Jake McKibbin

Interesting with Williams at 6, obviously a valuable guy but the gap may be huge between him and Burnes value wise. Williams at best provides 1.5 WAR over a regular reliever, Burnes provides 4 WAR plus over a 2 WAR starter at his best... Though that extra year, but relievers don't seem to take in the same hauls in trades.

I think you've nailed it here, both sides got what they wanted. The brewers have a plethora of solid options in their propsect ranks, so some high ceiling talent is exactly what they wanted, particularly in the rotation and shortstop. Baltimore needed an ace in a highly contentious division, and now look like perhaps the nastiest starting rotation in baseball with incredible depth while not losing talent (save maybe Hall) that was going to impact them better on their staff than in a trade. I think Baltimore's struggles today develop Halls command may not extend to the Brewers too, who have shown remarkable ability to develop pitching talent. It remains to be seen but initially I love the brewers approach regarding the talent they went after, and without hindsight, I think a B/B+ grade is just right

I'm glad you enjoyed it, thanks for the kudos! And welcome to the forum, always nice to have a fresh face

I think he's got a real shot to start as well, his walk rate was actually okay in the majors as well which is exciting with that raw stuff. But we'll have to see how the discussions with Arnold go down

DL Hall and Joey Ortiz may differ from the big-name prospects we wanted, but they have a huge upside. Here’s how the Brewers can unlock the high-ceiling talent in both DL Hall and Joey Ortiz. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports (Burnes), Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports (Hall), Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports (Ortiz) DL Hall is a high-octane prospect, the 21st pick overall in the 2017 draft with electric staff, which injuries and control issues have curtailed. Joey Ortiz is as smooth as they come at shortstop, a lock to provide plus defense with solid bat-to-ball skills and a route to accessing in-game power from his high exit velocities. If they can get the most out of Ortiz and Hall, this trade will seem like a steal in a few years, but how can the Brewers get to that point? DL Hall as a Starter Hall is a flame-throwing left-hander with an upper-90s fastball with a massive induced vertical break (IVB), meaning he can force a lot of swings and miss up in the zone. His mid-80s changeup has developed into a plus pitch that’s been very successful against right-handed hitters, while his slider took a big step forward in 2023 to add more vertical drop and caused carnage in August and September. Baseball America ranked his fastball as 80-grade, with a 60-grade curveball and 70-grade slider. His issue is command, but even that took steps forward in 2023 when he threw more strikes than any other season in his career. To win this trade, the Brewers will need DL Hall to be a starting pitcher and stay healthy, two questions the Baltimore Orioles weren’t confident they could answer. Command is his biggest problem, with 32 walks in 52 innings in the minor leagues during 2023, but if the Brewers can find some road to even average command, Hall’s raw stuff is amongst the best pitching prospects in baseball and presents a clear pathway to a top of the rotation arm for years to come. The reason he’s available is because of the uncertainty, but the Brewers' success in their pitching lab, turning high-end raw stuff into high-end pitchers, should be noted. Here are his absurd swing-and-miss rates at Triple-A behind the slider and fastball last season, even inside the strike zone. Hall debuted in the majors last year down the stretch as a reliever and was effective both in the regular season and the Orioles playoff run. That being said, the Brewers have many arms in their bullpen as things stand, and high-end ones, too, with Abner Uribe, Joel Payamps, and Devin Williams, meaning Hall is almost certain to be tried as a starter this year. He has the floor of a top reliever to fall back on, but make no mistake; DL Hall will be in the Brewers' rotation come Opening Day. Joey Ortiz Accesses his Power Ortiz hit .321/.378/.507 in an offensive-friendly Triple-A environment last year, but he shows signs of being an elite bat-to-ball player. Striking out just 17.7% of the time, he managed to make effective contact in most areas of the strike zone, as seen below: He has areas, specifically inside pitches, where he mashes, but he doesn’t have any natural weak spots inside the strike zone, allowing him to project well after he can adjust to big-league pitching. He is MLB-ready next season, and his defensive floor means he will get regular playing opportunities. He also registers strong exit velocities and line drive rates within the zone so that he can slug, but his chase rates are astronomical. Like Jackson Chourio in 2023, Ortiz's contact skills meant he swung at pitches outside the zone too often, producing sub-optimal contact. For the following chart, chase rates of 35%+ are considered poor: Ortiz accesses his power better from the inner half of the plate, so swinging more on the inside is justifiable in some ways. However, you must find a way to afford to do so at the rates he does in the major leagues. It should be a simple tweak in his approach, along with Chourio, that will result in more consistent power and better walk rates in the majors. Ortiz can also enhance his value by getting regular time at shortstop, which may be in short supply given Willy Adames's elite performance in recent years. In his final season before hitting free agency, moving to put Adames at second or third base and impacting his value in free agency would likely cause an issue with Adames and the clubhouse atmosphere that the Brewers organization puts a premium on. Post 2025, there is a strong chance Ortiz can make it to his spot; however, in 2024, it most likely involves him shuffling between second and third base. It gives the Brewers the option to address needs in season, allowing Tyler Black, Brice Turang, and Joey Ortiz to fight it out for playing time (likely pushing Andruw Monasterio to the side), all of whom will get a chance to stamp their mark on the positions. With many options in the upper minors, such as Oliver Dunn and Brock Wilken, the organization has enough options to deliberate over who to stick or twist with, and that's a fantastic place to be. I would say a lot of this conundrum depends on Brice Turang: if his bat rebounds to average production level, then Ortiz may see more time at third base; if it doesn't, Turang may be relegated to a utility glove on the bench this season, or even Triple A to develop further in preparation for 2025. Black's defense at third improved markedly last season, albeit he is likely to average at best in the majors. However, the Brewers will be loathe to move him over to first base quite so soon. He will see some playing time there in tandem with Rhys Hoskins, but the Brewers' infield is stacked with talent and questions right now, including if Adames' trade talks are being held. It’s clear that both players have the potential to be difference-makers at the major league level, and a lot of people are sleeping on Joey Ortiz, in particular, while writing off DL Hall as a reliever. The Brewers' extraordinary pitching development team and the minor adjustments needed by Ortiz going into 2024 lead me to believe the Brewers have, despite losing Corbin Burnes, potentially upgraded their team as a whole off the back of this trade (bold statement time), never mind for the years to come. They also saved $15 million that they can use to improve their rotation for the season, meaning there could be more to come this offseason. Does this change your thoughts about the trade? What do you think the Brewers have got in Hall and Ortiz? Let us know in the comments below. Also, watch for more detailed rundowns surrounding each player from our prospect experts Jamie Cameron and Spencer Michaelis; they're not to be missed. View full article

