Redd Vencher

Top of the rotation if you only look at ERA. His peripherals all suggested a 4+ ERA guy. Basically what Lauer was for the Brewers pre 2023.

A reasonable trade for Burnes to the Cubs would be Horton, Cassie/Shaw, and another piece or 2 further away or Morel as the 3rd piece if you want to go that way. If a Burnes to Cubs trade happens, it won't be reasonable.

Those are some awful trades for the Brewers.

Signings Matt Chapman 5 years $100 M (This is top pay I'd be willing to go. If he could be had for less, I'd prefer that, but I've seen 6 years $150 M projected. I think that's ludicrous for the player he currently is) Tyler Mahle 2 years $20 M maybe with a 3rd year option (out until at least May recovering from TJ) Mitch Garver 2 years $16-18 M maybe with a 3rd year option. Erick Fedde 2 years $8 M maybe with a 3rd year option Jakob Junis 2 years $8 M Manny Pina 1 year $1 M (stop gap for Quero) Trades Corbin Burnes to Dodgers for Emmett Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Justin Wrobleski, and Hyun-Soek Jang. Devin Williams to Orioles for Santander, Ortiz, and Norby Extensions Brandon Woodruff 2 years $20 M ($5 M and $15 M respectively) Would still like an Adames extension if possible. See if he'll take a 6 year $90-$100 M extension after the down offensive season. My Thought Process The big thing I was looking for when putting this together is finding power for the lineup on reasonable value. A lot of Brewers fans are looking at Hoskins, but I don't like what it would likely cost to bring him in. Garver has a hard time staying healthy behind the plate, so a move to fulltime 1B/DH might keep him healthy and get him 500+ PA for the first time in his career. He's got the power to be a 30 HR threat if that's the case, and the past playing time should keep his salary down. I'm looking at Narvaez' FA contract last offseason as a comp. While I would like to think the Orioles would send what it would take to get Burnes, I don't think they'd be willing to do that. Santander in his final season at $12.7 M is an obvious trade candidate to open up playing time for their top prospects in AAA. I don't think he has much trade value, so he's certainly not the headliner for a guy like Williams. I think Ortiz and Norby are the middle infield prospects they're most likely to move for pitching. A top 100 guy and a fringe top 100 guy is fairly good value for Williams, and Santander just kind of pushes it over the top to move him. The final piece of the power puzzle is 3B Chapman. He's not the same hitter he was in his early years with Oakland, but he's still a solidly above average bat and excellent defender at 3B making him a 4 WAR player. With that WAR coming more from his defense than his bat, I think his price is going to be lower than what some think. If we can pull these 3 off, we've brought in 2 30 HR threats and a 20-25 HR threat without harming the defense much if at all. The other big trade I have is Burnes to the Dodgers for Sheehan, Stone, Wrobleski, and Jang. The Dodgers depth of pitching prospects and young pitching plus their ability to extend Burnes makes the most likely to move the kind of talent it'll take to get Burnes. With Burnes and Williams departing, this leaves a hole in the pitching department. My solution is depth above big contracts with the largest FA deal going to Mahle who's recovering from TJ, He's looked like a solid mid rotation arm or better for the last 4 seasons when healthy. I think there's good value to be had in a deal with him. We still need more depth while he's recovering, so I may have gone a bit overboard with both Fedde and Junis pushing guys like Gasser and Stone to AAA, but I'd rather have excess depth and work around it than have the young arms and Houser/Rea struggle with no help internally. It's also not difficult to move on from the vets at these prices if they struggle and the young arms force your hand. As for the couple of extensions listed, I think Woodruff is too good of arm when healthy to just nontender, so I want to see him sign a 2 year deal to give us a shot at 1 more year with him in 2025 and an outside shot at availability in the 2024 playoffs. I'm still a big Adames believer as he set career bests in BB% and K% without sacrificing too much power with his overall line dragged down by a career worst BABIP, and it's hard to find top 10 SS production even with a top 100 prospect like Ortiz. See if he's willing to trade bigger payday in FA for some more security on a 6 year $90-$100 M deal after a down offensive season. C: William Contreras ($0.77M) 1B: Mitch Garver ($8.00M) 2B: Brice Turang ($0.77M) 3B: Matt Chapman ($20M) SS: Willy Adames ($12.40M) LF: Christian Yelich ($22.00M) CF: Garret Mitchell ($0.77M) RF: Sal Frelick ($0.77M) DH: Anthony Santander ($12.7M) Bench OF: Tyrone Taylor ($1.70M) Utility: Joey Ortiz ($0.77M) Utility: Andruw Monasterio ($0.77M) Backup C: Manny Pina ($1.0M) SP1: Freddy Peralta ($5.50M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Emmet Sheehan ($0.77M) SP4: Adrian Houser ($5.60M) SP5: Erick Fedde ($3.5M) CL: Joel Payamps ($1.70M) RP: Abner Uribe ($0.77M) RP: Hoby Milner ($1.70M) RP: Bryse Wilson ($1.30M) RP: Jakob Junis ($3.5M) RP: Trevor Megill ($0.77M) RP: Elvis Peguero ($0.77M) RP: Colin Rea ($3.5M) Payroll is 14.43% under budget

Can we delete this. I didn't click post at all.

