Jake McKibbin

The Brewers' star shortstop is mired in a deep offensive funk. It's their lineup's biggest problem right now. There might just be light at the end of the tunnel, though. Image courtesy of © Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports Willy Adames is hitting .205/.290/.386 in 2023, which would be okay for a shortstop with his defensive range and arm. However, statistically, he has been one of the unluckiest baseball players on the planet over the last month or so. Here’s why; Save for a short stretch before the All-Star break where we got a glimpse of the streaky, powerful hitter Adames can be, his results just have not been there this season: no real hot stretches where he’s carried the offense, none of the big numbers he has traditionally put up with men on base. He’s always been a totally different hitter in the big moments, but that just hasn’t been the case this year, hitting .202/.276/.393 with runners in scoring position. However, over the last month, he has been a significantly different hitter, and he's been incredibly unlucky about the results it’s produced. First, let’s clarify, he is hitting the ball softer than he did last season, he is whiffing too often and was basically showing us his floor up until June. That being said, here are what the underlying metrics say about his ability to hit the ball in just the wrong spot: The yellow highlight is the current season. You can see that he’s finding optimal launch angles roughly the same as he did in 2021 and in 2022, with an expected batting average (xBA) of .237 and an expected slugging (xSLG) of .439, remarkably similar to his 2021 numbers. His expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA, the number that estimates overall offensive value expected based on quality of contact) is higher than each of his previous two years, while he’s significantly improved his walk rate this season. By his expected metrics, he’s projected to have had a .237/.332/.439 slash line. Recently, however, he’s been even better, particularly against fastballs. The results just don’t show it. Here are his numbers for July (let’s ignore the small sample size that is August so far): He had a line of .161/.339 against fastballs, instead of the expected numbers of .277/.514, a massive difference, and one that could have swung a few of the many tight games the Brewers played in July in their direction. His exit velocities since the start of the season have risen steadily, and last month against breaking balls and fastballs he averaged 88 mph, more in line with his historic numbers, though he has struggled mightily with offspeed pitches this season. A big leap has been the number of fastballs he’s attacked in the zone, he went for just 58.5% of these fastballs in June, but in July that number rose to 80%, as well as having a rip at 83% of in-zone breaking pitches. This has corresponded with no real change in his chase rates, suggesting he’s feeling a lot better about himself at the plate, and is looking to do damage. Finally, he considerably lowered his swing and miss rates on each pitch type: Breaking Balls – 43% down to 36.8% Offspeed – 42.3% down to 32.1% Fastballs – 21.3% to 18.8% It may not seem like it based on the results, but Adames is not the struggling hitter we saw in May and June. He’s primed for a hot finish to the year. Can he get some of the luck that’s evaded him so far this season? View full article

You think the NL central won't have a wildcard?

Only two men on base through five innings for brewers did, predictably demetrio Nadal is one of them but he was caught stealing for the fifth time this season

Meanwhile Di Turi and Co are currently being mowed down by the Giants starter Ankeily Feliz, 4 strikeouts through the first two innings

Tovar walks, Yophery Rodriguez with an early double and Brian Sanchez with the RBI against Dodgers Baja 32-8 team to tie the game 1-1 Rodriguez attempted to get to third on the sac fly but was tagged out, yet another out on the basepaths for the young man Suarez has 3 K's through two innings, and bar an early Tovar fielding error would be scoreless

This thread will be utilized for any minor league news Friday, lineup updates, etc.Organizational Scoreboard including starting pitcher info, game times, MiLB TV links, and box scores

