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Jake McKibbin

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  1. How would you try to motivate him?Do you think playoffs etc and the prestige of success there? Could a firing Woodruff provide some inspiration and friendly competition? They did say that sort of approach between the pitchers was key to the success of Him, Freddy and Lauer in 2021
  2. Peterson is intersting today, had a 1.62 WHIP and 5.6 walks per nine in AAA, still striking out guys but a ton of contact otherwise. But he's a lefty coming up... still this might be negated by the fact you'll have actual scouting reports on him given he's been around a while. The Brewers are basically facing Eric Lauer here
  3. There is a possibility that the Blue Jays could be very fringey in the AL east by the time the deadline rolls around, with a mistimed run and given the strength of the AL East in combo with the surging Angels and Astros for wildcard spots What would give up to acquire him?
  4. I've been thinking the exact same thing
  5. Isn't this Bryce Wilson's role, and one he's excelling in as well? Do we need two long relievers? Especially as they're both used to maintain a deficit rather than be shutdown relievers
  6. So Verlander look see: Isn't getting much swing and miss, but is getting a lot of chases outside the zone. His fastball has been very hittable despite the high spin/decent velo with an average of almost 94 mph exit velocity, and his curveball has been hit more than usual this season too (again despite above average movement) Location wise, his off speed stuff is usually down and away to righties, and to lefties (Yelich's kryptonite in that zone) Big difference so far this season is the quality of contact which has been very very good so far, and even well located pitches have been hit well He's struggling to set things up with the fastball. He's throwing significantly less first pitch strikes compared to last season (62% down to 53.5%) so be patient, wait on that fastball, and CRUSH it
  7. I agree, I think working off two pitches is forcing him to work harder in counts, and having an extra pitch makes the main two that much more miss-able. Its something Freddy has struggled with, a lot of long AB's because he can't quite wipe them out That being said apparently he does have a change-up that below average and a curveball that should be developed well due to his ability to spin the ball well both on the fastball and slider He's some talent
  8. The Brewers' rotation is healthy enough to enjoy some stability, but it hasn't been the reliable group the team needs. Too many games are getting loose early, forcing the below-average lineup to produce at an above-average clip in order to win. Is a different fifth starter the answer to that problem? Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Colin Rea has been a serviceable pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers during their time of need, usually keeping things close enough that a decent offensive performance can grab the win. However, his statcast page is beginning to resemble Jason Alexander’s, with minimal chase rates, minimal whiffs, minimal curveball movement or fastball velocity. He has avoided barrels well enough to limit the damage, but he feels like a bomb waiting to explode, and he certainly can’t be credited with actively winning the Brewers games. Compare this to Adrian Houser, who was moved to the bullpen upon Wade Miley’s return. Since his last start on June 9, he’s made just two appearances, throwing four innings of relief in a game that had gotten away from the Brewers on June 19 and mopping up an inning against the Guardians Friday night. Houser has brought down his career-high line drive rate of 2022 (26.1% down to 21.3%) and increased his groundball rate back to 52.5%--not quite as effective as in his prime, but still able to generate a lot of weak grounders and cheap outs to a strong defense. He is in the 64th percentile for expected opponent slugging and walk rate, and 88th percentile for barrels, all key to his performance. When he himself returned from the injured list, Houser was using his four-seam fastball to left-handers with great effect, but it seems hitters have caught up to it now. They’re posting an average exit velocity of 97 miles per hour on it. However, Houser does still generate whiffs when he ties that heater in with his sinker. His changeup and slider have generated consistently weak contact, and his sinker has an average launch angle of 0 degrees, exactly what he would be hoping for. Have a look at the quality of contact against