Ro Mueller

Esteury Ruiz and {X} for Travis d’Arnaud? What is {X} - Matt Bush? Mike Brosseau? Cousins or Topa? Tyrone Taylor?

Esteury Ruiz and {X} for Travis d’Arnaud? What is {X} - Matt Bush? Mike Brosseau? Cousins or Topa? Tyrone Taylor?

24-year old dude threw 141 innings in AAA, then pitched ANOTHER 100 innings in MLB the same season. Man, the game has changed and will never return to those days. I think it took the fraying of pitchers like Kerry Wood and Ben Sheets for teams to really wake up.

24-year old dude threw 141 innings in AAA, then pitched ANOTHER 100 innings in MLB the same season. Man, the game has changed and will never return to those days. I think it took the fraying of pitchers like Kerry Wood and Ben Sheets for teams to really wake up.

I’d be interested in young pitchers coming off an encouraging season: Knarr, Jarvis, Castaneda, Cornielle, Rodriguez, Cruz, Robinson…

I’d be interested in young pitchers coming off an encouraging season: Knarr, Jarvis, Castaneda, Cornielle, Rodriguez, Cruz, Robinson…

Sounds like Cameron could talk about baseball non-stop for hours! Well done, Seth!

Sounds like Cameron could talk about baseball non-stop for hours! Well done, Seth!

I think Sheffield fits in well with the recent theme of general managers perhaps underestimating the ripple effect of their moves - e.g. Rodgers reacting to loss of Adams, Brewers' roster reacting to Hader trade, Sheffield reacting to trade of Dave Parker prior to 1991 season. I remember when a young Sheffield was upset that Bill Spiers played shortstop ahead of him, but in 1990 he nicely restored his full prospect value: 116 OPS+ in 547 PAs as a 21-year old. However, the team went 74-88 as they allowed the most runs in the American League and Molitor was limited to 103 games. With the club ready to move on from the 39-year old Parker (who was actually terrific in 1990, then struggled in 1991, essentially proving the Brewers' wisdom in trading him), this was actually the time (e.g. December 1990) to also trade Sheffield rather than risk him falling into a funk without his mentor Parker around. It's remarkable that the 1991 club was actually respectable, despite Sheffield doing nothing and the team's new spending (e.g. Franklin Stubbs, Edwin Nunez, raises for Ted Higuera and Chuck Crim) not panning out.

I think Sheffield fits in well with the recent theme of general managers perhaps underestimating the ripple effect of their moves - e.g. Rodgers reacting to loss of Adams, Brewers' roster reacting to Hader trade, Sheffield reacting to trade of Dave Parker prior to 1991 season. I remember when a young Sheffield was upset that Bill Spiers played shortstop ahead of him, but in 1990 he nicely restored his full prospect value: 116 OPS+ in 547 PAs as a 21-year old. However, the team went 74-88 as they allowed the most runs in the American League and Molitor was limited to 103 games. With the club ready to move on from the 39-year old Parker (who was actually terrific in 1990, then struggled in 1991, essentially proving the Brewers' wisdom in trading him), this was actually the time (e.g. December 1990) to also trade Sheffield rather than risk him falling into a funk without his mentor Parker around. It's remarkable that the 1991 club was actually respectable, despite Sheffield doing nothing and the team's new spending (e.g. Franklin Stubbs, Edwin Nunez, raises for Ted Higuera and Chuck Crim) not panning out.

I suspect that Brent Suter is essentially our Marcedes Lewis, so we’ll re-sign him for more than most analysts would expect.

I suspect that Brent Suter is essentially our Marcedes Lewis, so we’ll re-sign him for more than most analysts would expect.

They’ll make up for it next year with Frelick, Turang, Ruiz, etc. It’s something of a mystery to me why the Brewers gave Alexander four starts down the stretch (losing all 4 games). I understood giving Alexander a try in June when he was cruising in AAA, essentially in a coin flip with Lindblom at that time. But the lead-up to the August 30th - September 18th starts was in Lindblom’s favor, who’d discarded some attempted pitching tweaks and was solid from August 11th onward. Refusing to shake anything up on the MLB side felt like part of the front office and coaching staff’s lazy approach to a disappointing season…

They’ll make up for it next year with Frelick, Turang, Ruiz, etc. It’s something of a mystery to me why the Brewers gave Alexander four starts down the stretch (losing all 4 games). I understood giving Alexander a try in June when he was cruising in AAA, essentially in a coin flip with Lindblom at that time. But the lead-up to the August 30th - September 18th starts was in Lindblom’s favor, who’d discarded some attempted pitching tweaks and was solid from August 11th onward. Refusing to shake anything up on the MLB side felt like part of the front office and coaching staff’s lazy approach to a disappointing season…

