Redd Vencher

Those are some awful trades for the Brewers.

Signings Matt Chapman 5 years $100 M (This is top pay I'd be willing to go. If he could be had for less, I'd prefer that, but I've seen 6 years $150 M projected. I think that's ludicrous for the player he currently is) Tyler Mahle 2 years $20 M maybe with a 3rd year option (out until at least May recovering from TJ) Mitch Garver 2 years $16-18 M maybe with a 3rd year option. Erick Fedde 2 years $8 M maybe with a 3rd year option Jakob Junis 2 years $8 M Manny Pina 1 year $1 M (stop gap for Quero) Trades Corbin Burnes to Dodgers for Emmett Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Justin Wrobleski, and Hyun-Soek Jang. Devin Williams to Orioles for Santander, Ortiz, and Norby Extensions Brandon Woodruff 2 years $20 M ($5 M and $15 M respectively) Would still like an Adames extension if possible. See if he'll take a 6 year $90-$100 M extension after the down offensive season. My Thought Process The big thing I was looking for when putting this together is finding power for the lineup on reasonable value. A lot of Brewers fans are looking at Hoskins, but I don't like what it would likely cost to bring him in. Garver has a hard time staying healthy behind the plate, so a move to fulltime 1B/DH might keep him healthy and get him 500+ PA for the first time in his career. He's got the power to be a 30 HR threat if that's the case, and the past playing time should keep his salary down. I'm looking at Narvaez' FA contract last offseason as a comp. While I would like to think the Orioles would send what it would take to get Burnes, I don't think they'd be willing to do that. Santander in his final season at $12.7 M is an obvious trade candidate to open up playing time for their top prospects in AAA. I don't think he has much trade value, so he's certainly not the headliner for a guy like Williams. I think Ortiz and Norby are the middle infield prospects they're most likely to move for pitching. A top 100 guy and a fringe top 100 guy is fairly good value for Williams, and Santander just kind of pushes it over the top to move him. The final piece of the power puzzle is 3B Chapman. He's not the same hitter he was in his early years with Oakland, but he's still a solidly above average bat and excellent defender at 3B making him a 4 WAR player. With that WAR coming more from his defense than his bat, I think his price is going to be lower than what some think. If we can pull these 3 off, we've brought in 2 30 HR threats and a 20-25 HR threat without harming the defense much if at all. The other big trade I have is Burnes to the Dodgers for Sheehan, Stone, Wrobleski, and Jang. The Dodgers depth of pitching prospects and young pitching plus their ability to extend Burnes makes the most likely to move the kind of talent it'll take to get Burnes. With Burnes and Williams departing, this leaves a hole in the pitching department. My solution is depth above big contracts with the largest FA deal going to Mahle who's recovering from TJ, He's looked like a solid mid rotation arm or better for the last 4 seasons when healthy. I think there's good value to be had in a deal with him. We still need more depth while he's recovering, so I may have gone a bit overboard with both Fedde and Junis pushing guys like Gasser and Stone to AAA, but I'd rather have excess depth and work around it than have the young arms and Houser/Rea struggle with no help internally. It's also not difficult to move on from the vets at these prices if they struggle and the young arms force your hand. As for the couple of extensions listed, I think Woodruff is too good of arm when healthy to just nontender, so I want to see him sign a 2 year deal to give us a shot at 1 more year with him in 2025 and an outside shot at availability in the 2024 playoffs. I'm still a big Adames believer as he set career bests in BB% and K% without sacrificing too much power with his overall line dragged down by a career worst BABIP, and it's hard to find top 10 SS production even with a top 100 prospect like Ortiz. See if he's willing to trade bigger payday in FA for some more security on a 6 year $90-$100 M deal after a down offensive season. C: William Contreras ($0.77M) 1B: Mitch Garver ($8.00M) 2B: Brice Turang ($0.77M) 3B: Matt Chapman ($20M) SS: Willy Adames ($12.40M) LF: Christian Yelich ($22.00M) CF: Garret Mitchell ($0.77M) RF: Sal Frelick ($0.77M) DH: Anthony Santander ($12.7M) Bench OF: Tyrone Taylor ($1.70M) Utility: Joey Ortiz ($0.77M) Utility: Andruw Monasterio ($0.77M) Backup C: Manny Pina ($1.0M) SP1: Freddy Peralta ($5.50M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Emmet Sheehan ($0.77M) SP4: Adrian Houser ($5.60M) SP5: Erick Fedde ($3.5M) CL: Joel Payamps ($1.70M) RP: Abner Uribe ($0.77M) RP: Hoby Milner ($1.70M) RP: Bryse Wilson ($1.30M) RP: Jakob Junis ($3.5M) RP: Trevor Megill ($0.77M) RP: Elvis Peguero ($0.77M) RP: Colin Rea ($3.5M) Payroll is 14.43% under budget

Can we delete this. I didn't click post at all.