Such high ceilings in areas of need... This trade could be great or shocking and we probably won't know for at least a year. Though if Burnes gets injured early doors... I like it, but don't think anyone's gotten fleeced

I think longevity is huge for catchers and although William Contreras has a remarkably athletic frame, it's a demanding position so I think I'm okay not locking up long term and enjoying the ride while it lasts. That being said, hitting more than just in her half fast balls and sliders would go a long way to taking him to the next level

Ashby really fascinates me, all the stuff in the world, but if his four seamee was effective he could be truly elite. Without it, he has to work in the bottom of the zone, but it's a shame with his incredible feel for spin. Kind of similar to Burnes in that regard And 100% on Peralta, Woodruff was so elite last year in so few starts, but perhaps the personal development can increase the consistency for him. I think there will always be that long ball worry though, I remember a particular spart of starts last season where he'd give up a solo homer nearly every outing and strike out virtually everyone else

The Brewers have some scintillating, high-ceiling arms among their pitching staff, even without Brandon Woodruff. The team needs these three guys to step up and find a new level this year. How can they do so? Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports In this article are players who have the type of raw movement and high velocity that most can only dream of. Whether by dint of injuries, wavering command, or a combination of both, they have struggled to live up to their potential, but all have the ability to make monumental breakouts in 2024. Each has shown glimpses of what they can achieve while lacking consistency at the top end, so let’s take a deeper dive into what they can do if given a period of relative good health. Freddy Peralta Likely the first name on anyone’s list of Brewers pitchers to break out, Peralta hasn’t found his form of the 2021 season easy to replicate. After a poor start to the 2023 season, however, he recorded a 2.81 ERA en route to winning the Pitcher of the Month award in August. A list of his accomplishments after the break: Strikeouts per Nine - 12.58 - (2nd) WHIP - 0.88 - (2nd) Batting Average Against - .188 (3rd) xFIP - 2.54 - (1st by a mile) In short, Peralta was as dominant as can be, in large part due to a realization that he was tipping his pitches. In June, someone approached Peralta to show him he had a “tell,” and from that point on the results changed dramatically. Whereas earlier in the season he was struggling to generate his usual swing-and-miss (particularly with two strikes), Peralta began blowing hitters away with his high-spin, flat-VAA fastball and that nasty slider, which elicited a whiff rate of 45.8% on the season. The change kept him out of the deeper counts, and resulted in lower quality of contact. Less traffic, and more cheap outs. Fastball Freddy’s biggest remaining issue comes with the home run ball, something the entire Brewers rotation in 2023 seemed to have a fondness for. Peralta is a fly-ball pitcher, and when he leaves his pitches in the center of the strike zone, he gets punished. During the first half of the season, he found himself more prone to these errors, especially with men on base. Another slight tweak made a remarkable difference. Peralta is a high-energy, fun-loving person, which seemed to evaporate when he went to the mound in favor of a more demure, stern demeanor. Chris Hook noticed this and mentioned it in July, before Peralta really took off performance-wise. The mental side is so important in sports, and it showed here. If you need a reminder, here’s Peralta mowing down the then-scalding Cincinnati Reds lineup: So what does Peralta need to do in 2024? Continue where he left off over the final three months of the season, trust his stuff, and let his pitches eat up opposing hitters. It’s really that simple, and a full season of that Freddy Peralta is a strong Cy Young candidate. Aaron Ashby Coming off a shoulder injury that kept him out for all of 2023, it might be easy to forget just how much talent and potential Ashby has. With an elite sinker that moves in ways we haven’t seen before and that runs up to 99 mph pairing with a wipeout array of offspeed and breaking pitches, Ashby showed the potential to have both a world-class ground-ball rate and a healthy strikeout rate. However, his propensity to lose his shape and leave pitches center cut caused him some trouble major trouble with home runs, along with occasional spurts of wildness. Over the weekend, we learned that Ashby will be treated like a starter and given every opportunity to prove himself as such this season. With the majority of hitters in the league being right-handed, it doesn’t help that Ashby gave up almost one home run every six innings pitched in 2022 to this demographic, and a big part of that was his refusal to accept that pitching up in the zone wasn’t a viable way for him to get outs. With his pitch mix of sinker, slider, changeup and curveball (but without a viable four seam fastball, since his has been crushed so far in the majors), Ashby’s location needs to be on point to the bottom of the zone, or cramping hitters high and tight. Here’s why: As you can see, when Ashby’s command is tight on the corners, he has been nearly impossible to lay a barrel on. However, when he missed, he got absolutely pounded in 2022, and this happened too often as a result of highly volatile raw stuff. If you want to see what can make him so successful, however, here it is: When he does keep the ball down, even if he gets hit hard, it’s almost always on the ground; The sinker he has is so potent, a modicum of command improvements could make Ashby a strong number three in a rotation, but his main goal for 2024 has to be health, realistically pitching over 120 innings. The stuff will play and his first season, however raw, provided more than enough glimpses of just how effective Aaron Ashby can be for the Brewers. The question is now whether he has retained the raw movement and velocity post-surgery that’s made him such a promising player, and whether he can take a step forward. Abner Uribe If raw, unbridled talent and passion is your thing, look no further than Uribe. A fiery competitor, Uribe has emerged as the heir apparent to Devin Williams and already (in half a season) possesses the 11 fastest pitches thrown in Brewers history. He averages 99.5 mph on his fastballs. Have a look at the utterly unhittable sinker that isn’t even his best pitch: His sinker averages almost three inches more vertical drop than the average MLB two-seamer, a big reason for the 53.7% ground ball rate that allows him to get out of trouble with double plays, even when he does get a little bit wild. It’s a truly absurd offering, but it’s surpassed by Uribe's best pitch, his slider. He recorded an expected batting average of just 0.028 against it, with a 58.1% whiff rate, including inducing hitters to chase almost a third of the time. That’s really quite exceptional, given how often he missed the zone wildly. It has incredible horizontal sweep to it, which invites the question: How this can possibly be called a breakout? Well, Uribe has some issues, and over the half a season’s service time he’s accumulated so far he has shown himself prone to wildness, both mentally and technically. When he starts to lose control, it’s akin to a self-destruct button, and it can only be a matter of time before a walk rate of 15.7% starts to catch up to you. This can be solved with time and experience at the highest level, and it’s important to note that Uribe was heavily plagued with injuries in the minor leagues, so he’s a lot more raw than you would imagine, with just 60 games of pitching experience in total. A note to a close miss from the list: It was difficult not to mention the likes of Robert Gasser. The high ceilings of the players above just gave them the nod ahead of him, but he’s definitely worth keeping an eye on, too. Can you see any of the above pitchers catching fire in April? Who would you wager to have the most expectations-defying season? Let us know in the comments below, and keep an eye out for part two on the hitters we should keep an eye on in 2024. View full article

