Jake McKibbin

He also seems to be someone who thrives on the big moments... he just finds a way to impact important games Also important to note that while Joey Wiemer is exceptional in Center Field, as is Blake Perkins... Mitchell is a step up again, he's Brenton Doyle levels of outfield coverage

When he's been healthy this year, Christian Yelich has found his way to being a dominant presence again. Is he truly healthy now? And how impactful can he be in the postseason? Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Brewer Fanatic Any successful October offense needs a leader--the man who delivers the big hit or just forces the opposing pitching staff into the stretch seemingly every time he comes up. The Brewers' highest-paid player is that kind of guy, when he's right. The question is whether he will be. What He Can Do During the months of June and July, the Brewers were treated to a taste--a timely reminder--of just what Christian Yelich can provide. He steadily improved throughout the spring, before taking off in the summer. Across his 228 plate appearances from June 1 through the end of July, Yelich hit nine home runs, 18 doubles, and a triple, and got on base at a .403 clip. More impressive was that he struck out just 13 times in all of July, abandoning his patience early in the count and instead looking to strike early in the count, a habit that has been sorely missing in recent seasons. One common denominator among Yelich’s more successful seasons has been how often he swings at the first pitch. This year's mark in that category is the highest it’s been since 2019 (26.5% in 2023, 21.7% in 2022). In June and July, this translated to a .559 slugging percentage, in other words Yelich wasn’t looking to walk, he went to the plate to do damage. As @Tim Muma wrote last week, the Brewers have an issue with the long ball and extra-base power, with many players capable of playing scrappy baseball and getting on base at effective clipsL Mark Canha (.388 OBP), Sal Frelick (.357), and William Contreras (.366 OBP). Even Willy Adames has a .367 on-base rate in September. In short, the Brewers can put men on base, but they’re missing that premium bat that can clear the bases with one blow. Yelich can provide that and more, a bat capable of producing a 1.000+ OPS in a hot month. He can carry this team on his shoulders. To demonstrate this, in his return on Friday night from a back ailment that may have been restricting him since early August, Yelich showed exactly what he could do, culminating in a 16-run explosion for the Brewers. He walked in his second plate appearance of the game, then smashed a two-run home run to left field, before a 106.4-mph double to left field and a 106.8-mph, 430-foot, three-run blast to center field. In total, over the weekend, he tallied six hits, two doubles, and two home runs. It was almost as if August never happened. Is He Truly Healthy? After his red-hot July, Yelich struggled mightily in August, slugging just .324 and posting an OPS of .676. As always, he adjusted and found his way on base at an above-average rate, but even so, he wasn’t the player of earlier in the season. In large part, this was due to the underlying back injury, which prompted him to change his setup at the plate to compensate. Yelich’s ground-ball tendencies do give him some room for BABIP fortune and misfortune, but one thing that has always stayed consistent with him is his ability to crush the ball, even if it is into the ground. In August, however, his average exit velocity dipped from 94.4 mph in July to 86.3 mph, and continued in early September. For reference, here’s his average exit velocity by month this season: It's important to note that the Baseball Savant page has its dates slightly mixed up, with the last two figures being August and September, but it’s a noticeable drop-off. The length of time he was afforded to get healthy again seems to have paid dividends, with Tyrone Taylor’s form allowing them the breathing room to get Yelich right. Here are his exit velocities from the weekend: 77.6 mph 103.6 mph 106.8 mph 106.4 mph 79.3 mph 61.3 mph 103 mph 70.6 mph 102.7 mph Five of his nine balls in pay were hit at over 102 miles per hour, and while he’ll still be refining his comfort and approach at the plate after a few weeks off, the fact that he’s crushing the ball again is a great sign for Yelich moving forward--particularly given that he’s been getting some air under the ball, too. For more evidence, Yelich's 1,500th hit involved him beating out a ground ball to first base, with a sprint speed of 30.1 feet per second. Elite speeds like that do not happen with a bad back. He’ll see more time against the Cardinals, and (hopefully) push the Brewers to another NL Central title in the process, but all eyes are on the postseason now. With the metronomic hitting machine that is William Contreras; the bat-to-ball skills of Canha and Frelick, and the potential power bats of Adames, Santana and Donaldson, this lineup has a playoff appearance to it when you add a fit and firing Yelich. Where to Play Him Although it may be tempting to have him migrate down the batting order to drive in runs (particularly given Sal Frelick’s level of success), having Yelich leading off brings a number of advantages. Having a power hitter at the top of the order means that the lower part of the order, such as the on-fire Donaldson and Taylor and the much less dangerous Brice Turang, will be getting more pitches to hit, with pitchers wary of having men on with the experienced Yelich coming up. Frelick, however, needs no such advantage, with an ability to get on base whether you pitch to him or not. The biggest advantage, however, might be that Yelich’s hard grounders can be ideal for double plays if he comes up with runners on base. It’s been a killer at times for the Brewers offense over the last two months, where they lead the league in twin killings. I’m not a big advocate for lineup construction mattering a whole lot, but in the playoffs, you want your best hitters taking as many at bats as possible (Yelich and Contreras), and the leadoff spot avoids at least one double play opportunity for him. He’s back to mashing the ball, and one month of the Yelich seen from July would make the Brewers a truly formidable offense, with eight effective hitters capable of causing problems, and several power hitters that can turn a game with one swing of the bat. He's recovered the upright stance that deserted him while compensating for his back injury. Yelich isn’t here to take part. He’s here to take over. Brewers fans should be getting incredibly excited for what’s to come. View full article

