Jake McKibbin

So while I understand this post, and I'm not arguing about production as I feel Frelick may be a better offensive producer However taking away HR's is in no way a viable way to judge them, that's like saying "take away the singles and compare them". Taylor shouldn't be penalised for being a better slugger Frelick also did it not against major league pitching but against AAA pitchers I do think he has the hit tool to perform maybe similarly to Luis Arraez, but this way of comparing the two just doesn't feel all that accurate to me

This time around, let's take a quick dive into William Contreras, his historical hitting, and how he has the potential to be a premier hitter for the Brewers. Development The blockbuster trade to acquire Contreras has undoubtedly been the Brewers' biggest move this off-season due to his All-Star production at the plate of .278/.354/.506 and the Brewers' recent history of markedly developing their catchers' defensive capabilities, particularly their receiving skills. However, Contreras hasn't always looked like the power bat he is today, taking six years to get past High A ball, and his power not really showing up between 2015-2020, with ISO numbers below .100 in three of those seven seasons. However, looking at his history in the minors, he had a relatively consistent strikeout percentage, capping out at 21.3% in 2019 but regularly in the 17-21% range. After getting his first taste of the majors the following year, his power numbers spiked, recording ISO's of .228 in 2021 AAA, .184 in 2021 MLB, and .228 in 2022 MLB, a huge increase that also coincided with an increased strikeout rate and walk rate, while also producing a much better batting average. The Braves reportedly worked very hard on simplifying his swing to allow his raw power ability to manifest, and in 2021 the organization was split on which of Langeliers and Contreras was the better prospect. Strengths Contreras ranked in the bottom 6% of the league last year in Whiff Rate yet was in the 90th percentile for batting average and expected slugging, suggesting that although he may swing and miss a lot when he gets his pitch, he makes the most of it. His heat map indicates he can swing a little too much at balls just above the strike zone but doesn't chase a ton elsewhere, with a chase rate in the 54th percentile last year, and his favorite pitch by far is the sinker, which he took for a plus eight-run differential last year in 299 AB's. He hits most pitches well but struggles a little more with the slider, according to the run differentials. He faced more sliders than any other pitch last year (413) with a .191 Average and .266 Slugging, whereas for all other meaningful pitches he faced, he had a BA/Slugging of: Sinker - .358/.672 4 Seamer - .301/.614 Curveball - .306/.444 Changeup - .292/.583 Cutter - .292/.687 While he appears like a slugger who can't hit for average due to his underlying whiff rate, pitches up in the zone being swung on and missed, and his strikeout rate, he can barrel the ball regularly to all fields (his spray chart is spread very evenly). This should give him a high floor regarding his on-base percentage, particularly given he has consistently developed as a hitter over the last three seasons, improving his power output, batting average, and maintaining steady walk rates. He also, despite a tendency to swing and miss, has relatively consistent xOBP for all parts of the zone, showing a propensity for quality contact when he does connect. Reviewing the comparisons in his StatCast numbers from 2021 vs. 2022 (and he did outperform these slightly in 2022), some notable differences include: - His Hard Hit rate, Barrel rate, and Sweet Spot % all jumped 2-3% - His xSLG jumped from .419 in 2021 to .479 in 2022 - His WOBA jumped by 0.67 points - He dropped his SO and Whiff % by ~ 2% - He destroys middle middle pitches. His xSLG was 1.048 in this area of the zone last year, xBA was .470 Weaknesses In terms of his weaknesses, Contreras had one particularly troublesome foe: the slider. As you can see above, he swings a lot at pitches down and away (although he does have an ability to make quality contact when he connects even diving out over the plate). The Strikeout and whiff percentage are something he will have to tighten up on in order to become less streaky at the plate. He expected stats of .169/.279 for a minus four run differential against the slider, the only negative score posted against any pitch last season, and a strikeout rate of almost 40%. Defense With league average pop time (mostly from his strong arm behind the plate, and some technical work to do on his transition and release), his bigger issue defensively is framing. He registered minus three framing runs in both 2021 & 2022, but it's something the Brewers have really specialised in developing, the most recent case being Omar Narvaez who was the worst in the league before he came to Milwaukee. To emphasize the difference this provides, he had a called strike rate on the edge of the zone of 45.1%, whereas league leader Jose Trevino had a 53.8% rate. Where Contreras particularly struggles is below the zone, as you can see below in a table created by Jason Wang of Brewer Fanatics (left hand side is Contreras, right is Trevino) Hope you guys enjoyed!

