Jake McKibbin
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Everything posted by Jake McKibbin
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Matt Hardy the first Brewer in action in the 8th inning, with a flyout being followed by a triple to CF, and two groundouts, 1 inning, 1 earned run
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That's a good point re Diabetes, but it's still possible providing the foods are nutrient dense as well, for example avocados are a great example of high calorie, high nutrient foods. High protein is a must, obviously, but he still needs to be in a calorie surplus in order to grow, otherwise the protein gets used as a fuel source rather than for muscle building purposes. He'll need the calories somehow, though I'd suggest that while water weight can help a bit, particularly with the use of creatine, it's unlikely to be the full story, Then again, who knows, maybe he's simply wearing a tighter uniform! Where did the 0-15lbs suggestion come from? I'm unaware of quite how much it will affect him, though he will have to be careful with hypoglycaemia etc.
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So with all the player excitement over the WBC, here's a quick schedule of games involving Brewer players FINAL 21st March 7:00pm ET USA vs Japan (L2-3; Williams 1 IP, 2 K's, 1 BB) SEMI FINALS 19th March 7:00pm ET Cuba vs USA (USA W14-2; No involvement) 20th March 7:00pm ET Mexico vs Japan (L5-6; Urias 2-4, with a 3 run homer; Tellez 1-4) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QUARTER FINALS 15th March 6:00am ET - Australia (Alex Hall) vs Cuba (L3-4; Hall 1-4 with a walk) 16th March 6:00am ET - Italy (Michael Vassalotti, Sal Frelick) vs Japan (L3-9; Frelick 0-5 with 2 strikeouts) 17th March 7:00pm ET - Mexico (Rowdy Tellez, Luis Urias) vs Puerto Rico 18th March 7:00pm ET - USA (Devin Williams) vs Venezuela (W9-7; Williams 1 IP, 1 Hit, 2 Strikeouts) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- POOL STAGES Australia (Alex Hall) - QUALIFIED 8th March 10:00pm ET vs KOREA (W8-7; Hall 0-5 with 2K's) 10th March 10:00pm ET vs CHINA (W12-2; Hall 1-4 with a double and a walk) 12th March 6:00am ET vs JAPAN (L1-7; Hall 1-4 with a home run in the 9th) 12th March 11:00pm ET vs CZECH REPUBLIC (W8-3; Hall 2-5 with 4 RBI's, a triple and another home run) Israel (Robert Stock) 12th March 12:00pm ET vs NICARAGUA (W3-1, Stock 1 IP, 2K's and the save) 13th March 7:00am ET vs PUERTO RICO (L0-10; No involvement) 14th March 7:00am ET vs DOMINICAN REPUBLIC (L0-10; No involvement) 15th March 12:00pm ET vs VENEZUELA (L1-5; Stock 3 IP, 4 Hits, 2 Walks, 3 Earned Runs and 2 Strikeouts) Nicaragua (Carlos Rodriguez) 11th March 12:00pm ET vs PUERTO RICO (L1-9; Rodriguez 4IP, 1ER, 2H, 1BB, 3K's) 12th March 12:00pm ET vs ISRAEL (L1-3; No involvement) 13th March 12:00pm ET vs DOMINICAN REPUBLIC (L1-6; No involvement) 14th March 12:00pm ET vs VENEZUELA L1-4; No involvement) Cuba (Alex Claudio) - QUALIFIED 7th March 12:00pm ET vs NETHERLANDS - (L2-4; No Involvement) 9th March 6:00am ET vs ITALY (L3-6; No involvement) 9th March 11:30pm ET vs PANAMA (W13-4; No involvement) 11th March 11:00pm ET vs CHINESE TAIPEI (W7-1, No involvement) Italy (Sal Frelick, Matt Vassalotti) - QUALIFIED 9th March 6:00am ET vs CUBA (W6-3; Frelick 1-5 with a single, stole 3rd in the 10th inning, 2 runs scored) 10th March 6:00am ET vs CHINESE TAIPEI (L7-11; Frelick 1-4 with a Double, a Walk and 0 K's) 10th March 11:00pm ET vs PANAMA (L0-2; Frelick 2-4 with a double; Vassalotti 4IP, 2 Hits, 2 Walks, 3 K's, 1ER and the Loss) 12th March 7:00am ET vs NETHERLANDS (W7-1; Frelick 3-5 with a double, 2 RBI's and a ton of loud contact) Panama (Javy Guerra, Matt Hardy) 8th March 6:00am ET vs CHINESE TAIPEI (W 12-5; Hardy 1 IP, 1 Hit, 1 ER) 8th March 11:00pm ET vs NETHERLANDS (L1-3; No involvement) 9th March 11:30pm ET vs CUBA (L4-13; Guerra 0.2 IP, 1 BB, 0 K; Hardy 1.1 IP, 3 Hits, 1 BB, 4 ER and the Loss) 10th March 11:00pm ET vs ITALY (W2-0; Guerra 1 IP, 1 Hit, 1 Walk, 1 K and the Save) Canada (Abraham Toro) 12th March 3:00pm ET vs GREAT BRITAIN (W18-8; Toro 2-4 with a walk, a double and 3 RBI's) 13th March 10:00pm ET vs USA (L1-12; Toro 2-3 with 2 singles) 14th March 3:00pm ET vs COLOMBIA (W5-0; Toro 0-5 with 2 K's) 15th March 