This is some detail! None of this would be surprising, and I've a sneaky feeling that there will be a trade in first month of the season from someone desperate after an injury. Nice one!

I'm a win or go home game, tied at 5-5, Hall has come up clutch om/BrisbaneBandits/status/1751228137080267134?s=20

Good god that farm system is cack Would need probably their top two pitching prospects

I think part of the excitement has to be related to the size of upgrade he is on last season, it's monumental as well as bringing the power element that should drive in a ton of runs with the on base skills at the top of the order. He's not a world beater on his own, but the fit is just so good as you mentioned. And I think the ACL injury is a big reason they could afford him at all, and the only reason the contract is a short one

It is a crapshoot though, something the Diamondbacks proved last year. And power gives them a better chance, on top of two studs at the top of the rotation Interesting about his projection though, as he's never had a particular down season, the question with Hoskins is cam he stay healthy more than anything. Another impact signing definitely solidifies them as favourites, especially a mid rotation starter (like a 2.5) but I'm not sure they can afford that, and the lack of movement elsewhere in the Central does make it less needful. I'm with you though on that one! Arroyo may be the bat, but can definitely see a pitcher. Joe Ross may not be fully pencilled in, meaning they have more to come, but I can see both ways in terms of the rotation and middle infield (especially after Arroyo signed) to stick or twist. Where would you upgrade positionally?

