Jake McKibbin

Chourio is still there! Another 3-5 night with a double and a stolen base in Aguilas 5-1 win. His batting average is up to .381 Carlos D Rodriguez and the Navegantes weren't in action

Well we got our answer .. that's so rough, I think most of all I just hate that woody is put in this position with this injury at this specific time. He didn't deserve that, but the Brewers can't be stupid with money because of emotions. It just can't work that way

Would you rather pay $20m with nothing remotely guaranteed performance wise?

I'm beginning to agree, even if he could play by July '23, that would make a huge difference but it's just not feasible, and likely a waste of money to do anything other than trade him

Woodruff did mention it's possible he's throwing again in June/July, so available down the stretch

Chourio went 3-5 in what could be his final game (original sources were 15 games, but some speculation it may be 20), including a stolen base and a double. If that is his final game, he's finished with a .362/.439/.517 line for a .956 OPS overall. with seven walks to seven strikeouts Carlos D Rodriguez went 2-5 also in Navegantes 12-1 win, raising his average to .298 and included a run scored and an RBI

Mayo is interesting, quality bat but I don't think he fits the Brewers, in part because he's sub par defensively at both first and third base

We could do, though maybe combining Adames with him would be rushed. Given I think the Brewers will have a shot in 2025/26, I think it makes a ton of sense to go 2 years with a big team option 3rd year, important. Definitely can't be stingy at negotiating table, but he's so so good when fit. And you can write off a short term contract like that easily, it's the extra years that hurt you

Woody will either sign a multiple year deal or be non tendered... What does everyone think is going to be the outcome?

It's been two and a half years since MLB tried to crack down on the sticky substances darkening pitchers' hands and firming up those hands' hold on the baseball. Corbin Burnes and his mind-boggling cutter were long suspected of being artificially enhanced that way. With his regression since the 2022 All-Star break, questions loomed. Now, however, it's time to prove once and for all that Spider Tack played no part in his success--something that should improve his value both in projected on-field performance next year, and on the hot stove. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports It's been two and a half years since MLB tried to crack down on the sticky substances darkening pitchers' hands and firming up those hands' hold on the baseball. Corbin Burnes and his mind-boggling cutter were long suspected of being artificially enhanced that way. With his regression since the 2022 All-Star break, questions loomed. Now, however, it's time to prove once and for all that Spider Tack played no part in his success--something that should improve his value both in projected on-field performance next year, and on the hot stove. Corbin Burnes is a top-tier, true ace of the rotation, having accumulated more than 200 strikeouts in each of the last three seasons. He pairs durability with the raw stuff of dreams. Grip enhancement or none, he is an outstanding pitcher and should be recognized as such. It’s not an open-and-shut case; there's certainly some ambiguity. However, it’s beginning to appear that Burnes’s success was not fueled by use of any illegal substance; the timelines don’t really match up. The Important Dates June 2021 - The initial crackdown Spin rates decreased quickly in June, but began to rebound as the season went on, particularly in September. That month, the average spin rate was 2,350 RPM, up from less than 2,250 RPM in July and August. It meant MLB had to do more to address the issue in 2022. They believed pitchers had found a way to circumvent checks later in the year, given the routine nature of the umpire’s checks April 2022 - The Updated Methodology New rules came in to begin 2022, allowing umpires to inspect more than just the glove, hat or belt, and instead inspect the pitcher's hand for any evidence of a stickier substance being there. It resulted in some protestations, but for the most part, it's cut down massively on the number of anomalies in the system and been key to evening the playing field. Did the crackdown work? In short, yes. Between Apr. 1, 2019 and May 31, 2021, there were 1,057 fastballs thrown with a spin rate of over 2,900 RPM. Over that time, the man notorious for many things (including his condemnation of pitchers using Spider Tack) Trevor Bauer led the league with 214 2,900+ RPM fastballs. From June 2021 through the start of 2023, this number dropped by 86 percent, to just 146 fastballs league-wide, and the league leader over that time is Trevor Rogers, with 12. It’s a stark contrast, and has resulted in a rise in batting average year on year, for the first time in decades. Corbin Burnes's Role in it All Burnes’s high-spin cutter, which pairs extreme velocity with above-average movement, has been devastating since he introduced it in 2020. He's demonstrated a supreme feel for spin that leavrs hitters confounded at the plate. It made sense why people would be suspicious of this unique offering coming as a result of Spider Tack. In line with the above dates mentioned, here are Burnes's split stat lines: Apr. 1, 2020-May 31, 2021: 2.21 ERA, 1.63 FIP, 13.75 K/9, 2.46 BB/9, 0.34 HR/9 Jun. 1, 2021-Sept. 30, 2021: 2.32 ERA, 1.73 FIP, 11.90 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, 0.32 HR/9 It’s clear to see that, after the initial crackdown during Burnes’s Cy Young year, there was hardly a dropoff at all. In fact, Burnes displayed improved command of his pitches. Given that there was a sag in MLB spin rates in June, July and August, you would expect some level of difference by this point. There was a decline in strikeout rate, but that could plausibly be more as a result of hitters getting a better look at his cutter and a better approach to it at the plate. Apr. 1, 2022-Jul. 15, 2022: 2.14 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 11.40 K/9, 2.30 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9 The underlying stats again show a total contempt for hitters. Burnes churned out quality start after quality start even amidst the extra attention to tacky substances. His home run rate did go up, and has been a concern for him in recent years, but that appears to be due more to his pitch mix, with everything working better down in the zone. It should be noted, too, that although his FIP increased substantially, he drastically outperformed his expected FIP in both 2020 and 2021, while he was actually slightly unlucky in 2022. Using these time periods, and his consistent performance throughout, it appears quite clear that Burnes was not enhancing his pitches illegally. However, if more evidence is needed, here are his spin rates compared to average: It’s all quite subtle, but his cutter actually moved more in 2022 than it did in 2021, and it’s also important to discount the 2019/2020 outliers (given the smaller sample sizes). There is a concern about the dropoff in 2023 that may be worth revisiting, but it should be noted that he also had a downtick in velocity in 2023 that marries up well with the reduced spin. In short, Burnes’s surface-level numbers, underlying performance metrics, and pitch movements demonstrate a consistency that belies the use of any unnatural substances to boost his performance. It means that he still has the Cy Young pitching ability in his arsenal, something he has shown in short spurts since the 2022 All-Star break. Knowing that he can still be the 2021 version of himself increases his value on the field and the trade market massively, and gives some enticing options to the Brewers front office. View full article