3:00pm ET vs MEXICO (L3-10; Toro 1-3 with a walk) Mexico (Rowdy Tellez, Luis Urias, Victor Castaneda) 11th March 2:30pm ET vs COLOMBIA (L4-5 Extra Innings; Tellez 0-5; Urias 0-4 with 1 Error) 12th March 10:00pm ET vs USA (W11-5; Tellez 3-5 with a double, 2 RBI's; Urias 1-4 with a walk) 14th March 10:00pm ET vs GREAT BRITAIN (W2-1; Tellez 1-4 with a double; Urias was a late inning defensive replacement at 2B) 15th March 3:00pm ET vs CANADA (W10-3; Tellez 2-3 with 2 walks, a home run, and 3 RBI's; Urias 0-2 with a walk) USA (Devin Williams) 11th March 9:00pm ET vs GREAT BRITAIN (W6-2, No involvement) 12th March 10:00pm ET vs MEXICO (L5-11; Williams 0.1 IP, 0 ER's) 13th March 10:00pm ET vs CANADA (W12-1; No involvement) 15th March 10:00pm ET vs COLOMBIA (W3-2; Williams pitched a clean 8th with 2 strikeouts) Dominican Republic (Willy Adames, Joel Payamps) 11th March 7:00pm ET vs VENEZUELA (L1-5, No involvement) 13th March 12:00pm ET vs NICARAGUA (W6-1; Adames 2-4 with 2 singles) 14th March 7:00pm ET vs ISRAEL (W10-0; No involvement) 15th March 7:00pm ET vs PUERTO RICO (L2-5; No involvement)
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When you first start hitting the weights, your bodies response is heightened, but for someone like Mitchell say, who's actually a fairly large guy, if he put on 5 lbs of muscle there'd be 5 lb's of fat in all likelihood as well, he'd be eating a ton of calories a day for recovery (maybe 5000+) and then potentially cutting a little throughout the season. 5lbs of lean muscle is possible, and actually makes a bigger difference than you'd think appearance wise and strength wise Depends on the program but yeah 10-15 is unlikely to be lean muscle yet it is possible depending on genetics, form, and most importantly, diet
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Jesse Winker is back in the lineup today, be interesting to see how his timing is
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Prospect Comparison Part Three - Garrett Mitchell vs Harrison Bader
Jake McKibbin commented on Jake McKibbin's blog entry in Jake's Blog
I think that's part of it is his floor is fairly high. Regarding swing/take, I haven't got a lot of data, but from the eye in Spring Trining alone (so with a sizeable barn of salt) he does seem to make quite poor decisions when he gets behind in the count, he doesn't work the count all that well which is hopefully something he can develop with a little experience. I also think he's quite an exciting player to watch both defensively and on the basepaths, idk but I really enjoy the art of people stealing bases, and good defense seems to create real momentum swings -
I think this is a great point... for example, I love Willy and would love him to stay here, but I do think Woody is probably the signing that adds most value per $ in the system. I think Turang is developing and showing a lot of growth, particularly if there's any semblance of power this season. If Turang has a 700 OPS this season at 22, maybe even using WAR lets say a 2 WAR season, I think they'll take him over Willy due to the cost differential But pitching is needed, and Woodruff looks prime
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Prospect Comparison Part Three - Garrett Mitchell vs Harrison Bader
Jake McKibbin posted a blog entry in Jake's Blog
Garrett Mitchell, due to his high strikeout profile, high speed and his potential raw power is a very difficult player to compare, as most players would fail in the big leagues with this skill set. However the speed he has allows him to beat the infield with regularity, steal bases and provide such quality defense in centre field that it considerably improves his floor, and his ceiling could be similar to a Keston Hiura that can play defense. Given the thorn in the side Harrison Bader has been for the Brewers, a player who thrives on big moments, electric in the field and on the base paths, it could be a very similar player to what we have in Mitchell. Harrison Bader In Bader's first full season with the Cardinals, and produced a slash line of .264/.334/.422 for an OPS of .756, along with a BABIP of .358 and a strikeout rate of almost 30%. Due to his outstanding defense, he produced 4.1 fWAR in 2018, which may not be as unreasonable an expectation