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Jake McKibbin

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Everything posted by Jake McKibbin

  1. He's having a down period but still making relatively consistent contact He carried the Brewers through May almost single handed and for that is worth the cash considerations alone It's kind of tough to argue otherwise PS I'm a diehard brew crew fan
  2. His penutlimate start was a 9K, 7 inning, No run effort against the Astros, so he still has it in him. The D'backs torched him last time out, but he still went 7 innings, so I'm expecting him to eat innings
  3. Also, he has a 1.55 WHIP to lefties, including eight of his eleven home runs Has struggled to strike out right handers but has much performed better overall against them (mostly due to the slider)
  4. Another Ace! Or so i thought, there is a lot of blue numbers on Bieber's statcast, he's striking out barely any at the moment (69 in 95 innings) 20th percentile or below in: Expected slugging Strikeout rate Expected batting average Average exit velocity Hard hit percentage Fastball velocity His expected ERA is 4.86 Fastball has been poorly located, very much center cut (heads of Wiemer & Yelich perk up at that) resulting in it getting hit hard and often as has the cutter His changeup to lefties has also been hammered but the breaking pitches have bailed him out, the only ones where he seems to control the pitch well If you can lay off the slider down and away (its mostly out of zone) you're in business
  5. Also I'm determined to give Hiura a few weeks to get his eye in again too, I'm sure it'll come, but let's see if he can rediscover the ability to not strikeout he had before the injury. Hell even Frelick struck out twice last night
  6. So Demetrio Nadal is playing very interestingly so far 28 plate appearances One Strikeout Six Walks & a HBP Eight hits/20 AB's for a .400 Average Five of his eight hits have been for extra bases with three doubles and two triples His GO/AO suggests he's got a nice swing path and elevates the ball a lot, with only a 0.2 GO/AO. This stands out in thinking he's not just pulling grounders into fortunate spaces, but actually ripping balls It's his second year in the DSL, could we see a promotion? Also seven stolen bases and not caught as of yet
  7. I actually agree, he was definitely adjusting, while also missing out on three pulled homers by a yard or so round the foul pole
  8. Holliday may be the highest rated prospect in baseball, he's been monstrous, not sure that's remotely on the table. Would you have traded Chourio for 1.5 years of a 4 ERA current season pitcher?
  9. I think this is a very easy solution to point to, that to be fair he could work at to get gains defensively and on the basepaths, as well as some added muscle mass with it. I'm surprised as a pro he hasn't, especially given he's known for being a total couch potato He's had one hot streak so far this year, but him and Adames, in short, need more of these hot streaks to justify their positions, and I'm not sure that's so much to do with his weight and mobility as a change in approach. He's actually whiffing less on high fastballs, so maybe made adjustments to cover more of the zone, but it's been detrimental to him overall
  10. After taking a look into Willy Adames’s contact profile in the early part of this season (and how it’s contributed to a middle of the order that can’t seem to generate runs), let’s have a look at the other black hole: Rowdy Tellez. Tellez started the season off swinging at far fewer pitches than usual, being more patient at the plate, which led to an increase in strikeout rates and a struggle to access power once the league attacked him more in the zone. Coming into the year, it was expected he could be an .800+ OPS bat, given (as mentioned before) his dreadful, career-low BABIP in 2022 and how that affected his overall line. This hasn’t been the case, however. Tellez has just a .390 OPS in the month of June so far, and he’s been struggling to access his power since the middle of May. He is striking out at a 25-percent clip, another high since the start of 2020, and his expected slugging numbers have dropped by over 100 points. So what’s going on? He still has the ability to hit the ball hard, and he’s pulling the ball less than he used to while increasing the number of line drives. This all sounds good, but he has been less consistent in his quality of contact, with average exit velocities notably dropping to 88.4 mph this season, compared with 91.1 mph in 2022 and 92.2 mph in 2021. He is still hitting fastballs quite well, although with a significantly higher launch angle (13 degrees last year up to 19 this season), but his biggest weakness so far has been breaking pitches. One of Tellez’s big damage areas was around his knees, either inside or over the heart of the plate. Particularly inside this season, he has really struggled to make quality contact, with his average