Rhys Hoskins is the type of big-name external addition the Brewers have been crying out for over the last few seasons, and the biggest free agent to come to Milwaukee since Lorenzo Cain in 2018. With many wondering what their goals were for 2024, it’s now clear: Milwaukee are all in. How does the roster look now, and how can the Brewers look to upgrade further? Image courtesy of © Stephanie Amador / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK Rhys Hoskins is a massive upgrade at first base, regardless of his defensive limitations, in large part because his bat is just what the Brewers were missing last season, both in the regular season and in the playoffs. Power changes games in an instant, and it’s something Hoskins possesses in abundance, with an average of 36 home runs and 36 doubles per 162 games over his career so far. However, the Brewers have questions remaining if they want to commit to winning it all in 2024, and while Hoskins gives them a great shot at getting another “bite of the apple,” those World Series odds could do with another boost. The Starting Rotation With a haze of inactivity hanging over baseball (and especially over the lackadaisical NL Central) since the Yoshinobu Yamamoto signing, the Brewers intention to win this season couldn’t be more clear now, which should put an end to rumors of trades for Willy Adames and Corbin Burnes, at least for the time being. It’s refreshing to see a team approach the sport with a desire to win each and every season, and certainly not something to fault the Brewers for. However, they do have a little work left to do in certain areas, not least the starting rotation; Brandon Woodruff, while pitching only 67 innings, produced 2.4 WAR in 2023. Over a workload like Burnes's, Woodruff would have led the league by 1.5 WAR, a monstrous feat. Although small in quantity, the quality and impact of his innings will need to be replaced. The Brewers have attempted to go the route of hoping for better starts from the back end of their rotation, in particular gambling on the form and fitness of Wade Miley and Aaron Ashby, to provide stability and consistency while Colin Rea and Joe Ross create depth. Ashby and Miley haven't been models of consistency, and while the performances of Julio Teheran and Rea in 2023 were immensely valuable, they’re unlikely to be repeated in 2024. Between Woodruff's departure and some possible regression, the team needs to get some value by improving the rest of the rotation. One way in which to see this boost is to project stronger form from both Burnes and Freddy Peralta. Both struggled to begin 2023 for a variety of reasons, including Peralta tipping pitches, and Burnes struggling with his pitch mix. However, both finished the season with Pitcher of the Month awards after the All-Star break and showed how dominant they can truly be. Burnes had a 2.71 ERA in the second half, while Peralta had more strikeouts per nine than anyone on his way to a 2.81 ERA. A dominant two-headed dragon at the top followed by average production from the middle and back end of their rotation would leave the Brewers more than happy with the state of their pitching corps. They may still be eyeing up a reliable innings eater for their back end, such as Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger, or even the injury-prone yet higher-ceiling Hyun-Jin Ryu. All of the above would be intriguing, but the lack of minor-league options for both Rea and Ross suggests that the Brewers may be finished with their rotation. The Middle of the Order In Hoskins, the Brewers finally have a reliable slugger who (health permitting) will drive in runs from the heart of the order. That being said, one slugger alone rarely creates an intimidating lineup, and with table setters like Sal Frelick and Christian Yelich, there’s a belief that multiple 30-plus home runs players will change this offense from mediocre to fearsome. To that end, the Brewers are currently relying on high-upside (if less reliable) power coming from three talented players with differing problems. Willy Adames has shown he can clear the 30 home-run mark, and managed to demonstrate a hitherto unseen ability to take his walks in 2023. In that very process, however, he lost his power stroke, with his underlying metrics showing a significant decline in both exit velocity and consistency in the quality of contact he made. Adames confessed to his own frustrations at finding his form for short periods of time, before seeing it drift away again. There were suspicions that an early-season concussion may have had a greater effect than initially realized, however the long and short is that heading into his free-agent walk season, Adames will be