Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

Jake McKibbin

Brewer Fanatic Contributor
  • Posts

    2,288
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    6

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

News

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospects Ranking

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

Milwaukee Brewers Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Pick Tracker

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Jake McKibbin

  1. Don't get me wrong, I think Santana was a good pickup for the Brewers But my question having watched those playoffs is, how different would they have been if the crew had Pete Alonso in that spot? I think the brewers clubhouse could've been a big boost to his production, and he's a player whos just so good with runners on. I'd love to find out what the Mets demanded for him
  2. If the sneks win, they should just give the medals to the brewers really. It's only fair
  3. Wes Clarke Started off the game with an RBI single, it was his only hit of the night, but he did walk twice and then strike out twice going 1-3, 2BB Hendry Mendez took a walk, but otherwise went 0-4 at the plate with a strikeout No Brewers pitchers got game time
  4. Jackson ChourioJeferson QueroJacob MisiorowskiTyler BlackRobert GasserBrock WilkenCarlos F RodriguezCooper PrattJosh KnothMike BoeveEric Brown JrLuis LaraLogan HendersonEric BitontiYophery RodriguezDaniel GuilarteLuke AdamsDylan O'RaeJuan Baez
  5. That's unfortunate, Freddy may have hung that but Thomas was out in front. A 93mph home run, just frustrating
  6. Good to see Sal make solid contact again of late, that's unfortunate and obviously results over good looks at this point. That was a bullet
  7. Same. That's clear as day that he's dazed, and you cannot risk another collision making this 10x worse. Watching him catch is no concussion test either, I'm not a fan of that from Lovullo at all
  8. Just imagining the conversation with Counsell "Jesse, just foul off pitches, and work a walk. Set the table that's all we need" Jesse proceeds to swing and miss on three straight pitches
  9. Absolutely, and a key for Monasterio is that he's actually been quite adept against fastballs this season. Pfaadt struggled with his sweeper and the fastball got him out of trouble too easily Gallen has a better pitch mix, but again his fastball has been hit recently and I think Monasterio will definitely invite a little more pressure than Turang's sub-.500 OPS in September
  10. Good Peralta wins this game, bad Peralta walks a ton and may still win the game, but have 100 pitches after four innings. All depends on if he gives up a home run ball, and if men are on base for it That being said I somehow have markedly more confidence in him than I did in Burnes yesterday
  11. Also intriguing is if Winker does get taken off due to injury... would Counsell prefer Rowdy, or the on fire, on base machine that is Tyler Black as a pinch hitter?
  12. That stung. However, this is a three-game series; Zac Gallen can be attacked, and Andruw Monasterio could make a huge difference in tonight's game. Here's why the Brewers lineup can take a massive leap forward. Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports The Brewers made one critical mistake in setting up for game one, which cost them. During the best offensive outputs of the season, the batting order has been notorious for limiting the dead at-bats of the first half’s offense. Notably, when Brice Turang went on a hot streak, the whole offense looked superior; however, of late, he’s been reduced to a hopeful bunt here and there, with an almost unplayable approach at the plate. The Brewers Need More from Second Base In his last 30 games, Turang has hit .205/.259/.218, with just one extra-base hit. Narrow that to his last seven games, which becomes .167/.211/.167. If you wanted a black hole that sucks all potential offense in, you have it, sitting in the eighth slot of the Brewers lineup ahead of the “en fuego” Tyrone Taylor. There’s a great case for the defense of Turang being a run-saver for extreme ground ball pitchers like Wade Miley, but when you have strikeouts galore with Freddy Peralta, that infield defense becomes less critical. He made a key tag on Corbin Carroll, but other than that, he had fairly routine plays at the keystone. Andruw Monasterio has two defensive runs saved in 197 innings at second base and seven at third base. He’s a plus defender, if not at Turang’s level, but more importantly, he can make contact with the ball. Turang was bunting in his first at-bat, giving himself up to move Donaldson to second before the Taylor home run, and it’s tough to quibble this without hindsight, but part of the issue is that his only use in that situation is to lay down a bunt. He was never going to attempt anything