I think thats maybe a bit harsh on Tyrone, given he did have 2.1 fWAR and 2.1bWAR last year, and isn't anyone above 2 WAR usually a serviceable everyday player in the majors? He had above average defense in CF, popped 17 homers in 405 plate appearances, and all in all a lot of playoff teams would have loved to have him as a 3rd Outfielder. He's a good player if not a particularly high ceiling above what he's produced so far. He may not be exciting per se, but he's a quality outfielder and Brewers were lucky to have him last year

I think that's fair, I'd actually agree with you more if the DH wasn't in the National league I think in that situation the brewers may listen to offers, maybe more so if there are a couple of early season injuries. I'd say the likelihood isn't great, albeit possible, but also Yelich is okay enough in left field, his jump is awful but his speed can still kinda cover that a bit And I can also see if Frelick and Weimer are mashing at this level, that maybe Garrett Mitchell is optioned to work on a few things as I'm unsure if his success is as sustainable as it would be with those two guys (then again, he would be the best CF on the roster)

I'm kind of in the same boat, @clancyphile I'm a little curious, any reason you think the brewers would benefit more from trading him than keeping him around?

I think they'll want Ashby just throwing and developing this year, especially early on. He's got the raw talent just needs a little fine tuning by the looks of things, particularly in putting hitters away Actually it's probably akin to them getting 29/30 starts in the end due to off days being used efficiently, still slightly less but if you get 2021 Corbin over 2022, that's worth it, plus can always go to 5 man when injuries occur, I actually think it may be the right thing to do, particularly for Freddys health and Ashby's development

One thing is I cant necessarily see them going full 6 man rotation, but I can see them utilising their starters on 5 days rest to optimise quality and reduce injury risk. Woodruff and Peralta missed 22 starts between them last season But they'll use off days and keep Ashby working in shorter bursts out of the pen, or use him as a day 6 starter every now and then, but they'll probably use the off days and just space things out a little bit

It's quite a common trend in international drafts, though I was listening to a podcast recently talking about the Astros identifying talented pitchers several years after their initial 16 year old availability, but at that age there's a consensus that there's not enough time to develop pitchers to being major league ready before the rule 5 draft

I agree on both points here, and as @JohnBriggs12said, it's maybe more the bloke halfway in the outfield that'll be an advantage It is interesting how he keeps his SO rate very much under control, and hopefully can help him with a little luck BABIP wise to make full use of those balls in play

I think they may keep hold of him as long as possible, because if you're looking for one scenario that MIGHT give him AB's, it's the roster time manipulation So, if they are looking to manipulate that extra year of service, Frelick, Turang, Weimer are all staying down til mid may, making him a 5th outfielder/backup (or even 3rd choice) DH. This still doesnt sound likely, but with the injury history of Winker and the desire to give Contreras some breaks, I think they may want him around if Winker plays 80 games, but if he plays 130-140 then Hiura is surplus to requirements That's the only scenario I currently see for him for playing time

I'm not sure his intention was ever to do that He signs big names and uses them to sell shirts, bring attention and improve his investment It's funny because although Attanasio is less wealthy, I get the feeling he's genuinely in love with owning a baseball team

Just finished having a look into some of his ratings and reviews when coming through the minors while working my last blog, and noticed that he was actually getting a lot of praise for what is a strong arm, and what they called "average framing skills". It seems there is quite a disparity between his top of the zone vs bottom of the zone framing, and these stats are brilliant! Thanks for the well put together article

It's even stranger than a prospect with actual history of hit tool issues as they say, who had a lesser season than Jackson Chourio at Low A Ball alone, and is older, I sort of wonder why they're that high on Wood in comparison to others

For sure, Tellez ripped a lot of balls through this area, and should hopefully increase his impact, but I've tried to avoid too much discussion on this as I don't have a ton of data on the impact that marginalising the shift will have (I say marginalising because there will still be someone positioned just the other side of the bag at 2B)

