Brewcrew82
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Everything posted by Brewcrew82
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That's why I said, "until last year". Ottavino's BB%'s from 2017-2021: 16%, 11.7%, 14.1%, 10.6%, 13%. And Ottavino was still a really good pitcher most of those years...Cousins has walk issues, yes, but they're not that dissimilar from Ottavino's before last year. And his peripherals are very solid. "Their success against him was largely on the back of a .392 BABIP." Well, Ottavino also has a career .796 OPS against LHH, nearly 200 points higher than against RHH..... More diverse arsenal than Cousins? I suppose, though that doesn't change the fact that they're both heavy slider/sinker pitchers... Far from a pointless comparison. Fact of the matter is that Cousins has been one of our best relievers over the past two seasons when healthy. Stashing him in AAA for the sake of keeping Bryse Wilson on the roster would be silly.
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Counterpoint: Adam Ottavino, who Cousins has a similar arsenal to in terms of relying almost exclusively on a mid 90s two-seamer and a sharp, biting slider, put up the following splits last season: .301/.358/.479/.837 vs. RHP; .160/.226/.253/.479 So, like Cousins, Ottavino also has sharp splits largely due to his reliance on his slider. Yet, Ottavino was one of the best relievers in the majors last year as the set-up man for Edwin Diaz (and has been really good before then). Yes, you probably don't want to use him in situations with multiple lefties up and he could stand to improve his control (which is quite similar to Ottavino before last year fwiw), but Cousins has proven himself to be a capable high-leverage arm with the ability to rack-up K's in droves. A tandem with Strzelecki and Cousins in the 6th/7th innings could be lethal. I have no idea why the Brewers would want to stash him in AAA in favor of Bryse Wilson.
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I think Cousins and Strzelecki are definitely same tier, meaning guys who are right after Devin and Bush in the bullpen pecking order due to their combination of results and strikeout ability. Strzelecki has better control, as you say, but Cousins also has superior strikeout ability. Their peripherals are very similar as well. Again, we're talking about a guy who has already proven himself at the major league level (in some high leverage spots no less) and who has been probably our 4th best reliever since 2021 (after Hader, Devin, and Boxberger). I see tremendous downside in trying to be cute and stash him in AAA just so you can keep a guy like Bryse Wilson and his 5.54 ERA. I do think there's a possibility that the Brewers will adopt your perspective, but that would be a real mistake imo.
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There's also a fine line to walk here. A case could certainly be made that stashing Cousins in AAA just so you can keep a guy like Bryse Wilson and his career 5.54 ERA (232 innings) crosses that line. Games in April are every bit as important as games in August or September. Last year was a good teacher in that sense.
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It's so sad that I can think of at least 5 games we had no business losing last year off the top of my head.
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Devin walked almost as much, but, like Cousins, is able to overcome it due to his strikeout ability. Cousins’ peripherals were strong too, with a 3.19 FIP and 3.24 xERA. I don’t understand having Strzelecki as a lock or not even having Cousins as part of the competition with Payamps, Guerra, or Varland.
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Cousins is hurt by the fact that he has options remaining, but when healthy, he's probably been our 3rd/4th best reliever over the past two seasons. He also has high-leverage experience. Varland has a lot more to prove, as we would have to play the rule 5 game with him the entire season.
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And how many 18 year olds played in AA last season. How many have played there in the last decade?
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Yeah. The more I study Cousins, the more I'm thinking he could be Adam Ottavino 2.0, with the mid 90s sinker to complement his devastating, sharp slider. Needless to say, that would be a big development for this team.
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Agreed. Though, I'm still mystified why they kept Cousins down in AAA as long as they did. Did he really take that long to recover from his injury? Because he's probably been our 3/4th best reliever over the past two years when healthy. Between Strzelecki and Cousins, and then Devin and Bush, I'm optimistic about our ability to hold down leads in the later innings. Would love the bullpen even more if it included Ashby, but hopefully he can return in May/June and star there.
