Jake McKibbin
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The Brewers signed Darin Ruf for one simple reason: he doesn’t look like a deer in the headlights when someone holds the ball in their left hand. He’s historically been an above-average hitter against left-handed pitching, and in a couple of outlier seasons, he’s done a huge amount of damage in those situations. He’s known for having a strong walk rate as well as a big strikeout rate, but hit nine home runs in 158 at-bats last season against left-handers to post a .753 OPS, something the Brewers would take in a heartbeat. Let’s take a little dive into a few more of the numbers, to see what else we can expect from the 37-year-old veteran. The Stats For a man who posted a .904 OPS across 312 plate appearances in 2021 (amid the astounding performance of that year’s whole San Francisco Giants team), last season was a huge letdown in which he couldn’t hit right-handed pitching at all. From what was a 22-walk, 28-strikeout season against southpaws in 2021, with an OPS of 1.004, he struck out almost twice as often in 2022, albeit still doing damage when he made contact. He is a potential rebound candidate, although at 37, it’s more likely his bat has just slowed considerably as well as his eye at the plate. In a modest 27 at-bats so far this season against left-handers, he’s averaged a 100.2-MPH exit velocity against the fastball; 95.6 against breaking pitches; and 97.5 against offspeed offerings. His minimal time at the plate has led to excessive swing and miss against breaking balls, but he’s crushing the pitches he connects with to the tune of an expected slugging percentage of .539 and an expected batting average of .305. This guy is still hitting, and were it not for how well LaMonte Wade, Jr. is playing, he might not have been cut by San Francisco at all. As you can see, he does most of his damage when he can free his arms, and struggles to create quality contact when pitched inside. Despite this, because of his very patient approach at the plate, he has a lower swing rate on the inside portion of the plate, waiting for a pitch he can drive early in the count. One benefit of his experience is that he knows his weaknesses and manages them well. Another facet of his game is his productivity down in the strike zone, with high exit velocities and lower whiff rates. He recorded eight runs above average against sinkers last season and nine in 2021, with two so far this year. Pitchers like, say, Jordan Montgomery on Tuesday evening will be especially wary of this. He also likes the changeup, which makes sense in that any pitch down in the zone and away from his body has historically been an area of dominance for him. How he can be used Ruf is predominantly a pull hitter who is poor defensively, but given that the Brewers are the worst offense in the league against left-handers, he is exactly what they need: a pinch-hitter late on against lefties, and a platoon DH, with the occasional start at first base sprinkled in there. Expect to see him tonight, and potentially some fireworks, finally, against a left-handed starter. What do you think of the Brewers new lefty masher?
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Still searching for a consistent source of power to lengthen the lineup against left-handed hurlers, the Brewers signed a notable (if limited) slugger on Monday. How does he fit into their roster? Image courtesy of © Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports The Brewers signed Darin Ruf for one simple reason: he doesn’t look like a deer in the headlights when someone holds the ball in their left hand. He’s historically been an above-average hitter against left-handed pitching, and in a couple of outlier seasons, he’s done a huge amount of damage in those situations. He’s known for having a strong walk rate as well as a big strikeout rate, but hit nine home runs in 158 at-bats last season against left-handers to post a .753 OPS, something the Brewers would take in a heartbeat. Let’s take a little dive into a few more of the numbers, to see what else we can expect from the 37-year-old veteran. The Stats For a man who posted a .904 OPS across 312 plate appearances in 2021 (amid the astounding performance of that year’s whole San Francisco Giants team), last season was a huge letdown in which he couldn’t hit right-handed pitching at all. From what was a 22-walk, 28-strikeout season against southpaws in 2021, with an OPS of 1.004, he struck out almost twice as often in 2022, albeit still doing damage when he made contact. He is a potential rebound candidate, although at 37, it’s more likely his bat has just slowed considerably as well as his eye at the plate. In a modest 27 at-bats so far this season against left-handers, he’s averaged a 100.2-MPH exit velocity against the fastball; 95.6 against breaking pitches; and 97.5 against offspeed offerings. His minimal time at the plate has led to excessive swing and miss against breaking balls, but he’s crushing the pitches he connects with to the tune of an expected slugging percentage of .539 and an expected batting average of .305. This guy is still hitting, and were it not for how well LaMonte Wade, Jr. is playing, he might not have been cut by San Francisco at all. As you can see, he does most of his damage when he can free his arms, and struggles to create quality contact when pitched inside. Despite this, because of his very patient approach at the plate, he has a lower swing rate on the inside portion of the plate, waiting for a pitch he can drive early in the count. One benefit of his experience is that he knows his weaknesses and manages them well. Another facet of his game is his productivity down in the strike zone, with high exit velocities and lower whiff rates. He recorded eight runs above average against sinkers last season and nine in 2021, with two so far this year. Pitchers like, say, Jordan Montgomery on Tuesday evening will be especially wary of this. He also likes the changeup, which makes sense in that any pitch down in the zone and away from his body has historically been an area of dominance for him. How he can be used Ruf is predominantly a pull hitter who is poor defensively, but given that the Brewers are the worst offense in the league against left-handers, he is exactly what they need: a pinch-hitter late on against lefties, and a platoon DH, with the occasional start at first base sprinkled in there. Expect to see him tonight, and potentially some fireworks, finally, against a left-handed starter. What do you think of the Brewers new lefty masher? View full article
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Also nice to have your three best starters this season going to the cardinals series with peralta Miley and burnes
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With a player and team who have been through as much together as the Brewers and Keston Hiura have, there are bound to be complications when considering giving things another try. In his case, there are two distinct questions to ask: What boxes does he still need to check in order to earn another chance, and what other move would open a place for him on both the 26- and 40-man rosters? Reasons for Caution Hiura produced an OPS of 1.181 last season in Nashville, across an admittedly small sample of 59 plate appearances. There, his strikeout rate was a viable 25.4 percent. Yet, he couldn’t translate that success to the majors. Part of this is down to the inconsistency of jumping around, not finding regular playing time, as well as what’s very likely a slight mental block at this stage. As such, the last thing you want to do with a promising bat in what is likely a last chance would be to bring him up and not use him, or react adversely to small sample results. Hiura needs to feel the confidence within the club, and confidence within himself having made this journey several times before. There is one other statistic that stands out, though again, a small sample. In late innings of close games, Hiura has 12 at bats, with just two hits and six strikeouts, implying that he perhaps needs to show his improvements off under pressure a little more before he can cope with the demands of playing in the midst of a big-league pennant race again. He has an .868 OPS with runners in scoring position and two outs–again, slightly below his current production, and something to keep an eye on as the season progresses. The more confidence he develops in himself and his approach, the more these stats will increase. How Does He Fit? DFA Jesse Winker Winker is currently occupying the DH slot for the Brewers, predominantly against right-handers, with William Contreras or others splitting the role when facing left-handed pitchers. He is expected to get some limited time in the outfield, and has shown good plate discipline but a total lack of power in the batter’s box. The Brewers are likely to give him a little more time to turn things around and regain the power stroke that made him such a fearsome hitter in Cincinnati, which would allow Hiura more time in the minors to solidify his base, increase the level of comfort in his approach, and make sure that he’s fully ready when he does come up again. As Matt Trueblood said though, time may be running short for Winker. Hiura can fulfill all the roles Jesse Winker currently performs and more, given just how awful Winker is in the outfield grass. He would get regular playing time in this position on the roster, mostly against right-handers but occasionally against left-handed pitching, giving him a real chance to thrive. One thing most people agree on is that Hiura needs regular playing time and opportunities. DFA Luke Voit This roster decision seems like it may be coming sooner rather than later, with Voit scuffling horribly against left-handed pitching, and showing a serious lack of power. He has made some very agile plays at first base, but in reality, his bat hasn’t performed quite the way the Brewers would have hoped, and he could be traded or cut by the end of the month. This may come a little too quickly for Hiura, as well as resigning him to far fewer plate appearances, and solely against left-handers (when they sit Rowdy Tellez). Tellez is struggling significantly in his few at-bats off southpaws so far, so the Brewers need someone who can hit left-handers, but to throw this burden on Hiura after last season may be a touch presumptuous, particularly if you want long-term success from him. DFA Mike Brosseau As is the case with Voit, Brosseau is in the lineup to hit lefties, but his inability to field balls makes him a liability at both first and third base, resulting in him playing as the DH against left-handed starters and getting just five at-bats in May so far. Again, Hiura shouldn’t be brought up in this case (he needs regular playing time), but Brosseau’s time in Milwaukee may be coming to an end in the short term. The most likely point of time is when Luis Urias returns from the 60-day injured list at the end of the month, making it even less likely that Hiura will be taking his place on the 40-man roster. *** Hiura provides a power bat that can carry an offense and punish pitchers in a way the Brewers aren’t managing to do consistently. If they want someone as an everyday DH, that hitter needs to be a serious slugger, posting an OPS of .800 or more, and they’re just not getting that level of production at the moment. It seems a matter of time before Hiura makes the big-league roster again, and when he does, prepare for fireworks.
