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Brewcrew82

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Everything posted by Brewcrew82

  1. Brewcrew82
    As @wiguy94points out, you're completely misreading the optics here. Vast majority of the baseball community, including Brewers fans, have sided with Burnes over the team. You're right that we'd probably get a bigger return at the deadline. But I don't think it'd be significantly lower, particularly if Burnes performs closer to 2021 and/or wins another Cy Young in the process. MAYBE we could make the playoffs without Burnes, but that would require A LOT to go right (Peralta staying healthy and pitching 160-170+ innings, Ashby overcoming the shoulder injury to return in May and pitching significantly better than 2022 as a starter, Lauer repeating his 2021-2022 numbers despite underwhelming peripherals, Miley staying healthy, Houser repeating his 2021 numbers in a swingman role, Gasser adjusting quickly to MLB and performing at an above average level, etc.). Not to mention the bullpen, which is unproven, and the offense, which lacks a true superstar, would probably have to take a step up. But World Series contenders? I don't see it. To consider trading Burnes at the deadline, unless we're out of the playoff race entirely, I would have to see one of: Jordan Walker, Andrew Painter, Grayson Rodriguez, Marcelo Meyer, Jackson Holiday, Bobby Miller, Ricky Tiedemann, Jackson Merrill, etc.
  2. Brewcrew82
    I respect that you have that opinion. But with how strong the NL currently is, I don’t see any way to subtract Burnes from this team and still be a legitimate postseason contender, let a title contender. Corbin is that good and that valuable. Nor do I see the FO taking on the PR nightmare that would ensue, which would be the Hader fallout x100.
  3. Brewcrew82
    Whooo boy. I really hope the FO has learned its lesson about subtracting all-star players from 1st place/contending teams at the trade deadline. Sensible in theory, but, in practice, not as easily workable....Not to mention trading Burnes, aka our best player, takes things to a whole new level than trading a slumping reliever. You don't trade a player like Burnes mid-season and still harbor realistic expectations of contending for the playoffs, let alone a title. Not in this NL. A trade is forthcoming, no doubt. But it should only come at the trade deadline if we have fallen out of contention; otherwise, this offseason should be the time.
  4. Brewcrew82
    Would be nice if Frelick was still in camp as it might give us a bigger clue as to what they plan to do with him, Perkins, and Naquin. The fact that Perkins has largely been coming on as a sub tells me he's currently ticketed for AAA. Meanwhile, Naquin is nursing an injury (set to return Tuesday, apparently) and not on the 40-man, while Frelick is also not on the 40-man. I would prefer going with Frelick right away, but would be far from surprised if they went with Naquin for a couple weeks or so.
  5. Brewcrew82
    It's worth noting that Urias hasn't played a single inning at 3B this spring. I'm sure he will end up playing some innings there this season, but it doesn't look like they plan on starting him there. Also, Yelich is leading off every time he's in the lineup. So, I don't think we'll be seeing Mitchell supplant him there.
  6. Brewcrew82
    Honestly, aces are harder to come by these days than high-level shortstops. So, if we’re going to extend anybody, it should really be Woodruff. Something along the lines of Zack Wheeler and Luis Castillo, who were of similar age to Woodruff when they signed their deals, would be great for the Brewers. Would allow us to extend our starting pitching dominance as our young position player talent (Chourio, Frelick, Wiemer, Mitchell, Turang, etc.) comes of age. Also would help compensate for our current lack of high-ceiling pitching prospects in the upper minors. Adames is just too dangerous to extend imo due to the questions surrounding his contact ability and plate discipline, as well as the huge price spike in the SS market this winter. Once his defense starts to decline, which it likely will within the first couple years or so of an extension, his overall value will drop significantly and we could end up with a situation even worse than Yelich.
  7. Brewcrew82
    I was talking about the Super 2 deadline. That’s more than just a couple weeks. And the sole purpose would indeed be to save Mark $. I agree the extra year of control is important for a small market team like the Brewers. That doesn’t mean it’s not frustrating that the Cardinals have the ability to install their top prospects in the OD lineup to maximize the team’s ability to win games while we have to keep ours down. Especially after last season when we missed the playoffs by a single game. If we’re going to go for one more run with Corbin, Woody, and Willy, then we should be all in with our best players.
  8. Brewcrew82
    Not true. Profar’s 2018 and 2020 seasons also were better than Naquin’s. Since 2018: Profar: 6 bWAR Naquin: 1.9 bWAR MLBTR also ranked Profar 33 among FA and projected him for 2 years $20 mil. Profar has reportedly been asking for higher than that, which is why he remains unsigned. Naquin simply isn’t good other than the ability to hit RHP, and even that declined last season (.746 OPS vs. .853 in 2021).
  9. Brewcrew82
    I’d much rather deal with the Dodgers imo. That return looks underwhelming. Then again, I’m not a big fan of Baty or Mauricio. With the Dodgers, we could even package Adames and Burnes together.
  10. Brewcrew82
    Profar is unsigned, not because he’s a bad player, but because Scott Boras is his agent and his asking price reportedly remains high. Whenever he does sign, he will likely sign a multi year major league contract with an AAV above $10 mil, whereas Naquin is an NRI who sucked last season. Not comparable situations. And even in the 2021 season you’re referring to, Naquin was barely above replacement level (.8 bWAR). If we’re relying on him for any longer than April/May, we could be in serious trouble.