My bad, completely misread it, thought they were referring to him as a centerpiece for Burnes, evidently glanced over it! Certainly not calling people here stupid my friend, just an honest mistake

That's entirely fair, I actually didn't realise they were talking about him for Alonso too... it'll not happen, though I could see Morel being part of the equation.. I'm not saying he's not valuable, they're trying Morel at first I believe in winter leagues to get him some ability to get 500+ AB's per year, in which case he's a thirty home run guy with a large hole in his bat. Rowdy Tellez is kind of that already (I'm not saying he will be better 2024, but it is reasonable to call 2023 an outlier year for him). The Brewers will want middle infielders with bats, or starting pitching

It's actually the mention in the article rather than Matt's view! It also refers to Horton as potentially the best pitching prospect in baseball by next season

I'd also maybe disagree with this slightly given how much Horton developed towards the end of the season, especially his changeup. Six-seven years of Horton is fair in all likelihood, but the rivalry probably requires a little extra

I definitely can't see Morel being the center piece of this in any way mind, he's probably had a career year with that .821 OPS, but no defensive home limited him to just 1.2 WAR on the season. For Burnes, they'd need somewhere closer to top prospect capital, especially from the Cubs

Well this is fun having just written a handbook piece on it... the Cubs have a very intriguing farm system, and Horton is probably the jewel (for my money even more than PCA). I also wouldn't mind this trade at all if we got to raid their system, and Burnes left after a year, though that compensatory CBA pick would have to be factored into the deal value wise

Anderson intrigues me... he can hit, but it all depends on his mentality. The Brewers could be the perfect place to get more out of him however, it's a real 50/50 coin toss

Chourio with his first stolen base too, nabbing third. It almost seemed as if he wasn't being allowed to run