for Mitchell as it sounds. The following season, the height of the juiced ball era, he brought just a .680 OPS and still almost reach two WAR in 400 PA's. Looking back to 2018 and his review on prospects1500.com, he was given the following detail: Speaking of incredibly fast ascents through the minors, Bader made his MLB debut last year just 25 months after appearing in a minor league game for the first time. On the surface, he looks like a tantalizing fantasy commodity — a guy who can hit 20 home runs in a season to go with 15 stolen bases. He has plus speed that should keep him in centerfield and bat speed that helps him get to his pull-side power. But if you watched him during his 92 plate appearances in the majors, you’ll note how pitchers picked up his inability to hit breaking balls away. His over aggressiveness was exploited (5.4 BB%) and his strikeouts climbed (26.1 K%). Unless he learns to handle those away pitches and go the other way, expect low OBP years from the righty that could severely limit his upside and potentially land him in a platoon. As you can see, even in season with a WRC+ in the 80's, and with less than everyday players PA's, he's still provided enough value in terms of WAR to the team through high defense, and when he hits roughly league average, his fWAR loiters around three. He also picks up his fair share of injuries, part of the reason he has limited PA's, and something Garrett Mitchell is likely to also have to contend with in the coming years. He does however have very low exit velocities, just 83.4mph on average last season, and walk rates around 5-7% which is something Mitchell seems to do much better. Garrett Mitchell When drafted, Mitchell was considered a steal for the Brewers due to his raw power, his electric speed and defense, only dropping down because teams were concerned about his type 1 diabetes and the effect that may have on him as a professional. He hasn't spent a whole lot of time in the minor leagues, through injuries and the missed 2020 season, in fact only having 472 PA's among Milwaukee's affiliate teams. He did develop as he moved up, with a low of 21.2% strikeout rate at AAA. He's got plus power when he gets the ball elevated but his swing does seem geared towards a more ground ball oriented profile. As a left hander, this might not be ideal, even with his speed, but he hit predominantly up the middle and to opposite field in his short stint in the majors last year, and can beat out infield throws with some regularity. I don't think anyone expects him to repeat his slash line from 2022, but it's very likely that as he adjusts to major league pitching, or even just professional baseball, his strikeout rate should drop significantly. He likely has less of a hit tool than Bader does, but his speed both to 1st and on the base paths is a lot more obvious. He stole 8 bases in 68 PA's last season, whereas Bader has at most managed 17 in a season (last year with the Yankees). Mitchell recorded the fastest home to first time last year at just 4.01 seconds, and a regular ability to turn easy singles into doubles, and I can see his base running being a prolific weapon, especially with the new rules coming into force regarding pickoffs. For comparative purposes, Esteury Ruiz had a sprint speed of 29.8 ft/sec. Combined with his power when he can elevate the ball, Mitchell has the ability to be a 20 HR/50 SB type player, but in all likelihood, I think in the coming season he's more likely to be 12-14 home runs and 40 stolen bases, still considerable numbers, and something that could make a big big impact on the brewers offense. He's currently projected by ZIPS for a .250/.320/.378 slash line and 98WRC+, which could make him a 3 WAR player given his skills outside the batter's box. in conclusion, Mitchell seems a slightly more unpredictable version of Bader, with more speed, slightly better defense (in part as a result of this, and his plus arm), yet more swing and miss in his profile, and both of them have remarkably similar ground ball percentages. Both are electric and exciting to watch, with highlight reel efforts and energy that can draw in the crowds. I can't wait to see what 2023 has in store for Mitchell. He's picked up quite well in spring training (not that that's usually an indication) but appears to be lofting the ball with more regularity. -