I'm seeing a 2.85 ERA and .605 OPS against in 41 IP through August 4th, then a 5.32 ERA and .817 OPS against in 23 2/3 IP the rest of the way. But his average number of pitches to hitters was the same in each period (4.00), his strike % was actually higher in the latter part (62% rising to 64%), his strikeouts/batter was also higher in that latter period (21.9% rising to 26.2%), though walks ticked up slightly (5.3% rising to 5.8%) and homers allowed rose materially (0.6% rising to 3.9%). To me, the data suggests that more balls landed safely (.296 BABIP rising to .349) and more balls left the yard (1 in the first 41 IP; 4 in the last 23 2/3 IP). Honestly, the .349 BABIP seems unfairly high in the dismal part of the year, while the 0.6% HR ratio in the successful part of the season seems too low. I'd expect Milner to still be a solid contributor next season, although we need to sign a top lefty reliever to replace Hader/Rogers. Overall, our RHP numbers were better than our LHP numbers in 2022, which I place at the feet of Mr. Stearns for only signing Rex Brothers in the off-season then whiffing on Taylor Rogers.

I'm seeing a 2.85 ERA and .605 OPS against in 41 IP through August 4th, then a 5.32 ERA and .817 OPS against in 23 2/3 IP the rest of the way. But his average number of pitches to hitters was the same in each period (4.00), his strike % was actually higher in the latter part (62% rising to 64%), his strikeouts/batter was also higher in that latter period (21.9% rising to 26.2%), though walks ticked up slightly (5.3% rising to 5.8%) and homers allowed rose materially (0.6% rising to 3.9%). To me, the data suggests that more balls landed safely (.296 BABIP rising to .349) and more balls left the yard (1 in the first 41 IP; 4 in the last 23 2/3 IP). Honestly, the .349 BABIP seems unfairly high in the dismal part of the year, while the 0.6% HR ratio in the successful part of the season seems too low. I'd expect Milner to still be a solid contributor next season, although we need to sign a top lefty reliever to replace Hader/Rogers. Overall, our RHP numbers were better than our LHP numbers in 2022, which I place at the feet of Mr. Stearns for only signing Rex Brothers in the off-season then whiffing on Taylor Rogers.