The Brewers have a strong chance to win their division, or at the very least snag a Wild Card. Did the other NL contenders go big at the deadline to impact these chances? Image courtesy of © Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports Currently, FanGraphs lists the Brewers as having a 70.2% chance to get into the playoffs, with a 59.1% chance of winning the division. The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds are hot on their tail inside the division, however, with the Cubs in particular on a scorching run. Outside of this, the Philadelphia Phillies have been on a strong run since mid-May after a slow start to the season, almost identical to the San Francisco Giants, who have just pushed aside the Diamondbacks for a Wild Card berth (for the time being). The Marlins have, sneakily, been performing very well in the NL East, while the Padres are looking to come in under the radar too. Let’s check in on how these clubs fared at the deadline. Cincinnati Reds Having had one of the hottest offenses in baseball, as well as the potential returns of Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, it was expected that with their vaunted farm system the Reds could make some big splashes at the deadline. Rumors of trading Jonathan India for a controllable starting pitcher faded to the wayside, and instead all they added was Sam Moll, a lefty reliever from Oakland. The offense was statistically overperforming their real talent over a two-month stretch, but even so, they had a real shot to grab hold of this division. Instead, they’re playing with what they’ve got and looking toward many more bites at the apple in the future, whilst hoping they have enough to sneak in this season. With so many rookies in their lineup, and the likes of Noelvi Marte pushing in Triple A, they’re well set up for sustained success. They’ve been caught cold by the Cubs, losing a series 3-1 against their division rivals who invested more strongly, and may regret down the line that they didn’t go harder here. Chicago Cubs A hot run of form leading up to the deadline (including winning eight straight games), as well as a front office that needs to show something from this season, changed the Cubs from sellers to buyers, from being 43-50 on July 17 to 56-53 now. They acquired Jeimer Candelario, who promptly brought eight hits in his first nine at-bats while playing quality third base defense, a position at which the Cubs struggled to gain consistency. Candelario is a quality upgrade for a team that’s getting hot at just the right time, and makes their lineup (already formidable and pesky) even more so. The most important piece for the Cubs has been the resurgent Cody Bellinger, who was smoking in July, and if he can sustain this production, they’ll be expecting a playoff run at the end of the year. San Francisco Giants The Giants didn't do a whole lot at the deadline, adding slumping veteran outfielder AJ Pollock, while not adding anything to their starting pitching, which could do with additions, especially with the Diamondbacks young roster, and the sleeping giant that is the Padres. They lost a starter on Sunday, with Anthony DeSclafani picking up an elbow strain. They could be due for some regression in the next couple of months, but have placed themselves firmly in the hunt after taking a series against the Diamondbacks. FanGraphs gives them odds of 60.9% to grab a Wild Card berth, and an outside shot of overtaking the LA Dodgers. Arizona Diamondbacks The Diamondbacks had an interesting deadline, trading a reliever with more history of late-inning situations in Andrew Chafin for young, controllable, up-and-down Peter Strzelecki from the Brewers, while also shoring up their bullpen with star closer Paul Sewald from the Mariners, and the mercurial bat and personality of Tommy Pham from New York. The latter two additions could be a big boost, with a leaky bullpen one reason for their recent run of poor play. However, the next few weeks are absolutely crucial for a team that is struggling of late, going 8-16 in the month of July, and the offense and bullpen were to blame. San Diego Padres As unlikely as it seemed, the Padres were buyers at the deadline, acquiring Ji-Man Choi and Rich Hill from the Pirates; Garrett Cooper from the Marlins; and Scott Barlow, an elite closer at his best, from Kansas City. Hill should help them as a fifth starter and innings eater, which may be all that’s needed given the offense has found some consistency of late, with the likes of Blake Snell proving one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last couple of months. They’ve gone 18-10 over their last 28 games, and have a real outside shot, but haven’t quite gone all in (in part due to a depleted farm system keeping them away from the bigger trades). However, they are estimated to have a 46% chance of making the playoffs, and definitely shouldn’t be ruled out at this point in time. Philadelphia Phillies After the early struggles of Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber, at al., the batting lineup has heated up with threats up and down the order. Defense isn’t much valued in this organization at the moment--perhaps one reason for the struggles of some of their pitching staff, which was expected to be high-end with Taijuan Walker, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez and Wheeler. The addition of 2023 All-Star Michael Lorenzen has been a big help. He went eight innings in his first start, and fortifies the starting rotation massively. They also traded for the Pirates' Rodolfo Castro as a utility infielder, having designated Josh Harrison for assignment, not really a needle mover but certainly adding value over the lackluster Harrison. This is a lineup to watch out for, with Nick Castellanos, Turner, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, J.T. Realmuto and Schwarber’s power, and they’re highly likely to mash their way to a Wild Card spot this October. Miami Marlins In selling off Cooper to their playoff rivals the Padres, the Marlins made a small partner move, acquiring Josh Bell for Jean Segura and top prospect Kahlil Watson. They also got swingman Ryan Weathers, in the Cooper deal. The lineup had a need for power outside of Jorge Soler’s bat, and they’ll be hoping Bell can provide that with his xBA of .275 and xSlg of .460 so far on the year. His actual numbers are lower, potentially due to Cleveland’s large park, but even so, he could be exactly what the Marlins needed, and they’ve traded away a first-round prospect they used to have high hopes for to get him. Segura had struggled massively so far this year, with just a .556 OPS and poor defense. He just couldn’t be a part of a playoff roster, so this is a big upgrade offensively. To truly address their power shortage, though, Miami made a much bigger splash, trading for slugging infielder Jake Burger from the Chicago White Sox. Burger cost the Fish one of their prized pitching prospects, Jake Eder, but he will slot into the middle of their lineup and add the minatory power bat that was missing therefrom until now. All in all, there was a curious lack of movement from both the Giants and the Reds at the deadline, perhaps in part due to the lack of options available because of the expanded playoff format. Either may come to rue their decisions in what are tight divisions, while the Cubs, Padres and Phillies have addressed their weaknesses effectively. Current standings are: Giants – 61-49 Phillies – 59-50 (Brewers) – 59-51 Reds – 59-52 Marlins – 58-52 D’Backs – 57-53 Cubs – 56-53 Padres – 54-55 Who do you think is most likely to grab the three Wild Card slots? Did any of these teams vault themselves past the Brewers with their deadline activity? View full article

Maybe just rested, he's actually cooled off a little at the plate over the last week to 10 days from memory, so likely just an off day against a lefty. Given the injury issues elsewhere I'd hope it's not that I think barring injuries, he's not getting a call up now, though Maybe if two of the more regular DH's go down. That's the only scenario I can see after the additions the Brewers made to fortify that spot at the deadline, and with Tellez back in under two weeks

