Jake McKibbin
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Everything posted by Jake McKibbin
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Cubs (Smyly) vs Brewers (Teheran): 7/3/23, 1:10pm
Jake McKibbin replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Hendricks has over performed in a small sample size, but I think this Brewers lineup might like him. Other than that, it's can we keep the Cubs offense down, because on paper that's a good team and good starting pitchers. A few homers here or there may make all the difference, but hoping we get a good teheran outing, an early win takes the pressure off big time -
Probably even more appropriate in that case... seems to be a great find, 12 K's last night is massive
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They have real potential in that department. I think if I could take any player, I'd probably want Matt McLain, I think he's been incredible so far this season with a really high floor too, and quality defense. With the continued development and potential of Lodolo, Greene, Ashcraft and Abbott, that could be fearsome if it all comes together. Fair play to them for some of the assets they've acquired by selling the last two seasons, some immense returns
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Abbott has faced some tough opposition so far since his first start v the Brewers, but wow has he taken to it. Seems the Reds may have a genuine ace in town
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Pitching has been key to the Brewers success so far this season due to a serious lack of offensive output. Some of this has come from unusual places, with Colin Rea, Adrian Houser, Bryce Wilson, Elvis Peguero and Joel Payamps. In the month of June however, there is one standout. But first, let's highlight a couple other pitchers that did great work during the month in June. Honorable Mentions Hoby Milner If it wasn’t for the fantastic pitching this month from our winner, the award would have gone to Hoby Milner. The lefty shook off a rough May (1.043 OPS Against) to allow just one extra-base hit across 11 innings of work over 14 games. Not a single run was charged to his name. With 10 strikeouts, he was used to getting out tough lefties, and was utilized more and more as the month went on, including five games in six days at one point. His four-seam fastball has been almost unhittable at its 88.6 mph average speed, with an xBA of .108 and xSlg of .183, truly incredible numbers. He got a lot of swing-and-miss with a 41.5% whiff rate. His curveball has been almost as effective, with xBA of .163 and xSlg of .202. These two pitches have allowed him to come into a variety of situations and just get outs. There is some concern for how his changeup and sinker have been getting hit, but for now, hats off to Hoby. Joel Payamps This month, Payamps has been moved into the eighth-inning role after Strzelecki’s struggles, and has been almost immaculate. A 1.80 ERA in June, with a 2.17 ERA overall and a 1.07 WHIP on the season, Payamps has been invaluable despite almost being a throw-away player in the William Contreras deal. He is in the top 10% of pitchers in the league for both his walk rate and average exit velocity, a strong combination for a contact-oriented pitcher. He’s used his four-seam fastball to good effect against left-handers, but has increased his slider usage to right-handers, making it his main offering, and has averaged a -2 degree launch angle, with .184 BA and .261 slugging numbers. Payamps has been consistent day in, day out for the Brewers and deserves every credit that comes his way. For something that was a real worry for the Brewers coming into the season, the bullpen has been one of their biggest strengths so far this year, and Payamps is a big reason for that. Pitcher of the Month – Julio Teheran He’s received minimal run support so far, but save for his last blow up outing against the Mets, Teheran has been an absolute godsend for the Brewers. As Matthew Trueblood found, his new blend of a deeper sinker and a cutter into his pitch mix have worked wonders, and the way in which he has used them to great effect in tight to right handers has produced a lot of weak contact and thus a lot of success. In his five starts this month, he has three straight quality starts, then went five innings with no earned runs before his more recent explosion, and is pounding the strike zone. The fact the Brewers lost three of his four outstanding starts has nothing to do with him, and several stats really jump off the page. He is hitting the strike zone a lot, and the lack of walks have really helped him out when he does leave mistakes over the heart of the plate, with only one occasion this season where he has walked more than one hitter, putting him in the 91st percentile for walks per nine innings. A lot of his results this season have been fueled by a good BABIP, and that can’t be overlooked. However he has shown what a veteran pitcher can bring, by adapting his pitch usage and tunneling to great effect. As mentioned, he’s worked his sinker and cutter around the inside part of the plate to right handers, and has occasionally been hit hard, but has importantly kept it on the ground, a real benefit to this premium Brewers infield. This has been key to his success, and if he can adapt with the league, and stay confident in his stuff and his defense to do the job behind him, this success can continue into July. So there you have it. Signed to an MLB contract by the Brewers just days after the San Diego Padres released him from his minor-league contract, Julio Teheran responded with a very strong first month in Milwaukee. What are your thoughts on the choice, and the runners-up? Feel free to discuss in the COMMENTS below.