That was super interesting, as @Matthew Trueblood that Yelich double was smoked! First contact, a rope in the air? Hell yeah! Pitching was pretty shoddy most of the game from Cubs perspective, but nice to see the bats line up. Best thing was how adept Urias looked at 2B, that dive and throw to 1st was sublime Also some of the new relief arms looked tasty. I liked the look of Yeager, and Peguero's sinker was quality Frelick hit a ball harder today than Kwan probably managed all season last year... I may expect some big things
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That's really interesting about BBE, he has, save in 2020, been immense against fastball in terms of strikeouts, and whiff rates since joining I found it super intriguing about how his swing/take decisions showed up hugely in comparison to 2018/19, in that for pitches over the heart of the plate, he score +30 in each of those two seasons. In 2021 he rated -17, and -2 in 2022(or thereabouts, this is of the top of my head) This could be due to not picking up those pitches dipping into the zone (ie hanging curves) and also if he's heavily sitting on one pitch, it could be why he strikes out so often against curveballs down in the zone
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Hahaha well there's definitely a connection somewhere.... get me a pint of black at the stadium and I'll be yo-yoing!
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What would a Corbin Burnes Trade Look Like?
Jake McKibbin replied to YodaDaSoda's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I don't know if the Brewers would want Busch, given how reluctant they can be with players that have no positional home, he's effectively a hitting machine that can't be put in the field, and also strikes out a ton so unsure he'll be on their radar. Maybe someone more like a Jose Ramos -
Other interesting members of the "I dont K" club William Contreras (though a few too many grounders so far) Sal Frelick Brice Turang On the other side of the faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar too early stats Adames has struck out 3 times in 6 AB's, and Keston is where he left off with a 40% K Rate
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What would a Corbin Burnes Trade Look Like?
Jake McKibbin replied to YodaDaSoda's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I think you're looking for a win now team for sure... If Mets missed on Ohtani, Blue Jays in their huge league (though again they'll not trade Tiedemann unless they see something off), Dodgers (always), San Diego if they had any prospect capital, but realistically the Dodgers are the team for it. I'd maybe take Miller & Stone both, with another top 10 in their system, probably fair on all parts We wouldn't get Vargas in return, probably lower than that unless he underperforms And if this trade happens next year say, more likely we get one of stone/Miller and a top 10 prospect -
Pre-Spring Training Brewers 2023 Predictions
Jake McKibbin replied to Brewcrew82's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Spring Training MVP: Joey Wiemer Surprise OD inclusion: Keston Hiura (Don't ask me how, it's a gut feeling) Surprise OD omissions: Abraham Toro (working down the minors, think he'll be a good player next season) Breakouts: Wiemer, Frelick, Turang Disappointments: Brian Anderson Bouncebacks: Tellez (By end of the season you'll see why), Winker Season MVP: Willy Adames (if he's put in the middle of the order) Cy Young: Woodruff Reliever of the Year: Peter Strezlecki Rookie of the Year: Garrett Mitchell (by virtue of plate appearances and that speed boiii) Bold Predictions: Cardinals get an injury to Arenado, realise their pitching sucks, and finish 3rd behind the Cubs Brewers record: 95-67 Postseason: I'm a believer baby -
Archived Brewers Audio/Media 2023
Jake McKibbin replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
This is actually awesome, only 15 mins in, but seems like the type of convo you'd get over a beer or two, he comes across so damn likeable -
Joey Wiemer - 7 PA's, 0 Strikeouts He'll never strikeout again
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What would a Corbin Burnes Trade Look Like?