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As the Brewers' quest for a more reliably productive designated hitter continues, Keston Hiura remains an interesting potential solution. Why isn't he already with the parent club again, and what needs to happen in order for him to get one last shot? Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman, Katie Stratman / USA TODAY NETWORK With a player and team who have been through as much together as the Brewers and Keston Hiura have, there are bound to be complications when considering giving things another try. In his case, there are two distinct questions to ask: What boxes does he still need to check in order to earn another chance, and what other move would open a place for him on both the 26- and 40-man rosters? Reasons for Caution Hiura produced an OPS of 1.181 last season in Nashville, across an admittedly small sample of 59 plate appearances. There, his strikeout rate was a viable 25.4 percent. Yet, he couldn’t translate that success to the majors. Part of this is down to the inconsistency of jumping around, not finding regular playing time, as well as what’s very likely a slight mental block at this stage. As such, the last thing you want to do with a promising bat in what is likely a last chance would be to bring him up and not use him, or react adversely to small sample results. Hiura needs to feel the confidence within the club, and confidence within himself having made this journey several times before. There is one other statistic that stands out, though again, a small sample. In late innings of close games, Hiura has 12 at bats, with just two hits and six strikeouts, implying that he perhaps needs to show his improvements off under pressure a little more before he can cope with the demands of playing in the midst of a big-league pennant race again. He has an .868 OPS with runners in scoring position and two outs–again, slightly below his current production, and something to keep an eye on as the season progresses. The more confidence he develops in himself and his approach, the more these stats will increase. How Does He Fit? DFA Jesse Winker Winker is currently occupying the DH slot for the Brewers, predominantly against right-handers, with William Contreras or others splitting the role when facing left-handed pitchers. He is expected to get some limited time in the outfield, and has shown good plate discipline but a total lack of power in the batter’s box. The Brewers are likely to give him a little more time to turn things around and regain the power stroke that made him such a fearsome hitter in Cincinnati, which would allow Hiura more time in the minors to solidify his base, increase the level of comfort in his approach, and make sure that he’s fully ready when he does come up again. As Matt Trueblood said though, time may be running short for Winker. Hiura can fulfill all the roles Jesse Winker currently performs and more, given just how awful Winker is in the outfield grass. He would get regular playing time in this position on the roster, mostly against right-handers but occasionally against left-handed pitching, giving him a real chance to thrive. One thing most people agree on is that Hiura needs regular playing time and opportunities. DFA Luke Voit This roster decision seems like it may be coming sooner rather than later, with Voit scuffling horribly against left-handed pitching, and showing a serious lack of power. He has made some very agile plays at first base, but in reality, his bat hasn’t performed quite the way the Brewers would have hoped, and he could be traded or cut by the end of the month. This may come a little too quickly for Hiura, as well as resigning him to far fewer plate appearances, and solely against left-handers (when they sit Rowdy Tellez). Tellez is struggling significantly in his few at-bats off southpaws so far, so the Brewers need someone who can hit left-handers, but to throw this burden on Hiura after last season may be a touch presumptuous, particularly if you want long-term success from him. DFA Mike Brosseau As is the case with Voit, Brosseau is in the lineup to hit lefties, but his inability to field balls makes him a liability at both first and third base, resulting in him playing as the DH against left-handed starters and getting just five at-bats in May so far. Again, Hiura shouldn’t be brought up in this case (he needs regular playing time), but Brosseau’s time in Milwaukee may be coming to an end in the short term. The most likely point of time is when Luis Urias returns from the 60-day injured list at the end of the month, making it even less likely that Hiura will be taking his place on the 40-man roster. *** Hiura provides a power bat that can carry an offense and punish pitchers in a way the Brewers aren’t managing to do consistently. If they want someone as an everyday DH, that hitter needs to be a serious slugger, posting an OPS of .800 or more, and they’re just not getting that level of production at the moment. It seems a matter of time before Hiura makes the big-league roster again, and when he does, prepare for fireworks. View full article
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As the Brewers' offensive rough patch continues, it's only natural to look to the Triple-A roster to consider alternatives to the current group of hitters. There's someone down there raking. The question is: are you ready to trust him again? Keston Hiura has had several chances with the Brewers. He demonstrated formidable promise in his first half-season, though his underlying numbers told a less inspiring story even then. He has struck out at alarming rates in all of his trials in the majors, and although he makes high-quality contact when he does put the ball in play, his slumps were too excessive and damaging to keep him on the major-league roster–particularly given his lack of a defensive home, and his inability to damage left-handed pitching. He’s currently down in Nashville, where he just hit his 12th home run of the year, and making hay. Could this time be different? The New & Improved Hiura has usually been quite successful in Triple A with the Nashville Sounds, but what is he doing differently that’s generating a modicum of hope? Well, historically, even despite the vast power output, he has still struck out with incredible regularity at the highest level of the minor-league system, failing to put the ball in play 31.6% of the time in his stints in 2021 and 2022. This, as you’d suspect, led to even higher strikeout rates against the higher-quality pitching in the majors, and made him almost un-rosterable. However, after a sluggish spring training, and a high strikeout start to the season while adapting his swing, he’s struck out at a 22.2% clip over his last 28 days, which falls even further (to just 17.9%) since April 21st. He has just two punchouts in his last 18 plate appearances. Hiura’s biggest issue has always been the high fastballs, with a golf-like swing destroying pitches low in the zone. In 2022, he swung and missed on over 50% of pitches in the upper third of the strike zone, with over a 40% whiff rate overall on the year. The contrast in his effectiveness depending on pitch location is most emphasized by his expected stats on sinkers vs four seamers; Four Seam Fastball – xBA .198, xSlg .489 Sinkers – xBA .349, xSlg .700 He has tried reducing the leg kick to improve his timing on those high fastballs, and this season, he’s worked on eliminating the leg kick altogether and just relying on his hands and hips to generate power. Have a look at two contrasting videos, one from 2022 and one from this season. Here's what a two-home game in Nashville looked like last year: And here he is hitting his 10th dinger of 2023. As you can see, this season, Hiura