Jake McKibbin

Are there any that could potentially be traded during spring training? I can't imagine the Brewers will go in this under stocked unless they're super confident upon seeing their guys

The interesting thing is this is always easier to say in hindsight For example, if he has a first season like a top tier talent, he's unlikely to accept a real low offer, though could maybe get 1/2 extra seasons due to his likely young starting age in the big leagues. However on this basis, we also could've offered Hiura a long contract based on his first year, and that wouldn't have turned out so well. I think the Brewers could do it when he turns up in the bigs immediately, but even then there's some risk, as there has to be some uncertainty over future earnings to get a deal like this that's team friendly

I would also note that Urias did seem last season to take a more passive approach at the plate during the middle of the season, but his hitting tool pre and post thumb injury(I think it was his thumb?) looked much better Another reason is he quite possibly lays off a lot of pitches on the inner half of the plate, where he creates very very low avg exit velocities

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/02/big-hype-prospects-walker-vargas-hall-frelick-wiemer.html Was it this on MLB trade rumours? Interesting with 3 brewers prospects mentioned

Hi Larry, good to hear from you! It does seem to large a sample size to be an anomaly, and in this instance, I'm assuming we all know that even in our day to day jobs, we find some tasks and situations more stimulating than others. It just so happens Adames seems to have a spike in his focus and attention when big game moments come around

The biggest think for Winker is if he plays 140+ games. If he does that, he'll be in line for a multi year deal elsewhere, looking at the contract of people like Abreu. It's also entirely possible that neck surgery frees him up a little in the field too, whereas he has had it nagging him for quite a while. So yeah if he shows durability a 1 year offer is unlikely to be accepted IMO

He had a god awful BABIP last year too, which played a big part in it. He doesn't strike out much at all, I think he's prime candidate for a big big season

It really wasn't the offense. Theoretically if Hader held one more game without a blow up, we'd have beaten the Phillies and held the tiebreaker, likely being in the playoffs. That and the number of starts Alexander gave us... that Yankees game where we scored 8 runs and didn't win was criminal

Is there any particular situation in which he should change his approach that you've noticed?

Even with just how good Devin Williams was last season, and Hader up to the end of June with his 0 earned runs, Milwaukee were 17th in Bullpen ERA last season, with 3.94. I'd expect even the mashpot this season could put up a number similar to that

For the second instalment in this series, let's delve a little into Willy Adames underlying numbers, to try and see where he's been developing, and where there is growth still to come: 2021 When he first joined the Brewers in 2021, Adames posted a .285/.366/.521 for an .887 OPS, crushing fastballs all over American Family Field, but we should keep in mind that he had far lower expected stats with an xBA of .236 and an xSLG of .435, which would lead to an expected OPS of something more in the .750 range. His biggest issue was that, despite being 72nd percentile for hard hit balls, and a median chase rate at the MLB level, he was in the ninth percentile for whiffing, swinging and missing on 32.6% of pitches. The slider caused him the most trouble (he was heavily targeted with the fastball-slider combination) with which he missed a whopping 41.3% of the pitches, including a lot of pitches down and away (21% to be specific). He also seemed to struggle with pitches that cramped him for room, struggling to barrel the ball when pulling the hands in, creating a lot of low exit velocities, with only four barrelled balls all year in the inner part of the plate. Pitches up and in are statistically his weakest going by average exit velocity, with a mere 78.9mph, mostly as soft popups, but even pitches down and in resulted in a heavy ground ball rate. On the plus side, he was exceptional at getting the ball in the air through the middle and upper parts of the strike zone, with average launch angles between 20-25 degrees in each of these 6 zones. In all three zones over the middle of the plate, middle-away, and up-and-away, he averages a hard hit ball with exit velocities of 95+ mph. He hit 18 of his 25 homers in the middle-middle, and middle away zones alone, as well as having high xSLG and BACON numbers for the up-and-middle/up-and-away zones. To summarise, Adames had areas of the zone where if he got his pitch, he would be able to impose himself on the pitcher, areas where he could elevate the ball nicely into the outfield. Yet in other zones he just couldn't find the barrel of the ball, combined with a propensity to whiff at any pitch that wasn't at his belt buckle. 2022 How did Adames try and address this in 2022? Given he was in the 9th percentile of whiff rate in 2021, he did manage to boost it to the 24th percentile in 2022. He was targeted down and away even more often, 24% of the time in fact, however he did reduced his whiff rate in this zone from 66% to 51%, a sizeable difference, and a large reason why his run differential vs the slider increased by 19 points. His BA against the slider did improve slightly, in part because when he connected on this pitch, he hit it hard, with a slugging percentage of .525. His biggest issue was that he started whiffing more around the upper part of the zone, much more consistently. This would go some way to showing why his run value on the fastball came down by 10 points, as well as his xBA and his xSLG each by .030 points. In each major league season, Adames has increased his barrel rate, to the point that last year, at 13%, he was in the 90th percentile of MLB, and his average launch angle of 18.9 degrees follows the same trend, demonstrating a real talent for getting the ball in the air consistently with hard contact. He had the 15th best barrel rate in MLB last year! He managed this more through an ability to loft the ball more, making use of his harder contact to find the outfield on a more consistent basis. 2023 Adames has some obvious weaknesses it seems, from his vulnerability at the top of the zone in 2022, to his enduring struggles with picking and laying off the slider. So how can he try and make that next step? Well for starters, Adames doesn't do a great job of laying off the slider down and away, and he could be more selective with this pitch. He barrels up balls middle-away, and down over the heart of the plate quite regularly, so if he can be more selective in picking the slider, and even trying to avoid the low and away section inside the strike zone in the early counts, we could see him reach deeper counts, get ahead in counts a little more often, and apply pressure to the breaking pitches. The other way is a psychological one. Adames is a player who thrives on energy, enthusiasm, and the big moment. His focus and performance seem to step up dramatically when there's a big moment, or a chance to drive in runs. When you've got 600+ plate appearances in a year, it's difficult to be fully in the moment for each one of them. Have a look at these stats from 2021 and 2022: There is too much data in the above to deny that Adames feels better in the bigger moments of the game, in both his eye at the plate, to his power numbers, and the Brewers need to find a way to tap into this more often. Corbin Burnes often talks about having his process when he walks up to the mound of making each pitch a solitary event, developing a set process and reviewing his efforts based on his execution. Adames could work with a psychologist to find a method of sharpening his focus in each occasion at which he reaches the batter's box, as well as potentially moving him slightly down the order in the hope he'll have more men on base in front of him when he comes up to hit. The Brewers as a more "three true outcome" oriented team last season probably didn't help this, but with a hope that Winker with his high OBP, Yelich with his high OBP, and potentially Frelick too, could set the tone at the top of the order and give Adames those RBI opportunities, we may see a spike in Adames plate discipline and performance this coming season. Let me know what you guys think!