Jake McKibbin replied to YodaDaSoda's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Baltimore are statistically the stingiest team with trading their prospects away, I think there's zero chance they'd offer either Henderson or Rodriguez to the brewers unless they believed there was a major issue with one of them -
Hahaha I have too many personalities for one profile, what can I say :P I really agree here actually, and for the exact same reason. It's one of the reasons I was curious about the Junk and Wilson acquisitions, as we seem to be similar to the Dodgers in that pitchers use their stuff much more efficiently with us, usually adding spin rates and velo (I think Lauer accomplished both of these, used to be a 91-93mph pitcher?) A splitter is one of those that I think can be lethal out of the bullpen, you don't find many hitters with good expected stats against them, I think the question with Wilson is can he sequence it well with his fastball, which hasn't profiled well.. or will it make his fastball become a secondary pitch? EDIT: just realised you were asking if he was Jake Cousins
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Yeah that Frelick one was interesting, particularly because if he'd gone hands first he'd have made it no question, the speed is quality but Wiemer is impressing me. I think he hasn't struck out yet which is a huge thing for him, he seems like he really really tightens up from a wild hack to a more polished approach on two strikes
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Is Mark A positioning the Brewers for a sale?
Jake McKibbin replied to True Blue Brew Crew's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Is it just me or does he genuinely seem like he's pretty proud of owning the Brewers? His wife is at almost every game, and he really seems to want to enjoy the experience. We'll see if they've learned lessons from last season and listen to the fans, but hopefully they do, certainly some of the announced changes a re a step forward, particularly the family bundle -
The date was 15th July 2019, and I was merely an Irish traveller in the great city of Milwaukee to see my cousins. I arrived several days earlier, yet despite a lack of sleep I felt such an energy, sleeping around 3 hours over a 48 hour period (including a random stag/bachelor party) yet the people in the city gave me so much energy, chatting **** with anyone and everyone. I was BOUNCING! I had noticed a lot of people wearing shirts with "22" on them throughout the day, a city seemingly gripped with Yelich fever. Later that day, my cousin Josh came to me and asked about going to a ball game that night with him and his brother in law Max. I hadn't said no all holiday, and wasn't about to start now, despite the sudden onset of a cold coming on. I'd never been to a tailgate before, but it's one of my standout memories of the whole trip. We grabbed a **** ton of hot wings, and headed to the game (extra hot, because yanno, have to prove I'm macho and all). The place was BUZZING! I've never felt or seen anything as relaxed and fun as a tailgate in my life, or since then, people throwing footballs, tossing baseballs, barbecues aflame, beers being necked with the sun on the horizon. One of those moments I'll truly never forget. The Brewers were playing the Braves, and Josh had splurged on some really nice tickets ( a fact somewhat lost on me, as I had no idea what to expect bar the basics of hit ball, run bases, catch ball). We were sitting in the lower level, slightly first base side, beers in hand - though I have to say, Miller Lite, Bud Light and Coors Light, is that the quality beers that a brewery state should offer? Tut-tut! As a maths nerd, so I was pestering everyone about what the numbers meant, what was good, what was bad. All of it confused me, but didn't dent the experience in any way. The tension rose when Yelich was in the batters box, but there was minimal excitement over the first few innings, albeit Atlanta were at least getting on base. In hindsight, Max Fried v Adrian Houser, tough battle! I digress, I was hoping for some electric play to cheer for, but it was fairly tepid to start. Only Hiura and