NBBrewFan
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Everything posted by NBBrewFan
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This is a forum to discuss the 2022 Milwaukee Brewers, isn't it? From everything I see in the branding, that seems to be the case, but by some of the posts I'd have to wonder if I'm looking at the same team as others.
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Yes, most of what you described is the "Coors effect" I noted. I was pointing out that some (but not a majority) of that difference might also be attributable to the fact that they have a higher percentage of games played at away stadiums that are pitcher friendly. Depending on the study all 3 away parks for the Rockies in the NL West (SF, SD, LA) are in the bottom half or bottom third for "hitter-friendly" measurements. I believe most of those Coors effect studies were done before implementation of the Humidor (although that only slightly adjusts for the altitude and other issues underlying the effect). Last season 10 teams had added the Humidor to their home parks so there must be enough data that teams think it will assist with their current team makeup.
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It's true that their is a Coors effect, but it should also be noted that SF, SD and I believe LA are all pitcher friendly parks. So with the current skewed schedule of division games some of that home/road differential is going from an extreme hitter friendly environment to multiple pitcher friendly parks. It would be nice to see what his breakdown is for west vs. non-west parks. I agree that I think he'll hit fine in Fenway to justify that contract, plus his defense is elite so he always has that to fall back on. I would move Bogaerts, but that's going to be a hard decision.
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Come back when the Brewer have won 2 Championships and we can compare futility, until then going 0 for the playoffs is nothing.
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Well they can do whatever they want, but sometimes that costs them lots of money (see City of St. Louis v. NFL). I think they are limited with what they can do to the player, but they may want to have a discussion with the Haslem's. I wonder if the Browns even have a PR person because helping a serial sexual assailant from losing money because of those activities is a REALLY bad look.
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Personally I wouldn't mind if the other team is "lucky" by outperforming a Brewer team that is playing to it's potential (or better) like 2018. What just poops the bed is when the Brewers show up like a softball team that hit the bar the night before, and the night before, and the night before a big game and plays like utter crap (see 2021 Brewers and 2022 Packers). Maybe it's just PTSD from the Packers year after year getting beat in the playoffs mostly by teams with lesser talent that makes me more sensitive to the Crew laying an egg. Doesn't seem like luck or randomness at this point.
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I'm not as positive on MVS as you are and think he's a fine #2 when you have an elite #1 (Adams). I can see they might need to placate Aaron and add MVS as another buddy (let's face it Cobb coming back is probably part of the placate Aaron). I think the Packers would be much better served by picking up 2 #2 WR to go with Lazard, Cobb and Amari R plus 2 Rookies. That would be a likely upgrade to the overall WR room talent, but spread out better. I'm not sure Gute has enough rabbits in his hat to pull that off and we are likely to see a trade/FA #2 picked up with MVS on a 1 year "prove it" deal.
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You left out Willy Adames, but I'm sure that's just an oversight and not because it doesn't support your argument.
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With Harrison DFAd does that make the "players with holes in their swing" who fixed their swing still 0.0001%?
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My first thought was "what! We couldn't match that or better it", but after sitting down I thought it's likely the Yankees were high on Lange and wanted him in 2020, but the Padres pulled the trigger first. Or the Brewers aren't as high on him as the Fanatics. Probably will never know for sure.
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It only takes one team and it was the Rangers who gave Corey Seager the 10year/$325M contract. Correa wants more than that (hello Davante 2), so a lot of teams are backing away as that's a lot of money. The Dodgers just picked up one of the better FA options out there for HALF that amount. Based on $8M per WAR that means Seager/Correa would need to put up 40 WAR over the lifetime of the contract or 8 years of 5 WAR. Most teams that are smart understand that's a lot of risk. -
I wonder if they want to see what other WR get the June 1 designation and see if there's a better option for getting a DA replacement before going back to MVS and if they want to see how the draft shakes out. Not sure MVS would wait until after the draft to sign somewhere. I still think the Packers want him back, but I think the other options will determine if they want to go for a 1 year/option type of deal or a multi-year with MVS. They also might be willing to go longer with him with less guaranteed money.