  11. Brewcrew82
    Profar is a lot better than Naquin (I would actually love it if we signed him at this point). Naquin was below replacement level last season and was still barely above replacement level in 2021 when he OPSd .853 against RHP. Naquin was unsigned because he doesn’t have anything going for him other than his ability to hit RHP. As I said above, Taylor was likely to play at least some against RHP seeing as he did so last season and has neutral splits. In fact, he was pretty much just as good as Naquin against RHP last season. Not to mention that Taylor is a superior defender.
  12. Brewcrew82
    Maybe, though Tiedemann still remains a level or two below Painter and Rodriguez. Jays also don’t have anyone else to headline a Burnes trade. But I agree that the most likely scenario at this point is Burnes to LAD in the off-season for some combination of Miller, Stone, Pepiot, NastrinI, and Sheehan.
  13. Brewcrew82
    That’s what I hope likewise. Taylor would have at least given us production roughly comparable to Renfroe (better defense, worse bat) whereas Naquin was below replacement level last season. He’s okay in small doses because he’s a decent to good hitter against RHP, but anything more than that and we could be in trouble. Hopefully Taylor gets healthy and Frelick comes up and performs and then we can stop worrying.
  14. Brewcrew82
    Yeah, I’m pretty sure. Taylor doesn’t have sharp splits and was already an everyday-type player last season. It wasn’t even a guarantee that Naquin made the OD roster as a NRI. And if he did, I don’t think he would’ve gotten all the at-bats against RHP that he presumably will now.
  15. Brewcrew82
    Watch the Cardinals go with Walker as their OD starting RF, while we keep Frelick and Wiemer down until June so we can not only get that extra year of control, but also save Mark $ in a few years.
  16. Brewcrew82
    Frelick and Naquin aren’t comparable in terms of their ability to play CF. Naquin is legitimately bad in RF and even worse in CF. Frelick, meanwhile, is rated by prospect outlets as above average, with FanGraphs being a clear outlier. He’s not quite at the ability of Mitchell, but he‘s more than capable of playing there at this point.
  17. Brewcrew82
    Difference is Naquin would have played less with Taylor. His bat against RHP is more useful in short stints. Over the long run, he’s barely above replacement level. In your scenario, Naquin will get pretty much all of the ABs in RF vs RHP. There’s a reason why he was available as a NRI so late in the off-season.
  18. Brewcrew82
    I think he earned a spot on the OD roster with his performance in AAA last year. But I suspect the FO is going to keep him down to gain the extra year of service time, which would be a mistake imo. As for the Kwan comparison, it’s worth noting that while Kwan may hit the ball in the air more, Frelick is faster and hits it with more authority. Keith Law brought up Alex Bregman as a comparison with regard to Frelick’s small stature and power potential. I think that would represent the best outcome for the Brewers, and one I could easily happening with Am Fam’s short porch in right. Not 30 HR power, but maybe a season or two over 20.
  19. Brewcrew82
    I liked Naquin a lot more when paired with Taylor. Now, I’m not so sure, as his defense and hitting vs. LHP are so bad that he’s been barely above replacement level. I hope to God that, if the team is going to play service time games with Frelick, it’s only to the middle of April and not until June.
  20. Brewcrew82
    Best we can probably do prospect-wise at this point is: Holiday, Miller, Tiedemann, etc.
  21. Brewcrew82
    Thing to remember is that Taylor was going to be the backup CF, too. That hurts a guy like Naquin, who is pretty much limited to the corners. Frelick would be a great fit in that sense with the ability to play all 3 OF positions. Would be even better if he hit right-handed, but that’s getting greedy.
  22. Brewcrew82
    It’s really hard to say that when this team has consistently outperformed its run differential and xW/L throughout Counsell’s tenure. He’s considered within the industry to be one of the very best managers in baseball, and any team with a vacancy would be all over him. It would be a huge mistake for this franchise to let him go, so long as he wants to stay here.
  23. Brewcrew82
    Typical Dodgers/big market fan thinking. That deal is an insult. If the Brewers were to trade Burnes right now, the deal would have to look something like this: Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargas, Nick Nastrini (or Outman and Sheehan).
  24. Brewcrew82
    Lol. No I'm not Jake. I just want to win as many games as possible this season and believe that rostering Jake over Wilson starting on OD would help with that. As far as Wilson being no less promising than Lauer, I strongly disagree: Lauer (2018-2019 w/ SD): 4.40 ERA/108 ERA-/103 FIP-/3.1 fWAR Wilson (2021-2022 w/ PIT&ATL): 5.47 ERA/131 ERA-/127.5 FIP/0 fWAR Lauer was still a strong back-end starter w/ SD, while Wilson has been objectively terrible by every measure since 2021. And, as Brock highlighted, there's nothing in his profile to suggest that he'll drastically improve on those numbers.
  25. Brewcrew82
    Yeah. I just don't see it with Wilson. Unlike some of our other reclamation projects, there's not much to work with here imo. Would be a shame if they felt compelled to keep him on the roster over a guy such as Cousins.
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