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I want Mayer so bad. He’s the clear top TE in the draft imo and a top 10 player overall. All of the upper echelon teams in the NFL right now have a top tight end (Kelce, Kittle, Goedert, etc). It’s well past time for the Packers to join the list, as the position has basically been ignored since Finley.
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Chourio has by far more trade value than Mitchell... https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/461/
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And then we’ll be adding the eventual Burnes return on top of that. Hopefully this winter after he’s won his 2nd Cy Young and carried us deep into the postseason….
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- stiven cruz
- robert moore
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Hopefully Barry is finally canned after this year. I’d hate to see Leonhard end up in the NFC North or in the BIG.
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I don’t think it’s accurate to call a consensus top 10 prospect in baseball a “lottery ticket”. Chourio could flame out or fail to live up to expectations, for sure, but the fact that he’s ranked as high as he is means scouts and analysts are fairly certain that he will be a productive major league player. How productive is where it becomes debatable, but by nature, the vast majority of lottery tickets don’t end up making the majors, let alone become productive players. Freddy Peralta is the rare exception.
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- christian yelich
- garrett mitchell
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The fact that these two guys will likely open in AAA is a testament to the depth that Arnold and co. have built this winter. You figure between them, the rookie OFs, and now Voit and Naquin, someone is bound to step up and insert themselves into an everyday role.
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Prospect Comparison Part Two - Aaron Judge vs Joey Wiemer
Brewcrew82 commented on Jake McKibbin's blog entry in Jake's Blog
Stop getting me excited...Wiemer puts up a rookie season like Judge and Frelick puts up a rookie season like Kwan and we're World Series bound with our pitching... -
But, who's put up the most fWAR by a pitcher in MLB during that overall timeframe, and is number 1 in virtually every major pitching category? That's what I mean when I say he's already the most DOMINANT pitcher in franchise history. Last year, he tailed off in the second half, likely due to going significantly over his career high in innings. But, over this three year stretch since the pandemic and his development of his cutter, he's simply been the best pitcher in baseball, including putting up the second best season by FIP in the modern era. Sheets and Higuera never had a stretch as dominant as that, let alone picked up a Cy Young Award (though Higuera did finish 2nd behind Clemens in 1986 and Sheets should have finished higher in 2004).
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I think it’s fair to say that he’s already the most DOMINANT pitcher in franchise history. Since 2020, he’s been the best pitcher in baseball by fWAR. And then, during his CY season of 2021, he put up the second lowest FIP of the modern era, after Pedro’s 1999 season (aka the greatest single season by a pitcher in MLB history). Neither Sheets nor Higuera can replicate that….
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It is quite amazing how collective bargaining negotiations often produce bizarre outcomes that are not in the best interest of either party. And then MLB collective bargaining takes that truth to a whole different level...
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Makes you appreciate what the Bucks have going with Giannis all the more..
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Taking the words right out of my mouth. "Pyrrhic victory" is exactly what this is. The only good that can come out of this now is if Corbin pitches like a man possessed this season due to the huge chip on his shoulder, and then we reap the benefits the following offseason with a huge prospect haul. Now, if we're in playoff position again and we proceed to trade him a la Hader....
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It totally is being pessimistic for the sake of being pessimistic. Your statement was that “everything” needs to go right just for the Brewers to stay in contention. That’s not borne out whatsoever by the results of the past 6 seasons, in which the Brewers have been in contention in each of them, playing a total of 3 meaningless games. Nor is it borne out by the projections for this season (PECOTA, ZIPS). Also, you’re wrong about Winker. Even in by far the worst season of his career last year, he was still a significant upgrade over McCutchen (108 wRC+ vs. 98 wRC+). Seems to me like you’re the one being blinded here…
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- brandon woodruff
- corbin burnes
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Less talent on paper than in prior years? Who did we lose besides Hader? And then we made pretty significant upgrades at C and DH. Saying we need “everything” to break our way just to stay in postseason contention, despite the past 6 years of hard evidence, is just being pessimistic for the sake of being pessimistic…
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- brandon woodruff
- corbin burnes
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