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brewerfan82

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Everything posted by brewerfan82

  1. brewerfan82
    7 out of 9 players in the lineup have been average-ish to very very good against LHP this year: Hopefully Taylor continues his more recent success (and Wiemer, Monasterio, and Caratini forget about some recent atbats)... since August 1st vs. LHP:
  2. brewerfan82
  3. brewerfan82
    Pre-Trade Deadline: 4.17 runs/game (13th in NL) 87 wRC+ (14th in NL) Post-Trade Deadline: 5.4 runs/game (4th in NL) 97 wRC+ (7th in NL) Canha and Santana with the Brewers pre-August 13th (slow starts with the new team): Canha - 49 wRC+ (42 PAs) Santana - 26 wRC+ (55 PAs)) Canha and Santana with the Brewers post-August 13th (after settling in): Canha - 163 wRC+ (63 PAs) Santana - 165 wRC+ (67 PAs) I'm happy with the offensive additions to the team this trade deadline :)
  4. brewerfan82
    Did a little research into the Brewers against LH starters this morning... The Brewers offense has been significantly better in games against LH starters since July 1st: Before July 1st: 10-15 record, averaging 2.76 runs scored/game Since July 1st: 7-6 record, averaging 4.08 runs scored/game The key in the games since July 1st is getting the starter out of the game by the 6th inning: Games where starter goes 5 IP or fewer: 5.57 runs scored/game (2.86 against the starter and 2.71 against the relievers) Games where starter goes more than 5 IP: 2.33 runs scored/game (1.67 against the starter and 0.67 against the relievers) The Phillies relievers have put up the following ERA splits for each inning: 4th inning - 6.55 ERA 5th inning - 7.71 ERA 6th inning - 3.00 ERA 7th inning - 4.01 ERA 8th inning - 3.85 ERA 9th inning - 2.93 ERA Getting the starter out and facing those non-backend of the bullpen relievers for an extra inning or two will be key in putting up some runs today. So let's work the count, put a crooked number on the board, and sweep these phellas!
  5. brewerfan82
    I'd also argue Taylor's better defensively than he's given credit for. 2021-23: Taylor: 821.1 innings in CF, 5 assists, 9 DRS, 5.8 UZR/150 Wiemer: 869 innings in CF, 4 assists, 2 DRS, 7.8 UZR/150 I'd definitely still take Wiemer over Taylor out there, but I think they could cover center for a few weeks between Taylor, Frelick, Perkins, and now Greg Allen.
  6. brewerfan82
    Since August 1st: Taylor: 139 wRC+ (113 vs RHP, 190 vs LHP), 0.6 WAR Wiemer: 46 wRC+ (50 vs RHP, 40 vs LHP), -0.1 WAR The last month has been especially brutal for Wiemer at the plate. Note, that's only 46 PAs for Wiemer and 66 PAs for Taylor (compared to 6 Brewers having over 100 PAs each in that timeframe), but the lack of usage (which may have also contributed to his ineffectiveness) is just that much more reason it would have been nice having him down in AAA getting regular playing time.
  7. brewerfan82
    There have been some memorable miscues against some very bad teams (*cough* A's *cough*), but overall they've actually been 36-21 with a .632 winning percentage against teams .500 or worse (compared to 38-38 against teams over .500). So this is definitely a good situation :)
  8. brewerfan82
    Tack on two more 6+ run games since this post. The Brewers have now scored at least 6 runs in 6 straight games (and in 10 of their last 15 games)!
  9. brewerfan82
  10. brewerfan82
    In the last 23 games (since July 28th), the Brewers have scored at least 6 runs in over half their games (12 games) and averaged 5.26 runs per game overall. In the 103 games prior to July 28th, they averaged 4.11 runs per game. In the same time frame, the Brewers' pitching has had the 3rd best xFIP in the NL at 3.96 (an improvement from the 4.28 xFIP they put up in the first 103 games). That fielding independent pitching combined with their NL best fielding (1st in both DRS and UZR/150 on the year) should make for a pretty good run prevention unit the rest of the way. Also of note, after a bit of a slow start after being acquired by the Brewers, Santana and Canha have wRC+ of 117 and 154 and OPS's of .838 and .953 respectively for their new club since August 13th. Things are trending nicely for the Crew!
  11. brewerfan82
    He's gonna be David Ortiz for another team starting next year, isn't he...
  12. brewerfan82
    Time to lay down the hurt on a lefty! I'd probably do something like this: LF Yelich (72 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2023) DH Contreras (173) 1B Santana (98) SS Adames (91) RF Canha (105) 2B Monasterio (162) 3B Anderson (75) C Caratini (80) CF Wiemer (143) Although Frelick does have a 1229 wRC+ in his 1 plate appearance against a lefty (a homerun) so far... so if you decide to give Yeli a day off against the LHP, he could be tempting to throw into the mix as well ;) Taylor's also traditionally better against lefties than he's show so far this year as well (124 wRC+ vs. LHP from 2020-22), so it might be nice getting him into the lineup today as well to see if it will help him get going.
  13. brewerfan82
    Luckily it doesn't matter where their full season stats land, just what they do moving forward. In the past 30 days they've been 8th in the NL in runs scored (and 9th in wRC+). In those same 30 days, their first basemen have been last in the NL with a 45 wRC+, their DH have been 13th in the league with a 57 wRC+, and RF has been 12th in the NL with a 70 wRC+. Adding a couple 90-110 wRC+ players to that mix is going to help shore up some black holes on an already improving offense. I'm still hoping for one more bat today, but I think they've done a really nice job filling some huge needs without mortgaging the future so far.
