Brewcrew82
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Everything posted by Brewcrew82
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11% is still 11%. Doesn't happen 9 times out of 10... They've been a bad team right from opening day. They have some good hitters, obviously, but there is absolutely nothing in their run-prevention profile to suggest that a run is probable at this point.
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Brewers played really good baseball in March/April when they were actually healthy. Injuries and underperformance have definitely caught up with us since, but we still have an 8.5 game advantage and are finally getting some guys back while Corbin Burnes is beginning to pitch like Corbin Burnes and Yelich is looking more like Yelich, etc. 8.5 games and below 3 teams is a lot, even in June. Why they currently have an 11% chance of making the playoffs. It's also worth remembering that they have less games against the NL Central to make up that deficit this year... I'm not counting the Cardinals out by any stretch. I'm just not that worried about them right now because they've been a bad team from opening day.
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Okay. But 11% is still 11%. Doesn't happen 9 times out of 10....What happened in 2011 is irrelevant.
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Right. Which is why you can't count them out completely. But that's still 8.5 games and three teams separating them and the Brewers. Cardinals need to actually start playing good baseball at some point and for a lengthy stretch. They haven't shown any signs of being able to do that thus far.
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At the same time, the 2011 team was never below .500 after mid-April. The current team is 14 games below .500 with a negative run differential in the double digits. Different years, different teams, different threats.
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Except no one here is writing off the Cardinals. We're just saying that it's highly improbable at this point, and that there are bigger worries.
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Context is key my friend. In baseball as in life. Can we count the Cardinals out completely? No. Should we be worried about them right now? Also, no.
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They also have to jump a lot more teams now than they did then due to their position in the standings...And they're currently 14 games below .500. The 2011 team never crept below .500 after mid-April. That Cardinals team was solid for most of the season and got insanely hot at the end. This Cardinals team isn't good and has shown no signs that they're going to have the sort of hot stretch they need to propel themselves into playoff contention. Can we count them out? no Should we be worried about them right now? Also, no.
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Those Cardinals weren't in nearly as bad a position in the standings or pitching/defense-wise as the current iteration...
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Yikes. Would be fun if we decided to win some games instead of losing 6 straight.
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Free Clayton Andrews/Abner Uribe!
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Another shot. Not saying to give him a long leash. We've got Singleton playing right now.
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If he's hitting homers now, you gotta give him another shot as opposed to just DFAing him when he comes off the IL.
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If we can get the rotation back in line with expectations as the season goes on, then I think we've got the Central division pretty well solidified.
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Absolutely devastating for the Rangers and DeGrom’s HOF case. I would say the Mets knew what they were doing, but then they went ahead and signed a 40 year old Justin Verlander…
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"Extreme homerism" First of all, this is a Brewers fan site. That stuff does tend to appear from time to time. Second of all, how is simply pointing out the models viewing the Brewers as division favorites extreme homerism? That's as neutral and objective as it gets... Finally, what's also not objective is saying the Cardinals' rotation is underperforming close to the extent the Brewers is, as Wiguy has pointed out to you. That's once again just pro-Cardinals spin.
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They actually have a good shot at making a deep run with how the bracket is lined up. Could potentially be the first US men's team to ever make a final at a World Cup. Didn't concede a single goal in the group stage. And they ran roughshod over CONCACAF last summer.
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Yeah. I don't see how anyone could reasonably draw the conclusion that the Cardinals are better positioned with their SP right now. The evidence just isn't there. ERA isn't a great stat, but despite everything going wrong in their rotation the Brewers are currently 10th in the majors and the Cardinals are 23rd. I think that pretty well encapsulates things. And the upside for the Brewers with Burnes, Peralta, and eventually Woodruff is so much higher. Brewers right now are tentative favorites followed fairly closely by the Cardinals/Cubs, and behind them the Pirates and Reds. A mediocre division for sure. Still the Brewers can't continue their May play and expect to win the division. Thankfully, due to the extent of injuries and underperformance combined with their current position, there's good reason to think that they won't.
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And I take that into account too when I see you swiftly dismiss ERA-, WPA, etc. All the while spinning everything in favor of the Cardinals and against the Brewers despite the Brewers currently being the consensus division favorites by the models. I may not have your quantity of years, but I've lived and died with the Brewers all the same. FWIW, like Wiguy I don't actually question whether you're a Brewers fan....It's just very unusual the lengths you'll go to defend the Cardinals and attack the Brewers sometimes.
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Lol. No one is saying the Cardinals are dead. Just that they're not the favorites to win the division at this point and that the Brewers, for all their flaws, are. Which is backed up by the projections. (I don't think anyone is willing to consider the Brewers a shoe-in by any stretch). As Wiguy points out, the Cardinals have factually had less injuries than the Brewers and an easier schedule to this point. Their offense is performing right in line with expectations and yet they've still been mediocre to bad and are 7 games behind the Brewers in the loss column. You consistently going out of your way to qualify these simple facts and twist them in favor of the Cardinals is what's getting others to wonder/joke about your leanings.
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Hitting/underperformance and injuries.... Cardinals have been hitting really well and yet are still barely over .500 on the month due to their SP.
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I'm a Brewers homer, obviously, but I'm not sure if I see it from them unless they pull one of those 17 game winning streaks out of their hats. Thing that's preventing them from stringing wins together, though, is that one of their SPs is having a blowup start every couple games or so. Not that I think the Brewers are sure bets to clear 90 wins or anything...I'm honestly just as concerned by the Cubs as I am the Cardinals at this point.
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They're known for that.
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How is the Cards' SP going to improve, though?? Especially when this is shaping up to be one of the weakest deadlines for starting pitching in recent memory... Brewers are experiencing severe underperformance and injuries across their roster and yet are still clear of the Cardinals by 7 games in the loss column. If the Brewers can get healthy (Urias, Woodruff, Frelick, etc.) and get the positive regression they're seemingly due for (Burnes, Peralta, Adames, Taylor, etc.), I think you have to look at them as the favorites to win this weak division.
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They actually have the funds remaining for the scoreboard, which needs to be replaced every 10 years like your TV. They don’t for the roof since the 5 county sales tax expired. Hence, why they’re asking the govt, which is the lessor, for the necessary funds.