Congrats on the shout-out in the tailgate podcast by the way! Shows the quality of analysis you're giving!

I think given the dearth of hitting the Brewers have had recently, and given last seasons response to trading Hader, if Winker produces those numbers and the Brewers are chasing playoffs, there's no chance he gets traded bar a remarkable offer and we have 3 OF prospects with OPS of .800 and above It's simply too valuable when you have a pitching staff like the Brewers do to trade a bat like that, especially if he's injury free at the time. So based on the parameters in the initial question, I just can't see any "realistic" situation in which this happens

I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm sure its something to do with the forum thread being the main thread 95% of users make use of to navigate the sites, and nothing is really posted in two forums (unless overlooked by mistake?) So unless you categorize this discussion as news and Brock agreed, it's unlikely to be on the news part of the site?

I have to say I think Brock has raised some good responses to your points (and I'm sure you can see this is an appropriate place for this topic, as well as a notification in main forum about where the thread was moved to). I can see an issue with topics that are just repeats of threads that already exist, and said he'd sort these out A lot of the articles (in particular recently with some new writers) seem to have been on things people aren't talking as much about, or are going more in depth than the average piece and then prompting discussion around these topics. Simply because they say "article" shouldn't prevent people from discussing them and I feel the forum is a fair place for this. Ultimately, as long as threads aren't just duplicated topics with the word "article" in front I'm all for it (though as a newer member I maybe haven't got the same depth of experience with the forums intricacies, particularly during the season)

Also, how does it predict the Giants to have so many wins? I've got to say I find that quite surprising

If he has that kind of impact, not a chance

PECOTA does usually seem to rate the Brewers a little higher doesn't it? Be interesting to see between them which often turns out more accurately

I'd agree... closing situation is a difference, but hitting looks far better lined up, and the brewers pitchers are probably somewhere between the 21 & 22 numbers I could very easily make the argument the cards overperformed last year I do find there's a natural bias to the prior years division champs too in how people talk about them too

Or the beginning of something great.... just need to find some heat entering the playoffs, something that has, as of yet, eluded them

Even though they had a losing season doesn't mean they weren't trying to win. They definitely were

The dodgers definitely have questions in their rotation and some holes in their lineup Cardinals are hoping to god that one of their pitchers can perform like an ace Padres & Phillies have spent huge chunks of money I'd still say Brewers have a premier rotation in baseball, and the lack of depth killed them last year when injuries hit Hopefully improved offense (at least Winker will be better than Cutch by all estimations) So they've improved at least, and once you get in the playoffs, with this rotation all you need is a sharp burst of form and it's fair game

How has he tired out his shoulder even before reporting to camp? Has he had a vigorous workout program in the off season?

A bit of a nerd when it comes to the gym, sports etc and kinetic movements so would have pretty strong knowledge of this and how different muscles work together. I've done some studying around the topic but not a true professional by any means In short, the muscles contracting (and therefore exerting force in a movement of the upper body) If you're pulling something towards you (hands getting closer to your body) then you're using your back muscles (traps, lats, rhomboids), rear deltoids and biceps predominantly If you're pushing something away from you (hands getting further from your body) then you'll be using your chest, front deltoids, side deltoids and triceps Your core and legs provide balance and momentum (and occasionally kinetic coil) for most upper body movements to try and ensure all the energy input to the motion is being transferred to output (in this case, ball velocity).