gets his foot down almost as soon as the pitcher starts his motion, leaving himself with a lot more time to read and react to the pitch. It’s resulted in a much higher contact rate up in the zone so far, as well as a better (lower) chase rate. His at-bats have been more selective, and he’s had better timing on the high fastball, not necessarily doing damage, but fouling off pitches, putting balls in play and then doing damage on any mistakes or pitches low in the strike zone. He’s forcing pitchers into areas they don’t want to be, and then he’s punishing them for it. He’s showing growth as the season goes on, demonstrating a better propensity to take his walks in May, though this could be down to being pitched around a little bit more. His declining strikeouts and improved plate discipline are huge developments, and he’s been a far cry from the three-pitch, three-whiff outs we saw with regularity last season. Secondly, he’s started to show an ability to hit left handers this season, hitting five home runs in 37 at-bats, with a manageable 25% strikeout rate. His OPS is 1.105, and he’s hitting the changeup effectively–a big bonus, given he had a .168 xwOBA against it last season. Forty plate appearances is a small sample, but it certainly shows some promise. Defensively, Hiura appears to have found a home in some respects, showing himself to have average speed and a solid enough glove in left field, with some highlight reel plays, including an outfield assist at home plate Wednesday night. It could easily be argued that he’s a better option than Jesse Winker, who has lost all semblance of speed, as well as being able to fill in at first base in an average way (also providing more range than Rowdy Tellez). Being able to use him to rest Yelich or Tellez on occasion would make him far more attractive to Craig Counsell. Tomorrow, we'll talk more about the understandable reservations the team might still have about calling up Hiura, but also how he can fit on the 26-man roster soon. In the meantime, let us know what you see as different in Hiura this year, and whether you believe these changes can translate to MLB. View full article
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Keston Hiura has had several chances with the Brewers. He demonstrated formidable promise in his first half-season, though his underlying numbers told a less inspiring story even then. He has struck out at alarming rates in all of his trials in the majors, and although he makes high-quality contact when he does put the ball in play, his slumps were too excessive and damaging to keep him on the major-league roster–particularly given his lack of a defensive home, and his inability to damage left-handed pitching. He’s currently down in Nashville, where he just hit his 12th home run of the year, and making hay. Could this time be different? The New & Improved Hiura has usually been quite successful in Triple A with the Nashville Sounds, but what is he doing differently that’s generating a modicum of hope? Well, historically, even despite the vast power output, he has still struck out with incredible regularity at the highest level of the minor-league system, failing to put the ball in play 31.6% of the time in his stints in 2021 and 2022. This, as you’d suspect, led to even higher strikeout rates against the higher-quality pitching in the majors, and made him almost un-rosterable. However, after a sluggish spring training, and a high strikeout start to the season while adapting his swing, he’s struck out at a 22.2% clip over his last 28 days, which falls even further (to just 17.9%) since April 21st. He has just two punchouts in his last 18 plate appearances. Hiura’s biggest issue has always been the high fastballs, with a golf-like swing destroying pitches low in the zone. In 2022, he swung and missed on over 50% of pitches in the upper third of the strike zone, with over a 40% whiff rate overall on the year. The contrast in his effectiveness depending on pitch location is most emphasized by his expected stats on sinkers vs four seamers; Four Seam Fastball – xBA .198, xSlg .489 Sinkers – xBA .349, xSlg .700 He has tried reducing the leg kick to improve his timing on those high fastballs, and this season, he’s worked on eliminating the leg kick altogether and just relying on his hands and hips to generate power. Have a look at two contrasting videos, one from 2022 and one from this season. Here's what a two-home game in Nashville looked like last year: And here he is hitting his 10th dinger of 2023. As you can see, this season, Hiura gets his foot down almost as soon as the pitcher starts his motion, leaving himself with a lot more time to read and react to the pitch. It’s resulted in a much higher contact rate up in the zone so far, as well as a better (lower) chase rate. His at-bats have been more selective, and he’s had better timing on the high fastball, not necessarily doing damage, but fouling off pitches, putting balls in play and then doing damage on any mistakes or pitches low in the strike zone. He’s forcing pitchers into areas they don’t want to be, and then he’s punishing them for it. He’s showing growth as the season goes on, demonstrating a better propensity to take his walks in May, though this could be down to being pitched around a little bit more. His declining strikeouts and improved plate discipline are huge developments, and he’s been a far cry from the three-pitch, three-whiff outs we saw with regularity last season. Secondly, he’s started to show an ability to hit left handers this season, hitting five home runs in 37 at-bats, with a manageable 25% strikeout rate. His OPS is 1.105, and he’s hitting the changeup effectively–a big bonus, given he had a .168 xwOBA against it last season. Forty plate appearances is a small sample, but it certainly shows some promise. Defensively, Hiura appears to have found a home in some respects, showing himself to have average speed and a solid enough glove in left field, with some highlight reel plays, including an outfield assist at home plate Wednesday night. It could easily be argued that he’s a better option than Jesse Winker, who has lost all semblance of speed, as well as being able to fill in at first base in an average way (also providing more range than Rowdy Tellez). Being able to use him to rest Yelich or Tellez on occasion would make him far more attractive to Craig Counsell. Tomorrow, we'll talk more about the understandable reservations the team might still have about calling up Hiura, but also how he can fit on the 26-man roster soon. In the meantime, let us know what you see as different in Hiura this year, and whether you believe these changes can translate to MLB.
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2023 Minor League Transaction Thread
Jake McKibbin replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Right knee soreness (not the knee he had surgery on last season). Team thinks it's just a minor niggle but being especially careful given his track record on the treatment table -
This doesn't look quite so viable now, a 2.29 WHIP over his last 5.2 innings
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Uribe's injury is right knee soreness, they don't think it's serious but worth noting he did have knee surgery in April last year Edit: Surgery was on his left knee
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It's a lot more than that, his range has been immense in the outfield on a regular basis, something Hunter Renfroe really didn't have last season. He's starting to get a bit of a handle on things but if he can tap into his power even semi regularly, that's a great outcome Plus he's just fun
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So who would we prefer to win tonight.... Cubs or Cards?
