brewerfan82

Two weeks from Opening Day and here's the playing time breakdown at 3B this Spring so far: Sal Frelick - 40 innings at 3B (31 at RF) Oliver Dunn - 30 innings at 3B (15 at 2B) Brock Wilken - 28 innings at 3B Christian Arroyo - 16 innings at 3B (6 at 2B) Vinny Capra - 14 innings at 3B (19 at 2B, 13 at SS) Joey Ortiz - 12 innings at 3B (27 at SS, 3 at 2B) Andruw Monasterio - 12 innings at 3B (17 at 2B, 16 at SS) Tyler Black - 6 innings at 3B (44 at 1B) Owen Miller - 5 innings at 3B (32 at 2B, 15 at 1B) Juan Baez - 4 innings at 3B (4 at 2B) Patrick Dorrian - 4 innings at 3B (6 at 1B) Jadher Areinamo - 3 innings at 3B (3 at 2B) Barring a last minute Adames trade, I would still anticipate Ortiz getting the bulk of the work at 3B, but they certainly have been giving Frelick a serious look there and have been trying to give him as much time as possible there to see if he can handle it. That said, if you want to play conspiracy theory, especially after already naming Turang the starter at 2B, it would be easy to see the playing time distribution as them preparing for an Adames trade and then going with Frelick at 3B, Ortiz at SS, and Turang at 2B.

I just prefer his bat in the lineup opposed to Bauers, Turang, or Monasterio. Outside of one 113 PA season 6 years ago, Bauers, Turang, and Monasterio combined don't have a single season or 2024 projection with a wRC+ higher than anything that Davis has had in his career or is projected to have this year. Davis: Bauers: Turang: Monasterio: Ideally at least one of Turang or Monasterio (or eventually Black or Wilken) takes a step forward putting Davis in a strictly DH role, but he would give the team some flexibility in having another above average bat in the lineup regardless and I think with how strong defensively the rest of the team is we could afford him at 3B occasionally.

Well he's split his time between 3B and RF evenly so far this Spring with 31 innings at each spot.

If we add anyone at this point and it isn't an impact bat (ie. Belt or Martinez), then I definitely want someone with positional flexibility because of all the young guys. 1.) So they can move around the diamond to allow the younger players playing time, and 2.) so they can fill any holes that develop from players showing they aren't quite ready for the big leagues. Davis definitely would qualify for this. There are also a few free agents still available that have positional flexibility. The following players are listed on FanGraphs with multiple positions, including third base. All the free agents also have 2nd base listed, which is one plus over Davis. But Davis, Solano, and La Stella also have 1B listed, which is a plus especially if it's a straight swap for Bauers on the roster. 2021-23: 2021-23 vs. RHP: 2021-23 vs. LHP: Of all those players, Davis (117 wRC+ vs. RHP/108 wRC+ vs. LHP), Solano (105/115), Harrison (98/91), and Segura (85/116) have wRC+ splits of at least 85 from both sides of the plate. And here are their 2024 ZiPS projections: Davis (31 years old) - 464 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, 9.9% BB%, 28.9% K%, .249/.334/.411, 107 wRC+, 1.8 WAR Solano (36) - 367 PA, 5 HR, 0 SB, 7.1% BB%, 22.1% K%, .267/.335/.371, 98 wRC+, 0.7 WAR Harrison (36) - 357 PA, 6 HR, 3 SB, 5.0% BB%, 17.6% K%, .260/.320/.375, 85 wRC+, 1.2 WAR Segura (34) - 400 PA, 6 HR, 7 SB, 6.8% BB%, 15.3% K%, .260/.318/.355, 89 wRC+, 1.4 WAR I'd definitely like Davis' bat in the lineup the most out of those 4 (he does have the most swing and miss in there as well, but I suspect with his higher BB% that also means he works counts leading to both BBs and Ks), but he's likely to cost more both financially and in trade. If a trade can't be worked out for Davis, I'm more interested in solidifying the lineup than I am concerned with the defense on this team, so if any of the other three are available at the right price, I'd dig a Solano signing. I wouldn't be against signing Harrison or Segura, they would add some defense and both put the ball in play, but I feel they're a little more redundant with the defensively solid young players and I think I'd just go with what we've got over them. So long story short, put me down for a Davis trade or Solano signing! (And of course sign both Snell and Montgomery and we're off to the races!)