Swanson getting on base; Then came the 4th. The wretched inning where that top of the line-up came through for the Braves, singles by Acuna and Swanson before Freeman laced into a curveball below the zone, mashing it 420 ft to the scoreboard in centre. There was a palpable reduction in the simmering buzz around the stands, a jam packed crowd silenced by one mighty blow. Even worse was the fact the me on base came from a poor throw by Hiura, and a makeable play from Moustakas. The following inning, Yelich singled, and stole second base with Ryan Braun up next. The stadium came to life, edging forward on their seats (I still had no clue other than the reactions of my relatives what on earth was going on), Braun struck out, but Grandal walked and with Moustakas up next, this was the opportunity to fire back.. Yet Big Mike and Aguilar had some softly hit fly balls and that was the end of that. The came the inning of the game, Keston Hiura with a ground rule double before stealing third, but getting caught trying to sneak home off an Orlando Arcia grounder, leaving just Arcia on 1st, a real momentum shifter. I can't express how easily one could feel the momentum via the crowd that evening! Cain walked, before Yelich absolutely bluthered (Northern Irish slang: Smacked to the heavens) a ball, the crack was so loud! Alas, straight to Austin Riley in left field. The Brewers were beginning to put pressure on but just couldn't create that telling hit. House had settled since that Freeman bomb, giving up a walk but through the top of the 6th with ease, then the Braves swapped out Fried for a relief pitcher, and Braun punished them with a huge dinger! This got me on my seat, and when Moustakas reached, and Hiura up to bat (he'd looked awesome all game). Earlier in the inning, Grandal was tossed for contesting a close call in a 3-2 count, then Hiura monstered a pitch. By god, the sound! The ball flew high in the air, Acuna going back... Acuna missed it, ball landed just inside the fence, RBI Triple! The Brewers may have been tied if the close call for Grandal was slightly different.. Orlando Arcia killed the inning with a routine fly, and it's onto the seventh. The Braves hit back, three straight singles off of Houser by Albies, McCann and Riley, getting him out of the game, and establishing a little breathing room. Braun didn't cover himself in glory, a poor read and no dive on a makeable soft liner to left field, then a poor route and dropped ball to McCann creating the pressure.. then a slow, ambling jog to the soft fly into left field, and he was really exposed for his defense "efforts". The reliever did his job, but they'd taken the wind out of the Brewers sails, and after an uneventful eighth we came to the ninth, where the Brewers escaped a bases loaded jam in the top of the inning. Keston Hiura first up, a man who'd done damage all night.... strikes out swinging! Ben Gamel and Eric Thames finished the job, and the Braves walked away 4-2 winners. Interestingly it was the next day that piqued my curiosity, as despite my cold, I got up to gym at 6AM, passed out on the sofa not long after and caught the afternoon game when I woke up, Yelich with a grand slam in a 13-1 win. I was hooked, so much variety in the scorelines, and I finally saw why I knew to get excited when Yelich came to bat. Hot Damn! Edit: When I got home, when I would go to bed, I would occasionally stay up way later than I should with the MLB app open, waiting for pitch tracking data to register and see what happened on the last pitch, praying for that slight delay in an update which invariably meant there was a hit, or something eventful happening, bemoaning pitchers missing the zone (Had no idea that this could be intentional at times). I still stay up way later than I should, or get up earlier than I should in the morning having waited to the point of a game starting to play o MLB.com, pressing pause, and then in the morning being able to watch the whole thing, as I find highlights just don't let you get the same feel for the game, it just isn't the same. I actually used to watch highlights then go to the reddit forums and see what everyone was chatting about in there!