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Brice Turang has been a big upgrade already for the Brewers. A key part of the team’s league-best defense, the rookie second baseman trails only William Contreras in Defensive Runs Saved with 5. Compare that to the sad decline of Kolten Wong, who props up the league with -8 DRS so far and a ghastly 43 OPS+. Turang has provided huge range to cope with the loss of the shift; smooth actions; and an accurate throwing arm from all sorts of off-balance angles, something that was desperately needed given the heavy ground-ball approach so far this season from their pitchers. He started off brightly with the bat, showing why his contact skills were hyped and using his smooth swing to spray the ball to all fields, but did have a dip where his strikeouts rose alarmingly, and he struggled to make any meaningful contact with the ball. After a short break over a weekend in which the Brewers faced only left-handed starters, Turang has looked far more dangerous and consistent at the plate. What did we expect? Since the Brewers picked up Turang in the first round of the 2018 draft, the scouting report has been fairly consistent with what he has produced–smooth actions, good range at shortstop, with strong bat-to-ball skills and (hopefully) developing power. During his climb through the minors, he always put up numbers right around the league average, until his final half-season at Nashville. There, he managed to elevate the ball and drive it with more authority, while also cutting down a little on his strikeouts. He hit nine home runs in July and September, a sign he was potentially ready for big-league at-bats. It’s important to also recognize that, as a high-school draftee, he was considerably younger than his competition at every level of the minors. The Brewers needed to move on from Wong, who (although he did show more pop than expected) was subpar in the field. Given the struggles with injuries, the Brewers were hoping for some sort of consistent contact profile to go with above-average defense, and someone who could legitimately cover an injury to Willy Adames and the resultant hole at shortstop. The Story So Far Turang burst onto the scene initially, making some rangy plays and demonstrating a strong knowledge of the strike zone, with an 80th-percentile chase rate after the first two weeks. He did have some swing-and-miss inside the zone, but was making frequent, valuable contact, including a huge grand slam against the New York Mets in the home opener. Since then, however, things have gone downhill, with pitchers attacking him in the zone a lot more often early in the count, and his 25th-percentile whiff rate has come to the fore when he falls behind. If you’d suggested that Joey Wiemer would strike out considerably less than Brice Turang in the majors, most scouts would have laughed. He is sporting a 28.4% strikeout rate, and is almost the inverse of Wiemer, in that he has been targeted heavily by fastballs and changeups, to which he hasn’t found much of an answer (both have an xBA of under .200). Notably, he has just a 16% hard-hit rate against changeups, and 20% hard-hit rate against sinkers. On the contrary, however, he is really taking advantage of breaking pitches, to the tune of a .421 batting average and .526 slugging percentage, whiffing just 25% of the time on such pitches. He has begun to get some more results in the past week, hitting .421/.500/.474 in his last seven games, but he hasn’t improved in any meaningful category against the fastball, with lower exit velocities and hard-hit rates so far this month compared to Mach and April. He is striking out less often against it however, recording four hits in eight AB’s ending on the fastball (11 PA’s) with an xBA of .338, due to a lower line drive launch angle of 11 degrees in May. If he can start to increase the pressure on the fastball, we can start to see some of the damage come through on breaking pitches again. Defensively, he has been exactly as advertised, making everything look so simple, and covering a lot of ground to both sides, but in particular with a +3 metric to his left side. This is especially beneficial due to the complete lack of range of the Brewers’ first basemen. His accuracy has been a key component to the Brewers’ league-leading defense. On the basepaths, he has also been a handful, recording five steals, with a very good Statcast-recorded Sprint Speed of 29 ft/sec and 2 Bolts (where the runner averages over 30 ft/sec for one dash). He has the potential to be a 25-30 steals guy regularly, but he does need to find his way on base a little more often. Stand Out Stats In 10 plate appearances so far against left-handers, Turang has five strikeouts and zero hits He has yet to record a hit in the eighth or ninth inning of a game, in 23 plate appearances Has a .785 OPS when he’s swung at the first pitch, compared to .597 when he’s taken the first pitch Has hit just .130 against starting pitchers the first time up, but .458 against them the second time through The Deeper Dive Looking at the strikeouts from Turang, one thing that jumps out immediately is how many pitches he’s whiffed on in the meatball section, swinging and missing on 30 percent of middle-middle pitches. His approach so far, looking at his zone swing %, is to try and attack anything inside and over the heart of the plate, being much pickier with anything on the outer third of the strike zone. While he does regularly create line drives in this area (over 50% of balls in the outer third are line drives) he struggles to create high exit velocities, and as such, he’s trying to avoid swinging on these early in the count. He’s averaged 78 mph off the bat in the zone down and away–one reason why he’s struggled with both sinkers and changeups while hitting considerably better against four-seam fastballs, due to his strength up in the zone. Most left-handed hitters are particularly adept at pulling pitches over the heart of the plate, but Turang has struggled so far to do damage in that area. He isn’t creating the exit velocities to consistently hurt pitchers when they make mistakes, and he’s whiffing far too often (as previously mentioned) on these pitches. In the lower third of the strike zone, he’s hitting soft ground balls far too regularly, and with his contact profile, it’s something he can’t afford to do. Where he has made hay so far is when pitches are left up, creating ideal launch angles 40% of the time, allowing him to challenge the outfield grass with regularity. Also, although he has very low chase rates, when he does chase, he struggles to make any contact, with his out-of-zone contact at 42%, compared to the MLB average of 58.2%. Against better pitchers, this is unsustainable, and he needs to do a better job of fouling off pitches and dragging ABs deeper, given the skills he has at putting bat on ball. He’s currently facing four pitches per plate appearance, but have a look below and you’ll see how often he swings and misses at anything outside; Final Word From his performance in his first month, you can see clearly the areas in which you would expect Turang to begin to perform better, and the areas in which he can start to advance as a hitter. His ability to stay in the at-bat when pitchers do force him to chase is a must, and could do a lot to turn around his strikeout and whiff numbers, bolstering his contact-heavy approach. He has gone mostly to the opposite field and up the middle with his batted balls so far, and done nearly all of his damage on pitches inside, belt high. His current whiff rate over the heart of the plate is unsustainable, but if he can develop an ability to do damage on these pitches as well, and pull the mistakes, then he could take a step up to the next level as a hitter. His quality defense and base running give him a floor that should allow him to be a successful big leaguer even if he is in the 90 WRC+ range, but the Brewers will be hoping that, at just 23 years old, he has a lot of growth ahead of him.