desperate to show what his bat can do. Finding that home run ceiling again will go a long way to finding a sizable offer in free agency, along with his usual high-quality defense. Jackson Chourio is highly likely to start the season with the big-league club, and showed remarkable progress last season in his contact rates while dealing with special, pre-tacked balls in Double-A Biloxi, producing absurd exit velocities for his age and frame. His biggest issue is his chase rate, often swinging outside the zone and generating weaker contact, resulting in easier outs. If Chourio can continue to develop physically over the offseason and become a shade more selective at the plate, he has MVP contender written all over him. If he can tap into his pull side a little more often as well, Chourio has the ability to threaten the 40-home run mark, but it seems unfair to expect or project such lofty goals on a player still learning and developing. We may see him flourish later in the season, but early in the year, you can expect to see Chourio improving his chase rates slowly and adapting to the quality of major league pitching. Brewers minor-league hitting coordinator Brenton del Chiaro recently spoke (on Just Baseball's podcast with Aram Leighton) about the hard work Joey Wiemer is putting in behind the scenes to clean up his pre-swing movements, marking him as someone to watch this season. An elite defender, especially in right field, Wiemer showed prodigious power, but his hit tool struggled mightily in the majors, especially toward the end of the season. He is undoubtably a 30-home run talent, if his contact skills reach even a slightly below-average quality. However, a particular weakness with breaking pitches was exploited time and again by the best pitchers in the league. He started to simplify his load in Nashville after his September demotion, and further doing so will allow his athletic hands and exceptional raw power to do serious damage. He may be a left field shout, but don’t be at all surprised to see Wiemer crushing it in 2024. All in all, the Brewers have some prospects coming through who will make them loath to look for power upgrades at third base or corner outfield spots, making it more likely than not that they stick with what they have lineup-wise. Betting on a power surge from one of the above three seems like it could pay off, but only time will tell. If they hit on two of them, this becomes a top-five lineup in baseball. Middle Infielders (and Turang) Brice Turang is an exceptional defender at second base, perhaps the best in the league. His glove allowed him to produce 1.6 bWAR with just a .585 OPS at the plate--quite remarkable, but also untenable as a black hole at the bottom of the order. Matt Trueblood recently wrote about how Turang could benefit from cutting the plate in half, and even a slightly below average bat could be a valuable addition for the Brewers. It would be wise, however, to hedge their bets, and with Tyler Black not being an effective defender at second base, this could force the Brewers to look outside their current clubhouse. One very intriguing (and likely cost-effective) option on the market is Tim Anderson, who’s bat-to-ball skills and high-quality defensive acumen would fit the Brewers. He has a reputation as a tough personality, and a shockingly bad 2023 season (that is, in fairness, a huge outlier for him) creates some risk, but it’s important to note just how poorly managed the malfunctioning White Sox were in 2023, and that it could have played a large part in his struggles. The Brewers' strong clubhouse, something Hoskins will only add to, will be able to handle Anderson and potentially even get the best out of him, while allowing Turang’s bat to adjust and develop alongside him. Other options include Whit Merrifield, who produced less WAR than Turang last season, and potentially Oliver Dunn, who cost Henry Mendez and Robert Moore this offseason but has a power bat and plus speed, with a patient approach that may play in the big leagues. The Long and Short There are cost-effective options out there for a Brewers team that is clearly trying to compete. Whether they prefer internal options or to take gambles on the likes of Ryu or Anderson (who, at their best, are difference makers, but carry major risk), though, remains to be seen. If they go in as they are, you’d bet the Milwaukee Brewers as favorites to win the NL Central, but the goal is a World Series, which might mean they need that little bit extra. What do you think, Brewer Fanatics? Are the Brewers set for the season ahead? Or can you see one more interesting signing to dream on? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below View full article