Garrett Mitchell takes home the Brewer Fanatic Rookie of the Year prize, producing an .832 OPS down the stretch while playing terrific center field defense. In also swiping eight bases without being caught, Mitchell heralds an exciting new brand of baseball in Milwaukee. Making his major league debut on August 27th, Garrett Mitchell exceeded all expectations at the plate and didn’t disappoint in center field either, blazing by other candidates to capture Brewer Fanatic's first Rookie of the Year award. Major League Stats: .311 AVG / .373 OBP / .459 SLG in 68 PAs, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 9 Runs, 8 SB (vs. 0 CS). As the team tried to secure the last National League playoff spot, the only teammates to exceed Mitchell’s .832 OPS over the season’s final 40 days were INF Kolten Wong (.939), INF Luis Urias (.922) and OF Tyrone Taylor (.881). Garrett’s first dinger in the majors was a game-tying 2-run shot in an August 29th victory against the Pirates and he delivered his first walk-off hit on September 16th against the Yankees. In all, Mr. Mitchell saw action in 28 games, including 19 starts, with all 176 1/3 of his innings logged in center field. He committed just one error, had one assist and sprinkled in some highlight reel catches. Although he wasn’t necessarily the young outfielder many fans expected the Brewers to promote for the stretch run, the 24-year-old Mitchell clearly rates as the top defensive center fielder in the system, giving him the edge to secure an early promotion which he took full advantage of. The exciting finale to Mitchell's season was even more remarkable considering a relatively slow start at AA Biloxi (.676 over his first 30 games), followed by missing 54 days due to injury. However, Mitchell was a man on a mission after his return: .934 OPS in 34 games at Biloxi and AAA Nashville, with 10 stolen bases (vs. 0 caught stealing). Of course, there’s still some work to be done at the plate (e.g. 28 Ks in 68 MLB PAs), but fans should expect the hard-working, always hard-charging 20th overall pick out of UCLA in the 2020 draft to be a fixture in center field at American Family Field for many years to come. Runner-Up: Peter Strzelecki, RHP Major League Stats (30 G): 2-1 record, 2.83 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 40 K, 15 BB, 35 IP, 1 Save Called up to the majors on June 2nd, Peter Strzelecki debuted the same day, ultimately becoming one of the most reliable arms in an otherwise-struggling bullpen. In fact, he appeared in 28 games over the season’s final 52 days, delivering a 2.63 ERA and .200 batting average against in 24 innings over that final stretch. After the June debut, the Brewers optioned Peter back to the minors on three separate occasions, but they recalled him to MLB for good on August 13. Given his stellar contributions, several voters selected Strzelecki as their winner, but perhaps two blown saves and a purely relief role left him second to Mitchell overall at the ballot box. The 27-year-old Strzelecki joined the Brewers’ organization as an undrafted free agent out of the University of South Florida in 2018, producing solid results at Low-A Wisconsin in 2019 (3.22 ERA) and AA Biloxi in 2021 (3.45 ERA), then was even better in AAA Nashville this year (4-0 record, 2.84 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 14.2 K/9). The question for 2023 will be whether Mr. Strzelecki can maintain this level of excellence. Certainly, the .295 BABIP (vs. .281 team average) indicates that he wasn’t living off undue luck, although the 1.4% HR rate (vs. 3.1% team average) may be difficult to duplicate. Second Runner-Up: Jason Alexander, RHP Major League Stats (18 G): 2-3 record, 5.40 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 46 K, 28 BB, 71 2/3 IP After losing Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff to injury in late May, Jason Alexander debuted on June 1st and provided just what the doctor ordered over his first five starts: 2-0 record, 3.21 ERA in 28 innings. However, with Woodruff re-activated on June 28th, Alexander was shifted to long relief with various spot starts, which didn’t go quite as well for the 29-year-old: 0-3 record, 6.80 ERA in 43 2/3 innings. Alexander had originally gone undrafted out of Cal State University Long Beach in 2017, spending three seasons with the Angels before being a Covid roster cut in June 2020, then spending an injury-filled 2021 in the Marlins’ organization before latching on with the Brewers as a free agent in November 2021. In 2022, Mr. Alexander immediately impressed at AAA Nashville by going 6-2 with a 2.64 ERA over his first nine starts, thus earning the early season call-up. He’s a ground ball pitcher, producing a 1.67 ground-out to air-out ratio with the Brewers and similar 1.71 ratio with Nashville. Other Major League debuts in 2022: LHP Ethan Small – May 30 – 6 1/3 IP* RHP Luke Barker (now a free agent) – June 3 – 4 IP* Other 2022 Brewers who qualified as Rookies: OF Esteury Ruiz - 9 PAs* C Mario Feliciano - 5 PAs* INF/OF Mark Mathias (now with Texas) - 17 PAs RHP Trevor Kelley - 23 2/3 IP RHP Justin Topa - 7 1/3 IP* * Players marked with an asterisk will still qualify as Rookies in 2023, including OF Garrett Mitchell (award winner), which is based on 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days' major league service time being surpassed What did you think of the contributions of Mitchell, Strzelecki, Alexander, and other rookies? Do you agree with the voters’ selection? Your comments are welcome! 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MLB debut for RHP Nash Walters, whom the Brewers traded on September 4th:

I agree that Stearns expected far more from our lefties, likely including Small. There’s no other way to explain why we added several AAAA righties (Alexander, Gott, Kelley, Mejia, Hobie Harris, Urena), but only brought in Rex Brothers on the left side. We’re honestly very lucky that Hoby Milner exceeded expectations and Brent Suter eventually found his form. Also agreed on McCutchen - overpaid and overplayed. There’s no excuse for failing to bring in someone, anyone to reduce that work load, whether they’re scrubby AAAA-types like Almonte, Mathias or Singleton or a genuine acquisition like Whit Merrifleld. You don’t just do nothing. And we even had an obvious weakness to address: struggles against left-handed pitching.

I agree that Stearns expected far more from our lefties, likely including Small. There’s no other way to explain why we added several AAAA righties (Alexander, Gott, Kelley, Mejia, Hobie Harris, Urena), but only brought in Rex Brothers on the left side. We’re honestly very lucky that Hoby Milner exceeded expectations and Brent Suter eventually found his form. Also agreed on McCutchen - overpaid and overplayed. There’s no excuse for failing to bring in someone, anyone to reduce that work load, whether they’re scrubby AAAA-types like Almonte, Mathias or Singleton or a genuine acquisition like Whit Merrifleld. You don’t just do nothing. And we even had an obvious weakness to address: struggles against left-handed pitching.