else. Someone who could hit may have meant two men on base when Taylor mashed a ball out but could have hit into a double play. His next at-bat, however, was a poor matchup for him. With men on second and third and two outs, the Brewers needed someone to drive them in. Turang did manage to take a walk, but this was a potential pinch-hit situation early in the game for Monasterio, who has been quite adept against left-handers. In the fifth, the final nail in the coffin, Turang approached with bases loaded and nobody out. The brief hope of a hit by pitch was extinguished by his foot moving away from the ball, and he struck out swinging on three very hittable fastballs. The Brewers needed someone to make contact here but failed, and the lining into a double play next up hurt all the more. Turang isn’t trusted to hit with a man on base. His only value for now is his defense, particularly given the Brewers seemed loath to challenge Gabriel Moreno’s arm behind the plate. Monasterio, on the other hand, has an above-average ability to Hit the ball in the air with a 17.7-degree average launch angle and 41.3% sweet spot rate Above average strikeout rate of just 21% A walk rate of 9%, around average Unlike Turang, he can hit fastballs, with an xBA of .287 this season Monasterio may not be a flashy name, but his quality plate appearances, ability to play good defense, and ability to get the ball into the outfield are going to be far more valuable than Brice Turang’s range at second base, especially because of how little ground balls Freddy Peralta generates. It’s critical to this Brewers offense that everyone in the lineup can keep the line moving. Turang came up in two ample run-scoring opportunities last night, and it’s safe to say neither time was there confidence in him coming through. They need more, and Monasterio can provide that. Should Zac Gallen be feared? Firstly, despite one illness-fueled start where he was hit around in his last appearance, Freddy Peralta has been the best pitcher on this staff for several months, with some of the top offenses in baseball having no answer for him. His budding confidence, his improved command when getting ahead, particularly with his off-speed stuff, and that incredible four-seamer has made him the best strikeout pitcher in the big leagues. Since the start of August, he’s averaged 12.5 strikeouts per nine, comfortably leading the likes of Spencer Strider and Blake Snell. He’s capable of generating the swing-and-miss that Burnes struggled with last night. Gallen has been a very good pitcher in that same stretch of games. However, he’s over 25 innings past his previous career high, and some cracks showed in September. Overall, on the year, he’s in the 3rd percentile for average exit velocity, being hit hard 46% of the time and an expected ERA of 4.16. He has a premium defense behind him, which helps, but this is a very different Gallen from the one that started the year with insane scoreless streaks. The issue he’s found in August and September has been how well hitters have gone on his fastball, which would usually be as effective as Peralta’s. His main two pitches have average 90mph exit velocities in August and September, and while still being above average, the swing and miss on his curveball has dropped as the year progressed, from 47.8% in June to 30% in September. Since the all-star break, Gallen has a 4.03 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a 4.42 ERA away from home, where he’s struggled this season. He’s pitched 210 innings this season with no time to recover at the end, given the tightness of the wildcard race. He can be got to, and so can the bullpen, as the Brewers showed last night. The plan is simple. Let Peralta do his thing and ensure the lineup avoids the black holes. The difference it made in changing Santana, Canha, and Frelick for Wiemer, Tellez and Winker showed how much of an upgrade average production can be. It’s a pitching matchup that, on form, favors the Brewers. In a do-or-die situation, can they step up to the challenge? View full article
  13. The Brewers made one critical mistake in setting up for game one, which cost them. During the best offensive outputs of the season, the batting order has been notorious for limiting the dead at-bats of the first half’s offense. Notably, when Brice Turang went on a hot streak, the whole offense looked superior; however, of late, he’s been reduced to a hopeful bunt here and there, with an almost unplayable approach at the plate. The Brewers Need More from Second Base In his last 30 games, Turang has hit .205/.259/.218, with just one extra-base hit. Narrow that to his last seven games, which becomes .167/.211/.167. If you wanted a black hole that sucks all potential offense in, you have it, sitting in the eighth slot of the Brewers lineup ahead of the “en fuego” Tyrone Taylor. There’s