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formerlybis

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Everything posted by formerlybis

  1. formerlybis
    Prior to opening game 2, Ashby was arguably the best pitcher on the entire staff over the last two months of the season (with apologies to Uribe). People have micro-recency bias. And I’d think that by now, all the amateur GMs around here would just concede that these guys have a pretty good idea what they’re doing.
  2. formerlybis
    Now THAT was a master class in managing a bullpen/pitching staff. Someone mentioned Myers, and I think if Woodruff isn't ready (which would be surprising if he was), he should be in. I'd think Gasser out.
  3. formerlybis
    This goes back to my point that the players executing matters more. Here's my thoughts about these moves if we didn't know the outcome: -Ashby starting: more likely to work than not; I'll say 67% (and the 33% happened) -Mears: 80% -Miz: easily the most risky; I'd say my thoughts were 25%, but with upside reward (and the 25% hit) -Patrick: 70%, and getting him out after one undramatic inning was ideal. My faith in him is increasing with each outing. -Koenig: 80%, and starting the 8th was fully justified -Megill: 90% - Coming in with a 4-run lead, bases empty and one out was perfect (and a no-brainer). He needed the work, and this was a medium-low leverage situation. If I'm being honest, I don't fully trust he's high-leverage worthy at the moment. -Uribe: 80% - a couple of concerns for not being higher. First, rust - turned out to be unfounded. Second, we had used all the other trusted relievers, so if he did get into trouble, we'd only have Anderson or Gasser to try and salvage it. A 4-run cushion, though, so it is pretty unlikely to get into that much trouble. No way would I have used anyone else there, though. That's obviously unscientific, but if you use my probabilities, the chances of all the positive outcomes that turned out well hitting are .8*.25*.8*.9*,8 = 11.5%. Take out my 25% chance on Miz being successful and it's still 46% (roughly 50-50). The players are the ones who increase the odds
  4. formerlybis
    Someone made the point in the other thread that in hindsight, if you're going to do a bullpen game, it's a better idea to do it when there's an off day the next day. Everyone except probably Miz is available tomorrow (iffy on Ashby, but he could easily come in to close out an inning)
  5. formerlybis
    Execution matters infinitely more than strategy & tactics - not that they're meaningless, but execution flaws can't save sound strategy (e.g., pitching Ashby who's been the best pitcher on the staff over the last two months), and brilliant execution can overcome questionable strategy (e.g., pitching Miz in a postseason tie game). The players deserve the credit for performing way more than the manager does for putting them in those positions. This is the reason I'm pretty zen about all the managerial decisions - up to the players to execute.
  6. formerlybis
    Just for the record, Koenig did pitch the 8th game 1. Mostly agree with the sentiment, but I don't nearly care about knocking off rust more than doing whatever it takes to secure a win tonight. My guess is we'll see just about the whole gang in game 3.
  7. formerlybis
    Truthfully, I think Ashby is our best multi inning pitcher right now, and you can probably drop the multi inning qualifier, too. As an old school guy, I’d rather have him be a bridge to the back end of the BP, but I don’t know why it has to be that way - as long as Aarquinn Priestby gets us through the 6th, it’s a fine plan
  8. formerlybis
    Maybe discussing trading Peralta deserves its own thread outside the IGT. It's a good, meaty topic, but seems like a big distraction to discussing this game or the series. I'm immediately on to thinking about game 2, which seems really pivotal.
  9. formerlybis
    I wouldn't mind getting Megill getting in somewhere in this - he only had that one inning against Cincy
  10. formerlybis
  11. formerlybis
    How depressed will you be if the Padres come back and sink your Cubs? I think we probably wouldn't see you post here for 6 months at least.
  12. formerlybis
    Yeah, I think that's basically it (and Torvik's FUN is "fortune unexplained by numbers or failure unexplained by numbers") and is very similar. I'll leave it at that - all models are wrong, but some are useful.