I feel the same way, I'm unsure if Mendez or Moore would make the big leagues, but they both have undeniable talent in there. Dunn does seem more big league ready at a level it's tough to see Mendez or Moore dominating next season. Dunn had his first full season in the minors last year and has shown burgeoning power coupled with a stroke to all fields, and quality defense (if not Turang level) at second base. I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see him kick on in Triple A and force an opportunity this year, but those strikeouts have to come down. Would be interesting to know if there were any specific pitches/strike zone areas he struggles with but I couldn't find any data on that unfortunately EDIT: Seems he has a particular issue with fastballs up and away from him. Apparently also has above average opposite field power, but also some varying reports now about the quality of his defensive acumen

This seems pretty apt, he does seem to be a late developer in a lot of ways, went very well with the Yankees Double A affiliate in 2022, Phillies acquired him in minor league rule V draft last season too. He's got the ability to drive a ball, and when he does connect it's good, however those strikeouts are worrying, and there wasn't much development in this area last season either. He does take his walks to mitigate a little, but biggest bonus is that as you say, he's not just a bat, he's above average defense at second base

Oliver Dunn is a breakout left-handed bat from the Phillies, playing second base and hitting .271 with 21 home runs, acquired in exchange for outfielder Hendry Mendez and infielder Robert Moore. Image courtesy of © Dave Nelson-USA TODAY Sports Oliver Dunn is a breakout left-handed bat from the Phillies, playing second base and hitting .271 with 21 home runs, acquired in exchange for outfielder Hendry Mendez and infielder Robert Moore. Oliver Dunn is coming off a season in which he has just won the breakthrough player award for Scottsdale in the Arizona Fall League, off the back of a year in which he slashed .271/.396/.506 for the Phillies Double-A affiliate. A patient bat results in a 27.5% strikeout rate, which will need to improve, but he's a high-end lottery ticket with a bat that could take off. Robert Moore and Hendry Mendez struggled in 2023, Moore with both bat and glove and Mendez regarding his power. Mendez is just 20 and could still grow into his potential, but the Brewers will feel they've gotten the better end of this transaction. The Brewers got into this deal due to the impending deadline for the Rule 5 draft, and the Phillies expected to lose Dunn at that point anyway, so both sides will be happy with what they've obtained. Dunn's profile has developed massively. However, it's important to note that at 25, he was old for Double-A and playing in a hitter-friendly park in Philadelphia. Keith Law, upon seeing him in the AFL, said, "All I saw Dunn do was hit, run, and work the count." He's competent at second base, with a smattering of time at third base, shortstop, and left field since turning professional, on top of being an above-average runner. His contact issues are concerning, and it remains to be seen if the Brewers see something they can work on in this area. He has power and a good eye at the plate with solid defensive chops. There's a lot to like here. On the other side of the coin, shortstop Robert Moore, the 72nd pick in 2022 with smooth fielding actions, never quite loved up to his potential in a Brewers uniform, albeit there is undeniable talent there. For someone of his speed, he is caught on the basepaths a little too often and recorded a .682 OPS in 123 games at High A Wisconsin, showing flashes of excellence with the glove but just not making the type of contact he or the Brewers hoped for. Mendez has potential, too, but he is another player the Brewers may have been hoping for more from by age 20. Currently playing in the winter leagues, Mendez got off to a hot start with the Brewers in the DSL but hasn't had an OPS over .700 since he came stateside in 2022. There would have been hope for him to progress on his five home runs as a 19-year-old in 2022, but he regressed in the power department. It's possible the Brewers saw both of these prospects struggling in double-A next year and figured they could get a long shot at a position where they would love a competent bat. We at Brewer Fanatic wish them all the best in their future careers and are incredibly excited to see what Oliver Dunn can do in Nashville and maybe Milwaukee next season. Law also said of Dunn at the Phillies: "I think they've got a big leaguer." View full article