Based on many recent comments about Steven Kwan being similar to Sal Frelick and him being a five WAR player last year, I decided to look into how comparable the two are as prospects. Steven Kwan's 2022 Season The most obvious reason for this comparison is that Frelick and Kwan are exceptionally good at avoiding the strikeout. Kwan was in the 100th percentile for both whiff rate and strikeout rate in the majors last year and the 96th percentile for chase rate. His whiff rate on two strikes is 6% against fastballs, 4.9% against off-speed pitches, and a "whopping" 13% against breaking balls, an expert level of contact. That being said, he is also in the first percentile for barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and the third percentile for average exit velocity, with his spray chart showing a lot of balls dropping in the shallow outfield. His power output mostly came from pulling pitches on the inner part of the plate, with four of his six home runs from this region of the strike zone. Despite this, he produced 25 doubles and seven triples last season, using awkwardly placed balls in play and his 60-grade speed to make the most of his hits and stealing 19 bases last season. Kwan was also a recipient of a Gold Glove in his rookie season, with 96th percentile outs above average in left field, mostly from his quality jump rather than explosive speed. All in all, this is exactly the type of player the Brewers missed last year. The Brewers hit just .207 as a team in the first inning in 2022, so to have a player like Kwan leading off with a tough AB, getting on base, and setting the tone for the game could make a noticeable difference to the team. Frelick vs. Kwan in the minor leagues Kwan spent much more time than Frelick on his way through the Guardians system, and it's important to note the progression made by Frelick even as he moved up each level in 2022. He hit .291/.391/.456 in High A Wisconsin over 21 games with a 15.2% strikeout rate at the start of the year, only to finish in AAA hitting .365/.435/.508 with a 7.4% strikeout rate over 46 games. Due to it being such a small sample size, his limited time in college baseball due to ill-timed injuries and bad luck, and allowing for him to develop as a hitter in his first full professional season, I'm going to focus more on his statistical output at the end of the season. Frelick was also a player who won defensive player of the year honors at Boston College for his work in CF (in his first season playing the outfield); he is a 60-grade runner, capable of flashing his speed both in the field and on the base paths, with nine stolen bases in 46 games at AAA and potentially more to come if the Brewers can develop his instincts when on base a little more (again similar to Kwan). You could expect someone with his speed, on the base paths at the clip he was in 2022, to steal more than 24 bases in the minors across all levels and be caught stealing eight times (a 75% success rate). Scouts also say he has a bit of work to do in terms of his defensive reads and routes if he is to stay in center field, hopefully working on these areas throughout the offseason and the beginning of this season. Frelick accesses much more of his power on the pull side but has demonstrated an ability in the minors to hit one out to the opposite field. He did have a higher BABIP than at previous levels. Still, his hit tool, ability to cover the shadow area around the strike zone, and the scouting reviews around the regularity with which he barrelled the ball should stand him in good stead. In other words, Frelick didn't just make contact; he made quality contact regularly. In college, he was recorded as having an exit velocity of 108mph, surpassing anything Kwan produced in the majors last year. In his last season between AA and AAA, Steven Kwan hit .328/.407/.527 with a 9.1% strikeout rate but an ISO of .200, roughly .50 points higher than Frelick produced. However, as mentioned in the first section, higher quality pitching can easily subjugate his power. His previous seasons loitered in the ISO range of .83 - .102, and he embraced pulling the ball more and improved his launch angle in 2021, hence the sudden development in his game. Kwan stole just six bases in his final season in the minors, caught stealing twice; not a great return for someone also given 60-grade speed, clearly developing on this when he reached the majors. Defensively he was said to have "the speed and ability to stay in CF, or play plus defense in the corner OF spots," which bore fruit by his performance in left field last year. His hitting ability involves more grinding than Frelick, with slightly more pitches per plate appearance, and he swung and missed at just 2.6% of pitches in the minors in 2021. That is, quite frankly, outrageous. Frelick has a better hit tool than Kwan by a small margin. Both have a very strong command of their strike zone with a willingness to grind out ABs (both approached four pitches per plate appearance in the minors), but maybe have a little work to do in terms of maximizing his approach on the base paths and his value in defense, both of which can likely be developed simply through more playing time and experience. It could be more optimistic to predict further progress from Frelick, given how little professional baseball he has played and the extent of the improvements he made in his first full season. Kwan would have the edge on Frelick regarding his plate coverage, though as one of the toughest outs in baseball, that's not derogatory in any way for the Brewers prospect. Also, when Kwan reached the majors, he reverted to an ISO of .100, seeming to lose the power differential he found in his final season of the minors. You can't project Frelick to be as tough to strike out as Kwan, but he will likely maintain his low strikeout rate and stronger power output. Keith Law was asked about the comparison, to which he responded, "No, Frelick's faster, a better defender, and I think he's going to make harder contact too." What do the Brewer fanatics think?