  14. brewerfan82
    Reasons to be optimistic about the lineup turning it around the rest of the season: Position (current wRC+, MLB rank) - Optimistic Notes Catcher (113, 3rd) - All set, great offseason pickup MA! Firstbase (78, 30th) - Santana 2023: 99 wRC+, Last 30 days: 96 wRC+, Proj. ROS: 101 wRC+ Secondbase (77, 21st) - Turang Last 14 days: 100 wRC+, Proj. ROS: 78 wRC+ (but 80-ish is fine with glove) Thirdbase (94, 16th) - This is actually better than I expected, but Monasterio is also on fire... AM Last 30 days: 123 wRC+ Shortstop (83, 19th) - Adames Last 30 days: 93 wRC+, Proj. ROS: 102 wRC+ Leftfield (132, 2nd) - Excellent job Yeli Centerfield (87, 24th) - Canha pick up allows Wiemer and Frelick to platoon. Wiemer vs LHP: 148 wRC+, Frelick vs RHP: 132 wRC+ Rightfield (74, 28th) - Frelick Last 30 days: 132 wRC+, Canha (see next) can play here when Frelick's in CF DH (55, 30th) - Canha 2023: 107 wRC+, Last 30 days: 122 wRC+, Proj ROS: 109 wRC+
  15. brewerfan82
    I'd actually go the other way. I think Miller's run out of his pixie dust. Last 30 days: Last 14 days is even starker:
  16. brewerfan82
    They've still got 22.5 hours to make more moves!
  17. brewerfan82
    Do you realize 1B and DH have been bigger holes in the lineup this year than any of the positions you listed? Additionally, Canha's presence potentially allows Frelick to play more in center as well. I would have loved to get Candelario, but Canha and Santana are likely similarly as big of improvements for this team as he would have been.
  18. brewerfan82
    Obviously because they just got a guy that's projected for 106 wRC+ the remainder of the season and the bum we just got is only projected at 113 wRC+ moving forward... I would have loved to get Candelario, but posters thinking he would have been "going for it" while Canha and Santana are non-needle movers is a really odd stance to take.
  19. brewerfan82
    Canha's Stats: 2023 vs. RHP - .255/.337/.373/.710 103 wRC+ 2021-23 vs. RHP - .257/.371/.389/.759 123 wRC+ 2023 vs. LHP - .229/.347/.396/.743 111 wRC+ 2021-23 vs. LHP - .230/.335/.397/.733 111 wRC+ Brewers DH Stats: 2023 vs. RHP - .203/.317/.251/.568 65 wRC+ 2023 vs. LHP - .162/.219/.206/.425 16 wRC+
  20. brewerfan82
    I like it, I thought he was one of the better fits available at this point and sounds like we didn't have to give up anything too regrettable to get him either. 2023 vs. RHP - .255/.337/.373/.710 103 wRC+ 2021-23 vs. RHP - .257/.371/.389/.759 123 wRC+ 2023 vs. LHP - .229/.347/.396/.743 111 wRC+ 2021-23 vs. LHP - .230/.335/.397/.733 111 wRC+ Should be an above average bat against both righties and lefties. Has positive DRS's at both corner outfield spots and has logged a decent amount of time at first base this year as well. Santana and Canha aren't exactly the sexiest moves, but they're exactly what we needed. Going from 79 wRC+ at 1B, 55 wRC+ at DH, and 75 wRC+ in RF to what should be right around 100 if not higher is a major boost. Now slam the cherry on top with a Hernandez/Jimenez/Candelario type guy and we're really talking :)
  21. brewerfan82
    Looking at the splits, any of Canha, Candelario, and/or Teoscar would be really nice additions. Throw Pham in there as well if you think his "personality issues" are being overblown (I'll assume they're not, but I really don't know much about it). I have less interest in DeJong, Duvall, and Verdugo, but they'd probably still be welcome additions.
  22. brewerfan82
    For reference, here are some splits for the players in the Rosenthal piece... 2023 vs. RHP: 2021-23 vs. RHP: 2023 vs. LHP: 2021-23 vs. LHP:
  23. brewerfan82
    No worries! It'd be easy to miss if you just start with the Brewers-specific paragraph as the list of players it references is actually in the previous paragraph.
  24. brewerfan82
    I have a subscription, I don't want to copy-paste the whole section, but he did list off Jeimer Candelario, Mark Canha, Tommy Pham, Teoscar Hernández, Paul DeJong, Adam Duvall, and possibly Alex Verdugo as remaining available hitters and that the Brewers "figure to grab one name off that list."
  25. brewerfan82
    Well the Braves haven't faced Burnes or Woodruff at all and Peralta only once in these 5 games. The Brewers' pixie dust may have run out a little with their hodge-podge back of the rotation recently and the Braves have been able to take advantage of that. Woody's going to have to return strong, Peralta's going to need to find consistency, and Burnes is going to need to be Burnes for this team to go on a run. But if those three perform (and the bats play up a little with the additions of Frelick, Santana, and hopefully one more still to come), the team the Braves potentially face in the playoffs could be pretty significantly different than the one they've seen in a couple mid-season series so far. The Braves definitely are impressive and the team to beat in the NL, but I wouldn't call a playoff series win against them an impossible feat just yet.
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