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After we tackled Joey WIemer yesterday, let's turn our attention today to the other Brewers rookie who's become a staple of the starting lineup. What are the early returns on second baseman Brice Turang? Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Brice Turang has been a big upgrade already for the Brewers. A key part of the team’s league-best defense, the rookie second baseman trails only William Contreras in Defensive Runs Saved with 5. Compare that to the sad decline of Kolten Wong, who props up the league with -8 DRS so far and a ghastly 43 OPS+. Turang has provided huge range to cope with the loss of the shift; smooth actions; and an accurate throwing arm from all sorts of off-balance angles, something that was desperately needed given the heavy ground-ball approach so far this season from their pitchers. He started off brightly with the bat, showing why his contact skills were hyped and using his smooth swing to spray the ball to all fields, but did have a dip where his strikeouts rose alarmingly, and he struggled to make any meaningful contact with the ball. After a short break over a weekend in which the Brewers faced only left-handed starters, Turang has looked far more dangerous and consistent at the plate. What did we expect? Since the Brewers picked up Turang in the first round of the 2018 draft, the scouting report has been fairly consistent with what he has produced–smooth actions, good range at shortstop, with strong bat-to-ball skills and (hopefully) developing power. During his climb through the minors, he always put up numbers right around the league average, until his final half-season at Nashville. There, he managed to elevate the ball and drive it with more authority, while also cutting down a little on his strikeouts. He hit nine home runs in July and September, a sign he was potentially ready for big-league at-bats. It’s important to also recognize that, as a high-school draftee, he was considerably younger than his competition at every level of the minors. The Brewers needed to move on from Wong, who (although he did show more pop than expected) was subpar in the field. Given the struggles with injuries, the Brewers were hoping for some sort of consistent contact profile to go with above-average defense, and someone who could legitimately cover an injury to Willy Adames and the resultant hole at shortstop. The Story So Far Turang burst onto the scene initially, making some rangy plays and demonstrating a strong knowledge of the strike zone, with an 80th-percentile chase rate after the first two weeks. He did have some swing-and-miss inside the zone, but was making frequent, valuable contact, including a huge grand slam against the New York Mets in the home opener. Since then, however, things have gone downhill, with pitchers attacking him in the zone a lot more often early in the count, and his 25th-percentile whiff rate has come to the fore when he falls behind. If you’d suggested that Joey Wiemer would strike out considerably less than Brice Turang in the majors, most scouts would have laughed. He is sporting a 28.4% strikeout rate, and is almost the inverse of Wiemer, in that he has been targeted heavily by fastballs and changeups, to which he hasn’t found much of an answer (both have an xBA of under .200). Notably, he has just a 16% hard-hit rate against changeups, and 20% hard-hit rate against sinkers. On the contrary, however, he is really taking advantage of breaking pitches, to the tune of a .421 batting average and .526 slugging percentage, whiffing just 25% of the time on such pitches. He has begun to get some more results in the past week, hitting .421/.500/.474 in his last seven games, but he hasn’t improved in any meaningful category against the fastball, with lower exit velocities and hard-hit rates so far this month compared to Mach and April. He is striking out less often against it however, recording four hits in eight AB’s ending on the fastball (11 PA’s) with an xBA of .338, due to a lower line drive launch angle of 11 degrees in May. If he can start to increase the pressure on the fastball, we can start to see some of the damage come through on breaking pitches again. Defensively, he has been exactly as advertised, making everything look so simple, and covering a lot of ground to both sides, but in particular with a +3 metric to his left side. This is especially beneficial due to the complete lack of range of the Brewers’ first basemen. His accuracy has been a key component to the Brewers’ league-leading defense. On the basepaths, he has also been a handful, recording five steals, with a very good Statcast-recorded Sprint Speed of 29 ft/sec and 2 Bolts (where the runner averages over 30 ft/sec for one dash). He has the potential to be a 25-30 steals guy regularly, but he does need to find his way on base a little more often. Stand Out Stats In 10 plate appearances so far against left-handers, Turang has five strikeouts and zero hits He has yet to record a hit in the eighth or ninth inning of a game, in 23 plate appearances Has a .785 OPS when he’s swung at the first pitch, compared to .597 when he’s taken the first pitch Has hit just .130 against starting pitchers the first time up, but .458 against them the second time through The Deeper Dive Looking at the strikeouts from Turang, one thing that jumps out immediately is how many pitches he’s whiffed on in the meatball section, swinging and missing on 30 percent of middle-middle pitches. His approach so far, looking at his zone swing %, is to try and attack anything inside and over the heart of the plate, being much pickier with anything on the outer third of the strike zone. While he does regularly create line drives in this area (over 50% of balls in the outer third are line drives) he struggles to create high exit velocities, and as such, he’s trying to avoid swinging on these early in the count. He’s averaged 78 mph off the bat in the zone down and away–one reason why he’s struggled with both sinkers and changeups while hitting considerably better against four-seam fastballs, due to his strength up in the zone. Most left-handed hitters are particularly adept at pulling pitches over the heart of the plate, but Turang has struggled so far to do damage in that area. He isn’t creating the exit velocities to consistently hurt pitchers when they make mistakes, and he’s whiffing far too often (as previously mentioned) on these pitches. In the lower third of the strike zone, he’s hitting soft ground balls far too regularly, and with his contact profile, it’s something he can’t afford to do. Where he has made hay so far is when pitches are left up, creating ideal launch angles 40% of the time, allowing him to challenge the outfield grass with regularity. Also, although he has very low chase rates, when he does chase, he struggles to make any contact, with his out-of-zone contact at 42%, compared to the MLB average of 58.2%. Against better pitchers, this is unsustainable, and he needs to do a better job of fouling off pitches and dragging ABs deeper, given the skills he has at putting bat on ball. He’s currently facing four pitches per plate appearance, but have a look below and you’ll see how often he swings and misses at anything outside; Final Word From his performance in his first month, you can see clearly the areas in which you would expect Turang to begin to perform better, and the areas in which he can start to advance as a hitter. His ability to stay in the at-bat when pitchers do force him to chase is a must, and could do a lot to turn around his strikeout and whiff numbers, bolstering his contact-heavy approach. He has gone mostly to the opposite field and up the middle with his batted balls so far, and done nearly all of his damage on pitches inside, belt high. His current whiff rate over the heart of the plate is unsustainable, but if he can develop an ability to do damage on these pitches as well, and pull the mistakes, then he could take a step up to the next level as a hitter. His quality defense and base running give him a floor that should allow him to be a successful big leaguer even if he is in the 90 WRC+ range, but the Brewers will be hoping that, at just 23 years old, he has a lot of growth ahead of him. View full article
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Given early returns, Turang and Wiemer may be cheapish to extend, and Wiemer especially could have a breakout.. Chourio may be difficult given the hype but it depends how he and Frelick perform once they hit the majors. If they struggle then a cheaper deal is on the cards, but you need some sort of risk factor on the Brewers to get a cheaper deal. If anyone becomes a big difference maker pre-extension, then they'll not accept a below market deal
