurt on a lefty! I'd probably do something like this: LF Yelich (72 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2023) DH Contreras (173) 1B Santana (98) SS Adames (91) RF Canha (105) 2B Monasterio (162) 3B Anderson (75) C Caratini (80) CF Wiemer (143) Although Frelick does have a 1229 wRC+ in his 1 plate appearance against a lefty (a homerun) so far... so if you decide to give Yeli a day off against the LHP, he could be tempting to throw into the mix as well ;) Taylor's also traditionally better against lefties than he's show so far this year as well (124 wRC+ vs. LHP from 2020-22), so it might be nice getting him into the lineup today as well to see if it will help him get going.
  23. brewerfan82
    Luckily it doesn't matter where their full season stats land, just what they do moving forward. In the past 30 days they've been 8th in the NL in runs scored (and 9th in wRC+). In those same 30 days, their first basemen have been last in the NL with a 45 wRC+, their DH have been 13th in the league with a 57 wRC+, and RF has been 12th in the NL with a 70 wRC+. Adding a couple 90-110 wRC+ players to that mix is going to help shore up some black holes on an already improving offense. I'm still hoping for one more bat today, but I think they've done a really nice job filling some huge needs without mortgaging the future so far.
  24. brewerfan82
    Reasons to be optimistic about the lineup turning it around the rest of the season: Position (current wRC+, MLB rank) - Optimistic Notes Catcher (113, 3rd) - All set, great offseason pickup MA! Firstbase (78, 30th) - Santana 2023: 99 wRC+, Last 30 days: 96 wRC+, Proj. ROS: 101 wRC+ Secondbase (77, 21st) - Turang Last 14 days: 100 wRC+, Proj. ROS: 78 wRC+ (but 80-ish is fine with glove) Thirdbase (94, 16th) - This is actually better than I expected, but Monasterio is also on fire... AM Last 30 days: 123 wRC+ Shortstop (83, 19th) - Adames Last 30 days: 93 wRC+, Proj. ROS: 102 wRC+ Leftfield (132, 2nd) - Excellent job Yeli Centerfield (87, 24th) - Canha pick up allows Wiemer and Frelick to platoon. Wiemer vs LHP: 148 wRC+, Frelick vs RHP: 132 wRC+ Rightfield (74, 28th) - Frelick Last 30 days: 132 wRC+, Canha (see next) can play here when Frelick's in CF DH (55, 30th) - Canha 2023: 107 wRC+, Last 30 days: 122 wRC+, Proj ROS: 109 wRC+
  25. brewerfan82
    I'd actually go the other way. I think Miller's run out of his pixie dust. Last 30 days: Last 14 days is even starker:
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