Yep. Considering we're only one of those two guys away from pretty decidedly improving the team from last year, while also adding some nice long term additions, it's hard not to like how the offseason has gone. Going off who ended up playing at each spot the most last year: C - Contreras/Caratini -> Contreras/Sanchez 1B - Tellez/Santana -> Hoskins/Bauers/Black 2B - Turang/Miller -> Turang/Ortiz SS - Adames -> Adames 3B - Anderson/Monasterio -> Ortiz/Monasterio/Frelick LF - Yelich -> Yelich CF - Wiemer -> Chourio/Mitchell/Wiemer RF - Taylor/Canha -> Frelick DH - Winker/Voit -> Sanchez/Yelich SP - Burnes -> Snell/Montgomery SP - Peralta -> Peralta SP - Miley -> Miley SP - Rea -> Rea SP - Houser -> Hall SP - Teheran -> Ashby/Junis/Ross/Gasser Obviously this rotation feels a lot different without a Snell/Montgomery addition. But I think there's still enough young talent in that rotation that someone could breakout and make the staff still pretty competitive regardless.

That would be amazing if we landed one of those two. Snell has a higher upside, but Monty's shown the ability to go deeper into games more consistently: 2021-23 Stats as a SP with IP/GS: Offsetting the loss of Burnes with either one of those guys to head the rotation with Freddy would make this a very interesting team to watch this year.

That's not how this works. It's more like the Pirates will have 10 pitchers that each have a 90% chance of having an ERA between 3.65 and 5.30 ERAs. I just made up the +-.5 range on them and the 90% number, each might be larger or smaller, but the point is the projections are not exact predictions, just midpoints where, with a large sample size, 50% of players should underperform the projections and 50% should overperform them.

Bucks have won 7 of their last 9 and held opponents under 100 points in 6 of those games. Do we dare say they're finally turning that corner? 😬 11 of their next 12 games are against above .500 teams. So I guess we'll find out over the next couple weeks!

For context, is this what you're referring to?

Could be they'd just like to get him a few games in a row at 3B before giving him some games at 2B instead of bouncing him back and forth. Let's see what they do 4 games into Spring Training 😉

I think we have a pretty interesting mix of guys in camp at this point, but if we were to sign anyone else I would want either a starting pitcher that can eat some innings (as outlined previously), a position player that is a clear upgrade over our current options (ie. Chapman at 3rd or Martinez or Belt at DH) or a player that can play multiple positions (ie. Solano). After sorting through the remaining free agents, that left me with the following four players: Not sure why all the projection systems have Martinez with a wRC+ in the 106-112 range, He's had wRC+'s of 126, 119, and 135 the past three seasons and would definitely be a nice presence in the lineup vs both righties and lefties. Belt would pair well as the left handed side of a DH platoon (w/ Sanchez/Contreras filling C/DH against lefties). Chapman's the best all around position player left and I would definitely take him if he came in on a prove it deal, but he would also be cemented at 3rd which would limit some of the young bats from finding some playing time. Solano would be a solid bat in the lineup and his defensive flexibility would be nice as the season goes on as he could help wherever he's needed as younger players succeed or struggle at different positions.

