Brewcrew82
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Everything posted by Brewcrew82
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Their lineup is pretty legit as Nootbar I think is due for a big breakout (just look at his Statcast page). Then, you have O'Neil who is due for positive regression, though I doubt he's the MVP candidate he showed in 2021. And Contreras is a HUGE upgrade offensively over Yadi. Walker could easily be a ROY candidate. Those players will help cancel out some of the likely negative regression from Goldschmidt and Arenado. But their starting pitching is absolutely atrocious. Verlander is high...
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The Cardinals rotation is not good at all. They are the worst in the league at missing bats, and feature 35-40 year olds and injury prone guys galore. For as much of an advantage they have at the plate, we basically make that up with our starting pitching. Which makes me think that the season will come down to how well our bullpen comes together before Devin. There is also virtually zero chance that Arenado and Goldschmidt, in their early to mid 30s, both have career seasons again.
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True the Cardinals have a really good every day lineup, but you should take a look at what they're going to try to throw out there for the rotation.
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I don't get that, respectfully. 2021 had a lot more questions. Burnes and Woodruff weren't yet established aces. Peralta had yet to have sustained success in the rotation. Lauer was atrocious during the pandemic season and mediocre in San Diego (Also, didn't even end up making the OD rotation). Houser was coming off a negative WAR, 5.30 ERA season. Brett Anderson was persistently on the IL. And the depth options weren't too promising, with a mid-30s Josh Lindblom constantly sucking and Aaron Ashby largely an unknown after a canceled minor league season. We all know how the starting pitching ended up performing... Fast forward a mere two years, and you have 2 established aces, a potential (if healthy) third ace in Peralta, and rock-steady 4/5 starters in Lauer and Miley, with Houser ready to fill in as a capable 6th starter. Of course, a healthy Ashby would be great and erase even more doubt, but compared to 2021, 2020, etc., there's a lot less to be concerned about imo. It's a consensus top rotation in baseball, and one that 20 other teams would easily trade places with.
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- wade miley
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Article: Does MLB Need a Salary Cap?
Brewcrew82 replied to Matthew Trueblood's topic in Brewer Fanatic Front Page News
One word should suffice here: YES. Turn MLB into NFL/NBA. -
As @wiguy94points out, you're completely misreading the optics here. Vast majority of the baseball community, including Brewers fans, have sided with Burnes over the team. You're right that we'd probably get a bigger return at the deadline. But I don't think it'd be significantly lower, particularly if Burnes performs closer to 2021 and/or wins another Cy Young in the process. MAYBE we could make the playoffs without Burnes, but that would require A LOT to go right (Peralta staying healthy and pitching 160-170+ innings, Ashby overcoming the shoulder injury to return in May and pitching significantly better than 2022 as a starter, Lauer repeating his 2021-2022 numbers despite underwhelming peripherals, Miley staying healthy, Houser repeating his 2021 numbers in a swingman role, Gasser adjusting quickly to MLB and performing at an above average level, etc.). Not to mention the bullpen, which is unproven, and the offense, which lacks a true superstar, would probably have to take a step up. But World Series contenders? I don't see it. To consider trading Burnes at the deadline, unless we're out of the playoff race entirely, I would have to see one of: Jordan Walker, Andrew Painter, Grayson Rodriguez, Marcelo Meyer, Jackson Holiday, Bobby Miller, Ricky Tiedemann, Jackson Merrill, etc.
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I respect that you have that opinion. But with how strong the NL currently is, I don’t see any way to subtract Burnes from this team and still be a legitimate postseason contender, let a title contender. Corbin is that good and that valuable. Nor do I see the FO taking on the PR nightmare that would ensue, which would be the Hader fallout x100.
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Whooo boy. I really hope the FO has learned its lesson about subtracting all-star players from 1st place/contending teams at the trade deadline. Sensible in theory, but, in practice, not as easily workable....Not to mention trading Burnes, aka our best player, takes things to a whole new level than trading a slumping reliever. You don't trade a player like Burnes mid-season and still harbor realistic expectations of contending for the playoffs, let alone a title. Not in this NL. A trade is forthcoming, no doubt. But it should only come at the trade deadline if we have fallen out of contention; otherwise, this offseason should be the time.
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Would be nice if Frelick was still in camp as it might give us a bigger clue as to what they plan to do with him, Perkins, and Naquin. The fact that Perkins has largely been coming on as a sub tells me he's currently ticketed for AAA. Meanwhile, Naquin is nursing an injury (set to return Tuesday, apparently) and not on the 40-man, while Frelick is also not on the 40-man. I would prefer going with Frelick right away, but would be far from surprised if they went with Naquin for a couple weeks or so.
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It's worth noting that Urias hasn't played a single inning at 3B this spring. I'm sure he will end up playing some innings there this season, but it doesn't look like they plan on starting him there. Also, Yelich is leading off every time he's in the lineup. So, I don't think we'll be seeing Mitchell supplant him there.
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Honestly, aces are harder to come by these days than high-level shortstops. So, if we’re going to extend anybody, it should really be Woodruff. Something along the lines of Zack Wheeler and Luis Castillo, who were of similar age to Woodruff when they signed their deals, would be great for the Brewers. Would allow us to extend our starting pitching dominance as our young position player talent (Chourio, Frelick, Wiemer, Mitchell, Turang, etc.) comes of age. Also would help compensate for our current lack of high-ceiling pitching prospects in the upper minors. Adames is just too dangerous to extend imo due to the questions surrounding his contact ability and plate discipline, as well as the huge price spike in the SS market this winter. Once his defense starts to decline, which it likely will within the first couple years or so of an extension, his overall value will drop significantly and we could end up with a situation even worse than Yelich.
