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MadScientist

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Everything posted by MadScientist

  1. MadScientist
    I wonder if the Brewers a decade ago were hurt by the free agent compensation model. It seems like they were mostly content to keep decent (but not great) players until they were free agents and just pick up a few extra draft picks that didn't pan out. Jenkins, Clark, Davis, and possibly Helms could have been traded during or after the 2005 season, and Ohka could have been traded after. I will admit that it would have been tough to sell it at the time. We would have thought of the Brewer's a AAA team for big market teams.
  2. MadScientist
    I'm not sure I remember people questioning the original Lucroy deal. As for the new deal, Lucroy is almost certainly looking for close to market value, no reason he shouldn't. By not signing him to an extension, the Brewers are maximizing the return potential.
  3. MadScientist
    I'm not sure I'd call those predictions 'fun'. Unless I'm misreading something, they are pretty much predicting that the Brewers will have the worst starting staff in the majors. I didn't check every team, but they had the Brewers worse than everyone I did check, including the Reds, Phillies and even the Rockies. Maybe they think the Brewers are fielding a AAA team and therefore are playing in Sky Sox stadium.
  4. MadScientist
    Interesting article. It really didn't directly address one main question I had (how much does a changeup rely on its spin?), but it did show the impact at Coors. Change-ups have an average Coors effect increase on BA, but a much larger increase on SLG. So its the slider pitchers that will do the best in Colorado. I actually don't mind our pitchers developing there. I think it makes them focus harder and be tighter with their control and repeatability. Hitters, on the other hand, have it too "easy" there. Its got to be difficult to adjust to the movement of pitches after leaving that environment. Based on the physics of baseball, a change-up will be less affected than most other pitches, although any tailing motion will be reduced. However since fastballs will 'rise' less and curves will drop less, both pitches will be closer in ending position to the change. The result is fewer swing and misses, and more centered up balls.
  5. MadScientist
    I was going to post some speculations, but Baseball Prospectus did a detailed analysis: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20069 I think the conclusion is that the best bet for pitchers is to pitch in another park.
  6. MadScientist
    Miller Park does have that short porch due to the picnic area in RF. But home runs to RF were greater this year than last, but much less in LF this year than last. Possibly a Fenway and Yankee vs Wrigley and Great America difference, but looking at the splits on that graph, it seems RH batters were pulling the ball more last year than this.
  7. MadScientist
    that home run rate drop has to be because of park dimensions... which after going to fangraphs you can see the comparison from 2014 hits that were homers to 2015 hits that were outs instead of homers the year before. http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=1118&position=P&type=battedball&pid2=1118&ss1=2014&se1=2014&ss2=2015&se2=2015&cht1=hittype&cht2=hittype&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL What is really telling in that graph is that both home runs and doubles to left are down by quite a bit this year, but the same or higher to right. Either there is a significant asymmetry in the parks he plays in or he has done something to make him more effective against righties.
  8. MadScientist
    You can have all the geniuses you want on the payroll, but can they compete with the team 90 miles to the south that has both the geniuses and the revenue? My guess is Milwaukee is a stepping stone job in their minds. Let's hope it is (for everyone other than Stearns), because the only way this job is a stepping stone is if the Brewers become a good organization from top to bottom. TB had a long run competing against baseball's biggest spenders, and Houston looks like a contender for a number of years. Front office guys in floundering organizations don't get poached.
  9. MadScientist
    Ash going was pretty much a given, the new guy is going to want to pick his assistant. Martens is an interesting change since it is on the business side not player development side. I wonder facilities issues, particularly at AAA were a factor.
  10. MadScientist
    Agree on banning the barrel roll. Save barrel rolling for the 7th inning stretch. As for the player on the ground, you could still make it a non-reviewable judgment call with better the guidelines. Since the umpire should be looking at the bag, he should be able to see if the runner is down. I don't think there will be too many close calls on this, since sliding too late is a significant injury risk to the runner. But I'd be fine with the direct to the bag slide rule. Players should be used to this before reaching pro ball and it doesn't hurt the game. Baseball is not a collision sport.
  11. MadScientist
    That is a big part of the problem. There isn't a clear definition for the judgement. Having criteria written that will say what gets called, and setting the criteria for reasonable player safety will help. The current unwritten judgement rules are not good enough. I agree this is the problem but I'm worried about how they fix it. The home plate collision rule is still not well understood by umpires and ruled inconsistently even with replay. I can see this turning into the NFL catch rule where there are countless scenarios for when something is a completed catch or not. NFL catches, home plate collisions, and takeout slides either are or aren't. You know it when you see it happen, there shouldn't be confusing criteria for these situations. Either you can basically eliminate the take-out play by saying the runner has to slide directly at the bag (like HS and college), or if you want to leave the play in but really reduce the injury chance, make the rule something like butt on the ground before the runner's feet reach second. Utley could have done that and still disrupted the throw without breaking Tejada's leg.