The Results didn't show it, but he did start massacring a few more balls at Nashville towards the end of his stint. More frequent hard contact

Teaseeeee

Also he's been caught 13 times, and statcast has him with a baserunning value of 0 due to some of the more idiotic steal attempts. That doesn't account for all the induced errors from the fielding side though, but yeah he's been chancing his arm a lot and it's paid off

I did an above piece on it earlier in the year, it's a really difficult surgery in terms of the recovery process because of the intricacy of the muscle fibres. The key thing will be if he still has the stuff by the start of next year. If not, he'll have to become markedly better with his control to survive in the big leagues. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes from 97-98 top speed down to 93-94, but we'll not know for another six month. It's extraordinary he's pitching at all right now

Also didn't Burger pick up a knock recently? If you want sad, take a look at the injury list they have, it's truly horrific

Joey Wiemer with another two hard hit balls tonight out of four plate appearances. I'd argue he's looked significantly better than Mitchell if the postseason started tomorrow

Yikes.. this may hurt them Marlins have so many injuries right now or that'd help The Reds can't seem to build momentum. But that final week of games for Chicago could be tight, especially against I'm guessing the Braves frontline starters? They may also give them more innings because of the length of break between then and the NLDS

The Brewers look set for the playoffs, and highly likely to take the NL Central title. The Diamondbacks have shown they can beat just about anyone, with sporadic hot streaks over the last two months. Should the Brewers beware the cornered snake? Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Brewer Fanatic The Milwaukee Brewers should claim the third seed in the playoffs, with a six-game lead over the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds with just 12 games remaining. Thus, let’s take a look forward at a potential Wild Card Series opponent in the Diamondbacks, who have revived their fortunes of late--after a terrible run across July and August saw them lose what was momentarily a comfortable division lead. Who’s in Form? Brewers Since the Aug. 1 trade deadline, the Brewers are 27-16 (a 101-win pace over a full season), all without extreme luck playing a part. The lineup upgrades (in the form of Mark Canha, Sal Frelick and Carlos Santana) have covered for the hampered Christian Yelich, while providing a solidity and on-base nous that has translated to scoring almost an extra run per game. The offense can fluctuate at times due to a lot of ground balls, but the regularity with which balls have been put in play has been a recipe for success, alongside the pitching contributions. Meanwhile, since the return of Brandon Woodruff, the head of Milwaukee’s rotation has been as powerful as they come, with Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta finding their straps en route to winning July and August NL Pitcher of the Month awards (with Woodruff the dominant pitcher so far in September). Diamondbacks The Diamondbacks have found a winning formula again, going 10-5 in September, but they will have concerns. Zac Gallen has been as Jekyll-and-Hyde as they come, with a 4.24 ERA since the trade deadline. He followed up a shutout of the Cubs with giving up seven runs (six earned) in five innings against the Mets. Merrill Kelly has pitched to a 3.80 ERA over that span, and Brandon Pfaadt has found some form to at least give them the makings of a sturdy playoff rotation. Offensively, however, they have been one of the most entertaining teams to watch this season, with Corbin Carroll leading the charge for Rookie of the Year, and Gabriel Moreno getting red-hot since the All-Star break, alongside solid contributions from other key players in the lineup. This is an offense that can score in a multitude of ways, able to hit the long ball or grind you down by scratching runs across in any way necessary. Players to Watch Corbin Carroll With 21 stolen bases since the break alone, Carroll remains a threat. His power numbers have dwindled from his early-season prominence, but he has found a way to set a platform and get runs across, scoring 41 times in his last 59 games. He has six doubles, six triples and six home runs in that span, and the