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formerlybis

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Everything posted by formerlybis

  1. formerlybis
    I see they're saying Crow starts tomorrow - I'd imagine with the bullpen grid being the way it is, Sproat might be on multi-inning relief duty tonight (possibly tomorrow), along with Anderson and Woodford. With the short turnaround to tomorrow's day game, probably want to save the A-list back-end guys. Want to being the operative phrase. Low expectations for run prevention tonight...
  2. formerlybis
    Interesting, as always. It leads me to the question of whether these are sleeping giants (pun intended). Just play a little smarter with small ball tactics - take a few more walks, put the ball in play to result in productive outs rather than always trying for the big inning, etc, - and they'd score more runs. Can't help'em on the run prevention side
  3. formerlybis
    I was looking at SF's lineup and they've got healthy batting averages and a similar (slightly higher) team OPS to the Brewers, but score about a whole run fewer runs per game. I'm no @sveumrulesbut I assume that has something to do with baserunning and productive outs - SF is dead last in SBs - only attempted 21 (15 successful), whereas the Brewers are 60 for 80.
  4. formerlybis
    Whatever source you're pulling this from doesn't seem to count the pitches from when one of these guys opens/starts a piggyback game (noticed this with Patrick, too, when he did this last week) - Drohan threw 68 pitches yesterday. And, is Rob Z not on the roster? I thought they called him up, but I may have misunderstood. In this stretch of no off-days, getting 6 IP from the "real" starters when it's their turn would help out a great deal. Ashby should be ready for action to bridge to the back end (if needed) tonight.
  5. formerlybis
    The bullpen grid should show Patrick with 61 pitches on Wednesday. A little bit concerned with Crow and Sproat going the first two in this one. Will need Hall, Anderson, and Woodford, and CRod to step in and help out. Houston has some offense - they've scored exactly one fewer run than the Crew (though have played 58 games to our 53). They allow a ton of runs, though, which explains their losing record. 7-3 over their last 10, though, including hurling a combined no-hitter earlier this week.
  6. formerlybis
    To the original question, I think the Dodgers are in our fans’ heads - I certainly think it’s true for me. But the rest of the thesis of the author is pretty thin sportstalk bloviation. As a small market team fan in the current configuration of circumstances, expectations should be managed. Once in a great while, a Kansas City sneaks a title (or a Leicester in the EPL), but the smart money is on those with the highest payroll. More bites at the apple is meeting my expectations and probably exceeding them.
  7. formerlybis
    This seems like another one of those games where we’re going to need some innings from the B-list bullpen (Anderson/Hall/Woodford) - the back end is intact, though, so just get through 7 with a legitimate shot (say, a two-run deficit or better). I was looking at the standings and noticed the Brewers have played 4 fewer games than a lot of teams - due to a couple of postponed games, I assume, but that means fewer off-days than others. That will hurt the bullpen in the long run, but being able to bring up reinforcements (and Koenig is going to be a big add if he can make it back up) is imperative.
  8. formerlybis
    I think the points are all good in this thread - I'm especially intrigued by the tension between role and earning potential. Civale complained about being "demoted" from starter to long reliever last year which ended up with him being almost instantly traded for some struggling AAAA first baseman from the White Sox (-: But I understand the complaint - the market favors starters and closers, and then probably one-inning set up guys. It's really useful to have these effective multi-inning guys, but they are not valued the same way. Maybe that will change if the Brewers' Way gets more mainstreamed.
  9. formerlybis
    I didn’t read any recaps this morning, but I assume Vaughn was lifted after his last at bat in order to get a real LF into the game. You can’t play Yelich/Bauers/Vaughn without having a below average LF. Bauers’ flexibility is useful.
  10. formerlybis
    Doofus alert
  11. formerlybis
    This. Mission accomplished of getting through this game with the B-list bullpen. Still want to see a comeback here, of course, but this was what we needed from the pitchers
  12. formerlybis
    Doesn’t look like the problem will come until after 5 (and more likely later than that). Should be fine.
  13. formerlybis
    Today is going to be overcast and windy - not sure of it’ll be blowing in, out, or across, but maybe good practice for Chicago. Supposed to rain later in the afternoon - shouldn’t be a problem unless we get a game going over 3.5 hours. I’m expecting multiple innings from the low leverage bullpen arms today. We’ve set up the rotation with two spot starts this weekend to get ready for Cubs and Dodgers next week, so probably looking to set up the bullpen, too. Feels like they might sacrifice this one for the greater good - unless the offense unexpectedly rises to the occasion.