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Yesterday, we named the Brewer Fanatic Hitter of the Month for June. Today, we look at the top pitchers for the Milwaukee Brewers in June. Pitching has been key to the Brewers success so far this season due to a serious lack of offensive output. Some of this has come from unusual places, with Colin Rea, Adrian Houser, Bryce Wilson, Elvis Peguero and Joel Payamps. In the month of June however, there is one standout. But first, let's highlight a couple other pitchers that did great work during the month in June. Honorable Mentions Hoby Milner If it wasn’t for the fantastic pitching this month from our winner, the award would have gone to Hoby Milner. The lefty shook off a rough May (1.043 OPS Against) to allow just one extra-base hit across 11 innings of work over 14 games. Not a single run was charged to his name. With 10 strikeouts, he was used to getting out tough lefties, and was utilized more and more as the month went on, including five games in six days at one point. His four-seam fastball has been almost unhittable at its 88.6 mph average speed, with an xBA of .108 and xSlg of .183, truly incredible numbers. He got a lot of swing-and-miss with a 41.5% whiff rate. His curveball has been almost as effective, with xBA of .163 and xSlg of .202. These two pitches have allowed him to come into a variety of situations and just get outs. There is some concern for how his changeup and sinker have been getting hit, but for now, hats off to Hoby. Joel Payamps This month, Payamps has been moved into the eighth-inning role after Strzelecki’s struggles, and has been almost immaculate. A 1.80 ERA in June, with a 2.17 ERA overall and a 1.07 WHIP on the season, Payamps has been invaluable despite almost being a throw-away player in the William Contreras deal. He is in the top 10% of pitchers in the league for both his walk rate and average exit velocity, a strong combination for a contact-oriented pitcher. He’s used his four-seam fastball to good effect against left-handers, but has increased his slider usage to right-handers, making it his main offering, and has averaged a -2 degree launch angle, with .184 BA and .261 slugging numbers. Payamps has been consistent day in, day out for the Brewers and deserves every credit that comes his way. For something that was a real worry for the Brewers coming into the season, the bullpen has been one of their biggest strengths so far this year, and Payamps is a big reason for that. Pitcher of the Month – Julio Teheran He’s received minimal run support so far, but save for his last blow up outing against the Mets, Teheran has been an absolute godsend for the Brewers. As Matthew Trueblood found, his new blend of a deeper sinker and a cutter into his pitch mix have worked wonders, and the way in which he has used them to great effect in tight to right handers has produced a lot of weak contact and thus a lot of success. In his five starts this month, he has three straight quality starts, then went five innings with no earned runs before his more recent explosion, and is pounding the strike zone. The fact the Brewers lost three of his four outstanding starts has nothing to do with him, and several stats really jump off the page. He is hitting the strike zone a lot, and the lack of walks have really helped him out when he does leave mistakes over the heart of the plate, with only one occasion this season where he has walked more than one hitter, putting him in the 91st percentile for walks per nine innings. A lot of his results this season have been fueled by a good BABIP, and that can’t be overlooked. However he has shown what a veteran pitcher can bring, by adapting his pitch usage and tunneling to great effect. As mentioned, he’s worked his sinker and cutter around the inside part of the plate to right handers, and has occasionally been hit hard, but has importantly kept it on the ground, a real benefit to this premium Brewers infield. This has been key to his success, and if he can adapt with the league, and stay confident in his stuff and his defense to do the job behind him, this success can continue into July. So there you have it. Signed to an MLB contract by the Brewers just days after the San Diego Padres released him from his minor-league contract, Julio Teheran responded with a very strong first month in Milwaukee. What are your thoughts on the choice, and the runners-up? Feel free to discuss in the COMMENTS below. View full article
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Three months complete. How is that possible? It's time to again crown some award winners for the month. Who were the top hitters of the month for the Milwaukee Brewers? Somehow, despite a five-game losing streak to the Twins and the A’s, the Brewers have made June a winning month of baseball through some timely hitting from a few individuals on the hitting side, dragging the rest of a struggling offense kicking and screaming into the month of July. I’m sure it’ll be no surprise, but this month’s hitting award goes to... Well, we're not just going to tell you right away. We're going to do a bit of a countdown starting at #3. #3: OF Blake Perkins Understandably, some eyebrows were raised when Blake Perkins got a 40-man roster spot in the offseason, and a major-league contract. However, our minor-league experts here at Brewer Fanatic lauded his smooth swing and smooth actions in the outfield. He made his big-league debut and played 10 games for the Brewers in April. Since he came back