exit velocity on pitches down and in dropping from 94 mph to 83 mph. He has an xBA of .140 and xSlg of .268 against breaking pitches this year, and that needs to improve for him to become that middle-of-the-order force he has the potential to be. He’s getting under these far too often, and it’s causing a lot of weak fly balls to the outfield. On top of that, he’s whiffing more often at the breaking balls that drop below the zone–significantly more, in fact, going from a 34% whiff rate to a 53% whiff rate in 2023. He was quite adept at fouling off these pitches last season, but can’t seem to hang in the at-bat for long at all so far this year. The other issue Tellez is having is that when he does hit the ball hard, he used to get prime launch angles, turning those hard-hit balls into big home runs. As of late, a lot of those have been line drives that have hit the outfield when he does make prime contact, resulting in a lower barrel rate (12.9% down to 9.3%) than we are used to seeing. Interesting, too, is how he has struggled against the sinker, with a line of .135/.135 against it so far this year (against 190 pitches). He has a 50-percent hard-hit rate against it, but he’s pounding it into the ground–almost a guaranteed out with his complete lack of speed. In short, the middle of the order needs to perform better for the Brewers to regularly put up runs, particularly with Christian Yelich performing as he has in recent months. He deserves to be driven in a lot more, and Counsell is already tweaking the lineup to try and help, moving Contreras behind Yelich on Tuesday night. You can’t rely on a hot streak from Wiemer or Anderson to be your only hopes of offense. The big names need to start playing better, and they need to do it now.
  11. As the Brewers continue to seek more consistent production from their lineup, it's hard not to view the guys who were most responsible for their success in 2021 and 2022 as the biggest culprits in their struggles. Today, we turn our attention to the not-so-slugging first baseman. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports After taking a look into Willy Adames’s contact profile in the early part of this season (and how it’s contributed to a middle of the order that can’t seem to generate runs), let’s have a look at the other black hole: Rowdy Tellez. Tellez started the season off swinging at far fewer pitches than usual, being more patient at the plate, which led to an increase in strikeout rates and a struggle to access power once the league attacked him more in the zone. Coming into the year, it was expected he could be an .800+ OPS bat, given (as mentioned before) his dreadful, career-low BABIP in 2022 and how that affected his overall line. This hasn’t been the case, however. Tellez has just a .390 OPS in the month of June so far, and he’s been struggling to access his power since the middle of May. He is striking out at a 25-percent clip, another high since the start of 2020, and his expected slugging numbers have dropped by over 100 points. So what’s going on? He still has the ability to hit the ball hard, and he’s pulling the ball less than he used to while increasing the number of line drives. This all sounds good, but he has been less consistent in his quality of contact, with average exit velocities notably dropping to 88.4 mph this season, compared with 91.1 mph in 2022 and 92.2 mph in 2021. He is still hitting fastballs quite well, although with a significantly higher launch angle (13 degrees last year up to 19 this season), but his biggest weakness so far has been breaking pitches. One of Tellez’s big damage areas was around his knees, either inside or over the heart of the plate. Particularly inside this season, he has really struggled to make quality contact, with his average exit velocity on pitches down and in dropping from 94 mph to 83 mph. He has an xBA of .140 and xSlg of .268 against breaking pitches this year, and that needs to improve for him to become that middle-of-the-order force he has the potential to be. He’s getting under these far too often, and it’s causing a lot of weak fly balls to the outfield. On top of that, he’s whiffing more often at the breaking balls that drop below the zone–significantly more, in fact, going from a 34% whiff rate to a 53% whiff rate in 2023. He was quite adept at fouling off these pitches last season, but can’t seem to hang in the at-bat for long at all so far this year. The other issue Tellez is having is that when he does hit the ball hard, he used to get prime launch angles, turning those hard-hit balls into big home runs. As of late, a lot of those have been line drives that have hit the outfield when he does make prime contact, resulting in a lower barrel rate (12.9% down to 9.3%) than we are used to seeing. Interesting, too, is how he has struggled against the sinker, with a line of .135/.135 against it so far this year (against 190 pitches). He has a 50-percent hard-hit rate against it, but he’s pounding it into the ground–almost a guaranteed out with his complete lack of speed. In short, the middle of the order needs to perform better for the Brewers to regularly put up runs, particularly with Christian Yelich performing as he has in recent months. He deserves to be driven in a lot more, and Counsell is already tweaking the lineup to try and help, moving Contreras behind Yelich on Tuesday night. You can’t rely on a hot streak from Wiemer or Anderson to be your only hopes of offense. The big names need to start playing better, and they need to do it now. View full article