  13. formerlybis
    Since the end of the game on Sunday, I've been mentally preparing myself for the Cubs. I. like probably everyone, have been dreading all those FIBs in the stands for weeks now. But ... serenity now. Bring it on, whoever's next.
  14. formerlybis
    Oh you hit another favorite topic (maybe you knew that, as I do a regular recap of Badger hoops games by the analytics on one of their sites). I won't derail things too much here, only to say that KenPom and others always have a catch-all category called "luck" (or "F.U.N." on Torvik) which captures either randomness or variation that is (currently) unexplained. I think those guys are always searching for more explanatory data (and I would guess upwards of 95% of teams now use some form of PPP as a strategy from high school on up, too, so that's no longer unique). In baseball, especially before the season starts, I just can't fathom how you'd account for something like the acquisitions of Priester and Vaughn, and their subsequent effectiveness beyond their historical performance. I just don't think there *is* data. Maybe you can give some adjuster to the Dodgers and Yankees always being able to bolster themselves, but not MKE.
  15. formerlybis
    If I were the modeler at Fangraphs, I might look into whether the algorithm needs a Brewers/Angels tweak. It’s the consistent over and under that makes you wonder whether there’s a missing variable.
  16. formerlybis
    Thanks for doing all that work. What we don't know is how much pressure was put on those other teams in the last 40 games by their nearest pursuers. The Brewers had very little this year - they didn't *need* to do more. Maybe those previous playoff years they did, IIRC.
  17. formerlybis
    Unfortunately, I am "that guy"...Pedantically, we need 11 wins, not a "magic number" of 11. Everyone knew what you meant, though. Gonna be a long week
  18. formerlybis
    and now the Phillies are exposed…
  19. formerlybis
    Cincy will be scoreboard watching like crazy. The Mets have a magic number of 3 with 3 games left - mathematically, that means Cincy has a magic number of 4 against NYM. But that's not all...Az is still in this, too. Cincy's magic number to beat the Snakes is 3. That won't matter if they can't get the 4 against the Mets. NYM is at MIA, and AZ is at SD this weekend ETA: Wouldn't it be fun to do some AI deep fake highlight videos of the Mets and D-backs games on the scoreboard to rattle the Reds? Or maybe do two highlights and have the crowd guess which one is real.
  20. formerlybis
    I don’t know if I’d use the word luck, but essentially, yes. I would say that the “A-game” of the big money teams is probably > than the Brewers at their best. Also, the “C-games”. We just need to be a letter grade higher than them. It’s doable - we did it all year. Keep pecking!
  21. formerlybis
    No disagreement. For whatever reason, I am able to compartmentalize "regular season" and "postseason" into two different things. Of course I want them to win the World Series and of course it'll be a bummer if they don't make it out of their first series. I'll be grumpy if and when the latter happens. But it really won't have much of a dousing effect on my regular season buoyancy. Playoffs - in every sport - are a crapshoot, and things just happen. I'm a fan of Badger hoops, and it's the same thing. People - maybe most people - judge the season (and their happiness) on how they do in March Madness (again, a crapshoot, good or bad). The 5 month journey to get there is also enjoyable, if less intense. A second round exit doesn't negate a great year for me.
  22. formerlybis
    I'm sad for all the people that feel this way. One bad week shouldn't negate 6 months of joy, but I know for many it will (should it occur).
  23. formerlybis
    I know your tongue was planted in your cheek - we Americans demand a postseason. Most of the European soccer leagues don’t. There are other “knockout” competitions that culminate in a championship game, but the trophy for winning the regular season is extremely coveted. Not here - you get your playoff games at home and that’s it.
  24. formerlybis
    Bond villains put 007 in their death contraption, walk away, and assume he's dead. This is the same kind of overconfidence that some message board posters display when they belittle those who worry until things are clinched. Also, this guy -
  25. formerlybis
    This was my post on 8/28 in the thread about what would make you happy for this season. Gol' darn it. I should've kept that in my thought bubble (as my wife says to her pupils at school - and me - when inappropriate things get blurted). Fully expecting to go into a tizzy now...
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