a great case for the defense of Turang being a run-saver for extreme ground ball pitchers like Wade Miley, but when you have strikeouts galore with Freddy Peralta, that infield defense becomes less critical. He made a key tag on Corbin Carroll, but other than that, he had fairly routine plays at the keystone. Andruw Monasterio has two defensive runs saved in 197 innings at second base and seven at third base. He’s a plus defender, if not at Turang’s level, but more importantly, he can make contact with the ball. Turang was bunting in his first at-bat, giving himself up to move Donaldson to second before the Taylor home run, and it’s tough to quibble this without hindsight, but part of the issue is that his only use in that situation is to lay down a bunt. He was never going to attempt anything else. Someone who could hit may have meant two men on base when Taylor mashed a ball out but could have hit into a double play. His next at-bat, however, was a poor matchup for him. With men on second and third and two outs, the Brewers needed someone to drive them in. Turang did manage to take a walk, but this was a potential pinch-hit situation early in the game for Monasterio, who has been quite adept against left-handers. In the fifth, the final nail in the coffin, Turang approached with bases loaded and nobody out. The brief hope of a hit by pitch was extinguished by his foot moving away from the ball, and he struck out swinging on three very hittable fastballs. The Brewers needed someone to make contact here but failed, and the lining into a double play next up hurt all the more. Turang isn’t trusted to hit with a man on base. His only value for now is his defense, particularly given the Brewers seemed loath to challenge Gabriel Moreno’s arm behind the plate. Monasterio, on the other hand, has an above-average ability to Hit the ball in the air with a 17.7-degree average launch angle and 41.3% sweet spot rate Above average strikeout rate of just 21% A walk rate of 9%, around average Unlike Turang, he can hit fastballs, with an xBA of .287 this season Monasterio may not be a flashy name, but his quality plate appearances, ability to play good defense, and ability to get the ball into the outfield are going to be far more valuable than Brice Turang’s range at second base, especially because of how little ground balls Freddy Peralta generates. It’s critical to this Brewers offense that everyone in the lineup can keep the line moving. Turang came up in two ample run-scoring opportunities last night, and it’s safe to say neither time was there confidence in him coming through. They need more, and Monasterio can provide that. Should Zac Gallen be feared? Firstly, despite one illness-fueled start where he was hit around in his last appearance, Freddy Peralta has been the best pitcher on this staff for several months, with some of the top offenses in baseball having no answer for him. His budding confidence, his improved command when getting ahead, particularly with his off-speed stuff, and that incredible four-seamer has made him the best strikeout pitcher in the big leagues. Since the start of August, he’s averaged 12.5 strikeouts per nine, comfortably leading the likes of Spencer Strider and Blake Snell. He’s capable of generating the swing-and-miss that Burnes struggled with last night. Gallen has been a very good pitcher in that same stretch of games. However, he’s over 25 innings past his previous career high, and some cracks showed in September. Overall, on the year, he’s in the 3rd percentile for average exit velocity, being hit hard 46% of the time and an expected ERA of 4.16. He has a premium defense behind him, which helps, but this is a very different Gallen from the one that started the year with insane scoreless streaks. The issue he’s found in August and September has been how well hitters have gone on his fastball, which would usually be as effective as Peralta’s. His main two pitches have average 90mph exit velocities in August and September, and while still being above average, the swing and miss on his curveball has dropped as the year progressed, from 47.8% in June to 30% in September. Since the all-star break, Gallen has a 4.03 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a 4.42 ERA away from home, where he’s struggled this season. He’s pitched 210 innings this season with no time to recover at the end, given the tightness of the wildcard race. He can be got to, and so can the bullpen, as the Brewers showed last night. The plan is simple. Let Peralta do his thing and ensure the lineup avoids the black holes. The difference it made in changing Santana, Canha, and Frelick for Wiemer, Tellez and Winker showed how much of an upgrade average production can be. It’s a pitching matchup that, on form, favors the Brewers. In a do-or-die situation, can they step up to the challenge?
