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formerlybis

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Everything posted by formerlybis

  1. formerlybis
    Just for the record, Koenig did pitch the 8th game 1. Mostly agree with the sentiment, but I don't nearly care about knocking off rust more than doing whatever it takes to secure a win tonight. My guess is we'll see just about the whole gang in game 3.
  2. formerlybis
    Truthfully, I think Ashby is our best multi inning pitcher right now, and you can probably drop the multi inning qualifier, too. As an old school guy, I’d rather have him be a bridge to the back end of the BP, but I don’t know why it has to be that way - as long as Aarquinn Priestby gets us through the 6th, it’s a fine plan
  3. formerlybis
    Maybe discussing trading Peralta deserves its own thread outside the IGT. It's a good, meaty topic, but seems like a big distraction to discussing this game or the series. I'm immediately on to thinking about game 2, which seems really pivotal.
  4. formerlybis
    I wouldn't mind getting Megill getting in somewhere in this - he only had that one inning against Cincy
  5. formerlybis
  6. formerlybis
    How depressed will you be if the Padres come back and sink your Cubs? I think we probably wouldn't see you post here for 6 months at least.
  7. formerlybis
    Yeah, I think that's basically it (and Torvik's FUN is "fortune unexplained by numbers or failure unexplained by numbers") and is very similar. I'll leave it at that - all models are wrong, but some are useful.
  8. formerlybis
    Since the end of the game on Sunday, I've been mentally preparing myself for the Cubs. I. like probably everyone, have been dreading all those FIBs in the stands for weeks now. But ... serenity now. Bring it on, whoever's next.
  9. formerlybis
    Oh you hit another favorite topic (maybe you knew that, as I do a regular recap of Badger hoops games by the analytics on one of their sites). I won't derail things too much here, only to say that KenPom and others always have a catch-all category called "luck" (or "F.U.N." on Torvik) which captures either randomness or variation that is (currently) unexplained. I think those guys are always searching for more explanatory data (and I would guess upwards of 95% of teams now use some form of PPP as a strategy from high school on up, too, so that's no longer unique). In baseball, especially before the season starts, I just can't fathom how you'd account for something like the acquisitions of Priester and Vaughn, and their subsequent effectiveness beyond their historical performance. I just don't think there *is* data. Maybe you can give some adjuster to the Dodgers and Yankees always being able to bolster themselves, but not MKE.
  10. formerlybis
    If I were the modeler at Fangraphs, I might look into whether the algorithm needs a Brewers/Angels tweak. It’s the consistent over and under that makes you wonder whether there’s a missing variable.
  11. formerlybis
    Thanks for doing all that work. What we don't know is how much pressure was put on those other teams in the last 40 games by their nearest pursuers. The Brewers had very little this year - they didn't *need* to do more. Maybe those previous playoff years they did, IIRC.
  12. formerlybis
    Unfortunately, I am "that guy"...Pedantically, we need 11 wins, not a "magic number" of 11. Everyone knew what you meant, though. Gonna be a long week
  13. formerlybis
    and now the Phillies are exposed…
  14. formerlybis
    Cincy will be scoreboard watching like crazy. The Mets have a magic number of 3 with 3 games left - mathematically, that means Cincy has a magic number of 4 against NYM. But that's not all...Az is still in this, too. Cincy's magic number to beat the Snakes is 3. That won't matter if they can't get the 4 against the Mets. NYM is at MIA, and AZ is at SD this weekend ETA: Wouldn't it be fun to do some AI deep fake highlight videos of the Mets and D-backs games on the scoreboard to rattle the Reds? Or maybe do two highlights and have the crowd guess which one is real.
  15. formerlybis
    I don’t know if I’d use the word luck, but essentially, yes. I would say that the “A-game” of the big money teams is probably > than the Brewers at their best. Also, the “C-games”. We just need to be a letter grade higher than them. It’s doable - we did it all year. Keep pecking!
  16. formerlybis
    No disagreement. For whatever reason, I am able to compartmentalize "regular season" and "postseason" into two different things. Of course I want them to win the World Series and of course it'll be a bummer if they don't make it out of their first series. I'll be grumpy if and when the latter happens. But it really won't have much of a dousing effect on my regular season buoyancy. Playoffs - in every sport - are a crapshoot, and things just happen. I'm a fan of Badger hoops, and it's the same thing. People - maybe most people - judge the season (and their happiness) on how they do in March Madness (again, a crapshoot, good or bad). The 5 month journey to get there is also enjoyable, if less intense. A second round exit doesn't negate a great year for me.
  17. formerlybis
    I'm sad for all the people that feel this way. One bad week shouldn't negate 6 months of joy, but I know for many it will (should it occur).
  18. formerlybis
    I know your tongue was planted in your cheek - we Americans demand a postseason. Most of the European soccer leagues don’t. There are other “knockout” competitions that culminate in a championship game, but the trophy for winning the regular season is extremely coveted. Not here - you get your playoff games at home and that’s it.
  19. formerlybis
    Bond villains put 007 in their death contraption, walk away, and assume he's dead. This is the same kind of overconfidence that some message board posters display when they belittle those who worry until things are clinched. Also, this guy -
  20. formerlybis
    This was my post on 8/28 in the thread about what would make you happy for this season. Gol' darn it. I should've kept that in my thought bubble (as my wife says to her pupils at school - and me - when inappropriate things get blurted). Fully expecting to go into a tizzy now...
  21. formerlybis
    If people are trying to be clever to include the postseason in calculating a magic number, it's confusing, likely wrong, and not even useful. Magic numbers are for figuring out the needed combined wins and losses vs. an opponent when you're not playing head-to-head (which you obviously are in the postseason) to secure a playoff spot or particular seed. A best of 5 series simply needs 3 wins, not a magic number of 3 (you technically would need a magic number of 6, i.e. 3 wins for you and 3 losses for them - but literally no one in the history of mankind would ever think of it that way). The Detroit Red Wings fans use octopi because you used to need 8 wins in the playoffs to win the Stanley Cup (I think you might need 2 octopi now). We want 11 wins after Sunday... not a magic number of 22.
  22. formerlybis
    Stuffing has been ripped from the Cubs
  23. formerlybis
    Not to pile on here, but the only reason the Brewers haven’t clinched is *because* of the tiebreaker. Take another look. MIL 95-60 CHI 88-67 7 games left for both teams
  24. formerlybis
    Can’t dodge us - Brewers are a wrench in their plans! PS - this means we’ve clinched at least the 4-seed and home field to begin the postseason.
  25. formerlybis
    UNO!
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