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I don't want to minimize Keston's difficulties, but I will take exception to your second point. He hasn't changed the % of balls in and out of the strike zone. His Z-Swing, O-Sing and Swing % are all pretty consistent from 2019 to 2021. The eye test is that he was missing so many balls IN the strike zone and that is born out by his Z-contact% (76.6% to 61.3%) and overall contact% (65.8% to 54.5%). Those are huge changes. Is there anything else we can learn from the numbers? From his field numbers of Cent%=40.4 in 2019 to 29.3% in 2021 with both pull% and opp% going up. He has a major timing issue (your very accurate #1). Batted ball/Hard/Med/Soft are consistent with a timing issue, especially with no real change in out/in strike zone. I don't have access to pitch type/field numbers but he could be ahead of offspead and late on fastballs. There might be some individual pitch numbers that might indicate part of the strike zone (like he's missing high fastballs most of the time). Either way he is having a massive issue making contact inside the strike zone compared to his rookie year. While that isn't a simple issue I believe it's the main reason he has cratered the last 2 years. I think the league knows you just need to throw him strikes (high strikes?) and Keston will do the rest.
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That's a really good return for a player who didn't want to be here. Turn that $20M into Landry or a trade for a top 10 receiver and they are only slightly worse off in the WR room, but now have 2 top 53 picks to boot.
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I don't think it's Adams contract that would be the main reason they can't do "anything in the future".
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I don't see it in the "Next Tues" section, but I have a message that "Free MLB.TV is on deck". The WTMJ feed should be available from the website wtmj.com under the "listen live" button even for out of area people.
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MLB toying with rule changes to end boredom
NBBrewFan replied to PinaMadness's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I really think the double-hook makes too much sense for MLB to implement it at the major league level. I hate the 3 pitcher minimum crap. I've come to accept that the DH will eventually/has come, but as an old guy I just am disgusted at all this crappy tampering with the game to speed it up when none of them address the issue. Bigger bases? really!? why not just turn the 15 inch base 45 degrees? How about a base that moves towards home plate if a pitcher throws over too often. Just stop with the silly crap. I'm not so set in my ways that I would be fine with them altering the ball or moving back the mound to balance offense/pitching, but this other stuff just makes no sense, hence mlb will double down. -
I guess when you have a QB on his rookie deal you have a lot of cap room to make these kind of deals.
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Does McCutchen's bat have a chance to rebound?
NBBrewFan replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
If his Miller Park/AmFam Field numbers are a true indication of what a full/half season hitting their would look like then I could see a very nice uptick in his recent numbers. -
Matt Chapman to Blue Jays for a bunch of prospects. Chapman to Toronto
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And another example why we are lucky to have the tag team champions of the world on our side: Baron Von Attanasio and David "the budget Crusher" Stearns. (So I'm dating myself, not like romantically, but like age) Edit: that's the best I could come up with the Mama's and the Papa's Turn, Turn, Turn is playing in my head, but with Churn, Churn, Churn to describe the Reds moves so far.
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From SI it sounds like it was a cap issue as the Packers are looking for a cheaper alternative. I thought he was a bright spot on the Special Teams, but considering the Packers 2021 ST was likely worse than all the CFL teams plus about 50% of the Division I NCAA teams it was probably just a relative impression.
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ZSmith signs with Ravens. 4yrs/$35-50M depending on incentives. Way too expensive for the Packers for the risk.
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Phillies being the Phillies, throw a bunch of money at a Free Agent just to come in 3rd. Freeman to the Red Sox or Dodgers? Any other big money options? Maybe the Padres so they can watch Hosmer be replacement level as a DH? Voit would be a perfect fit at the right price, but don't know which of our prospects would tempt the Yankees that we would be OK trading.
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Yep. "All in" could mean $5 or $5M. They really should call it going for broke.