  12. MadScientist
    Reid Nichols out. Gordon Ash and Scott Martens offered different positions.
  13. MadScientist
    That is a big part of the problem. There isn't a clear definition for the judgement. Having criteria written that will say what gets called, and setting the criteria for reasonable player safety will help. The current unwritten judgement rules are not good enough.
  14. MadScientist
    I would suggest a clarification on what is a legal vs illegal slide. Specifically when sliding into second feet first, the player's butt must be on the ground before his feet reach second. When sliding hands first, the chest must be on the ground before the hands reach second. If the runner contacts the fielder without doing so, or without touching second, it constitutes interference. Any barrel-roll slide that contacts the fielder is interference. This wouldn't eliminate contact, or breaking up the double-play, but would eliminate needlessly dangerous 'slides' and make it clear what is and isn't allowed.
  15. MadScientist
    Pollution is still a concern with Mexico City. They are improving, but it is still pretty high.
  16. MadScientist
    Fully agree. He needs to get right, and the minute he came to the realization is the minute it should start. This is much bigger than baseball. Honestly, while it may be a shock to his teammates, given how he pitched this year he's not hurting them by going into rehab. Hopefully CC gets better, and if any other players have a problem, my CC's example push them to get the help they need.
  17. MadScientist
    I've mentioned this before and it pretty much fell on deaf ears. At this point, how could anyone not want the Brewers to lose as much as possible? Is it really going to make you feel better if the Brewers finish with 75 wins instead of 68? I'd much rather have the money for the draft next year than have a couple of meaningless wins. It will help the Brewers to lose and improve their draft position. It will also help if the players do well (young guys developing, old guys improving trade stock). It is hard to do both, but it would be great if they could manage it.
  18. MadScientist
    Best thing for him. Having two newborns in the house should really help him appreciate baseball
  19. MadScientist
    Either Counsell is pushing the Brewers luck against Pittsburgh, or he just told Nelson to go throw a No-No.
  20. MadScientist
    I have a feeling Houston fans are thinking the same thing. They got two major league players under team control for more than a year. One is a bona fide all star while the throw in of the deal has been nothing short of spectacular for them. Which means a hopefully fair trade. Good MLB players for talented MiLB players. Houston may wish they had Santana or Phillips back when Gomez is gone after next year, but that's the nature of baseball. It will still take a few years to know how well the Brewers actually did, but I'm hopeful that we won't be looking back and saying the Brewers got fleeced. Fiers wasn't exactly the throw-in. From the talk of how the trade went down it was basically Fiers for Phillips, and Santana + the pitchers for Gomez.
  21. MadScientist
    The Yankees must think they are the Cardinals. Yelling at himself when he missed a pitch, when he's been mired in a slump since the trade is not showing up a pitcher. I hope he gets 2 HR's today and Houston wins 25-0.
  22. MadScientist
    Without the mercy rule you'd have final scores of 54-2 and 45-0 sometimes Yea the mercy rule is much needed at this level. It sucks being on (or watching your son on) a team that is getting blown out, and ending the game just ends the humiliation. Even on the winning side it really isn't that much fun to continue. I'd bet the only reason it isn't part of pro ball is so the vendors can sell more, and TV can still change for ads, even if nobody is watching anymore.
  23. MadScientist
    But you can't take away the end of game component, as the rules specifically include it. That's true. But it does seem odd that the end of innings 1-8 differ from inning 9+. You would think there would be some consistency. To me, if you obtain the 3rd out of an inning via a force, no runs score. Except by conceding the play and having a non-player touch the ball make it a situation where it is not a force. At that point the only thing that could be done is an appeal play, which which would only matter if the batter did not touch first. Still if I were the D-backs manager I'd read the team the story of Merkle and make sure they always touch the next base, just so there is never a question.
  24. MadScientist
    I'm not sure Davies is just a #5. He might not have ace stuff, but he knows how to pitch. The comparison has been Fiers, who may have had #5 stuff, but his numbers have for the most part been #3 or better. Also A-ball guy who profiles as a #3 has a pretty high chance of being nothing. The only A-ball guys worth trading for are the really top prospect types that aren't going to be had for a two months of Parra.
  25. MadScientist
    Hard decision of bullpen vs DFA for Lohse? Or maybe the decision to bring Peralta back asap or wait until after August 1st to dump Lohse? With Garza looking a little better and Peralta coming back, the rotation (without Lohse) should be decent the rest of the way.
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