Brewers' outfield defense would need to be at its best to nullify his gap-to-gap power. Gabriel Moreno Moreno has seen fit to carry this offense out of its slump, with a .333/.394/.576 slash line since his return from the IL on Aug. 13. He's been getting on base and hitting like a machine. On top of this, he leads baseball in “caught stealing above average”, as well as being in the 90th percentile blocking pitches. His framing isn’t standout, but he has been mighty impressive for the Diamondbacks of late. Likely Starting Matchups (on recent form) Game One Corbin Burnes vs Zac Gallen As mentioned earlier, Gallen has struggled mightily with the consistency he showed earlier in the year, with two separate stretches off 44 1/3 innings and 28 innings scoreless. For a pitcher who is renowned for having both excellent stuff and command, the latter has waned of late. Gallen's not quite locating, and struggling to sequence his pitches to great effect. That being said, he holds a 1.75 ERA with 44 strikeouts in six career appearances against the Brewers, including seven innings of one-run ball against them in June. An odd stat this season is how his performance has differed home and away, with a 2.18 ERA at home compared to 4.68 ERA on the road. Burnes, on the other hand, has been as mercurial as they come, which may be no bad thing for Game 1. He could light up the Diamondbacks hitters, or crumble to a big inning, with another twist being who the Brewers have catching Burnes, with Caratini as his personal catcher most of the year, but a recent dalliance with Contreras behind the plate may suggest they want to use their DH slot for a more proficient offensive player, such as Canha. Game Two Brandon Woodruff vs Merrill Kelly Kelly has been a horse for the D’Backs this season, with his signature changeup ranked as the best offspeed pitch in the major leagues in terms of defensive run value, per Statcast. Hitters are hitting just .170 and slugging .222 against it. He has a genuine six-pitch arsenal, all of which are effective and used regularly, making him difficult to read and attack in any count, producing a well-deserved 3.45 ERA on the season. He has outperformed his expected numbers fairly significantly, but his increase in strikeout rate this season has enabled him to get out of jams with more regularity, he could be a very tough opponent on his day. Game Three Freddy Peralta vs Brandon Pfaadt Pfaadt has been getting over what was a really rough start to the year by producing a 4.20 ERA in September. His xwOBA since Aug. 1 has been roughly league-average, with his biggest weakness a four-seam fastball that’s been hit hard all year long--to the tune of a .322/.638 AVG/SLG line--and generating very little swing-and-miss. He balances this out with an exceptional sweeper that’s done a lot of damage. Hitters have just a .159/.292 line against that offering, so you can see how important pitch recognition will be for the Brewers should they face up against him. Pick the fastball and you’ll do damage. It might be irrelevant, however, given just how dominant Peralta has been through August and September--perhaps the best pitcher out of the three aces the Brewers have of late. No playoff matchup is a given, but this is certainly one the Brewers may fancy. Summary While the Diamondbacks hold a 4-2 record over the Brewers this year, these wins all happened before the Brewers solidified their lineup and became an actual threat with the bats, and before the three-headed monster that is their rotation hit its stride. This seems to be an entirely different beast, and it’s hard not to make the Brewers favorites. That being said, the Diamondbacks offense can score runs against anybody, and it makes for an incredibly intriguing series. The form of Gallen and Kelly would play big parts in it, and as always, winning game one may be crucial to the final outcome. One extra factor to note is that if Gallen or Kelly need to be used in the final games of the season, it could push back their availability for the postseason with only one day off between game 162 and the start of the playoffs, whereas the Brewers should have theirs lined up and well-rested. View full article

The really nice thing to is if it comes down to the wire, Steele will pitch that last game, and potentially put him either on three days rest when he's starting to flag already, or maybe out altogether. It could be that way with whoever gets the 6th WC spot