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We're coming up on six weeks of seeing Brewers rookie outfielder Joey Wiemer in action. It's been everything we expected, both bad and good. Let's take a closer look at how he's performed. Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Joey Wiemer is a player who makes you love baseball. From his gangly running style, legs all akimbo; to the enormous hacks he takes at the baseball; to his refusal to take it easy down the first base line, this is a player who looks slightly less polished than most of his major-league counterparts. How could you not love his flying catches in the outfield; be drawn to each of his at-bats just on the off chance he gets into one; and even if he tops one on a routine ground ball to short, he has the wheels to leg it out anyway. On top of that, almost no one has run on him since the opening weeks of the season, with his quick release and cannon of an arm. Great Expectations While he is a player with huge four- or five-tool potential, he has had a few growing pains in reaching the majors. Coming into the season, we were a little less hot on him due to the meteoric rises of both Jackson Chourio and the hitting machine that was Sal Frelick, and also a slight slump in the middle of last year at Biloxi when he was struggling with a wrist injury. Prior to that, he had won the Brewers’ Prospect of the Year award in 2021, hitting 27 home runs with a .959 OPS across both levels of A ball. When he made the jump to the Triple-A Nashville Sounds, he cut his strikeout rate considerably, from 30% at Double A to just 19.5%--a huge improvement considering there were concerns over whether he could make consistent contact with the size and speed of his swing. He also rediscovered his power stroke, slugging .520 over 174 plate appearances with six home runs, a triple and 15 doubles, to go along with a 12% walk rate. He was a bit under the radar coming into spring training, with most expecting him to be on the outside looking into the early outfield mix, but his quality defense in the outfield as well as his improving eye at the plate, and most importantly his right-handed bat, made the Brewers call him up just a single day into the season, after Luis Urias’s hamstring went out. In terms of his ceiling, it’s clear to see the amount of power he can generate, the speed on the base paths, the fielding and throwing arm in the outfield. There are questions over his hit tool, but this is a player who, when healthy, has hit over .270 in every level of the minor-league system. The sky's the limit for this baby-faced assassin, if he can make adjustments to major-league pitching. The Story So Far Early on in the season, Wiemer was getting by using his speed to beat out ground balls with regularity, with a lot of topped contact on fastballs and a complete inability to square up any sort of breaking pitch. Since then, he has struggled with a change in the pitching approach, and has been looking out of sorts at the plate, with an increasing propensity to swing and miss and a lack of consistency in his plate appearances. He hit much better against the fastball, whiffing on less than 20% of them, which is why he’s been fed a very steady diet of breaking pitches–45.8% to be exact. On these breaking pitches he has a batting average of just .167 and a slugging percentage of .208. However, he has recently started to make much more consistent hard contact, suggesting a change in approach and perhaps an adjustment to the extra break that major-league pitchers will have on their pitches. His defense, meanwhile, has been magnificent, grading out as slightly above-average in center field and an absolute weapon in right, with four defensive runs saved in total, and being in the 91st percentile for outs above average, 87th percentile for arm strength (which is furthered by how he throws without any momentum), and 78th percentile for outfield jump. The jump is particularly impressive given that his routes haven’t been great, but his reactions have been the best in the league. It's been consistently excellent and has almost assured his place in the lineup for a few months, given the injury crisis around him with Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick. His derring-do on the base paths has been incredibly fun to watch as well, with an average sprint speed of 29.1ft/sec, good enough for 21st in the league, going home to first in 4.23 seconds. He’s had five steals so far, being caught once while attempting a fairly reckless third-base steal, and also been caught trying to steal third on infield grounders that just weren’t an option. Part of the excitement is that you don’t quite know what he’ll do next, and his decisions on the base paths will improve over time, as well as his steal total if he can get on base just a little bit more often. Stand Out Stats - Wiemer has just a .390 OPS on the road compared to a 1.061 OPS at American Family Field - With runners in scoring position, he almost always puts the ball in play, with just one strikeout in 28 plate appearances. - With such a violent swing, he’s still only hovering around the league average in strikeout percentage, and 60th percentile in walk rates. - He doesn’t miss belt-high pitches, with just a 5.4% whiff rate. - Against left handers, who throw fewer sliders to him and mostly use fastball/changeup combinations, he has a 1.061 OPS The Deeper Look Wiemer’s struggles are shown in two simple graphics from Baseball Savant. As you can see below, his whiff rates in the bottom part of the zone are astronomical, a byproduct of his struggles with breaking pitches. Even when he does make contact, it’s mostly weak, topped balls, leading to the excessive ground ball rates you see below. When pitchers have kept their breaking balls down, he’s almost guaranteeing them an easy out. When they get ahead in the count, they’ve fed him a steady onslaught of pitches down and away, resulting in 15 of his 25 strikeouts. For further emphasis, he hasn’t gotten a hit yet against a sweeping slider. Quite simply, Wiemer hasn’t adjusted to the amount of break he’s seeing on these pitches, but it’s almost inevitable that he will catch up. His expected batting average against these is starting to creep up, from .063 just three weeks ago to now breaking the Mendoza line. He also needs to do a better job when he gets ahead in the count, and working the count to his advantage. Only eight of his plate appearances have ended with him ahead in the count. Christian Yelich has had three-ball counts in 38 plate appearances so far this season, Joey Wiemer has managed this in just 21. He could do a better job, perhaps, with an approach closer to what we’ve seen from Tellez so far, waiting on a specific pitch to swing at and consciously laying off breaking balls early in the count and sitting on higher fastballs or hanging breakers until he has to swing. Final Notes While his swing doesn’t look technically fit for major league pitching, he has remarkably fast hands, and it’s fair to say that so far, he hasn’t struggled to catch up to the fastballs. He does have small adjustments to make in his approach, and his eye at the plate will only improve the more major-league pitchers he sees, something we are already starting to see. Most of his slugging so far has come against offspeed pitches, to the tune of a .500 slugging (even before his home run against Tony Gonsolin’s splitter). Wiemer's talent is there for all to see, and while he could be an impact player similar to Kyle Tucker, his defense provides a very high floor for him to bring value to the Brewers as he learns on the job. It’s important to note how normal this is, Jarred Kelenic took 500 plate appearances before his ability started to show this season. If Wiemer can get it to click by the time the stretch comes around later this season, the Brewers will have one hell of a player on their hands. View full article