C: William Contreras ($0.77M) 2B: Brice Turang ($0.77M) 3B: Andruw Monasterio ($0.77M) SS: Willy Adames ($12.40M) LF: Christian Yelich ($26.00M) CF: Sal Frelick ($0.77M) RF: Tyrone Taylor ($1.70M) Bench OF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.77M) SP1: Corbin Burnes ($15.10M) SP2: Freddy Peralta ($5.50M) SP3: Wade Miley (Minus Buyout) ($9.00M) SP4: Adrian Houser ($5.60M) SP5: Colin Rea ($3.50M) CL: Devin Williams ($6.50M) RP: Abner Uribe ($0.77M) RP: Hoby Milner ($1.70M) RP: Bryse Wilson ($1.30M) RP: Joel Payamps ($1.70M) RP: Trevor Megill ($0.77M) RP: Elvis Peguero ($0.77M) Payroll is 31.31% under budget

Rea was a Free Agent.

Orioles aren't going to trade Mayo+ for Williams and 1 of our OF. Our only chance at Mayo is in a Burnes trade.

I'd want someone better than Povich or much better than just a single flyer at the back end. Mayo, Norby, and then one of Baumeister/De Leon/Nunez would be what I look for.

The trade structure for me to trade Burnes is going to have to be a top 50 prospect or player equivalent, another top 100 prospect or player equivalent, and another piece or 2 further away depending on the front of the package. This framework is based on previous trades for SP with similar control to Burnes.

Brewers were T-6th in baseball in average (.270) with RISP, 8th in OPS and wRC+. They hit .300 with RISP during the Diamondbacks series.

That would be way too much for 1 year of Goldschmidt.

I don't believe this "Brewers" official. The front office is pretty tight lipped. If one of the top 5 had been available, Alonso would have been a Brewer.

My guess is that none of the top 100 guys were offered. Luis Lara and Luke Adams were 2 other prospects pulled from action near the deadline along with Jarvis. My guess is it was Lara, Adams, and Jarvis being discussed for Alonso before pivoting to Jarvis for Canha.

I think the deal proposed is a bit much for 1.3 seasons of control of an oft injured DH only player gauranted nearly $20 M over that span. The additional $31 M for the 2 option years doesn't add any additional value to a trade. It's not a horrible overpay, so I could live with it.

Assuming a September callup and making the Opening Day roster in 2024, Chourio won't hit FA until after the 2029 season. The expensive years for a Chourio extension will be the bought out FA years 2030 onwards. Signing bonuses are irrelevant in these discussions. Yelich's deferred salary is paid out at $2.5 M per year. The Brewers are paying more this year for Voit, Ruf, and Hiura. It has 0 impact on a Chourio extension. Moving Yelich's contract does abaolutely nothing to reallocation to a Chourio contract.

Yelich's deal has zero impact on giving Chourio a long term exgension. He'd be off the books before the FA years that would be the most expensive part of the extension ever kicked in.

Rogers was better than Hader post trade.

Gabriel Moreno was traded this last offseason.

Best 2B in franchise history.

That's big part of it as well, but the perception is a team trying to win 2-1 and struggling to overcome when the "slugfest" wins are more common even in the depressed run environment.

The issue is people remember the low scoring games the Brewers lost than the other games. The issue without question was the pitching. We allowed 4+ runs 90 (12th most in baseball) times and only held opponents to <3 runs 51 times. (T-14th with 4 other teams)

Top 10 4+ R games 1. Dodgers 109 2. Cardinals 100 3. Braves 99 4. Blue Jays 98 ---Red Sox 98 6. Brewers 97 7. Mets 95 8. Phillies 94 9. Yankees 93 10. Diamondbacks 91 ----Gaurdians 91 Top 10 5+ R games 1. Dodgers 86 2. Cardinals 83 3. Mets 81 4. Braves 80 5. Yankees 79 6. Brewers 78 7. Blue Jays 77 8. Red Sox 74 9. Diamondbacks 73 10. Mariners 71 Top 10 <3 R games 1. Dodgers 32 2. Braves 35 3. Blue Jays 38 4. Astros 45 5. Phillies 46 ---Diamondbacks 46 7. White Sox 47 ----Cardinals 47 8. Red Sox 48 ---Brewers 48 ----Mets 48

Why would the acquisition of Winker mean they'll wait on Frelick when Winker is the DH?

Probably trying to clear a 40 man spot as well.