each of these pitchers: Houser Rea The most immediately noticeable stat is that Houser has a 2.8% solid contact rate, and 4.3% barrel rate, compared to Rea with 7% for each of those. Houser has limited hard and damaging contact much more effectively. Out of this alone, I cannot understand why Rea is getting more innings, with higher average leverage. Rea has gone through six innings just twice, and while he has the occasional gem, such as his eight-strikeout, five-inning shutdown of the Orioles earlier this month, he has also conceded at least three runs through five innings in his other three starts this month, for an ERA that is only rising as the league gets a good look at him. Houser did have a blowup start against the A’s, due mostly to walking hitters, something he hadn’t done much of so far this season. However, he has a track record of producing quality starts and being able to get on top of a lineup in a way that Rea just can’t. Houser does still struggle to corral left-handed batters, in particular with his command. He tries to use his sinker less against them, resulting in a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1:1, but given the lack of barrels and hard-hit balls against him, even walking the occasional lefty isn’t going to harm him often. Is Adrian Houser a perfect pitcher? No. Is he likely, over a five-game stretch, to give you better starts than Colin Rea? Unquestionably. View full article
  9. Colin Rea has been a serviceable pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers during their time of need, usually keeping things close enough that a decent offensive performance can grab the win. However, his statcast page is beginning to resemble Jason Alexander’s, with minimal chase rates, minimal whiffs, minimal curveball movement or fastball velocity. He has avoided barrels well enough to limit the damage, but he feels like a bomb waiting to explode, and he certainly can’t be credited with actively winning the Brewers games. Compare this to Adrian Houser, who was moved to the bullpen upon Wade Miley’s return. Since his last start on June 9, he’s made just two appearances, throwing four innings of relief in a game that had gotten away from the Brewers on June 19 and mopping up an inning against the Guardians Friday night. Houser has brought down his career-high line drive rate of 2022 (26.1% down to 21.3%) and increased his groundball rate back to 52.5%--not quite as effective as in his prime, but still able to generate a lot of weak grounders and cheap outs to a strong defense. He is in the 64th percentile for expected opponent slugging and walk rate, and 88th percentile for barrels, all key to his performance. When he himself returned from the injured list, Houser was using his four-seam fastball to left-handers with great effect, but it seems hitters have caught up to it now. They’re posting an average exit velocity of 97 miles per hour on it. However, Houser does still generate whiffs when he ties that heater in with his sinker. His changeup and slider have generated consistently weak contact, and his sinker has an average launch angle of 0 degrees, exactly what he would be hoping for. Have a look at the quality of contact against each of these pitchers: Houser Rea The most immediately noticeable stat is that Houser has a 2.8% solid contact rate, and 4.3% barrel rate, compared to Rea with 7% for each of those. Houser has limited hard and damaging contact much more effectively. Out of this alone, I cannot understand why Rea is getting more innings, with higher average leverage. Rea has gone through six innings just twice, and while he has the occasional gem, such as his eight-strikeout, five-inning shutdown of the Orioles earlier this month, he has also conceded at least three runs through five innings in his other three starts this month, for an ERA that is only rising as the league gets a good look at him. Houser did have a blowup start against the A’s, due mostly to walking hitters, something he hadn’t done much of so far this season. However, he has a track record of producing quality starts and being able to get on top of a lineup in a way that Rea just can’t. Houser does still struggle to corral left-handed batters, in particular with his command. He tries to use his sinker less against them, resulting in a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1:1, but given the lack of barrels and hard-hit balls against him, even walking the occasional lefty isn’t going to harm him often. Is Adrian Houser a perfect pitcher? No. Is he likely, over a five-game stretch, to give you better starts than Colin Rea? Unquestionably.