  14. I genuinely believe this offense has shown it can handle top pitching well, but to pull this off they'll need to win a tight game and a blowout game. Get an early lead and stick em
  15. Feel this thread needs some love right now... Wouldn't be the cardiac crew for nothing eh? Peralta has been better than Burnes, and Zac Gallen has been struggling. It'll be 1-1 heading into tomorrow, where Wade Miley will bamboozle the dbacks Easy peezy We got the worst pitcher out of they way, now the two aces to carry it on
  16. Usually yes, but he's actually been quietly one of the best players on the roster of late with the bat. Much improved plate discipline in September .365 OBP
  17. @wiguy94you're usually the guy for this.. was he at least hitting the ball hard in Nashville?
  18. I think no Mitchell may be the right call... at least Wiemer has been able to hit lefties But why in God's name is Winker there
  19. He's been better recently, if still below average. Just finished the preview if anyone's keen to check it out, but the key with him is laying off the sweeper. Should match up well in theory with the Brewers patient. If they can wait on a fastball, or the lefties wait on a changeup, damage may ensue
  20. That last paragraph is exactly it. We can never know for sure, and maybe she was just talking about his net worth as a means to becoming more romantically involved (though I hate that too). I'm not arguing she's a good person either, realistically none of us know all the details, I doubt either of them ever release everything that went on. And very few people, if she did act as he suggests, would be this way. You're entirely right and definitely shouldn't prejudice ones view in future situations. Maybe we got it wrong, maybe it's right. as in the Depp/Heard case, I think it's safe to say that maybe neither of them were particularly wholesome humans
  21. The Brewers have finally had their playoff opponents confirmed, facing the young, streaky Arizona Diamondbacks at home starting Tuesday evening. The Diamondbacks have looked, at times, like the best team in baseball this year, in one of the toughest divisions--while also looking like one of the worst over a two-month span in July and August. There’s a lot of ways this could go, but here’s why the Brewers are in the driver’s seat. The Starting Pitchers Brandon Pfaadt has been a mainstay of the Diamondbacks rotation through much of the year, but has struggled to compete in a lot of his games. Throughout most of the season he battled in vain, to a 6.13 ERA up until August 18th, and through then, he had only one start wherein he held a team scoreless. He has improved since, with two of his last three outings being scoreless (the other giving up five earned runs to the Yankees), but it all comes down to one pitch for him: his sweeper. He lacks command with this pitch, something that could be exacerbated by the pressure of a playoff series, and can hang it on occasion, but he generally keeps it outside the strike zone. He’s comfortable throwing it in any situation, and has held hitters to a .180 batting average and .323 slugging percentage, while generating a 33% whiff rate. On the other hand, his two other main pitches are the fastball and slider, both of which are hit hard over 50 percent of the time, and it’s something the Brewers offense may enjoy. They have been incredibly selective in their at-bats with what they swing at, and the key to Pfaadt is whether or not you can leave the sweeper and zero in on the fastball and changeups. The other thing he struggles with is ground balls, which many Brewers fans will be delighted to hear. For a team leading the league in double plays over the last two months, it will be key for them to avoid easy outs and the momentum-stalling plays. Pfaadt has generated just a 32.6% ground-ball rate on the year, significantly below average, which could play into the Brewers contact skills. The likely hope for the Diamondbacks is for Pfaadt to cover four-plus innings. If he reaches five with minimal damage before turning it over to the bullpen, they’ll be ecstatic. Corbin Burnes, on the other hand, has been just as sporadic, at times dealing like the Cy Young winner he is, and looking at other times like a washed-up has-been. His diminished strikeout rate this year, caused by less swing-and-miss on his cutter, has led to occasional big innings, with games getting away from him. Nothing encapsulates this more than his previous two starts against the Diamondbacks. His first game, he went eight innings, allowing three hits and zero earned runs to the Snakes. Second time out, he got through five innings, with 10 base runners and seven earned runs. Now, Burnes has tweaked his delivery since then, accentuating his cutter and curveball with grip changes while converting his slider into more of a sweeper-style pitch in order to differentiate it further from his cutter, and it’s shone through in his results. After sporting a 2.51 ERA in September with a 0.94 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in his 28 1/3 innings pitched, Burnes looks dialed-in for postseason dominance. The Brewers will hope for Burnes to cover hopefully six strong innings, perhaps more if he’s firing on all cylinders--but they’ll want to stress that he doesn’t have to go deeper into games, and nibbling around the zone will be more than