Timber Rattler Director of Bullpen Operations Pat McGuff had some comments in Chris Mehring’s September 14 SoundCloud interview, talking about how they helped Floyd with a mentality shift, as he was stressed out over poor results and things outside of his control. The positivity shift helped him return to being more aggressive and confident, without really making serious adjustments on the “pitch side”. Floyd was a guy that many of us expected to continue rocketing up the system (2.89 ERA in 2021 with a 13.5 K/9 rate?!?). But instead, he basically ended up in a group with Alec Bettinger and Ashton McGee – respectable prospects who put up inexplicably woeful numbers out of the gate in 2022, with Bettinger and Floyd initially given some leeway due to starting their seasons late (May 4th for Floyd). Through 25 games in 2022, Floyd’s ERA was 9.20 and he’d struck out 29 batters in 612 pitches (21.1 pitches/K ratio vs. 10.8 in 2021), before he re-discovered his skills: 1.33 ERA over final 16 games with 38 Ks in 469 pitches (12.3 pitches/K ratio). That level of deviation can’t be explained simply as a function of level (largely AA vs. High-A in this case), so it’s great to hear they helped him get out of that funk. I’m sure they’ll give him another turn at AA Biloxi to start next season and it should go far better this time around.

Timber Rattler Director of Bullpen Operations Pat McGuff had some comments in Chris Mehring’s September 14 SoundCloud interview, talking about how they helped Floyd with a mentality shift, as he was stressed out over poor results and things outside of his control. The positivity shift helped him return to being more aggressive and confident, without really making serious adjustments on the “pitch side”. Floyd was a guy that many of us expected to continue rocketing up the system (2.89 ERA in 2021 with a 13.5 K/9 rate?!?). But instead, he basically ended up in a group with Alec Bettinger and Ashton McGee – respectable prospects who put up inexplicably woeful numbers out of the gate in 2022, with Bettinger and Floyd initially given some leeway due to starting their seasons late (May 4th for Floyd). Through 25 games in 2022, Floyd’s ERA was 9.20 and he’d struck out 29 batters in 612 pitches (21.1 pitches/K ratio vs. 10.8 in 2021), before he re-discovered his skills: 1.33 ERA over final 16 games with 38 Ks in 469 pitches (12.3 pitches/K ratio). That level of deviation can’t be explained simply as a function of level (largely AA vs. High-A in this case), so it’s great to hear they helped him get out of that funk. I’m sure they’ll give him another turn at AA Biloxi to start next season and it should go far better this time around.

