brewerfan82

I have the same question 😆

Where are you getting your splits? Junis (stats): 4.61 ERA as a starter in 2021, 4.82 in 2022, 0.00 in 2023 Ross (stats): 3.02 ERA as a starter in 2019, 4.02 in 2021 Now if you want to argue small samples sizes or that they don't pitch enough innings in their starts or something, that's one thing, but I think you're off on the stats you're looking at/providing.

Because they have both pitched to mid 4s ERA or better as starters in their career? And as starters in the past 3 seasons?

Yeah, I had trouble finding a match as well. I think it'd almost have to be a 3-team trade, maybe something like:

I'm on the Solano train. Seems like a nice bat that has the ability to play multiple positions (1B, 2B, 3B, DH) allowing Murphy to mix and match him in the lineup and provides flexibility throughout the season depending on how the young guys progress (or flop). 2021-23 vs. RHP: 2021-23 vs. LHP: Throw Ortiz and Black into the mix and we have some nice options. I guess the main question is whether or not he's too much of a liability defensively to be used in that role.

Here's the tweet:

Pitchers and catchers are reporting today/tomorrow and there's still a lot of quality players looking for jobs (https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker): 7 of the 32 FAs proj for at least 1.5 fWAR still available 5 of the 18 FAs proj for 1.0-1.4 fWAR still available 16 of the 43 FAs proj for 0.5-0.9 fWAR still available That's over 30% of the top 93 FAs!

Just for some extra context, while Gasser's 3.79 ERA and 1.28 WHIP sound okay and not remarkable at first glance, here's how his numbers compare to the 38 AAA pitchers that threw at least 100 IP last year: 3.79 ERA (2nd) 3.71 FIP (2nd) 4.52 xFIP (4th) 1.28 WHIP (4th) .217 AVG (4th) 166 Ks (1st) 11.04 K/9 (1st) 3.33 BB/9 (13th) 3.32 K/BB (2nd) 0.80 HR/9 (4th) Considering as a 24 year old he was also still 2.9 years younger than the average AAA player, that ain't bad. Also noteworthy, here are Burnes' and Woodruff's numbers in AAA: Burnes (as a 23 and 24 year old) - 5.88 ERA, 1.505 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 101.0 IP Woodruff (mainly as a 24 and 25 year old with a few innings at 29 and 30) - 4.21 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 154.0 IP

Question: The draft is still being held mid-season, right? Or are they moving it to the offseason next year?

Not necessarily. You're not just losing Adames and Williams and only gaining Snell, you're also getting back supposedly young, controllable talent for Adames and Williams as well. According to the BTV site, Adames (11.1) and Williams (22.4) have roughly the same value as Burnes (33.3). If you were to get another equivalent of Hall, Ortiz, and a comp pick for those two, you'd have two replacements for both players right away to mitigate some of the drop off, plus 9 more years of control between the two of them, and another draft pick. If that also frees up enough money to add someone like Snell, you are quite arguably better off both this year and in the future. That said, that's a lot of moving pieces that need to fall into place (especially the part where Snell's price drops into our price range at a number of years that makes sense), so I'd be surprised if it played out that way.

Well that is sadly a SIGNIFICANT improvement over our DH's last year. 🙃

I saw a Tweet about how surprisingly good Sanchez' defensive stats are and decided to look it up... 2021-23: I'm no expert on defensive stats, especially with catchers, but he does seem to fair better than I would have expected given his reputation. My initial thought after the signing was we might keep Haase on the roster for his defense (or moreso because I assumed Sanchez was a liability there), but looks like Sanchez can more than hold his own as THE backup catcher.

Ohtani!?? 👀

Currently, looks like $7M plus an option: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/brewers-to-sign-gary-sanchez.html Wouldn't be surprised if it ends up actually being something similar to the Junis deal though.

I would guess it has minimal affect on the current catchers in the system, but if anything, I would guess it might make Quero (who's already blocked and may have already be dangled in discussions) more available than it would Contreras. But again, I kind of doubt it really affects either of them, especially if he's getting picked up more as a DH than a backup C. That said, will be interesting to hear how the FO views him!