ok, if it means keeping away from the cneter of the strike zone, as that's how he's gotten himself into trouble this season. The bullpen is fresh and ready to go if needed, with a ton of options at Craig Counsell’s disposal, but also it's important to note that Burnes is a rested workhorse, and is more than capable of throwing 110-120 pitches in a do or die situation. The news about Brandon Woodruff's injury will make length all the more important, if he can save the bullpen for a possible game three, or even better, a game one of the NLDS. The Offense The Diamondbacks have an advantage here, with some hot bats through the month of September who can change games. Corbin Carroll is huge for the energy of this team, with his ability to get on base and cause havoc on the basepaths. Since the All-Star break, he’s stolen 28 bases and been caught on just three occasions, with a .356 on-base rate affording him a lot of opportunities to use his speed. A dynamo at the top of the order, he's the sparkplug for everything the Diamondbacks do offensively, and is almost guaranteed to win Rookie of the Year. Then you have the power bats of Christian Walker (15 home runs in the second half), Ketel Marte (10 home runs, .826 OPS since the break) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.and Tommy Pham’s high-powered bats that can change a game in an instant. Another wrinkle they’ve added is the performance of Gabriel Moreno behind the plate, who has shone of late with a cannon of an arm that’s been the best in baseball at catching base stealers, but also hitting .313/.383/.511 since the Midsummer Classic, while striking out in just 16 percent of his plate appearances. His pitch framing and blocking skills leave something to be desired, but this is a bat you don’t want to face with runners in scoring position. In total, this isn’t a truly fearsome offense, missing a real impact bat, but their youth and speed is critical in their ability to squeeze runs across, which could be vital in a short playoff series. Carroll will be absolutely key, and I have a gut feeling that Marte could play a big part in the outcome of this series. Like the Brewers, they have holes, with Geraldo Perdomo and Jordan Lawlar in particular struggling of late--although Lawlar might not even make their roster, and if he does, he's likely to be used purely as a defensive sub and pinch-runner. The bats are cold, after just two runs in their season-ending series against the Astros, where they got swept. It should be noted that the Diamondbacks were at the end of a gruelling stretch of road games by that point, and should be better rested after most of their lineup have a couple of days off, but they'll not be feeling quite on form when they rock up to Milwaukee. Which version turns up is anyone's guess. The Brewers, on the whole, are slightly weaker. However, they've become significantly more potent since the trade deadline, with the promotion of Sal Frelick and the external additions of a scalding-hot Mark Canha and the power potential in the bats of Carlos Santana and Josh Donaldson--all to go alongside the hitting machine that is William Contreras (.318/.389/.489 in the second half) and a mostly-healthy Christian Yelich, who is hitting .400/.516/.760 in his last seven games. Tyrone Taylor is an under-the-radar difference maker, but Brice Turang has an OPS of under .500 in his last 15 games, creating a black hole at the bottom of the order. He will start against the righthander, if potentially replaced later in the game for Andruw Monasterio’s more consistent hitting ability. On the Brewers offense, the players I’m expecting to shine are Yelich (with a .327 batting average against four-seam fastballs this season) and Donaldson--a good bet to hit Pfaadt out of the park, given that he averages over 93 miles per hour in exit velocity on fastballs. Both are patient enough to wait on a heater in the zone, and each has the playoff experience to do damage when it comes. Potential Issues for the Brewers There are two major concerns going into this game. The first is that, although the Brewers are facing a below-average starter, the lack of long balls hit by the team this year (24th in MLB) mean that even well-hit balls can be hauled in, with BABIP luck playing a big factor in whether this offense has scored well or not. With a tendency to get men on regularly, there will be opportunities to score, but that leaves much to the semi-accidental placement of the batted balls that come with runners in scoring position. If they find gaps, this could be a huge, tone-setting win, if not, it could be the repetitive double plays and lineouts that can stall them. The other is Burnes. On his day, he could shut down the Diamondbacks deep into the game, but that’s if he brings his best stuff. The use of his curveball will be key in generating strikeouts, and it will be interesting to see if Counsell goes with Victor Caratini as his battery mate (given they’ve played most of this year’s games together) or Contreras, to allow more flexibility with the designated hitter spot. The Brewers will feel this is a game they ought to take, with the starting pitching advantage, but playoff baseball is nothing if not unpredictable. Our game thread will be going haywire on Tuesday night. Feel free to follow along as all the drama unfolds with other fans watching from home!