What a debut season it was for Carlos F. Rodriguez, settling in after a rocky start to dominate with a 2.27 ERA over his final 22 games. In a tough selection for voters, Rodriguez emerged the winner ahead of 12-win Caleb Boushley, 11-win Brandon Knarr and other terrific prospects. A sixth-round draft pick out of Florida Southwestern State College in 2021 who didn’t make his organizational debut until April this year, Carlos F. Rodriguez got ever-stronger as the season chugged along, nipping many worthy candidates for this prestigious award. Low-A/High-A Stats (26 G): 6-5 record, 3.01 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 129 K, 40 BB, 107 2/3 IP, 1 Save While the aggregate numbers may not be jaw-dropping, let’s see what happens when we exclude the four initial nerve-wracking outings from before Mr. Rodriguez got his feet settled under him: 2.27 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, .170 batting average against, 121 Ks vs. 38 walks in 99 1/3 innings over his final 22 games. The 20-year-old 6’0” Nicaraguan native was the Brewers’ top starting pitcher in Low-A Carolina for most of the season, registering the top WHIP (1.12 vs. Stiven Cruz’ 1.31) and second-best ERA (3.53 vs. Alexander Cornielle’s 3.19) before earning a deserved promotion to High-A Wisconsin on August 3rd. Then in seven starts as a Timber Rattler, Rodriguez’s results got even better, as he went 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with 45 Ks in 36 1/3 innings pitched, perhaps tempting Brewers’ brass to consider an early promotion to AA Biloxi in 2023. Despite the 107 2/3 innings of work, the game logs suggest that the Brewers actually held Carlos back a bit, as he never threw more than 89 pitches in any contest. Of course, this makes it even more remarkable that he struck out five or more batters in 15 of his 26 outings. Congratulations to Carlos Fernando Rodriguez! Runner-Up: Brandon Knarr, LHP High-A/AA (26 G): 11-8 record, 2.83 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 152 K, 47 BB, 146 1/3 IP In a way, Brandon Knarr was also a sixth-round draft pick, albeit in 2020 when MLB reduced the draft to only five rounds. As such, the Brewers snapped him up as an undrafted free agent out of the University of Tampa. This year, Knarr was simply dominant in High-A ball, delivering a 1.57 ERA (4th best in the league) and 0.98 WHIP (11th best in the league) and earning seven victories while striking out 65 batters against just 13 walks. After turning 24 years old, Brandon was promoted to AA Biloxi on June 7th, where the sailing was rougher but still very respectable: 3.64 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 87 Ks vs. 34 walks. With nearly 150 innings under his belt in 2022, I suspect that Knarr is facing a relatively quiet offseason. Second Runner-Up: Caleb Boushley, RHP AAA Stats (25 G): 12-2 record, 3.25 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 91 K, 43 BB, 127 1/3 IP Being the winningest pitcher in the International League was enough to earn Hortonville, Wisconsin native Boushley the Sounds’ Pitcher of the Year Award, but only garnered him third place on this list. Don’t worry, he’s earning other dividends, including an upcoming start in the AAA playoffs tonight(!) in Las Vegas. The 28-year-old, former 33rd-round pick of the Padres out of UW-La Crosse in 2017 was wisely selected by the Brewers in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 draft in December 2021, serving as a steady rock amidst the constant roster changes which typify AAA baseball. Caleb may not overwhelm the opposition with strikeouts, but the man consistently induces weak contact (.226 batting average and .667 OPS against). Will Boushley earn a spot on the 26-man MLB roster next spring? Third Runner-Up: Stiven Cruz, RHP Low-A/High-A Stats (19 G): 4-6 record, 3.74 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 109 K, 24 BB, 91 1/3 IP Signed as an international free agent in July 2019, Cruz had to wait just over two years to make his organizational debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2021. Despite solid results there (1.37 ERA with 73 Ks in 52 2/3 IP), it was still a surprise when the 20-year-old from Nicaragua bypassed the Arizona Complex League and was promoted directly to Low-A Carolina in May 2022. However, Cruz immediately dazzled by opening the season with 12 strikeouts over eight shutout innings. After an up-and-down middle part of the season (5.43 ERA over 12 games), Cruz finished with a flourish: 0.39 ERA over his final five games, four of which were at High-A Wisconsin. Honorable Mentions: Justin Jarvis, RHP (High-A/AA): 11-9 record, 3.83 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 150 K, 66 BB, 141 IP Selected in the 5th round of the 2018 draft out of Lake Norman High School (NC), Jarvis needed a few years under his belt to learn to excel in High-A ball, but came through admirably this season. The 22-year-old posted a 1.29 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 ratio in 24 starts at Wisconsin, before moving up to AA Biloxi for his final four starts (2.70 ERA in 20 AA innings). Alexander Cornielle, RHP (Low-A/High-A): 10-7 record, 3.03 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 145 K, 59 BB, 119 IP Cornielle was a July 2019 international signing who threw just four innings in his first two years in the organization before making his stateside debut in Arizona in July 2021. This season, the now-21-year-old Dominican Republic native broke camp with Low-A Carolina and was something of a Houdini the first two months (3.22 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 36 1/3 IP) before significantly cutting down on traffic the rest of the year (2.94 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over final 82 2/3 IP), including three starts at High-A Wisconsin to finish a very encouraging campaign. Antoine Kelly, LHP (High-A): 2-4 record, 3.86 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 119 K, 52 BB, 91 IP Since traded to Texas alongside Mark Mathias for Matt Bush, 22-year old Kelly spent most of 2022 as the Brewers’ perceived top pitching prospect, dominating opposition over the first three months (3.27 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, .181 batting average against, 93 Ks in 71 2/3 IP). However, the expected promotion of the 2019 second-round pick to AA didn’t materialize (Walk issues? Tired arm? Diminish Rule 5 selection prospects?). After a rough July (6.05 ERA, 18 walks in 19 1/3 IP), the trade went through and Kelly had some struggles at AA Frisco over his final seven games (7.23 ERA in 18 2/3 IP). Victor Castaneda, RHP (AA/AAA): 6-6 record, 4.10 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 118 K, 52 BB, 120 2/3 IP An international signing out of Mexico in July 2017, Castaneda produced his third straight solid season, ranking second amongst Biloxi starters in ERA (3.97, after Knarr) and WHIP (1.35, after LHP Nick Bennett). The now-24-year-old’s strikeouts declined versus prior years (8.8 K/9 vs. 10.8 in 2019/2021), but thankfully so did his ERA (4.10 vs. 4.76 in 2019/2021). Three starts at AAA Nashville concluded his 2022 campaign, which is presumably where he’ll commence in 2023. Which Brewers’ starting pitching prospects do you have your eyes on? Would you have selected a different award winner? Your comments are welcome! View full article