  10. Just to clarify, Hiura hasn't registered many high exit velos yet since coming back, and being the hitter he is, he'll need a couple of weeks after two months off to find his form and confidence at the plate, naturally. I'd see if he's doing better by the end of next week in the way he can do at AA, but anything this sample since coming back is probably not an indicator. And I think it's really important he feels on fire and comfortable before coming back to the majors, so I'd maybe say all star break ish if he gets brought up at the earliest Frelick is similar, just needs a little more time to iron out the inconsistencies and get dialled in again. Turang has been hitting hard down there, which surprised me, but he's also been a little sloppy in the field, I wonder if he is tweaking his swing to access a little more power atm, also noticing an increase in strikeouts
  11. I wonder if the Brewers will work on a third pitch for Misiorowski... the fastball slider combo is great, but having a changeup in there would take him to the next level for me
  12. He's having a down period but still making relatively consistent contact He carried the Brewers through May almost single handed and for that is worth the cash considerations alone It's kind of tough to argue otherwise PS I'm a diehard brew crew fan
  13. His penutlimate start was a 9K, 7 inning, No run effort against the Astros, so he still has it in him. The D'backs torched him last time out, but he still went 7 innings, so I'm expecting him to eat innings
  14. Also, he has a 1.55 WHIP to lefties, including eight of his eleven home runs Has struggled to strike out right handers but has much performed better overall against them (mostly due to the slider)
  15. Another Ace! Or so i thought, there is a lot of blue numbers on Bieber's statcast, he's striking out barely any at the moment (69 in 95 innings) 20th percentile or below in: Expected slugging Strikeout rate Expected batting average Average exit velocity Hard hit percentage Fastball velocity His expected ERA is 4.86 Fastball has been poorly located, very much center cut (heads of Wiemer & Yelich perk up at that) resulting in it getting hit hard and often as has the cutter His changeup to lefties has also been hammered but the breaking pitches have bailed him out, the only ones where he seems to control the pitch well If you can lay off the slider down and away (its mostly out of zone) you're in business
  16. Also I'm determined to give Hiura a few weeks to get his eye in again too, I'm sure it'll come, but let's see if he can rediscover the ability to not strikeout he had before the injury. Hell even Frelick struck out twice last night
  17. So Demetrio Nadal is playing very interestingly so far 28 plate appearances One Strikeout Six Walks & a HBP Eight hits/20 AB's for a .400 Average Five of his eight hits have been for extra bases with three doubles and two triples His GO/AO suggests he's got a nice swing path and elevates the ball a lot, with only a 0.2 GO/AO. This stands out in thinking he's not just pulling grounders into fortunate spaces, but actually ripping balls It's his second year in the DSL, could we see a promotion? Also seven stolen bases and not caught as of yet
  18. I actually agree, he was definitely adjusting, while also missing out on three pulled homers by a yard or so round the foul pole
  19. Holliday may be the highest rated prospect in baseball, he's been monstrous, not sure that's remotely on the table. Would you have traded Chourio for 1.5 years of a 4 ERA current season pitcher?
  20. I think this is a very easy solution to point to, that to be fair he could work at to get gains defensively and on the basepaths, as well as some added muscle mass with it. I'm surprised as a pro he hasn't, especially given he's known for being a total couch potato He's had one hot streak so far this year, but him and Adames, in short, need more of these hot streaks to justify their positions, and I'm not sure that's so much to do with his weight and mobility as a change in approach. He's actually whiffing less on high fastballs, so maybe made adjustments to cover more of the zone, but it's been detrimental to him overall
  21. After taking a look into Willy Adames’s contact profile in the early part of this season (and how it’s contributed to a middle of the order that can’t seem to generate runs), let’s have a look at the other black hole: Rowdy Tellez. Tellez started the season off swinging at far fewer pitches than usual, being more patient at the plate, which led to an increase in strikeout rates and a struggle to access power once the league attacked him more in the zone. Coming into the year, it was expected he could be an .800+ OPS bat, given (as mentioned before) his dreadful, career-low BABIP in 2022 and how that affected his overall line. This hasn’t been the case, however. Tellez has just a .390 OPS in the month of June so far, and he’s been struggling to access his power since the middle of May. He is striking out at a 25-percent clip, another high since the start of 2020, and his expected slugging numbers have dropped by over 100 points. So what’s going on? He still has the ability to hit the ball hard, and he’s pulling the ball less than he used to while increasing the number of line drives. This all sounds good, but he has been less consistent in his quality of contact, with average exit velocities notably dropping to 88.4 mph this season, compared with 91.1 mph in 2022 and 92.2 mph in 2021. He is still hitting fastballs quite well, although with a significantly higher launch angle (13 degrees last year up to 19 this season), but his biggest weakness so far has been breaking pitches. One of Tellez’s big damage areas was around his knees, either inside or over the heart of the plate. Particularly inside this season, he has really struggled to make quality contact, with his average exit velocity on pitches down and in dropping from 94 mph to 83 mph. He has an xBA of .140 and xSlg of .268 against breaking pitches this year, and that needs to improve for him to become that middle-of-the-order force he has the potential to be. He’s getting under these far too often, and it’s causing a lot of weak fly balls to the outfield. On top of that, he’s whiffing more often at the breaking balls that drop below the zone–significantly more, in fact, going from a 34% whiff rate to a 53% whiff rate in 2023. He was quite adept at fouling off these pitches last season, but can’t seem to hang in the at-bat for long at all so far this year. The other issue Tellez is having is that when he does hit the ball hard, he used to get prime launch angles, turning those hard-hit balls into big home runs. As of late, a lot of those have been line drives that have hit the outfield when he does make prime contact, resulting in a lower barrel rate (12.9% down to 9.3%) than we are used to seeing. Interesting, too, is how he has struggled against the sinker, with a line of .135/.135 against it so far this year (against 190 pitches). He has a 50-percent hard-hit rate against it, but he’s pounding it into the ground–almost a guaranteed out with his complete lack of speed. In short, the middle of the order needs to perform better for the Brewers to regularly put up runs, particularly with Christian Yelich performing as he has in recent months. He deserves to be driven in a lot more, and Counsell is already tweaking the lineup to try and help, moving Contreras behind Yelich on Tuesday night. You can’t rely on a hot streak from Wiemer or Anderson to be your only hopes of offense. The big names need to start playing better, and they need to do it now.