  14. formerlybis
    Not wanting to really do any of my own research here - could this have been a byproduct of overuse last year?
  15. formerlybis
    Agree, but of course, that's baseball. He allowed 4 hits and 3 walks through 4, then a 1-2-3 in the 5th - also only 47 strikes on 86 pitches. But, he did battle and induced a fair number of pop outs in RISP situations. Good enough, He'll have better days.
  16. formerlybis
    Shenanigans! Their preferred starting pitcher, Wacha, was scratched due to illness. Twill be mighty suspicious if he ends up in one of the games tomorrow…
  17. formerlybis
    I might be totally misremembering this, but didn't the Cubs pitch Horton more innings last season than what "the formula" says (like we kept hearing for Miz)? Disregard if that's not accurate, but if it is, are the chickens coming home to roost with this? Or does that only apply to the season where you exceed the innings? Just curious. Also can happen to anyone at any time, and maybe this is nothing, too.
  18. formerlybis
    Since this is the optimism thread. I'll suggest that the post-lockout world will - somehow - allow teams like the Brewers to be able to afford to sign players like Turang past their current contract. Then again, maybe we don't want that - we've been good at playing the roster management game as it is...
  19. formerlybis
    Possible? Yes. But I think it's more likely that the calculus was that we just need more multi-inning guys in a long series without a healthy Woodruff as one of the starters. Plus, Patrick can play the Mears role, and then go another inning. I do wonder how much rest some of the bullpen arms need between appearances - can Patrick go on consecutive days, for example? It's new to alot of these guys, but you can rest in the offseason.
  20. formerlybis
    I mean, how good a manager do you have to be with 3x the payroll and MVPs/All-Stars up and down the roster? Well, I guess the counter-argument is the Mets....
  21. formerlybis
    Prior to opening game 2, Ashby was arguably the best pitcher on the entire staff over the last two months of the season (with apologies to Uribe). People have micro-recency bias. And I’d think that by now, all the amateur GMs around here would just concede that these guys have a pretty good idea what they’re doing.
  22. formerlybis
    Now THAT was a master class in managing a bullpen/pitching staff. Someone mentioned Myers, and I think if Woodruff isn't ready (which would be surprising if he was), he should be in. I'd think Gasser out.
  23. formerlybis
    This goes back to my point that the players executing matters more. Here's my thoughts about these moves if we didn't know the outcome: -Ashby starting: more likely to work than not; I'll say 67% (and the 33% happened) -Mears: 80% -Miz: easily the most risky; I'd say my thoughts were 25%, but with upside reward (and the 25% hit) -Patrick: 70%, and getting him out after one undramatic inning was ideal. My faith in him is increasing with each outing. -Koenig: 80%, and starting the 8th was fully justified -Megill: 90% - Coming in with a 4-run lead, bases empty and one out was perfect (and a no-brainer). He needed the work, and this was a medium-low leverage situation. If I'm being honest, I don't fully trust he's high-leverage worthy at the moment. -Uribe: 80% - a couple of concerns for not being higher. First, rust - turned out to be unfounded. Second, we had used all the other trusted relievers, so if he did get into trouble, we'd only have Anderson or Gasser to try and salvage it. A 4-run cushion, though, so it is pretty unlikely to get into that much trouble. No way would I have used anyone else there, though. That's obviously unscientific, but if you use my probabilities, the chances of all the positive outcomes that turned out well hitting are .8*.25*.8*.9*,8 = 11.5%. Take out my 25% chance on Miz being successful and it's still 46% (roughly 50-50). The players are the ones who increase the odds
  24. formerlybis
    Someone made the point in the other thread that in hindsight, if you're going to do a bullpen game, it's a better idea to do it when there's an off day the next day. Everyone except probably Miz is available tomorrow (iffy on Ashby, but he could easily come in to close out an inning)
  25. formerlybis
    Execution matters infinitely more than strategy & tactics - not that they're meaningless, but execution flaws can't save sound strategy (e.g., pitching Ashby who's been the best pitcher on the staff over the last two months), and brilliant execution can overcome questionable strategy (e.g., pitching Miz in a postseason tie game). The players deserve the credit for performing way more than the manager does for putting them in those positions. This is the reason I'm pretty zen about all the managerial decisions - up to the players to execute.
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