  22. The playoffs have arrived, and the tension is beginning to build. If you want a sneak preview of just how the game may play out, look no further. Brewer Fanatic has you covered. We've got all the information on the hot hitters, probable pitchers, and any other details you need to know before first pitch. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports The Brewers have finally had their playoff opponents confirmed, facing the young, streaky Arizona Diamondbacks at home starting Tuesday evening. The Diamondbacks have looked, at times, like the best team in baseball this year, in one of the toughest divisions--while also looking like one of the worst over a two-month span in July and August. There’s a lot of ways this could go, but here’s why the Brewers are in the driver’s seat. The Starting Pitchers Brandon Pfaadt has been a mainstay of the Diamondbacks rotation through much of the year, but has struggled to compete in a lot of his games. Throughout most of the season he battled in vain, to a 6.13 ERA up until August 18th, and through then, he had only one start wherein he held a team scoreless. He has improved since, with two of his last three outings being scoreless (the other giving up five earned runs to the Yankees), but it all comes down to one pitch for him: his sweeper. He lacks command with this pitch, something that could be exacerbated by the pressure of a playoff series, and can hang it on occasion, but he generally keeps it outside the strike zone. He’s comfortable throwing it in any situation, and has held hitters to a .180 batting average and .323 slugging percentage, while generating a 33% whiff rate. On the other hand, his two other main pitches are the fastball and slider, both of which are hit hard over 50 percent of the time, and it’s something the Brewers offense may enjoy. They have been incredibly selective in their at-bats with what they swing at, and the key to Pfaadt is whether or not you can leave the sweeper and zero in on the fastball and changeups. The other thing he struggles with is ground balls, which many Brewers fans will be delighted to hear. For a team leading the league in double plays over the last two months, it will be key for them to avoid easy outs and the momentum-stalling plays. Pfaadt has generated just a 32.6% ground-ball rate on the year, significantly below average, which could play into the Brewers contact skills. The likely hope for the Diamondbacks is for Pfaadt to cover four-plus innings. If he reaches five with minimal damage before turning it over to the bullpen, they’ll be ecstatic. Corbin Burnes, on the other hand, has been just as sporadic, at times dealing like the Cy Young winner he is, and looking at other times like a washed-up has-been. His diminished strikeout rate this year, caused by less swing-and-miss on his cutter, has led to occasional big innings, with games getting away from him. Nothing encapsulates this more than his previous two starts against the Diamondbacks. His first game, he went eight innings, allowing three hits and zero earned runs to the Snakes. Second time out, he got through five innings, with 10 base runners and seven earned runs. Now, Burnes has tweaked his delivery since then, accentuating his cutter and curveball with grip changes while converting his slider into more of a sweeper-style pitch in order to differentiate it further from his cutter, and it’s shone through in his results. After sporting a 2.51 ERA in September with a 0.94 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in his 28 1/3 innings pitched, Burnes looks dialed-in for postseason dominance. The Brewers will hope for Burnes to cover hopefully six strong innings, perhaps more if he’s firing on all cylinders--but they’ll want to stress that he doesn’t have to go deeper into games, and nibbling around the zone will be more than ok, if it means keeping away from the cneter of the strike zone, as that's how he's gotten himself into trouble this season. The bullpen is fresh and ready to go if needed, with a ton of options at Craig Counsell’s disposal, but also it's important to note that Burnes is a rested workhorse, and is more than capable of throwing 110-120 pitches in a do or die situation. The news about Brandon Woodruff's injury will make length all the more important, if he can save the bullpen for a possible game three, or even better, a game one of the NLDS. The Offense The Diamondbacks have an advantage here, with some hot bats through the month of September who can change games. Corbin Carroll is huge for the energy of this team, with his ability to get on base and cause havoc on the