C: William Contreras ($0.77M) 2B: Brice Turang ($0.77M) 3B: Andruw Monasterio ($0.77M) SS: Willy Adames ($12.40M) LF: Christian Yelich ($26.00M) CF: Sal Frelick ($0.77M) RF: Tyrone Taylor ($1.70M) Bench OF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.77M) SP1: Corbin Burnes ($15.10M) SP2: Freddy Peralta ($5.50M) SP3: Wade Miley (Minus Buyout) ($9.00M) SP4: Adrian Houser ($5.60M) SP5: Colin Rea ($3.50M) CL: Devin Williams ($6.50M) RP: Abner Uribe ($0.77M) RP: Hoby Milner ($1.70M) RP: Bryse Wilson ($1.30M) RP: Joel Payamps ($1.70M) RP: Trevor Megill ($0.77M) RP: Elvis Peguero ($0.77M) Payroll is 31.31% under budget

Rea was a Free Agent.

Orioles aren't going to trade Mayo+ for Williams and 1 of our OF. Our only chance at Mayo is in a Burnes trade.

I'd want someone better than Povich or much better than just a single flyer at the back end. Mayo, Norby, and then one of Baumeister/De Leon/Nunez would be what I look for.

The trade structure for me to trade Burnes is going to have to be a top 50 prospect or player equivalent, another top 100 prospect or player equivalent, and another piece or 2 further away depending on the front of the package. This framework is based on previous trades for SP with similar control to Burnes.

Brewers were T-6th in baseball in average (.270) with RISP, 8th in OPS and wRC+. They hit .300 with RISP during the Diamondbacks series.

That would be way too much for 1 year of Goldschmidt.

I don't believe this "Brewers" official. The front office is pretty tight lipped. If one of the top 5 had been available, Alonso would have been a Brewer.

My guess is that none of the top 100 guys were offered. Luis Lara and Luke Adams were 2 other prospects pulled from action near the deadline along with Jarvis. My guess is it was Lara, Adams, and Jarvis being discussed for Alonso before pivoting to Jarvis for Canha.

4.5 years of Luis Robert is something I'd consider Chourio for.

2 years of Renfroe making simlar money to what Jimenez is guaranteed through 2024 (nearly $20 M) netted 2 non top 10 org prospects in a bad farm system at the time, and the Red Sox had to take on JBJ's contract to do so. The market on these types of players has been pretty well established for a while.

It's possible all prospects are replacement level players even a top 100 guy like Gasser. That doesn't mean it isn't a massive overpay for 1.3 seasons of an oft injured DH only player guaranteed near $20 M over that span. 2 years of Renfroe for similar money netted Binelas and Hamilton, but the Red Sox had to take JBJ to get that return.

That's massive overpay for 1.3 years of Jimenez. (Options aren't worth picking up for the player he currently is)

I think the deal proposed is a bit much for 1.3 seasons of control of an oft injured DH only player gauranted nearly $20 M over that span. The additional $31 M for the 2 option years doesn't add any additional value to a trade. It's not a horrible overpay, so I could live with it.

Assuming a September callup and making the Opening Day roster in 2024, Chourio won't hit FA until after the 2029 season. The expensive years for a Chourio extension will be the bought out FA years 2030 onwards. Signing bonuses are irrelevant in these discussions. Yelich's deferred salary is paid out at $2.5 M per year. The Brewers are paying more this year for Voit, Ruf, and Hiura. It has 0 impact on a Chourio extension. Moving Yelich's contract does abaolutely nothing to reallocation to a Chourio contract.

Yelich's deal has zero impact on giving Chourio a long term exgension. He'd be off the books before the FA years that would be the most expensive part of the extension ever kicked in.

The 2023 Oakland A's would be expected to beat the Atlanta Braves about once in every 5 playoff length series. Since the talent in the playoffs is packed closer together it's essentially 50-50 and at worst 40-60 in a given playoff series. At 50-50 each series, a team without a bye has a a 6.25% chance to win the World Series and a team with a buy has a 12.5% chance to win a WS. Let's accept the premise that the Brewers would be the worst playoff team and be disfavored in every series, they'd have a 2.56% chance at the World Series. Let's say for sake of argument they empty out the farm for Goldy, Arenado, and Robert and they go from a team without a bye to a team with a bye and favored in every series. They have a 21.6% chance to win the World Series, or better put they still have nearly 80% chance of not winning the World Series. Given the offensive struggles, nabbing some guys that are good bets to put up 100-110 wRC+ and not kill us on defense is the best play for a World Series.

About a million according to Spencer's math.

Why would a 1 for 20 stretch make him a buy low candidate? I can't see the Mariners moving a guy with 2.5 years of control when they look to be competitive in the near future.

Rogers was better than Hader post trade.

Gabriel Moreno was traded this last offseason.

Best 2B in franchise history.