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Shelby Miller isn't a sexy addition like some of the Brewers' National League rivals have acquired on a wild trade deadline day. Still, he fits exactly what the Brewers needed: another arm capable of getting outs at the back end of the bullpen. Miller has shown himself a really tough arm to get on top of this season, with some significant upticks in movement and velocity leading to a 1.98 ERA.
Miller relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, with almost 65% usage this season, to get outs, and it features an intriguing shape. Using Jeremy Machino's model that compares expected movement of each pitch with how much a pitcher actually obtains, we can see it garners a little more rise and a lot more horizontal movement than expected, allowing it to miss a lot of barrels.
What we can tell from the above graph is that Miller gets more horizontal break on both his splitter and his four-seamer than hitters would expect from his three-quarters release point. A lot of this comes from seam orientation on the baseball, and is a key factor in surprising hitters. Quinn Priester's sinker is a great example of this; it doesn't look particularly special on the surface, but when factoring in his arm slot, it drops a ton more than hitters expect, creating a lot of ground balls.
Although Miller got more induced vertical break while he was with Detroit in 2024, he actually got slightly less rise vs expectation last season and a lot less horizontal movement on his fastball. The whole arsenal has kicked into gear, as you can see from Thomas Nestico's stuff model comparison:
Shelby Miller is now getting more movement both horizontally and vertically than we saw in 2024, where his walk problems and some home run misfortune hit hard. This season, he's managed to curtail the walks quite effectively by getting more swing and miss, and less overall damage because he's able to put away hitters. The more pitches you throw in an at-bat, the more likely you are to leave a mistake pitch over the plate.
The improvement in sheer stuff is added to by the new sweeper that has more or less replaced the hard cutter from 2024. It's very much a pitch used to get quick outs and weak contact when that's required, often in favorable counts, but its strong glove side movement adds a wrinkle that helps both the four-seamer and splitter play up even more.
Shelby Miller is better in 2025 than he's ever been. He's getting more chases, fewer swings inside the strike zone, and considerably more swings and misses this season. He's been dominant in 2025 and should allow the Brewers more maneuverability and options when they reach the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings of a tight ball game. All of that for merely absorbing $2 million of Jordan Montgomery's salary and either cash or a player to be named later.
The Brewers found value in a market of excessive overpays and have reinforced an area of their roster that had shown some shakiness around Jared Koenig of late. Miller projects to return sometime next week after a short rehab assignment, and they should expect him to hit the ground running.
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