  22. As the Brewers continue to seek more consistent production from their lineup, it's hard not to view the guys who were most responsible for their success in 2021 and 2022 as the biggest culprits in their struggles. Today, we turn our attention to the not-so-slugging first baseman. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports After taking a look into Willy Adames’s contact profile in the early part of this season (and how it’s contributed to a middle of the order that can’t seem to generate runs), let’s have a look at the other black hole: Rowdy Tellez. Tellez started the season off swinging at far fewer pitches than usual, being more patient at the plate, which led to an increase in strikeout rates and a struggle to access power once the league attacked him more in the zone. Coming into the year, it was expected he could be an .800+ OPS bat, given (as mentioned before) his dreadful, career-low BABIP in 2022 and how that affected his overall line. This hasn’t been the case, however. Tellez has just a .390 OPS in the month of June so far, and he’s been struggling to access his power since the middle of May. He is striking out at a 25-percent clip, another high since the start of 2020, and his expected slugging numbers have dropped by over 100 points. So what’s going on? He still has the ability to hit the ball hard, and he’s pulling the ball less than he used to while increasing the number of line drives. This all sounds good, but he has been less consistent in his quality of contact, with average exit velocities notably dropping to 88.4 mph this season, compared with 91.1 mph in 2022 and 92.2 mph in 2021. He is still hitting fastballs quite well, although with a significantly higher launch angle (13 degrees last year up to 19 this season), but his biggest weakness so far has been breaking pitches. One of Tellez’s big damage areas was around his knees, either inside or over the heart of the plate. Particularly inside this season, he has really struggled to make quality contact, with his average exit velocity on pitches down and in dropping from 94 mph to 83 mph. He has an xBA of .140 and xSlg of .268 against breaking pitches this year, and that needs to improve for him to become that middle-of-the-order force he has the potential to be. He’s getting under these far too often, and it’s causing a lot of weak fly balls to the outfield. On top of that, he’s whiffing more often at the breaking balls that drop below the zone–significantly more, in fact, going from a 34% whiff rate to a 53% whiff rate in 2023. He was quite adept at fouling off these pitches last season, but can’t seem to hang in the at-bat for long at all so far this year. The other issue Tellez is having is that when he does hit the ball hard, he used to get prime launch angles, turning those hard-hit balls into big home runs. As of late, a lot of those have been line drives that have hit the outfield when he does make prime contact, resulting in a lower barrel rate (12.9% down to 9.3%) than we are used to seeing. Interesting, too, is how he has struggled against the sinker, with a line of .135/.135 against it so far this year (against 190 pitches). He has a 50-percent hard-hit rate against it, but he’s pounding it into the ground–almost a guaranteed out with his complete lack of speed. In short, the middle of the order needs to perform better for the Brewers to regularly put up runs, particularly with Christian Yelich performing as he has in recent months. He deserves to be driven in a lot more, and Counsell is already tweaking the lineup to try and help, moving Contreras behind Yelich on Tuesday night. You can’t rely on a hot streak from Wiemer or Anderson to be your only hopes of offense. The big names need to start playing better, and they need to do it now. View full article
  23. I think he had the same issues last season, but possibly! It becomes worrisome if it's a big issue at the end of the season
  24. I wonder if towards the end of this year we'll start to see Rodriguez get a grip on his control issues. The walks are really the only thing hurting him, and some improvement could make the sky the limit
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