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Simba2020

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Everything posted by Simba2020

  1. Simba2020
    Well they just signed Nathan Patterson to a minor league contract. That's a cheap pitcher.
  2. Simba2020
    I've been one in the past to clearly question how good hitters are that call Coors Field home. I know I'm always irritated when Brewers announcers fawn all over the Rockies offense when they are playing on the road. Their road OPS splits are almost always right where the worst offenses in the league are. That being said, I do think hitters are able to adjust over time when they no longer call Coors Field their home. Another example is Corey Dickerson. Smaller sample sizes, but he hit .355 at Coors and .249 on the road. After his trade, he hit .284 from 2016-19 including a couple of .300 seasons.
  3. Simba2020
    Sounds like Frazier is the next Pirates player to be on the move. Does he make sense at all? Pretty decent 2B and LF defensively. Left handed bat that makes consistent contact. Likely to make around $10 million through arbitration next two years.
  4. Simba2020
    They are not rumors the Brewers truly did meet with Semien and have met with Turner and a few other free agents. Rumors was perhaps a poor word choice. Unless the Brewers actually do make an even semi-significant signing, I just can't believe that they were serious suitors for guys like Semien or Turner. Rosario I could possibly see them being in the ballpark money-wise but still not sure about adding another outfielder.
  5. Simba2020
    Where do these rumors come from? I figured he would be looking at something like 4/$52 or 1/$16-$18. Can't see how we were going to get in that neighborhood. Turner could be looking at something similar for a 1 year deal, maybe a bit more. Another one I just don't see as realistic.
  6. Simba2020
    Another trade a little heavier on quantity than quality for the Pirates.
  7. Simba2020
    I would actually be against this signing, at least when considering what it would likely cost to get him under contract. He is due massive regression off of his numbers from last year. I would expect him to hit much closer to the .241 average he had in 2019 than the .338 he hit last year. Almost everyone feels he should be a DH at this point of his career so can he really be expected to play the outfield? I'd have far more confidence in Yelich bouncing back in left field defensively than I would Ozuna.
  8. Simba2020
    Very sad indeed. He was my Dad's favorite player and some of my earliest memories were him working in the evening in his bedroom and trying to pick up WSB on the radio to listen to the Braves. And this from someone who hated the Braves for leaving Milwaukee but still loved Henry Aaron.
  9. Simba2020
    Andrew Vaughn turns 23 in April and is ranked as a top 15-30 prospect in baseball (#21 in Baseball America’s Top 100 released earlier this week). He would’ve most likely started 2020 at Double-A had there been an MiLB season. He could be in the majors as soon as this coming season, but should certainly be there no later than 2022 (next season). I just don't share the enthusiasm for Vaughn. .253 at A and .252/.349 at A+... He hasn't seen AA yet much less AAA pitching. If the Brewers were going to get a highly questionable pitcher, I'd want a more polished and MLB ready prospect for Hader. Obviously every single prospect can bust. With that in mind, I'd be more encouraged by his ability to take a walk coupled with a pretty solid contact rate, 30:35 BB:SO, that he's exhibited thus far over the .253 average he's put up in 190 ABs.
  10. Simba2020
    I thought the same thing at first glance but getting one top 10 prospect and three guys in or near the mid-teens is probably not too bad overall. It's not like Musgrove is some kind of stud. Certainly a decent pitcher who isn't making a lot of money the next couple of years either, however.
  11. Simba2020
    Musgrove must be one of the happiest guys in the world right now. Gets traded from what could be one of the all-time worst teams to a team that can certainly contend for a title. Cherry on top is that he's from the San Diego area.
  12. Simba2020
    I won't begin to say I'm excited about the signing but for $900K plus incentives, I think it's an ok signing. He offers good defense at multiple positions and isn't afraid to draw a walk. Batting from the right side doesn't exactly help with any possible platoons however.
  13. Simba2020
    I don't know. An actual major league team just paid Kyle Schwarber $10 million, after he was downright terrible in 2020. Garcia is a year older, but their 3-year splits prior to 2020 compare pretty favorably. Garcia is also a premium corner OF defender, while Schwarber might be one of the worst OF defenders in the majors. I think you are reading WAY too much into 2020 numbers, when by all appearances judging by Schwarber's deal, MLB teams are willing to write them off. Either that, or the Nationals just made a terrible personnel move. At this point in time, you would clearly have to believe that Garcia would have his option declined. That would leave him making $12.5 million this year. If you extrapolate 2020 for a full season, Schwarber would have a 4-year average fWAR of about 2.5 and Garcia right around 2.0. I clearly believe Garcia's number is inflated badly by the 2017 season making that a suspect average. I'd say fWAR of 1.5 would be more accurate if even that. Using Schwarber's contract as a guide, that would put Garcia's value in the $6 to maybe $8 million range. Either way, Garcia would have to be viewed as a major liability and would have absolutely no trade value.