He didn't pass my xFIP lower than 4.50 threshhold, but he does seem to be a guy whose results outperform his xFIP (3.77 ERA with a 5.15 xFIP last year, and 4.33 ERA with a 4.76 xFIP in 2022). I wouldn't mind him in the right deal. Here's my full list of remaining SP free agents:

If we grab another SP at this point, I think the emphasis may be on getting an innings eater. I compiled the remaining free agent pitchers and filtered them down to guys that over the past 3 seasons have averaged at least 5 IP per start and an xFIP under 4.50 as a starter: 2021-23 as SP: Snell and Montgomery are likely out of our price range and Bauer and Urias are likely out for other reasons. Domingo German may be the best option of the rest if we just want a little more depth and stabilization for the rotation. Although one last year with Greinke would be fun too :)

Rosario (w/ Rays) and Urshela (w/ Tigers) have each signed 1 yr, $1.5M contracts this week (link). If Solano can be had on a similar contract, I would really like how the roster is shaping out. The IF/DH spots would have some nice options to rotate through: 2021-23 vs. RHP: 2021-23 vs. LHP: *Plus Ortiz and Black who obviously don't have MLB splits available Not that we'd have all 10 of those guys on the roster at the same time, but it would create some nice competition in camp for the last couple spots and add depth and security for the year.

Junis' last 2 years as a reliever (2.4 IP/G): Junis' last 2 years as a starter (4.6 IP/GS): From the innings, you can see he was usually a multi inning relief/piggyback type pitcher as a reliever and likely often used as an "opener" as a starter, but still made it into the 5th inning often in that role as well. So you can definitely derive some of that success in both roles the past two years to minimizing how many times he faced each batter. That said, over that same time, he also produced... 3.15 ERA in 6 games where he pitched at least 6 innings 2.98 ERA in 13 games where he pitched at least 5 innings 3.38 ERA in 24 games where he pitched at least 4 innings 3.55 ERA in 33 games where he pitched at least 3 innings It'll be interesting to see how he's used, but he definitely shows some potential as at least a let him go through the order a couple times type of starter.

I think you're under the impression that my "conclusion" is something other than "the projections for these guys have reasons why they're the projections".

I get that you don't like these guys and that you don't think they'll hit their projections. You also have valid points to why you feel that way, however, I'm not sure where the pushback is coming from though. Last three years (overall stats): Last three years (as starters): I don't think this is "reeeeeally" cherry picking. I think that there is pretty clear and recent evidence that they are capable of pitching in the mid 4s if not better (as indicated by FIP and xFIP numbers). Yes, there are reasons and older history with both showing they could very well do worse than that as well, but to call their projections laughable and to say that there are no indicators that support them seems like a stretch to me.

I provided career and last 3 year stats in my original post. Then my last one was in response to your "starter" stats that appeared incorrect, so I included the "as starters" stats for the years you had incorrect numbers for and the more recent years that you didn't provide stats for, for whatever reason. Your original claim was that there wasn't evidence that they could pitch to mid 4 ERAs as starters and I pointed out that's pretty much exactly what they've done in that role both in their whole careers and more recently.

I have the same question 😆

Where are you getting your splits? Junis (stats): 4.61 ERA as a starter in 2021, 4.82 in 2022, 0.00 in 2023 Ross (stats): 3.02 ERA as a starter in 2019, 4.02 in 2021 Now if you want to argue small samples sizes or that they don't pitch enough innings in their starts or something, that's one thing, but I think you're off on the stats you're looking at/providing.

Because they have both pitched to mid 4s ERA or better as starters in their career? And as starters in the past 3 seasons?

Yeah, I had trouble finding a match as well. I think it'd almost have to be a 3-team trade, maybe something like:

I'm on the Solano train. Seems like a nice bat that has the ability to play multiple positions (1B, 2B, 3B, DH) allowing Murphy to mix and match him in the lineup and provides flexibility throughout the season depending on how the young guys progress (or flop). 2021-23 vs. RHP: 2021-23 vs. LHP: Throw Ortiz and Black into the mix and we have some nice options. I guess the main question is whether or not he's too much of a liability defensively to be used in that role.

Here's the tweet:

Pitchers and catchers are reporting today/tomorrow and there's still a lot of quality players looking for jobs (https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker): 7 of the 32 FAs proj for at least 1.5 fWAR still available 5 of the 18 FAs proj for 1.0-1.4 fWAR still available 16 of the 43 FAs proj for 0.5-0.9 fWAR still available That's over 30% of the top 93 FAs!