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Joey Wiemer is a player who makes you love baseball. From his gangly running style, legs all akimbo; to the enormous hacks he takes at the baseball; to his refusal to take it easy down the first base line, this is a player who looks slightly less polished than most of his major-league counterparts. How could you not love his flying catches in the outfield; be drawn to each of his at-bats just on the off chance he gets into one; and even if he tops one on a routine ground ball to short, he has the wheels to leg it out anyway. On top of that, almost no one has run on him since the opening weeks of the season, with his quick release and cannon of an arm. Great Expectations While he is a player with huge four- or five-tool potential, he has had a few growing pains in reaching the majors. Coming into the season, we were a little less hot on him due to the meteoric rises of both Jackson Chourio and the hitting machine that was Sal Frelick, and also a slight slump in the middle of last year at Biloxi when he was struggling with a wrist injury. Prior to that, he had won the Brewers’ Prospect of the Year award in 2021, hitting 27 home runs with a .959 OPS across both levels of A ball. When he made the jump to the Triple-A Nashville Sounds, he cut his strikeout rate considerably, from 30% at Double A to just 19.5%--a huge improvement considering there were concerns over whether he could make consistent contact with the size and speed of his swing. He also rediscovered his power stroke, slugging .520 over 174 plate appearances with six home runs, a triple and 15 doubles, to go along with a 12% walk rate. He was a bit under the radar coming into spring training, with most expecting him to be on the outside looking into the early outfield mix, but his quality defense in the outfield as well as his improving eye at the plate, and most importantly his right-handed bat, made the Brewers call him up just a single day into the season, after Luis Urias’s hamstring went out. In terms of his ceiling, it’s clear to see the amount of power he can generate, the speed on the base paths, the fielding and throwing arm in the outfield. There are questions over his hit tool, but this is a player who, when healthy, has hit over .270 in every level of the minor-league system. The sky's the limit for this baby-faced assassin, if he can make adjustments to major-league pitching. The Story So Far Early on in the season, Wiemer was getting by using his speed to beat out ground balls with regularity, with a lot of topped contact on fastballs and a complete inability to square up any sort of breaking pitch. Since then, he has struggled with a change in the pitching approach, and has been looking out of sorts at the plate, with an increasing propensity to swing and miss and a lack of consistency in his plate appearances. He hit much better against the fastball, whiffing on less than 20% of them, which is why he’s been fed a very steady diet of breaking pitches–45.8% to be exact. On these breaking pitches he has a batting average of just .167 and a slugging percentage of .208. However, he has recently started to make much more consistent hard contact, suggesting a change in approach and perhaps an adjustment to the extra break that major-league pitchers will have on their pitches. His defense, meanwhile, has been magnificent, grading out as slightly above-average in center field and an absolute weapon in right, with four defensive runs saved in total, and being in the 91st percentile for outs above average, 87th percentile for arm strength (which is furthered by how he throws without any momentum), and 78th percentile for outfield jump. The jump is particularly impressive given that his routes haven’t been great, but his reactions have been the best in the league. It's been consistently excellent and has almost assured his place in the lineup for a few months, given the injury crisis around him with Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick. His derring-do on the base paths has been incredibly fun to watch as well, with an average sprint speed of 29.1ft/sec, good enough for 21st in the league, going home to first in 4.23 seconds. He’s had five steals so far, being caught once while attempting a fairly reckless third-base steal, and also been caught trying to steal third on infield grounders that just weren’t an option. Part of the excitement is that you don’t quite know what he’ll do next, and his decisions on the base paths will improve over time, as well as his steal total if he can get on base just a little bit more often. Stand Out Stats - Wiemer has just a .390 OPS on the road compared to a 1.061 OPS at American Family Field - With runners in scoring position, he almost always puts the ball in play, with just one strikeout in 28 plate appearances. - With such a violent swing, he’s still only hovering around the league average in strikeout percentage, and 60th percentile in walk rates. - He doesn’t miss belt-high pitches, with just a 5.4% whiff rate. - Against left handers, who throw fewer sliders to him and mostly use fastball/changeup combinations, he has a 1.061 OPS The Deeper Look Wiemer’s struggles are shown in two simple graphics from Baseball Savant. As you can see below, his whiff rates in the bottom part of the zone are astronomical, a byproduct of his struggles with breaking pitches. Even when he does make contact, it’s mostly weak, topped balls, leading to the excessive ground ball rates you see below. When pitchers have kept their breaking balls down, he’s almost guaranteeing them an easy out. When they get ahead in the count, they’ve fed him a steady onslaught of pitches down and away, resulting in 15 of his 25 strikeouts. For further emphasis, he hasn’t gotten a hit yet against a sweeping slider. Quite simply, Wiemer hasn’t adjusted to the amount of break he’s seeing on these pitches, but it’s almost inevitable that he will catch up. His expected batting average against these is starting to creep up, from .063 just three weeks ago to now breaking the Mendoza line. He also needs to do a better job when he gets ahead in the count, and working the count to his advantage. Only eight of his plate appearances have ended with him ahead in the count. Christian Yelich has had three-ball counts in 38 plate appearances so far this season, Joey Wiemer has managed this in just 21. He could do a better job, perhaps, with an approach closer to what we’ve seen from Tellez so far, waiting on a specific pitch to swing at and consciously laying off breaking balls early in the count and sitting on higher fastballs or hanging breakers until he has to swing. Final Notes While his swing doesn’t look technically fit for major league pitching, he has remarkably fast hands, and it’s fair to say that so far, he hasn’t struggled to catch up to the fastballs. He does have small adjustments to make in his approach, and his eye at the plate will only improve the more major-league pitchers he sees, something we are already starting to see. Most of his slugging so far has come against offspeed pitches, to the tune of a .500 slugging (even before his home run against Tony Gonsolin’s splitter). Wiemer's talent is there for all to see, and while he could be an impact player similar to Kyle Tucker, his defense provides a very high floor for him to bring value to the Brewers as he learns on the job. It’s important to note how normal this is, Jarred Kelenic took 500 plate appearances before his ability started to show this season. If Wiemer can get it to click by the time the stretch comes around later this season, the Brewers will have one hell of a player on their hands.
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If anyone needs perspective, the tigers swept the Mets with Verlander and Scherzer starts, and then the rockies won a series against the mets to follow it.
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Davis might be an option, it depends how the Giants see next season as well, and what they'd get back, but I can definitely picture them selling at the deadline, or before with the Diamondbacks form and the way in which LA have picked up, plus the Padres have performed much better recently since Tatis came back, Grisham has been exceptional for them. Whether that's Davis or someone else, that remains to be seen but a trade like the Adames one where both sides get some talent major league ready would be possible for sure. Cron would be a back up for sure, and I really like how Rowdy's been playing, but given he'd be taking Luke Voit's and some of Winker's AB's I'd be okay with that, especially at the price of Cron. Escobar hit like a monster at the tail end of last season, and is slashing .286/.348/.714 over his last seven games, after a shocking start to the season, I wouldn't call him washed up just yet, and the veteran presence is always invaluable when you're losing games and injuries are hitting hard. I think it's understandable why they didn't when you go into a season with so many outfield prospects in the wings, but in hindsight this would have been brilliant. A career 129 OPS+ against lefties would be a big improvement, what would it take to get him from the twins do you think?