up to the Brewers on June 3rd, he has hit a strong .288/.351/.423 (.774). He has had high-quality at-bats with a double and two home runs and a propensity to get on base for the likes of Joey Wiemer and Christian Yelich. Unlike these two though, most of his damage comes against breaking pitches with a .317 xBA against the changeup and .290 xBA against the curveball. It’s a small enough sample size, and he’ll need harder contact to continue his stay in the big leagues, but he’s been more than what the Brewers could have hoped so far. #2: OF Joey Wiemer Wiemer has reinvented himself to care a little less about strikeouts. Now he is just looking to find a pitch and do damage. That’s exactly what he did in June, striking out just barely over 30% of the time, but with an ISO of .279, he mashed the ball for a .233/.337/.512 slash line and an .849 OPS. He hit six doubles, six home runs, and 16 RBI across the month. A lot of this is due to getting the ball in the air more, with a GO/AO of 0.79, and when he connects, the ball goes a long way. His center field defense has been outstanding to boot, and as he adjusts his approach and fine tunes at the plate, he’s only going to get better. Hitter of the Month – OF Christian Yelich Yelich was in sublime form for the Brewers in June. In 27 games, he hit .311/.408/.485 (.893). He used his speed to great effect in stretching out 10 doubles, a triple and mashing a couple of home runs. He’s been about as effective a leadoff hitter as you can get, and it’s not just due to good BABIP fortune or the shift being removed (though this undoubtedly helps his profile). His expected batting average is in the 91st percentile, compared to the 68th percentile last season, and a lot of this is due to an improvement in the number of extreme low launch angles (say less than -10 degrees). Due to the power with which he hits the ball, any uptick in launch angle will make a huge difference, and he’s currently hovering around a five-degree angle on the season, up about 1.5 degrees over last year. This may not sound like much, but it’s allowed the power to play a bit more, with increased line drives, and a propensity to go to the opposite field and swing slightly later on the fastball. Two of his swing metrics in particular seem to follow his success at the plate: Notice in 2018/19, Yelich was extremely successful at making contact when chasing, even while trying to do damage. And even more importantly, his percentage of first-pitch swings went up drastically. When he feels comfortable with his body at the plate, he’s more aggressive and it pays off in the form of a higher batting average and more hits, something we’re really seeing so far this season. One thing that did frustrate fans last season was how often he took pitches over the heart of the plate. Not anymore. He swung at just 73.6% of meatballs last season. He’s having a go at 86.3% this year, a career high, and something that’s certainly helping him at the plate. While he has many detractors, this version of Yelich is a joy to watch, and maintaining it through the second half, or even improving further with his launch angles, can keep this team in the playoff hunt. So what do you think of our top three Brewers hitters in June? Do you agree with the choices? Is anyone missing? Leave a comments in the Forum below. View full article
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Somehow, despite a five-game losing streak to the Twins and the A’s, the Brewers have made June a winning month of baseball through some timely hitting from a few individuals on the hitting side, dragging the rest of a struggling offense kicking and screaming into the month of July. I’m sure it’ll be no surprise, but this month’s hitting award goes to... Well, we're not just going to tell you right away. We're going to do a bit of a countdown starting at #3. #3: OF Blake Perkins Understandably, some eyebrows were raised when Blake Perkins got a 40-man roster spot in the offseason, and a major-league contract. However, our minor-league experts here at Brewer Fanatic lauded his smooth swing and smooth actions in the outfield. He made his big-league debut and played 10 games for the Brewers in April. Since he came back up to the Brewers on June 3rd, he has hit a strong .288/.351/.423 (.774). He has had high-quality at-bats with a double and two home runs and a propensity to get on base for the likes of Joey Wiemer and Christian Yelich. Unlike these two though, most of his damage comes against breaking pitches with a .317 xBA against the changeup and .290 xBA against the curveball. It’s a small enough sample size, and he’ll need harder contact to continue his stay in the big leagues, but he’s been more than what the Brewers could have hoped so far. #2: OF Joey Wiemer Wiemer has reinvented himself to care a little less about strikeouts. Now he is just looking to find a pitch and do damage. That’s exactly what he did in June, striking out just barely over 30% of the time, but with an ISO of .279, he mashed the ball for a .233/.337/.512 slash line and an .849 OPS. He hit six doubles, six home runs, and 16 RBI across the month. A lot of this is due to getting the ball in the air more, with a GO/AO of 0.79, and when he connects, the ball goes a long way. His center field defense has been outstanding to boot, and as he adjusts his approach and fine tunes at the plate, he’s only going to get better. Hitter of the Month – OF Christian Yelich Yelich was in sublime form for the Brewers in June. In 27 games, he hit .311/.408/.485 (.893). He used his speed to great effect in stretching out 10 doubles, a triple and mashing a couple of home runs. He’s been about as effective a leadoff hitter as you can get, and it’s not just due to good BABIP fortune or the shift being removed (though this undoubtedly helps his profile). His expected batting average is in the 91st percentile, compared to the 68th percentile last season, and a lot of this is due to an improvement in the number of extreme low launch angles (say less than -10 degrees). Due to the power with which he hits the ball, any uptick in launch angle will make a huge difference, and he’s currently hovering around a five-degree angle on the season, up about 1.5 degrees over last year. This may not sound like much, but it’s allowed the power to play a bit more, with increased line drives, and a propensity to go to the opposite field and swing slightly later on the fastball. Two of his swing metrics in particular seem to follow his success at the plate: Notice in 2018/19, Yelich was extremely successful at making contact when chasing, even while trying to do damage. And even more importantly, his percentage of first-pitch swings went up drastically. When he feels comfortable with his body at the plate, he’s more aggressive and it pays off in the form of a higher batting average and more hits, something we’re really seeing so far this season. One thing that did frustrate fans last season was how often he took pitches over the heart of the plate. Not anymore. He swung at just 73.6% of meatballs last season. He’s having a go at 86.3% this year, a career high, and something that’s certainly helping him at the plate. While he has many detractors, this version of Yelich is a joy to watch, and maintaining it through the second half, or even improving further with his launch angles, can keep this team in the playoff hunt. So what do you think of our top three Brewers hitters in June? Do you agree with the choices? Is anyone missing? Leave a comments in the Forum below.
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Bido has done pretty well so far this season, but he has a couple of tendency's that could be exploited in his fourth start His fastball has a real tendency to hover over the middle of the plate, both the sinker and the four seamer. The sinker is used more to lefties, but has just a 9.6% whiff rate. His main pitch (slightly) is the slider, which he's sprayed around a bit, this is definitely not a command pitcher He gets below average vertical movement on every pitch bar the changeup, which he uses pretty sparingly but has done very well with against lefties. It's putaway percetnage is 42.9% (I'm assuming 3/7)
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I don't think the hit tool excites me enough, especially playing it safer last time out with Eric Brown Jr. I'd like to see a bat with a higher ceiling, wehreas Bradfield does scream "4th outfielder" potential at this point, although his speed is fun The potential for Jake Gelof and his ceiling though might be more tempting, but even then I'd like a slightly higher ceiling in first couple of rounds
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They were both quite weakly hit singles unfortunately, but he did rope a lineout later in the game of 104 mph. Once he starts connecting hard again, I think we'll see him up Frelick will get there too, he's hit his whole life, but Perkins has been really impressive bar the outs on the base paths so far, so there's not a ton of pressure and he's earned the playing time
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So Peterson is interesting, awful ERA but has been a little unlucky He leads with the slider to lefties, and although it's been hit hard this year, its usually a front door slider, which Yelich struggles with. However most lefties love that pitch down and in. He's back dooring it to right handers too often and getting hit, with all the swings and misses coming when he buries it down and inside, out of zone. The fastballs have been to center cut, and have been mashed when he's left them there, barely generating any swing and miss. His four seamer is really quite flat movement wise, so again, Joey, unload please. Could be a good pitcher for Adames, Urias and Anderson to find some rhythm against He has 5.6 walks per nine at AAA, and a 1.74 WHIP before getting sent down. He's still striking guys out but has lost almost all control of the fastball in zone, leading to expected slugging percentages over .500 on his four seamer and sinker, as well as the slider (the sinker being particularly hittable)
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And never forget, don't touch the "butt" I used to know an athlete with short term memory loss who swam, she got inundated with dory towels from fans
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Peterson is intersting today, had a 1.62 WHIP and 5.6 walks per nine in AAA, still striking out guys but a ton of contact otherwise. But he's a lefty coming up... still this might be negated by the fact you'll have actual scouting reports on him given he's been around a while. The Brewers are basically facing Eric Lauer here
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There is a possibility that the Blue Jays could be very fringey in the AL east by the time the deadline rolls around, with a mistimed run and given the strength of the AL East in combo with the surging Angels and Astros for wildcard spots What would give up to acquire him?
