Brewcrew82

Their GM has made clear to fans that the organization is ready to compete right now and that they're willing to significantly increase their payroll and potentially part with some higher-level prospects. https://www.mlb.com/news/orioles-mike-elias-could-expand-payroll-in-2023 And their run differential last year was in negative territory largely due to their slow start. From June on, they finished 12 games above .500 with a +22 run differential, as their young and exciting core, headlined by Rutschman and Henderson, was called up and given increased playing opportunities. They're quite similar to the Cubs in 2014, who finished strong on the backs of their young players and then took off for 90+ wins the next season. There's a reason why a report came out just yesterday naming them as a likely DeGrom bidder. Assuming they don't end up landing one of the big three in FA, they might then turn to the trade market to obtain their ace, which is where Burnes would then come in. Rodriguez or Holiday (and another top 100 prospect such as Westburg) would ultimately have to be the starting point for the Brewers to budge. The payroll space would also be there for them to make as serious run at extending Burnes.

I feel like they might as Taylor has been better than Puk (4.0 vs 1.3 WAR), has the same amount of control left as Puk, and they're in need of outfielders. FWIW, pr BTV, Oakland is the one that comes out with surplus value in this trade to the tune of 13.0 (Puk has a 0 MTV).

Yeah, if you can find the money for either, obviously you would trade Woodruff. But that's likely not the reality we're living in.

Yeah, if you can find the money for either, obviously you would trade Woodruff. But that's likely not the reality we're living in.

Bucks look like they're going to take the regular season more seriously this year. I wouldn't mind another 18/19-19/20-style 60 win campaign and a #1 seed. Last year was kind of ugly for stretches. Of course, I'm sure a lot of it has to do with the extra two months of rest.

Not really. If it was that clear, you would have said "when the contracts are signed." Why me and another poster understood it in that way.

To start, Woodruff is younger than Castillo. That is an incontrovertible fact. And, as I said, to play it safe in terms of time, my extension assumes an in-season agreement, in which case it doesn't kick in until 2024. That, plus 4 more years takes it through 2028, or Woodruff's age 35 season. 5 years $118 Million. Far from unreasonable. Obviously, the ideal would be an agreement this offseason which would preempt the two arb years and take him through one less year at 34. That may cost more, however, despite the presence of the Castillo contract as the Castillo deal was largely team-friendly. For now, I'll err on the side of caution and assume a higher total cost more in line with market value, and then be pleasantly surprised if a future agreement comes in cheaper.

Huh? Castillo is older than Woodruff...

Tremendous article that effectively summarizes my precise thoughts on a Woodruff extension. In particular, this quote: "anyone who has watched the playoffs knows that for a team to make a legitimate run toward a World Series title, they have to have at least two, and preferably three or four top starting pitchers." While we have some really promising position players starting to emerge from our farm system, eventually to be headlined by Chourio, we remain short on high-impact arms, which as you state, are necessary for a "legitimate run" at a WS. Obviously, we have Peralta and Ashby locked up already, but what would really help is locking up one of our sure-fire, top 10 aces in Burnes and Woodruff to front a sustained World Series push over the next 5-6 years. Woodruff, for obvious reasons, is the most likely candidate, and the deal you propose is eminently reasonable for both player and club. Then, you can trade Burnes to obtain your next generation of superstar pitchers (i.e., Rodriguez, Espino, Tiedemann, Miller, Stone, etc.).

Tremendous article that effectively summarizes my precise thoughts on a Woodruff extension. In particular, this quote: "anyone who has watched the playoffs knows that for a team to make a legitimate run toward a World Series title, they have to have at least two, and preferably three or four top starting pitchers." While we have some really promising position players starting to emerge from our farm system, eventually to be headlined by Chourio, we remain short on high-impact arms, which as you state, are necessary for a "legitimate run" at a WS. Obviously, we have Peralta and Ashby locked up already, but what would really help is locking up one of our sure-fire, top 10 aces in Burnes and Woodruff to front a sustained World Series push over the next 5-6 years. Woodruff, for obvious reasons, is the most likely candidate, and the deal you propose is eminently reasonable for both player and club. Then, you can trade Burnes to obtain your next generation of superstar pitchers (i.e., Rodriguez, Espino, Tiedemann, Miller, Stone, etc.).

My bad. I had forgotten about Burnes' oblique injury. Although, a shoulder injury is definitely more worrisome and that occurred just this year. Bottom line, Burnes is just plain better than Castillo and has two full years of control versus Castillo's then-1.5 years.

Luis Castillo was on the IL to start the season with a shoulder injury. Burnes has ZERO injury history.

And Burnes is much better than Castillo and, unlike Castillo, has zero injury history. Just look at the BTV sample I provided. It's fair value and what the Brewers should expect if they're going to trade Burnes.