It'll be interesting with a relatively fresh faced rookie who's struggled with command so far can be taken apart by some patient Brewers at bats. The four seamer to left handers (His predominant fastball to southpaws) has been crunched so far, but certainly taking nothing for granted, as the Brewers have struggled this year against the more unknown pitchers. If Rea can avoid a long ball tonight, I'd expect a quality start, but he's struggled a little under pressure in that regard this season. I think he's pitched really well of late, just a little underlying confidence and belief in those bigger moments, or a little luck and he can hopefully give a good one

I was wondering if they'll option Colin Rea, though I think he's been really quite good as of late. His issue seems to be a mental one, he's regularly been good then been hammered for a home run with men on base. I could see them optioning Uribe potentially, though could also option Peguero I believe if they want to let him recover a bit given his innings workload and how he performed in July, then Houser to bullpen

There is some seriously smooth power in that swing too. It's almost Yelich like when he gets his pitch, though obviously Yelich can do it far more often. But it's a joy to watch those 400 ft pulled homers to right field

They sort of did... it's an interesting one, but they gave up a AA pitcher with high strikeouts, high walks, but the potential to be either a big reliever or a TOR starter IF (and that's key) he puts it together. And a defense first SS that's unlikely to go too far, but is solid enough The Brewers may have had to part with a high ceiling pitching prospect, and even then short of Misiorowski I'm not sure if Henderson is developed enough for them to use him as a headliner

With men on 1st and second, Rodriguez is struck out looking, but Brian Sanches comes through with a double to plate one, before a Holguin single and passed ball make it 4-0 Brewers in the top of the third. Flores has given up just two hits through 2.2 innings so far

Of course the Braves come back, with three hits, including a double scoring two runs and leading 3-1 in the top of the fifth

DSL Brewers Uno are continuing their game against the Braves, restarting at 1-1 in the third inning (Braves are still hitless interestingly) and Di Turi picks up where he left off, with a single but is stranded at second base Brewers Dos have the high flying LA Dodgers Baja team (32-7 record, wowza) with Yophery Rodriguez doubling in a run early doors, before a single from Brian Sanchez and Holguin result in... only one man left on base. Rodriguez was picked off at second base, sneaking too far, then Sanchez is caught stealing.

This thread, as we know, will be utilized for any minor league news Wednesday, lineup updates, etc.Organizational Scoreboard including starting pitcher info, game times, MiLB TV links, and box scores

Keller has a rough period pre all star break but has looked better since, and has been exceptional at limiting hard contact That being said this series is there for the taking with Priester coming up soon, probably a spot start to fill in for Rich Hill and the pirates having sold a fair bit. Stamp some authority on it now that the Brewers are home. Maybe Brian Anderson is good to go and start off like he started the season

It also depends on how much impact you expect a few of these players to have next year. If you had two plus bats added to this roster in Chourio and Black (assuming they do perform to the level they can do, particularly Chourio) then this lineup takes on a whole different look, with 4/5 players who can hurt you at the top of the order, along with a fit and firing rotation If not... then it makes sense to sell off

Having not watched a ton of games, where does Wes Clarke swing and miss a lot? has he got any hit tool that's developing or is it always going to hold him back? Looks like the potential of a slugging 1B in there with even an average hit tool, massive power

To add to that, Brian Anderson is a projected 86 WRC+ from steamer with 0.2 WAR, Andruw Monasterio with 85 WRC+ and 0.1 WAR Jimer Candelario is 106 WRC+ and 0.9 WAR Mark Canha is projected for 111 WRC+ with 0.5 WAR Tommy Pham is projected for 108 WRC+ on Steamer, though that surprised me given his underlying metrics being so strong, he's really pounding the ball this year. ZiPS has him at 101 WRC+ Obviously it depends more if these guys get hot or not, Canha was unlucky last night(as were the Brewer sin first two innings) with a ton of line drive outs. But the Candelario upgrade for even 1 win at this time of the year could be crucial

Adames is looking slightly better, and a fit Tellez I think can be a serious difference maker in this lineup What I tried to do was highlight different trades that actually didn't cost all that much, unlike the Rangers trading Luisangel Acuna for Max Scherzer for instance. The ones that interested me most were Pham, who was almost next to nothing, a lottery ticket, and Candelario, who's hit tool has been very good of late, including going 7/8 I think to start his Cubs career off, while also providing quality third base. He's more solid than Anderson has been, and better defensively than Monasterio who is due for regression. A signing like Candelario would have been toeing the line with the premium on the organisations pitching prospects (may even have required a Logan Henderson type + Robert Moore for instance), but he would have given you valuable production and consistency at the hot corner the Brewers haven't had all year, as well as moving that needle just slightly further around. I wouldn't have wanted Pham unless he's kept in solitary confinement in the clubhouse, but that bat is money

It's maybe a promotion in the meantime til Queros fit again

Phams potentially underpriced because of the toxic nature he can bring but he's probably the best performer on the list, and quite comfortably I think Frelick is sitting Vs lefties less because he struggles against them, and more to get him some days off here and there in his first stint with the big leagues, but that's just a hunch