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Brewers (Rea) vs Mets (Verlander): 6/26/23, 6:10pm
Jake McKibbin replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
So Verlander look see: Isn't getting much swing and miss, but is getting a lot of chases outside the zone. His fastball has been very hittable despite the high spin/decent velo with an average of almost 94 mph exit velocity, and his curveball has been hit more than usual this season too (again despite above average movement) Location wise, his off speed stuff is usually down and away to righties, and to lefties (Yelich's kryptonite in that zone) Big difference so far this season is the quality of contact which has been very very good so far, and even well located pitches have been hit well He's struggling to set things up with the fastball. He's throwing significantly less first pitch strikes compared to last season (62% down to 53.5%) so be patient, wait on that fastball, and CRUSH it -
I agree, I think working off two pitches is forcing him to work harder in counts, and having an extra pitch makes the main two that much more miss-able. Its something Freddy has struggled with, a lot of long AB's because he can't quite wipe them out That being said apparently he does have a change-up that below average and a curveball that should be developed well due to his ability to spin the ball well both on the fastball and slider He's some talent
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The Brewers' rotation is healthy enough to enjoy some stability, but it hasn't been the reliable group the team needs. Too many games are getting loose early, forcing the below-average lineup to produce at an above-average clip in order to win. Is a different fifth starter the answer to that problem? Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Colin Rea has been a serviceable pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers during their time of need, usually keeping things close enough that a decent offensive performance can grab the win. However, his statcast page is beginning to resemble Jason Alexander’s, with minimal chase rates, minimal whiffs, minimal curveball movement or fastball velocity. He has avoided barrels well enough to limit the damage, but he feels like a bomb waiting to explode, and he certainly can’t be credited with actively winning the Brewers games. Compare this to Adrian Houser, who was moved to the bullpen upon Wade Miley’s return. Since his last start on June 9, he’s made just two appearances, throwing four innings of relief in a game that had gotten away from the Brewers on June 19 and mopping up an inning against the Guardians Friday night. Houser has brought down his career-high line drive rate of 2022 (26.1% down to 21.3%) and increased his groundball rate back to 52.5%--not quite as effective as in his prime, but still able to generate a lot of weak grounders and cheap outs to a strong defense. He is in the 64th percentile for expected opponent slugging and walk rate, and 88th percentile for barrels, all key to his performance. When he himself returned from the injured list, Houser was using his four-seam fastball to left-handers with great effect, but it seems hitters have caught up to it now. They’re posting an average exit velocity of 97 miles per hour on it. However, Houser does still generate whiffs when he ties that heater in with his sinker. His changeup and slider have generated consistently weak contact, and his sinker has an average launch angle of 0 degrees, exactly what he would be hoping for. Have a look at the quality of contact against each of these pitchers: Houser Rea The most immediately noticeable stat is that Houser has a 2.8% solid contact rate, and 4.3% barrel rate, compared to Rea with 7% for each of those. Houser has limited hard and damaging contact much more effectively. Out of this alone, I cannot understand why Rea is getting more innings, with higher average leverage. Rea has gone through six innings just twice, and while he has the occasional gem, such as his eight-strikeout, five-inning shutdown of the Orioles earlier this month, he has also conceded at least three runs through five innings in his other three starts this month, for an ERA that is only rising as the league gets a good look at him. Houser did have a blowup start against the A’s, due mostly to walking hitters, something he hadn’t done much of so far this season. However, he has a track record of producing quality starts and being able to get on top of a lineup in a way that Rea just can’t. Houser does still struggle to corral left-handed batters, in particular with his command. He tries to use his sinker less against them, resulting in a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1:1, but given the lack of barrels and hard-hit balls against him, even walking the occasional lefty isn’t going to harm him often. Is Adrian Houser a perfect pitcher? No. Is he likely, over a five-game stretch, to give you better starts than Colin Rea? Unquestionably. View full article
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Colin Rea vs. Adrian Houser: Who Should Be the Brewers' Fifth Starter?