Doesn't mean they're likely to land him. For a pitcher of DeGrom's quality, there's bound to be at least 10 teams that are "in on him". In the end, I'd be shocked if he didn't either end up back in New York or in LA or Atlanta. The most likely scenario remains that, even if they seriously pursue DeGrom, Verlander, and/or Rodon, they strike out on all three of them.

FWIW, Orioles are actually the team that walks away with excess value here.

Yeah, I'm not dealing with the Orioles if they don't give us Rodriguez, as I have no interest in DL Hall. Corbin Burnes is a top 3 pitcher in the game with no injury history to speak of and has two full years of control. This deal should be the Castillo trade on steroids. In that light, it's only fair that they give up a premium prospect such as Grayson Rodriguez. As for whether the Orioles would actually pull the trigger, I think they'd be quite tempted, especially if they think they can extend Burnes. Burnes would jumpstart their competitive drive, much like Castillo did this past year for the Mariners, and would provide a top of the rotation stud that they need to compete in a tough AL East. Rodriguez is a heck of a prospect, but Burnes is already what they hope Rodriguez ultimately becomes. And, again, I just don't see them as real players for the DeGrom, Verlander, Rodon triumvirate, which means that if they want a guaranteed front of the rotation stud starting Opening Day, Burnes is their best bet.

Not sure if I’d say 2019 was a pennant-caliber team. They were scorching hot for sure, but I think the lack of starting pitching and MVP Yelich would have caught up to them eventually had they made it past WSH. Certainly wouldn’t put them above the 2011 team. That team might’ve won the World Series had Greinke and Marcum not crapped the bed.

Not sure if I’d say 2019 was a pennant-caliber team. They were scorching hot for sure, but I think the lack of starting pitching and MVP Yelich would have caught up to them eventually had they made it past WSH. Certainly wouldn’t put them above the 2011 team. That team might’ve won the World Series had Greinke and Marcum not crapped the bed.

DeGrom is going to either New York, Atlanta, or LA. Verlander likely returns to Houston or goes out West. Rodon will also probably go to a large market such as the Cubs or Yankees. I just don't see them as a likely landing spot for any of those pitchers. But they have been rumored as a landing spot for Burnes. By trading for Burnes, they get a for-sure top 3 starter in the game to compete in a tough AL East. It's just one hypothetical scenario that works out trade value wise.

If they want Burnes, a top 3 pitcher in the game, that's who they're going to have to give up as I want nothing to do with DL Hall. They're not going after DeGrom, Verlander, or Rodon. They may or may not do it in the end, but it's an even deal value-wise.

And Castillo signed a team-friendly deal. It isn't unreasonable to expect that Woodruff may want something a little closer to market rate.

I'm assuming an in-season agreement, as with Castillo. Woodruff is also better than Castillo.

The "trade Corbin Burnes and still be competitive" edition: Kolten Wong, option declined Brent Suter, non-tendered Trevor Gott, non-tendered Victor Caratini, non-tendered Robert Suarez, signed for 2 years at 9M AAV, 3rd year team option Jose Abreu, signed for 3 years at 18.5M AAV Corbin Burnes, traded to BAL for Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westberg, and Seth Johnson Tyrone Taylor, traded to OAK for A.J. Puk Danny Jansen, acquired from TOR for Garrett Mitchell and Carlos Rodriguez (P) Brandon Woodruff, extended for 5 years at $118M, 6th year vesting option Vs. RHP Vs. LHP Frelick Frelick Jansen Jansen Yelich Abreu Abreu Renfroe Tellez Adames Adames Yelich Renfroe Urias Westburg Westburg Turang Brosseau C: Danny Jansen ($3.70M) 1B: Jose Abreu ($18.50M) 2B: Luis Urias ($4.30M) 3B: Jordan Westburg ($0.70M) SS: Willy Adames ($9.20M) LF: Christian Yelich ($26.00M) CF: Sal Frelick ($0.70M) RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11.20M) DH: Rowdy Tellez ($5.30M) Bench OF: Esteury Ruiz ($0.70M) Utility: Brice Turang ($0.70M) Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.00M) Backup C: Mario Feliciano ($0.70M) SP1: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M) SP2: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M) SP3: Eric Lauer ($5.20M) SP4: Grayson Rodriguez ($0.70M) SP5: Adrian Houser ($3.50M) CL: Devin Williams ($3.20M) RP: Robert Suarez ($9.00M) RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M) RP: AJ Puk ($0.70M) RP: Jake Cousins ($0.70M) RP: Peter Strzlecki ($0.70M) RP: Holby Milner ($1.10M) RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.20M) Payroll is 3.69% under budget

Best GM in our history to this point. That's how he'll be remembered. Hopefully, Arnold can finish his work and take us to the promised land.

Best GM in our history to this point. That's how he'll be remembered. Hopefully, Arnold can finish his work and take us to the promised land.