basepaths. Since the All-Star break, he’s stolen 28 bases and been caught on just three occasions, with a .356 on-base rate affording him a lot of opportunities to use his speed. A dynamo at the top of the order, he's the sparkplug for everything the Diamondbacks do offensively, and is almost guaranteed to win Rookie of the Year. Then you have the power bats of Christian Walker (15 home runs in the second half), Ketel Marte (10 home runs, .826 OPS since the break) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.and Tommy Pham’s high-powered bats that can change a game in an instant. Another wrinkle they’ve added is the performance of Gabriel Moreno behind the plate, who has shone of late with a cannon of an arm that’s been the best in baseball at catching base stealers, but also hitting .313/.383/.511 since the Midsummer Classic, while striking out in just 16 percent of his plate appearances. His pitch framing and blocking skills leave something to be desired, but this is a bat you don’t want to face with runners in scoring position. In total, this isn’t a truly fearsome offense, missing a real impact bat, but their youth and speed is critical in their ability to squeeze runs across, which could be vital in a short playoff series. Carroll will be absolutely key, and I have a gut feeling that Marte could play a big part in the outcome of this series. Like the Brewers, they have holes, with Geraldo Perdomo and Jordan Lawlar in particular struggling of late--although Lawlar might not even make their roster, and if he does, he's likely to be used purely as a defensive sub and pinch-runner. The bats are cold, after just two runs in their season-ending series against the Astros, where they got swept. It should be noted that the Diamondbacks were at the end of a gruelling stretch of road games by that point, and should be better rested after most of their lineup have a couple of days off, but they'll not be feeling quite on form when they rock up to Milwaukee. Which version turns up is anyone's guess. The Brewers, on the whole, are slightly weaker. However, they've become significantly more potent since the trade deadline, with the promotion of Sal Frelick and the external additions of a scalding-hot Mark Canha and the power potential in the bats of Carlos Santana and Josh Donaldson--all to go alongside the hitting machine that is William Contreras (.318/.389/.489 in the second half) and a mostly-healthy Christian Yelich, who is hitting .400/.516/.760 in his last seven games. Tyrone Taylor is an under-the-radar difference maker, but Brice Turang has an OPS of under .500 in his last 15 games, creating a black hole at the bottom of the order. He will start against the righthander, if potentially replaced later in the game for Andruw Monasterio’s more consistent hitting ability. On the Brewers offense, the players I’m expecting to shine are Yelich (with a .327 batting average against four-seam fastballs this season) and Donaldson--a good bet to hit Pfaadt out of the park, given that he averages over 93 miles per hour in exit velocity on fastballs. Both are patient enough to wait on a heater in the zone, and each has the playoff experience to do damage when it comes. Potential Issues for the Brewers There are two major concerns going into this game. The first is that, although the Brewers are facing a below-average starter, the lack of long balls hit by the team this year (24th in MLB) mean that even well-hit balls can be hauled in, with BABIP luck playing a big factor in whether this offense has scored well or not. With a tendency to get men on regularly, there will be opportunities to score, but that leaves much to the semi-accidental placement of the batted balls that come with runners in scoring position. If they find gaps, this could be a huge, tone-setting win, if not, it could be the repetitive double plays and lineouts that can stall them. The other is Burnes. On his day, he could shut down the Diamondbacks deep into the game, but that’s if he brings his best stuff. The use of his curveball will be key in generating strikeouts, and it will be interesting to see if Counsell goes with Victor Caratini as his battery mate (given they’ve played most of this year’s games together) or Contreras, to allow more flexibility with the designated hitter spot. The Brewers will feel this is a game they ought to take, with the starting pitching advantage, but playoff baseball is nothing if not unpredictable. Our game thread will be going haywire on Tuesday night. Feel free to follow along as all the drama unfolds with other fans watching from home! View full article
×
×
  • Create New...