Jake McKibbin posted an article in Brewers
Colin Rea has been a serviceable pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers during their time of need, usually keeping things close enough that a decent offensive performance can grab the win. However, his statcast page is beginning to resemble Jason Alexander’s, with minimal chase rates, minimal whiffs, minimal curveball movement or fastball velocity. He has avoided barrels well enough to limit the damage, but he feels like a bomb waiting to explode, and he certainly can’t be credited with actively winning the Brewers games. Compare this to Adrian Houser, who was moved to the bullpen upon Wade Miley’s return. Since his last start on June 9, he’s made just two appearances, throwing four innings of relief in a game that had gotten away from the Brewers on June 19 and mopping up an inning against the Guardians Friday night. Houser has brought down his career-high line drive rate of 2022 (26.1% down to 21.3%) and increased his groundball rate back to 52.5%--not quite as effective as in his prime, but still able to generate a lot of weak grounders and cheap outs to a strong defense. He is in the 64th percentile for expected opponent slugging and walk rate, and 88th percentile for barrels, all key to his performance. When he himself returned from the injured list, Houser was using his four-seam fastball to left-handers with great effect, but it seems hitters have caught up to it now. They’re posting an average exit velocity of 97 miles per hour on it. However, Houser does still generate whiffs when he ties that heater in with his sinker. His changeup and slider have generated consistently weak contact, and his sinker has an average launch angle of 0 degrees, exactly what he would be hoping for. Have a look at the quality of contact against each of these pitchers: Houser Rea The most immediately noticeable stat is that Houser has a 2.8% solid contact rate, and 4.3% barrel rate, compared to Rea with 7% for each of those. Houser has limited hard and damaging contact much more effectively. Out of this alone, I cannot understand why Rea is getting more innings, with higher average leverage. Rea has gone through six innings just twice, and while he has the occasional gem, such as his eight-strikeout, five-inning shutdown of the Orioles earlier this month, he has also conceded at least three runs through five innings in his other three starts this month, for an ERA that is only rising as the league gets a good look at him. Houser did have a blowup start against the A’s, due mostly to walking hitters, something he hadn’t done much of so far this season. However, he has a track record of producing quality starts and being able to get on top of a lineup in a way that Rea just can’t. Houser does still struggle to corral left-handed batters, in particular with his command. He tries to use his sinker less against them, resulting in a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1:1, but given the lack of barrels and hard-hit balls against him, even walking the occasional lefty isn’t going to harm him often. Is Adrian Houser a perfect pitcher? No. Is he likely, over a five-game stretch, to give you better starts than Colin Rea? Unquestionably. -
Just to clarify, Hiura hasn't registered many high exit velos yet since coming back, and being the hitter he is, he'll need a couple of weeks after two months off to find his form and confidence at the plate, naturally. I'd see if he's doing better by the end of next week in the way he can do at AA, but anything this sample since coming back is probably not an indicator. And I think it's really important he feels on fire and comfortable before coming back to the majors, so I'd maybe say all star break ish if he gets brought up at the earliest Frelick is similar, just needs a little more time to iron out the inconsistencies and get dialled in again. Turang has been hitting hard down there, which surprised me, but he's also been a little sloppy in the field, I wonder if he is tweaking his swing to access a little more power atm, also noticing an increase in strikeouts