  14. Simba2020
    That is my opinion too. Not sure it makes that much organizational sense to give up draft capital when you can add a solid reliever through free agency. Once the supply of higher-end relievers are gone, then trading for one is the only option left so that's when teams might shift towards Hader. The Dodgers further bolstering of their bullpen may trigger a counter move by the Padres as well.
  15. Simba2020
    And the Padres strike again per Dennis Lin.
  16. Simba2020
    Supposedly they still want Darvish too. I guess if you are going to go all in, you might as well really do it. Almost have to in order to compete with the Dodgers.
  17. Simba2020
    Bell goes to Washington for two right handed pitching prospects, Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean. Crowe was the Nationals third ranked prospect and Yean their 6th. Crowe struggled in his three starts with the Nationals last year and is already 26.
  18. Simba2020
    Well yes, sort of. You're looking at stats he accrued as a teenager playing in the highest level of professional baseball outside of MLB (the last of which was back in 2019). And he is reportedly a legitimate pitching prospect as well. Lastly, I don't think anyone here advocated sticking him into the center of a major league lineup in 2021. After looking further, he only received 18 at bats in the "majors" with the bulk of his stats coming in the Japanese minor leagues. I've read that this probably equates to A ball. I have also read that Colas might wait until the next signing period as most teams have already promised much of their pool space to other signees but I suspect he will sign now.
  19. Simba2020
    I believe the Nippon league rates out to be equal to MLB. A 21 year old who goes .302/.350/.516 would be considered extremely good and you would be looking at a top 50 player in OPS in MLB. OBP alone would put him in the top 25 in all of MLB his numbers would be about the same going from the Nippon League to MLB. I wouldn't put him in the minors and if you do you are looking at a 25-50 ranked prospect so a lot more than 500k-1.5mil. You are probably looking at least $3-5mil for him. Japan is about equal to AAA ball. In no way does OPS and OBP in Japanese lgs. equate to MLB. Pitchers are much better and throw much harder in MLB. Thames said the biggest change coming from Japan was how hard guys threw, both fastballs and breaking balls. Thames played in Korea not in Japan and all of the statistical studies show that the Nippon league is really close to MLB maybe not an exact match but it is a step above AAA. I guess you could call it AAAA but it is really close to MLB. I don't think the two leagues compare very well at all. Ignoring a couple of guys who only got a cup of coffee in MLB, it leaves 14 hitters who have made the move from Japan to MLB. In the three years leading up to the move, those players averaged posted a .307/.383/.508/.891 batting line in Japan. In the three years after making the move (in some cases less) they posted a .278/.342/.412/.754 in MLB.
  20. Simba2020
    But he provides that value on defense as a right fielder where he won a gold glove. People want him to play first base where he is a liability. He's also on record as not wanting to play another position other than right. He makes no sense as a first base target. Plus I expect him to get a minimum of $15 million in arbitration the next two years and wouldn't be surprised if he got $17.5 million.
  21. Simba2020
    I think Gallo's 1B numbers are skewed a bit due to his early career, as I think he was better there in 2018. As you note, he's a plus OF guy. I'm really warming to this idea. Should be within the Brewers' salary confines, and shouldn't require a ton of prospect capital. He'd be a nice addition to the roster. Better in 2018 but still negative but probably still passable. However, he'd be worth far more as an outfielder where he can utilize his strong throwing arm. I'm not sure it would sense to trade prospects for a guy and then use him incorrectly. If you could stick him in right then it would make more sense but would still leave the hole at first. I would not give up Turang in a deal for him under any circumstance personally.
  22. Simba2020
    Not terribly familiar with UZR/150 ratings but interestingly Vogelbach's rating is 2.3 for his career while Gallo's is -4.9 at first and - 6.7 at third. Gallo has been a good defender in the outfield however. Not sure how the shortened season will effect the arbitration process but I would have thought Gallo would be more in line for something closer to $7.5 million next year.
  23. Simba2020
    Personally I have never cared for Fangraphs or others to quote the value per WAR at $9 million or even more. Teams may end up paying that much for WAR but that's because guys like Pujols, David Wright, Ellsbury, Miguel Cabrera (and many, many more) make tons of money while producing little or no WAR. Such players are worth a fraction of what they are being paid and could only be traded with the inclusion of tons of cash if at all. So when those guys are included, it artificially drives up the value per WAR conclusion. Free agent hitters typically sign for $4 to $5 million per WAR and that's what should be used in trying to value draft picks in my opinion.
  24. Simba2020
    His hard hit and barrel percentages were well up last year which may in part have led to his increase in homers. If that was due to improvement due to maturity and not the luck of a smaller sample size, he might be somebody that would be worth grabbing. At least offensively. He's still not worth trading anything of value for as the chances of him being non-tendered following 2021 are high.
  25. Simba2020
    I'd certainly rather have Franco playing third next year than Urias. He's nothing special of course but has averaged 20+ homers in his career and at least doesn't strike out much. His defense has improved the past couple of years as well.
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