There's still 16 free agents out there projected for at least 1.0 fWAR (according to Steamer I believe): https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?&sign=unsigned Biggest Splashes Available (Unlikely, but we're at that point in the offseason where it's possible these guys may have over-valued themselves and now need to take shorter prove it deals): SP - Snell - 3.3 proj. fWAR, 5/$125M proj. contract SP - Montgomery - 3.2, 5/$105M 3B - Chapman - 2.6, 4/$80M 1B/CF - Bellinger - 2.4, 6/$144M More Realistic SP Possibilities: SP - Ryu - 1.8, 1/$10M SP - Clevinger - 1.3, 2/$24M SP - Lorenzen - 1.2, 2/$20M SP - Greinke - 1.1, 1/$7M SP - German - 1.1, n/a SP - Bauer - 0.0 (0.9 ZiPS), n/a Other names: Syndergaard (0.6), Hill (0.6), Cueto (0.5), Davies (0.5), Kluber (0.5), Keuchel (0.4), Rucinski (0.4), Teheran (0.4), Odorizzi (0.4) More Realistic IF Possibilities: SS/2B - Rosario - 2.3 (Steamer is higher on him than other projections), 2/$18M SS/2B - Tim Anderson - 1/$8M 3B/1B/SS - Urshela - 1.1, n/a 2B/3B - Segura - 1.0, n/a 2B/OF - Merrifield - 0.7, 2/$16M IF/OF - Kiki Hernandez - 0.7, n/a 2B/1B/3B - Solano - 0.6, n/a Other names: Tony Kemp (0.9), Crawford (0.8), Andrus (0.8), Wong (0.7), Longoria (0.6), Profar (0.6), Donaldson (0.5), Brian Anderson (0.5), Mondesi (0.4), Eduardo Escobar (0.3) More Realistic DH/1B Possibilities: DH/OF - Soler - 1.9, 3/$48M 1B/DH - Choi - 0.6, n/a 1B - Belt - 0.5, 1/$9.5M DH - J.D. Martinez - 0.5, 1/$12M Other names: Dom Smith (0.4), Vogelbach (0.4), Cron (0.2)

To get the comp pick after the 1st round we have to offer him the QO offer for $20M+ AND he has to sign a contract worth at least $50M, correct? I'm afraid he's right in that area where 1.) we may not want to offer him $20M+ or 2.) even if we did and he turns it down, he might not get a $50M contract because he could be one of these stragglers looking to sign a 1 year prove it deal as Spring Training approaches next year. I think if you find fair trade value for him, you take it and run with Ortiz at SS. If the FO really wants to still compete this year, then hopefully flip the $12M freed up towards adding another bat like Soler or J.D. Martinez, or probably on a more realistic level, someone like Urshela or Solano.

I think he deleted that tweet already (which was jsut a couple emojis, something along the lines of a sad and a shocked one, for anyone that missed it), but regardless, I wouldn't read too much into it. Guys, just like us here, are going to have an initial gut punch to hearing news like that. I would be surprised if there are any longterm issues he has with it, especially considering he didn't even catch for him regularly.

I think you're underselling his minor league performance: 2019 - A (-0.9 age vs. league average), .241/.341/.267, 96 wRC+ 2021 - A+ (-0.9), .289/.382/.434, 123 wRC+ 2021 - AA (-1.9), .233/.313/.467, 111 wRC+ 2022 - AA (-0.9), .269/.337/.455, 115 wRC+ 2022 - AAA (-3.4), .346/.400/.567, 154 wRC+ 2023 - AAA (-2.3), .321/.378/.507, 121 wRC+ That's some pretty consistent well above average offense while being younger than league average every season. Throw in elite defense and you've got a pretty nice player there.

Well they are both currently on top 100 lists (Hall on Baseball America's list, and Ortiz on MLB's list). Also "struggled mightily at the MLB level" is strong/inaccurate for one guy that has 4.36 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, 11.45 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 0.55 HR/9, and 0.8 fWAR in only 33 IP in the majors, and another guy that only has 34 PAs in the majors.

Serious question... For those worried about the "mixed signals" and "lack of direction" shown this offseason, even if the Brewers had decided it was in the best interest of the team to trade Burnes going into the offseason and knew he'd be gone, what is the downside of signing Hoskins? Are you just worried about draft position? Otherwise, I don't see any reason to complain about a team that is looking out for it's longterm health while also fielding a competitive team in the present. I could see the argument if we had some big time first base prospect that was getting blocked by the pickup, but that isn't the case (maybe in a year or two, but likely not for the duration of Hoskins contract). This is still a pretty decent team on paper with a lot of exciting young talent and the division is still wide open. I don't see a reason to completely tear down the roster and not try to compete this year just because we have some expiring contracts that have/or may get moved to help the future of the franchise.

lol, fair, there were definitely people frustrated with them not trading him, but I can't say if they're the same ones complaining now or not. 🫡

Maybe we just found the new market inefficiency? Older prospects are frowned upon... but they also mean team control through all their peak years. 🤔

One thing not mentioned so far, both these guys are rookie eligible correct? Add two more bullets for that possible rookie of the year compensation! (actually not sure Hall is eligible anymore having dropped off MLB's top 100 list for the first time in like 6 years, lol)