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Luis Urias has been a polarising figure for many Brewers fans, probably due to a differentiation in what people expect from the hot corner (a fact made worse with Nolan Arenado in the same division) and what is regularly produced by the position It should be noted that fangraphs estimates his value over the last two seasons to be in the $17-18 million range. Let's take a deeper look into what Urias has been developing, and where he can look to improve. Defense In Luis Urias first full season with the Brewers, he struggled massively with throwing the ball, particularly when he had time to overthink the process. The botching of a lot of the simpler plays led to a perception that he was a poor defender, but that isn't entirely the case. It's true that, per baseball savant, he was worth -11 outs above average in 2021, but over half of this was comprised of excessive playing time at shortstop. In 2021. he was worth -4 OAA at shortstop, and +4 OAA in a similar number of plays at second base. He is a largely league average defender in 2022 at third base (-1 OAA). His arm strength is in and around the 30th percentile, another reason why he shouldn't be played too often on the left hand side of the infield, but he has a high quality glove and great reaction times. He cut his errors down from 24 in 2021 to 14 in 2022, and he produces markedly less mistakes when playing on the right hand side of the infield, with just one mistake in 46 games. In other words, he's a high quality defender at second base, but a merely passable one at third, and should be kept well away from shortstop. This seems to be something the Brewers have worked to create, with the likes of Toro & Miller as suitable defenders at third base, and Turang's impending arrival. Hitting Urias took a big step forward offensively from his production with San Diego. His barrel rate went from a previous high of 4.4% in 2019, to 9.3% in 2021, and developing his hard hit rate too. He has maintained this throughout 2022, albeit a slight drop off, but his biggest weakness currently is not quite so obvious. He's very good at covering the majority of the zone well, even controlling his whiff rates outside the zone. the issue with this is how often he generates weak contact and an easy out from this position, and anything on the inner third of the plate; As you can see, Urias really struggles to generate quality exit velocities from these positions, and has allowed him to be targeted repeatedly, and successfully, high and inside by the four seam fastball. The danger for pitchers comes if they leak that fastball further away from him, at which point he's very good at creating hard contact and elevating the ball; he managed to average 14.2 degrees of elevation in 2021 and further increased that to an 18 degree launch angle in 2022. If the ball is belt high, he hits fly balls almost 50% of the time, as well as strong elevation rates in the upper half of the strike zone too when he isn't cramped for room. An interesting point of development for Urias is how much stronger he's become in doing damage when he gets ahead in the count. He receives off-speed in these counts around ten percent of the time, so it's more negligible, but the quality of contact on both breaking pitches and fastballs has skyrocketed. It's breaking balls in particular that draw the eye here, with a significant jump in both exit velocity and expected slugging. However he faced far fewer favourable counts in 2022, due largely to a change in approach. Despite facing 62% of first pitch strikes, he swung on the first pitch only 21% of the time, down from 30% in 2021. This could be for a number of reasons, but during the course of the season we know that he was struggling with his wrist, and a change in approach to grind out the AB's instead of looking to do damage may have caused him to create lower exit velocities than expected. in addition, he was regarded as a plus player when it comes to his swing/take decisions, in 2021 having a +17 run differential. Yet in 2022, this significantly as a result of a -15 score for pitches taken over the heart of the plate. A lot of people in the Brewers camp were raving about his physical development last off season and the additional power he was impacting the ball with, yet we didn't really see that throughout 2022. I think a tweak in his approach could allow us to see more damage from his bat in 2023. Regarding the wrist injury mentioned above, a loot at his splits throughout the year highlight this quite well. He maintained very strong walk rates for the most part when he was struggling at the plate, topping out at 13% in August. Yet when he developed through the issue you could see a marked improvement, hitting .328/.415/.507 in September/October, stepping up when Brewers needed him most and giving a glimpse of what he could do if he can remain healthy throughout 2023. Conclusion If playing predominantly at second base in the coming season, Urias could quite possibly be a 4-5 WAR player should he tap into his offensive capabilities. We need to see if he can replicate his performance at the end of last year, as well as tightening up on those inside pitches, doing a better job of pulling his hands in and muscling the ball into the outfield with more authority on these pitches. If he can manage these, he can show himself off as one of the premier second basemen in the league.