Mikolas fastballs have been getting completely crushed this year. Let's hope that continues! None of his pitches have been particularly successful, but he's a horse with a good day in him. Sure would be nice to keep the momentum going

The Brewers are a different team since the trade deadline, and have every bit the opportunity that the Braves and Dodgers do to reach the world series, and win it all. Here's why you should be incredibly excited about this team. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Brewer Fanatic The Brewers season necessitates a split into two separate factions before and after the trade deadline due to the vast difference in form and consistency. In the early part of the year, regular at-bats were taken by injured and under-performing personnel, with Jesse Winker (60 OPS+), Joey Wiemer (57 OPS+ against right-handed pitching), an injured Tyrone Taylor (15 OPS+ in the first half), an injured Rowdy Tellez (23 OPS+ in June, -48 OPS+ in July), the list goes on. That’s not even considering the pitching, where Corbin Burnes pitched to a solid, if unspectacular, 3.94 ERA in the first half of the season, while Freddy Peralta had an astounding 4.70 ERA. The reason Milwaukee was anywhere near the position they were was due to the incredible bullpen, in particular Wilson, Milner, Peguero, Payamps, and Williams, alongside astounding performances from unlikely places such as Owen Miller in May or Julio Teheran and Colin Rea through May and June. They gritted their teeth and ground out wins without any real offense to speak of, and with reinforcements, have become the best version of this team. Since the trade deadline, the Brewers are on a 100-win pace, and it’s tough to question the longevity of their changes. Let’s look at why their changes will continue to have success through the end of the season and into the playoffs. Pitching Staff Corbin Burnes In June, Burnes was tweaking his arsenal and grips to try and sort out an issue he had with right-handed hitters, specifically that his slider and cutter were too similar. He redefined the slider into more of a sweeper, which pairs better with his cutter's profile while also tweaking his grips to increase the spin he was getting, and thus the movement on both his sinker and his curveball, resulting in an extra five inches of drop on his signature breaking pitch while drastically increasing the effectiveness of his fastball alternative (which had been cannon fodder over the last two years). As a result, he’s been achieving exactly what he lacked at the start of the year: strikeouts while allowing variation with the fastball that increases the productivity of his cutter. Here are his swing and miss rates in June compared to August: Slider – 38.5% to 42.1% Curveball – 50% to 69.7% Sinker – 10% to 31.3% He still isn’t generating the swing-and-miss rates of old with his cutter, but the addition of a pitch that has contrasting movement to his cutter in the sinker, combined with the increased effectiveness of both his slider and his curveball, has led him back to a true ace, with even further potential to unlock. To highlight the turnaround, hitters didn’t hit over 0.091 against his curveball or his slider in either July or August, and it’s something I would expect to see him use even more in a playoff series, perhaps using fewer changeups, which have been struggling more of late. Either way, this is not the version of Burnes you would want to face in a playoff series. Freddy Peralta Freddy has been perhaps even more of a stud than Burnes, taking home August’s pitcher of the month by tweaking his pitch mix. His changeup has been deadly over the last two months, increasing usage from 10.4% in June to 22.6% in September. However, his real point of difference is his location and command of his arsenal; his biggest issue was wasting uncompetitive pitches, particularly his breaking pitches, and hitters could sit on his fastball. Not so anymore, and it’s brought about improved performance against his signature pitch; his fastball has a batting average of just .140 in August and 0.091 so far in September. The Brewers spoke in July after the Braves series of Peralta’s personality not showing in his pitching, resulting in tension when the big moments came around. Since then, he’s been devastating, working around traffic on occasion, and with hitters struggling even to put the ball in play, he has 12.7 K/9 since the start of August. It beggars belief this is the Brewers' THIRD starter in a playoff series. Returns & Additions Just when it seemed Rea and Teheran were flagging, Wade Miley and Brandon Woodruff returned from the IL and have been at the top of their games, with Woodruff looking odds on for a third Brewers NL pitcher of the month award in three months, an ERA on the season of 1.89 and a walk rate of just 5.7%. Nothing in his underlying metrics hints at his dominance waning any time soon. At the same time, Miley has been exactly as advertised, pitching a 3.38 ERA, not letting hitters make quality contact against him, and letting his defense make the plays behind him. Should that be needed, he’s a