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I was talking about the Super 2 deadline. That’s more than just a couple weeks. And the sole purpose would indeed be to save Mark $. I agree the extra year of control is important for a small market team like the Brewers. That doesn’t mean it’s not frustrating that the Cardinals have the ability to install their top prospects in the OD lineup to maximize the team’s ability to win games while we have to keep ours down. Especially after last season when we missed the playoffs by a single game. If we’re going to go for one more run with Corbin, Woody, and Willy, then we should be all in with our best players.
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Watch the Cardinals go with Walker as their OD starting RF, while we keep Frelick and Wiemer down until June so we can not only get that extra year of control, but also save Mark $ in a few years.
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Frelick and Naquin aren’t comparable in terms of their ability to play CF. Naquin is legitimately bad in RF and even worse in CF. Frelick, meanwhile, is rated by prospect outlets as above average, with FanGraphs being a clear outlier. He’s not quite at the ability of Mitchell, but he‘s more than capable of playing there at this point.
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I think he earned a spot on the OD roster with his performance in AAA last year. But I suspect the FO is going to keep him down to gain the extra year of service time, which would be a mistake imo. As for the Kwan comparison, it’s worth noting that while Kwan may hit the ball in the air more, Frelick is faster and hits it with more authority. Keith Law brought up Alex Bregman as a comparison with regard to Frelick’s small stature and power potential. I think that would represent the best outcome for the Brewers, and one I could easily happening with Am Fam’s short porch in right. Not 30 HR power, but maybe a season or two over 20.
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It’s really hard to say that when this team has consistently outperformed its run differential and xW/L throughout Counsell’s tenure. He’s considered within the industry to be one of the very best managers in baseball, and any team with a vacancy would be all over him. It would be a huge mistake for this franchise to let him go, so long as he wants to stay here.
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Lol. No I'm not Jake. I just want to win as many games as possible this season and believe that rostering Jake over Wilson starting on OD would help with that. As far as Wilson being no less promising than Lauer, I strongly disagree: Lauer (2018-2019 w/ SD): 4.40 ERA/108 ERA-/103 FIP-/3.1 fWAR Wilson (2021-2022 w/ PIT&ATL): 5.47 ERA/131 ERA-/127.5 FIP/0 fWAR Lauer was still a strong back-end starter w/ SD, while Wilson has been objectively terrible by every measure since 2021. And, as Brock highlighted, there's nothing in his profile to suggest that he'll drastically improve on those numbers.
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Yeah. I just don't see it with Wilson. Unlike some of our other reclamation projects, there's not much to work with here imo. Would be a shame if they felt compelled to keep him on the roster over a guy such as Cousins.
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That's why I said, "until last year". Ottavino's BB%'s from 2017-2021: 16%, 11.7%, 14.1%, 10.6%, 13%. And Ottavino was still a really good pitcher most of those years...Cousins has walk issues, yes, but they're not that dissimilar from Ottavino's before last year. And his peripherals are very solid. "Their success against him was largely on the back of a .392 BABIP." Well, Ottavino also has a career .796 OPS against LHH, nearly 200 points higher than against RHH..... More diverse arsenal than Cousins? I suppose, though that doesn't change the fact that they're both heavy slider/sinker pitchers... Far from a pointless comparison. Fact of the matter is that Cousins has been one of our best relievers over the past two seasons when healthy. Stashing him in AAA for the sake of keeping Bryse Wilson on the roster would be silly.
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Counterpoint: Adam Ottavino, who Cousins has a similar arsenal to in terms of relying almost exclusively on a mid 90s two-seamer and a sharp, biting slider, put up the following splits last season: .301/.358/.479/.837 vs. RHP; .160/.226/.253/.479 So, like Cousins, Ottavino also has sharp splits largely due to his reliance on his slider. Yet, Ottavino was one of the best relievers in the majors last year as the set-up man for Edwin Diaz (and has been really good before then). Yes, you probably don't want to use him in situations with multiple lefties up and he could stand to improve his control (which is quite similar to Ottavino before last year fwiw), but Cousins has proven himself to be a capable high-leverage arm with the ability to rack-up K's in droves. A tandem with Strzelecki and Cousins in the 6th/7th innings could be lethal. I have no idea why the Brewers would want to stash him in AAA in favor of Bryse Wilson.
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I think Cousins and Strzelecki are definitely same tier, meaning guys who are right after Devin and Bush in the bullpen pecking order due to their combination of results and strikeout ability. Strzelecki has better control, as you say, but Cousins also has superior strikeout ability. Their peripherals are very similar as well. Again, we're talking about a guy who has already proven himself at the major league level (in some high leverage spots no less) and who has been probably our 4th best reliever since 2021 (after Hader, Devin, and Boxberger). I see tremendous downside in trying to be cute and stash him in AAA just so you can keep a guy like Bryse Wilson and his 5.54 ERA. I do think there's a possibility that the Brewers will adopt your perspective, but that would be a real mistake imo.
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There's also a fine line to walk here. A case could certainly be made that stashing Cousins in AAA just so you can keep a guy like Bryse Wilson and his career 5.54 ERA (232 innings) crosses that line. Games in April are every bit as important as games in August or September. Last year was a good teacher in that sense.
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It's so sad that I can think of at least 5 games we had no business losing last year off the top of my head.
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Devin walked almost as much, but, like Cousins, is able to overcome it due to his strikeout ability. Cousins’ peripherals were strong too, with a 3.19 FIP and 3.24 xERA. I don’t understand having Strzelecki as a lock or not even having Cousins as part of the competition with Payamps, Guerra, or Varland.
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Cousins is hurt by the fact that he has options remaining, but when healthy, he's probably been our 3rd/4th best reliever over the past two seasons. He also has high-leverage experience. Varland has a lot more to prove, as we would have to play the rule 5 game with him the entire season.