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The Milwaukee Brewers have been in a slump for the last two weeks, in particular against any left-handed starter. Even against righties, they have struggled with hitting slumps from Willy Adames, Christian Yelich, Brian Anderson, Brice Turang, and the lack of power from Jesse Winker and Luke Voit. It’s been a rough few weeks against weaker teams. So how can this be corrected? Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports Let’s have a look at a few potential trade targets. There has been a lack of hard-hit balls (save from Rowdy Tellez, who has performed admirably), and the backup crew of Owen Miller and Mike Brosseau have struggled to impact games with their right-handed bats against southpaws. In 2021, just a few weeks deeper into the season than we are now, Milwaukee acquired Willy Adames for pitchers JP Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen. Adames instantly kickstarted a sluggish offense. Who could have a similar impact in 2023? J.D. Davis – Third Base, San Francisco Giants Current Contract - $4.21 million, under team control via arbitration in 2024 Davis has come out firing this season, assuaging concerns about his defense and really providing an impact on offense for the Giants. Given Brian Anderson’s streaky form and his viability in right field, and that Luis Urias may be more suited to playing second base, there is a gap for Davis at the hot corner. Davis is currently in the 99th percentile for outs above average, with slick range and hard, accurate throws leading him to five outs above average (OAA), but his biggest importance to the Brewers would lie in the bat, which is profiling incredibly well. He has a: - 92.2 MPH average exit velocity (87th percentile) - 54% Hard-Hit Rate (94th percentile) - .278/.347/.500 slash line The downside is, he hasn’t hit lefties at all so far this season, with just a .414 OPS across 33 plate appearances, although he has a career .771 OPS against them. He is a reverse platoon split guy, but that OPS is far better than the majority of Brewers hitters are currently putting up. He’s hit six home runs so far this season, and is a player who can make a real difference in both aspects of the game. The question is: What would the Giants want in return? A sort of rebuild is going on at the moment, but they have enough pieces that they could contend if they get hot. They may want someone like Adames given that Brandon Crawford is coming to the end of his career–although obviously, they’d have to include much more than Davis in order to entice the Brewers to deal their starting shortstop. C.J. Cron – First Base, Colorado Rockies Current Contract - $7,25 million, free agent after 2023 Cron was an annual scrapheap slugger before arriving in Colorado, but the fit of his power and overall profile with Coors Field convinced the Rockies to make a medium-term commitment to him. A plus defender at first base (with substantially more range than Rowdy Tellez), he hits from the right side, and has a .303 average against lefties so far this season, and a career .818 OPS against them. He had a slow start to the season, but is starting to pick it up, currently sitting at a 100 OPS+. He has a: - 17.6% barrel rate (92nd percentile) - .506 expected slugging (83rd percentile) On the flip side, he is in the 11th percentile for whiff rate, and the 29th percentile for walks and strikeouts, potentially demonstrating a regression toward a skill set like that of 2022’s Brewers offense, although they haven’t shown that same power stroke so far this season. His cost is hard to estimate given that the Rockies aren’t competitive this season, but their front office isn’t known for its proactiveness or its transactionality. Cron is set to be a free agent at season’s end, but the team hasn’t automatically dealt players in similar situations over the last two years. Eduardo Escobar – Third Base, NY Mets Current Contract - $10 million, free agent after 2023 Eduardo Escobar hasn’t had a strong start to the season, but given Brett Baty’s emergence pushing him down the pecking order, the Mets may be willing to offload his salary and trade him. Escobar goes on hot streaks, like the one he managed at the end of last year, and has been regarded as a good defender at third base, something which cannot be said for Mike Brosseau. His expected slugging has never been what it is now, and is likely to rebound around the .400 mark, while he has been hitting the ball hard with more regularity this season–albeit without the results to show for it. He has found his timing much easier against left-handers, to the tune of a .700 OPS thus far, but is never likely to be a difference-maker on offense. Rather, as a backup and as a switch-hitter, Escobar would provide Craig Counsell with value that far surpasses that of Brosseau so far this season. Escobar is unlikely to have cost the Crew four runs Wednesday night, for instance. He has a - Career .741 OPS, with a career .780 OPS against left-handed pitchers - Had an xwOBA over .500 in a hot streak to finish the 2022 season with the Mets over the final two months - Recorded sweet spot launch angles on average last year in every area of the zone as a right-handed hitter (13 degrees to 26 degrees) Escobar isn’t a flashy potential acquisition, but he has a positive clubhouse presence, some fresh energy, and a consistent AB to offer. He also has the potential to carry an offense when he gets hot, as he did for the Mets last season, and would be a versatile, plus defender that doesn’t cost games with routine misplays. His cost is unlikely to be too high, and the Brewers could trade Brosseau and from their AAA reliever depth. Who do you think could make an instant impression on this offense the way that Adames did in 2021? View full article
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Let’s have a look at a few potential trade targets. There has been a lack of hard-hit balls (save from Rowdy Tellez, who has performed admirably), and the backup crew of Owen Miller and Mike Brosseau have struggled to impact games with their right-handed bats against southpaws. In 2021, just a few weeks deeper into the season than we are now, Milwaukee acquired Willy Adames for pitchers JP Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen. Adames instantly kickstarted a sluggish offense. Who could have a similar impact in 2023? J.D. Davis – Third Base, San Francisco Giants Current Contract - $4.21 million, under team control via arbitration in 2024 Davis has come out firing this season, assuaging concerns about his defense and really providing an impact on offense for the Giants. Given Brian Anderson’s streaky form and his viability in right field, and that Luis Urias may be more suited to playing second base, there is a gap for Davis at the hot corner. Davis is currently in the 99th percentile for outs above average, with slick range and hard, accurate throws leading him to five outs above average (OAA), but his biggest importance to the Brewers would lie in the bat, which is profiling incredibly well. He has a: - 92.2 MPH average exit velocity (87th percentile) - 54% Hard-Hit Rate (94th percentile) - .278/.347/.500 slash line The downside is, he hasn’t hit lefties at all so far this season, with just a .414 OPS across 33 plate appearances, although he has a career .771 OPS against them. He is a reverse platoon split guy, but that OPS is far better than the majority of Brewers hitters are currently putting up. He’s hit six home runs so far this season, and is a player who can make a real difference in both aspects of the game. The question is: What would the Giants want in return? A sort of rebuild is going on at the moment, but they have enough pieces that they could contend if they get hot. They may want someone like Adames given that Brandon Crawford is coming to the end of his career–although obviously, they’d have to include much more than Davis in order to entice the Brewers to deal their starting shortstop. C.J. Cron – First Base, Colorado Rockies Current Contract - $7,25 million, free agent after 2023 Cron was an annual scrapheap slugger before arriving in Colorado, but the fit of his power and overall profile with Coors Field convinced the Rockies to make a medium-term commitment to him. A plus defender at first base (with substantially more range than Rowdy Tellez), he hits from the right side, and has a .303 average against lefties so far this season, and a career .818 OPS against them. He had a slow start to the season, but is starting to pick it up, currently sitting at a 100 OPS+. He has a: - 17.6% barrel rate (92nd percentile) - .506 expected slugging (83rd percentile) On the flip side, he is in the 11th percentile for whiff rate, and the 29th percentile for walks and strikeouts, potentially demonstrating a regression toward a skill set like that of 2022’s Brewers offense, although they haven’t shown that same power stroke so far this season. His cost is hard to estimate given that the Rockies aren’t competitive this season, but their front office isn’t known for its proactiveness or its transactionality. Cron is set to be a free agent at season’s end, but the team hasn’t automatically dealt players in similar situations over the last two years. Eduardo Escobar – Third Base, NY Mets Current Contract - $10 million, free agent after 2023 Eduardo Escobar hasn’t had a strong start to the season, but given Brett Baty’s emergence pushing him down the pecking order, the Mets may be willing to offload his salary and trade him. Escobar goes on hot streaks, like the one he managed at the end of last year, and has been regarded as a good defender at third base, something which cannot be said for Mike Brosseau. His expected slugging has never been what it is now, and is likely to rebound around the .400 mark, while he has been hitting the ball hard with more regularity this season–albeit without the results to show for it. He has found his timing much easier against left-handers, to the tune of a .700 OPS thus far, but is never likely to be a difference-maker on offense. Rather, as a backup and as a switch-hitter, Escobar would provide Craig Counsell with value that far surpasses that of Brosseau so far this season. Escobar is unlikely to have cost the Crew four runs Wednesday night, for instance. He has a - Career .741 OPS, with a career .780 OPS against left-handed pitchers - Had an xwOBA over .500 in a hot streak to finish the 2022 season with the Mets over the final two months - Recorded sweet spot launch angles on average last year in every area of the zone as a right-handed hitter (13 degrees to 26 degrees) Escobar isn’t a flashy potential acquisition, but he has a positive clubhouse presence, some fresh energy, and a consistent AB to offer. He also has the potential to carry an offense when he gets hot, as he did for the Mets last season, and would be a versatile, plus defender that doesn’t cost games with routine misplays. His cost is unlikely to be too high, and the Brewers could trade Brosseau and from their AAA reliever depth. Who do you think could make an instant impression on this offense the way that Adames did in 2021?
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The highest vote by Sunday will be the winner!