The Brewers' top prospect is making some loud noise in one of the world's top winter leagues. More than ever, it feels like the team's 2024 hopes depend substantially on him, so this is worth close watching. Image courtesy of © Curt Hogg / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK The Brewers' top prospect is making some loud noise in one of the world's top winter leagues. More than ever, it feels like the team's 2024 hopes depend substantially on him, so this is worth close watching. Jackson Chourio is playing against professionals in a league generally compared to being similar to Triple A, but it doesn’t seem like anyone told him. Over his last eight games he's slashing an astounding .526/.697/1.223 and has shown exactly what Milwaukee can dream of next season. Alongside him, there are several other notable performances from Brewers prospects, one of whom may also be on the fringes of the 40-man roster next season. Chourio’s appearance this offseason was something of a surprise, given his full-season escapades in the Brewers minor leagues this year, and with very little to prove. As a youngster aged just 17 and 18, he played for Águilas del Zulia, so it stands to reason he may have pushed this to the Brewers front office, who permitted him to play 15 games for them. Here’s how he’s been getting on: The 12 Games So Far After a relatively unlucky start wherein he had just three hits across his first four games (all of which came in his debut), Chourio looked a bit weary. Many could be forgiven for thinking the rigors of a long season, combined with an experienced veteran league in which he struggled last season, would make this a tough ask. Laughing in the face of this thought, he’s currently sporting a 1.037 OPS, with just five strikeouts in 53 plate appearances. He's approaching a .500 on-base percentage. It’s truly remarkable, especially when you consider that, after a jaw-dropping 2022 season, Chourio hit just .256/.291/.354 last year in 21 games. This is not an easy league, and it shows just how much Chourio has improved in terms of his strike zone coverage. Last night’s game was, perhaps, his most raucous so far, as he went 3-5 with a double (smoked down the left-field line) and a triple whammed to the opposite field, highlighting both his plus-plus speed and the supreme bat speed that makes him such a coveted prospect. His athleticism just bursts off the screen. Here's another double in which every inch of his speed was needed: His power has been sufficient to clear the fences, too. To wit: a frozen rope that got out of here in a hurry: Are there any drawbacks? There have been some continuances from the regular minor-league season, in that (for all the incredible exit velocities) Chourio’s power hasn’t come to the fore quite so much as one would expect, with an ISO of .174 and five extra-base hits in total. It’s not to be sniffed at, but the propensity to chase pitches he can’t do damage on early and make poorer contact or hit ground balls seems to have migrated south with him. However, it should be noted that four of the extra-base hits have come in his last five games. He can elevate the ball with authority and regularity, it’s merely a pitch selection issue, which hopefully he can resolve quickly. He also doesn’t seem to have been permitted to steal bases--understandable, from the Brewers perspective, given the number of freak injuries they had on the basepaths this season (Keston Hiura, Garrett Mitchell, and Sal Frelick, to name but a few). Chourio has been a human highlight reel, and it’s uncertain at this point whether that will be played out over 15 or 20 games. That may be the biggest drawback: that he can't play more games down in Venezuela. More extra-base power would just add fuel to the fire, but in reality all you’d hope for is to finish his time unscathed and injury-free, with an offseason to further develop physically. At just 19 years old and listed at just 165 pounds, he has a lot of growth to come in this regard. Who else has been on show from the Brewers? Carlos D Rodriguez - .303/.411/.368 Rodriguez has continued where he left off in the minors, showing incredible bat-to-ball skills over his 19 games for Navegantes, and also some premium center-field defense, including a sensational catch to rob Chourio of extra bases earlier last week. The question (as always) with him is whether or not he can show more power, which at age 22 and just 5-foot-8 may be a pipe dream at this point. He can use his speed to leg out doubles and triples on occasion, and does have four extra-base hits so far in Venezuela, as well as 13 walks to just seven strikeouts. The Brewers eschewed their chance to add Rodríguez to the 40-man roster and protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, adding only Jeferson Quero and Bradley Blalock. The deadline isn't until Tuesday at 5 PM Central, though, so maybe Rodríguez will either be added at the last second or traded to a team who is willing to take that step and put him on their 40-man list. Hedbert Perez - .222/.222/.222 Injury curtailed Pérez just as he started to show some signs of accessing the power that made him a much-hyped prospect two years ago. At just 20 years old, he has significant strikeout worries, but has only gone down once so far in nine plate appearances. He showed up late, hence a relatively small sample size, but that represents a promising development for a player with a career ponche rate of significantly over 30 percent. His first start came on Sunday evening, and he recorded two hits from his five at-bats. Hopefully, he'll garner more playing time as the Venezuelan league comes to its conclusion. Does Chourio's outburst have you even more excited for his 2024 debut? It's hard to tell how much winter league success matters, but this can't be a bad thing. View full article