  12. I think he had the same issues last season, but possibly! It becomes worrisome if it's a big issue at the end of the season
  13. I wonder if towards the end of this year we'll start to see Rodriguez get a grip on his control issues. The walks are really the only thing hurting him, and some improvement could make the sky the limit
  14. Also could be an important game if it comes to a big Diamondbacks slump, but if you want in playoffs, gotta beat potential wild card teams
  15. Black had a really strong start hitting wise, but he did definitely cool off a little and it seems the bat, not just the eye at the plate, is really heating up again, which can only be a good thing Unsure if he's been working on anything specific but just so impressive what he's doing
  16. Miami are going well though, very well in fact with their tails up, and we all know Soler can carry a team for a small period as he did in the playoffs. I'm not sure how available he'll be, but would be a decent pickup, maybe if winker started hitting better it makes sense especially for the lefty mashing, and a mid level prospect Don't think I'd trade 7 years of Frelick for him though
  17. Coming into the season, the Brewers knew that both Willy Adames (as he did in 2021) and Rowdy Tellez (with an awful BABIP last season) have the potential to be .800+ OPS hitters who drive in runs with regularity. Adames, in particular, has always shown additional quality with men on base, a fingerspitzengefühl so often missing for the Milwaukee offense. The team also boasts an improved Christian Yelich (.405 OBP in his last 30 games, and currently on a hot streak) and Jesse Winker, who has recently started hitting the ball harder and has a great eye at the plate to set the platform. This should have been a big boost, yet Adames and Tellez haven’t held up their end of the bargain, with the mostly average Brian Anderson leading the team with 34 RBIs. Coming into yesterday's game, all of the two- to four-hole hitters averaged under .200 over their last 10 games, and it’s letting Yelich’s production go to waste. So what’s going wrong? Willy Adames Adames’s walk and strikeout numbers are eerily similar to his big season when he came to the Brewers in 2021, but results-wise, it just hasn’t been there, largely due to a lack of quality contact and attacking approach at the plate. However, this has always been the case, looking at his swing percentages compared to his prime season. Pitchers are attacking him almost exactly the same way, but his contact ability has disappeared, particularly against the fastball. In 2021, he had an xBA of .309 against fastballs, which has gone down to .227 in 2023. All over the zone, his average exit velocities have dropped by at least a couple of miles per hour, particularly on middle-away pitches where he used to do a ton of damage. Now, he averages just 87-mph contact speeds. Brian Anderson and Bill Schroeder (among others) have noted the pull-heavy approach Adames has employed so far, rather than staying with the pitch and going to straightaway center or using the opposite field, and that’s borne out by his 50.3% pull rate so far this season, far and away a career high for a full season. He pulled just 42% of his batted balls in 2021, and 37% in 2022. You can also see that he has increased the number of ground balls from pulling on the outer half of the plate, and for Adames, it’s crucial that he can elevate the ball. He doesn’t have massive bat speed, but his ability to find the sweet spot is his strength, similar to Nolan Arenado.] The other thing he used to do well with, despite his swing-and-miss when it was well-located, was to hammer breaking balls when they were left up in the zone. He has an xSlg of just .249 against sliders so far this season. If he stayed with the pitch, he may find superior results in all facets of his game, in a similar way to what we see from William Contreras. It seems like a simple fix, but he just needs to trust himself and his hands more, and I feel like his belief is lacking. That being said, his eighth-inning at-bat Sunday against Dauri Moreta, who has been exceptional for the Pirates, was his most selective of the day, and far and away the best. He swung at the right pitches, fouling off tough ones and working a long walk. The grinding approach suits Adames, and hopefully more can come if he can sustain that mentality.