A prospect I'm incredibly excited for, that strong feel for spin with the amount of command he possesses currently is a fascinating combination, even more so if he can develop some movement characteristics on his fastball. Thanks for the piece!

Just to be clear, they're miles ahead. Cleveland guardians were second in ERA at 3.99 Their 3.62 FIP makes them the only team with a sub 4.00 number Half the innings of the Cardinal's drafters, but the quality is best in the league

"Manager" of baseball technologies my friend, she's going to be highly involved in some regard, though it's conjecture on both our parts at this point. Either way I hope we can agree that the new age advantage she brings could be very beneficial to the Brewers?

If you have a look through her twitter account, you'll see a lot of what she's been working with and using, and as mentioned above she got a role in the AFL as a coach this season off the back of things. It's not just passion, but I'd say the Brewers have hired someone because of their eye for detail as a coach and ability to improve hitters over a period of time. With that in mind, despite no specific instruction otherwise, I'd say it's safer to assume Gauci worked at a high level in Driveline edit: @wiguy94has got the details Edit 2: I'm addition to wiguys search, here are a list of some of the players using Driveline so far this offseason Working with major league regulars and stars, her input and knowledge will be a huge asset for what isn't a renowned strength of the brewers system in developing bats

I thinkthe important thing to remember is that being a good player isn't a mandate for being a good coach. There have been a lot over the years with just that résumé, but Gauci has worked in a really interesting role for a while with drive line and also has coaching experience with the Scottsdale scorpions in AFL this season. She's fresh and new, and honestly her passion for baseball seems to have filtered to those around her in her career so far. We're not asking Luisa to hit 100 mph fastballs out of the park, we're asking her to understand baseball mechanics and techniques and pass those onto the players. I will say in my experience of high level sports (none of which were baseball) I actually found the best coaches weren't ex players so often as students of the games they loved

This

I agree on all fronts, especially regarding corobo, plus quero has a great defensive profile, but also the pop in his bat can make him that plus major leaguer