stalwart and a potential starter in a five-game series. The back end of the bullpen was a huge struggle earlier in the year, blowing up any chance of holding a game close down the stretch with a myriad of failures from Gus Varland, Javy Guerra, and Matt Bush. The Brewers have promoted from within and found several gems, such as Peguero earlier in the year and, more recently, Abner Uribe. Why have a back end of the bullpen when you can bring up a reliever with closer potential? Uribe has made a cacophony of established major leaguers look ridiculous chasing his slider and electric two-seam fastball, getting valuable outs and shutdown innings in various situations when Counsell needed him. Uribe has already attained 1.1 WAR on the season with a 1.29 ERA and 34 strikeouts in his 28 innings. The Offense As mentioned earlier, a lot of holes needed to be filled in this lineup, and they have been. With above-average contributions and on-base rates of Mark Canha (.400 OBP), Sal Frelick (.372 OBP) combined with the switch-hitting slugging ability of Carlos Santana, and the return to form of Tyrone Taylor, who has altered his swing path and is reaping the rewards, this is a lineup that is set to put men on base throughout a series consistently, and need only a little luck timing wise to drive those runs in. It’s not an offense to fear per se, not without a red-hot Christian Yelich in his July form. However, it can put runs on the board and let the pitching staff do the work. Since the all-star break, the Brewers are 17th in OPS (they were 25th before the break), ranking 8th in minimizing strikeouts and 12th in on-base percentage. They may not do a lot of damage, but it’s important to note that they don't need to with that pitching staff. They lead the league in double plays but have averaged over a run per game more than they managed pre-trade deadline, from 4.15 to 5.16. If a team can scratch five runs across each game in the playoffs with that starting rotation, they’ll be fancying their chances. On top of that, it’s without a firing Christian Yelich, who is currently out of the lineup with a recurring back injury after a monumental MVP-level July. One big thing to note is how effective the Brewers have been against the better pitchers in MLB, dragging out at-bats, chewing them up, grinding them down, and spitting them out of the game early. Here’s how some of the better pitchers have fared: Max Scherzer – 3.2 innings, 98 pitches, Three Earned Runs Dane Dunning – Five innings, Seven Hits, Three Earned Runs Bailey Ober – Five Innings, Two Earned Runs Yu Darvish – Four Innings, 76 Pitches, Five Earned Runs Michael Wacha (2.84 ERA on the season) – 5.1 innings, 97 pitches, Four Earned Runs Eury Perez – 4.2 innings, Three Earned Runs Jesus Luzardo – Five innings, ten hits, Six Earned Runs Barring external factors such as Wrigley Field wind and absurd strike zones/Angel Hernandez, the Brewers' offense has consistently done damage against the best pitchers around, none of those mentioned above even finishing the sixth inning. They may not be the Braves behemoth, but they will score runs, something that cannot be labeled of the recent 2021 team who crumpled at any remote quality in the opposing pitcher. And if you can add an unhindered Yelich to that lineup, the complexion of danger it exudes increases even further. They have potentially the best three starters in baseball. They have an offense that can keep the runs ticking over. They have a shutdown bullpen. Everything is needed for a deep run if they can garner a little luck here and there, with a team that is on a 100-win pace since being put together. There might not be another team with this much potential for quite some time. View full article

These have been so fun to read each morning, many thanks @Joseph Zarr

He'll need to be on his game for sure... if you can shut down the Astros though, then you can keep a lid on St Louis, he's a good pitcher still, hopefully the infield defense comes up rosy

The lefties they've had can be an issue, plus how difficult it is to get Goldy to hit the ball on the ground. If Gorman is injured that definitely helps

I can't like this enough... that's really interesting

I feel like the point of language is to convey ones intended meaning. As such I think both ways are coherent and acceptably written ways of producing the same desired effect

It actually wasn't that bad a game, barely any strikeouts, lots of balls in play, just not the right kind at times, couldn't get it to fall. Play that game nine times and the Brewers win, but credit where it's due to Wainwright who was really locating well unlike earlier in the year. It happens, go again and see if you can spank the crappy lefty around tonight

Currently 56 votes so far

It's genuinely baffling how that Cards lineup has scored just twenty odd runs more than the Brewers this season

The K rate is such an improvement, intriguingly his last development is knowing when not to make contact, IE which pitches he can do damage on rather than merely put in play... very excited to see him, Mitchell and Wiemer in a AAA outfield, holy smokes