  18. It's easy to point to some of the truly empty places in the Brewers' lineup this season. To be sure, inconsistent production from the bottom of the order has been a problem for the team at times. However, the inconsistency of two key contributors in the middle of the lineup might be even more troublesome. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Coming into the season, the Brewers knew that both Willy Adames (as he did in 2021) and Rowdy Tellez (with an awful BABIP last season) have the potential to be .800+ OPS hitters who drive in runs with regularity. Adames, in particular, has always shown additional quality with men on base, a fingerspitzengefühl so often missing for the Milwaukee offense. The team also boasts an improved Christian Yelich (.405 OBP in his last 30 games, and currently on a hot streak) and Jesse Winker, who has recently started hitting the ball harder and has a great eye at the plate to set the platform. This should have been a big boost, yet Adames and Tellez haven’t held up their end of the bargain, with the mostly average Brian Anderson leading the team with 34 RBIs. Coming into yesterday's game, all of the two- to four-hole hitters averaged under .200 over their last 10 games, and it’s letting Yelich’s production go to waste. So what’s going wrong? Willy Adames Adames’s walk and strikeout numbers are eerily similar to his big season when he came to the Brewers in 2021, but results-wise, it just hasn’t been there, largely due to a lack of quality contact and attacking approach at the plate. However, this has always been the case, looking at his swing percentages compared to his prime season. Pitchers are attacking him almost exactly the same way, but his contact ability has disappeared, particularly against the fastball. In 2021, he had an xBA of .309 against fastballs, which has gone down to .227 in 2023. All over the zone, his average exit velocities have dropped by at least a couple of miles per hour, particularly on middle-away pitches where he used to do a ton of damage. Now, he averages just 87-mph contact speeds. Brian Anderson and Bill Schroeder (among others) have noted the pull-heavy approach Adames has employed so far, rather than staying with the pitch and going to straightaway center or using the opposite field, and that’s borne out by his 50.3% pull rate so far this season, far and away a career high for a full season. He pulled just 42% of his batted balls in 2021, and 37% in 2022. You can also see that he has increased the number of ground balls from pulling on the outer half of the plate, and for Adames, it’s crucial that he can elevate the ball. He doesn’t have massive bat speed, but his ability to find the sweet spot is his strength, similar to Nolan Arenado.] The other thing he used to do well with, despite his swing-and-miss when it was well-located, was to hammer breaking balls when they were left up in the zone. He has an xSlg of just .249 against sliders so far this season. If he stayed with the pitch, he may find superior results in all facets of his game, in a similar way to what we see from William Contreras. It seems like a simple fix, but he just needs to trust himself and his hands more, and I feel like his belief is lacking. That being said, his eighth-inning at-bat Sunday against Dauri Moreta, who has been exceptional for the Pirates, was his most selective of the day, and far and away the best. He swung at the right pitches, fouling off tough ones and working a long walk. The grinding approach suits Adames, and hopefully more can come if he can sustain that mentality. View full article
  19. Personalities dictate how people best feel comfortable in getting best performance from themselves, and burnes is a tinkerer. I'd also suggest getting warm isn't a 30 second shoulder rotation thing, but quite a meticulous process
  20. Jimenez is unlikely to get such a price due to limited defensive value and his significant injury risk, and I'm unsure the Brewers are trading Gasser other than for a pitcher, it's their biggest area of need development wise at the moment Guillarte and Wood aren't enough on their own, either. I'm not sure he quite fits in this Brewers roster
  21. This seems reasonable, he can fill in at first as well as DH-ing and he's got that big streak in him. Was huge in second half last season for the Dodgers
  22. Getting Gallen and Kelly again this series, hopefully a slightly better showing this time around
  23. Rooker and Noda are unlikely unless the A's are really not sold on them at all Ramirez just signed a long term extension with the Guardians, below market rate because he wants to stay there Jimenez is interesting, if injury free a big upgrade but also the White Sox have been pulling back in that division and may not want to cash in just yet A respectable contract of 4+ years is likely to be quite costly for McMahon And as for Goldy, he'd be awesome but the cost is a big one. However he could instantly transform this team. Instantly. Yet would I trade a Misiorowski level talent? Probably not
  24. The Rays aren't trading Peralta for Manzardo alone I dont think, never mind for extra parts too, especially not the way his secondary stuff has been this season for a real quality hitter who is MLB ready I think Frasso from Dodgers would be intriguing And yeah Williams is another intriguing one, a lot of potential value there
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