For part two of this series, I'm going to focus a little on Jesse Winker, particularly his injury history. Historically, despite regular injuries throughout his carer, Jesse Winker has a career slash line of .270/.374/.463, with several healthier seasons comfortably above .900 OPS. He has struggled through shoulder dislocation, abdominal strains, intercostal issues, and knee issues. To focus on his two most recent injuries, I've looked in a little more depth to see the return timelines. Starting with the neck, Winker first suffered a neck strain in September 2019 and missed the last month of the season because of it, and the following year he came back with his first .900 OPS season (albeit in shortened 2020). It wouldn't have been as severe as the bulging disc he had surgery on, but perhaps an underlying weakness that caused the issue. In 2019, Brandon Nimmo had a bulging disc, although he healed naturally due to it not being ruptured. Nimmo never seemed to have any issues with the bat after that, regularly finishing the seasons with a .800+ OPS, even though at the time of the injury, he had batted .171/.312/.224 before going on the IL, showing the size of the short-term impact the injury can have on your swing. The neck injury likely doesn't take any real adjustment/recovery time when back in the batter's box. Meniscus clear-out in the knee is a much simpler surgery than most associated with this area of the body. It's a repair of the cartilage between the femur and the joint to prevent friction which causes pain while moving. It is a minimally invasive surgery, very common in high-impact athletes (i.e., those running and moving on harder surfaces, less common on grass surfaces). It can often, several years later, require more serious surgery as the joint is more likely to be unstable; however, in the near future, it is a quick and relatively seamless recovery. Brandon Belt had the same surgery in 2015 and hit 275 with 17 home runs the following year, playing 156 games. It can be much harder to recover from as you get older, but many players, such as Jazz Chisholm and Luke Voit, have returned and recovered well at the plate. The underlying issue with Winker is likely to be less about his injuries from last season and more about what injuries he'll be dealing with this season. He played through them last year for 136 games, and his previous high was 113 for the Reds. Suppose the Brewers get 120 games out of him with relatively minor health issues, and the DH hopefully removes some of the strain on his body in terms of the wear and tear of the knee and other joints or impact dives in the outfield. In that case, they could expect at a baseline an OPS of over .800 and potentially be hopeful of their first .900 OPS bat since 2019. His record at American Family Field is bonkers, with a 1.032 OPS in 32 games; he regularly demolishes sinker ballers (I remember he had a real fondness for Adrian Houser in one specific game). We'll see a little extra focus from him in his contract season to get that bag. And even if he doesn't hit with the power we're used to seeing from, his eye at the plate provides a reasonably high floor from which to project that he'll be comfortably better than Andrew McCutchen as DH, even on his worst day.

Yeah these seem reasonable-ish, i think Adames will get 10 mil more depending on this season, probably closer to Swanson Woody may get 6 years (and actually think he's a steal, he's probably underrated because of Burnes, but he was lights out last year when healthy). I wonder if he'd take even 6 years, or if he might want to return to his homeland for a bigger deal Burnes is getting a 10+ year deal somewhere, so the AAV is entirely fair, the length isnt quite what he'll want

I was listening to the tailgate podcast last night and they mentioned something quite interesting Apparently before you put an offer through for a player, 2 days before the player gets his arb offer the other team owners get to see, and throw up stink over it (unsure how much sway they have), because it becomes the new baseline for other pitchers. You can guarantee if it meant paying 750k to Corbin it wouldn't be that big a deal, but other teams can pressure you and on top of that, the 750 sets a new benchmark for future arb cases, meaning everyones starts to go up a bit I genuinely dont think this is about 750k for Burnes, as the publicity is worth that to be left in peace, but it is more complicated than it seems at first glance

This isnt a fair comparison at all Brian Anderson hit 215 vs Righties, and 247 vs Lefties last year for instance in 73 AB's In 21 he hit 158 vs lefties, but in only 57 AB's in 20 he hit 286 vs Lefties in 56 AB's, and 243 vs Righties Given injuries in 21 & 22, I'd say go with the average data which suggests he's 67% more likely to be better vs lefties (although realistically its all such small samples) and he's still going to be more effective than Keston who literally cant hit them at all He's still a career 238 average vs lefties which isnt too bad compared to what Kestdaddy put up. Might not be ideal but lets not get too down about the thought Turang has also shown pretty even splits, but basically the Brewers have signed a vet option who could be a bounceback candidate injuries permitting

Looking at his Baseball reference its interesting to note a couple of changes from 2018/19 vs 21/22 His SO% jumped from ~20% to 26% He hits a LOT of balls up the centre 2019 in terms of his ISO sticks out like a sore thumb, and I dont think he's that guy. Although I could be wrong as he did maintain it in 2020 (depends how much that counts) pre injuries - 120 ISO vs 207 ISO It seems like even in 2018 part of his offensive value was his ability to get On Base, without a ton of power, and its whether the Brewers can help him reduce SO rate (they've done very well with this recently) And what caused his defensive numbers to drop so sharply? Be interesting to see how he does in a more hitter friendly park, and given almost every hitter seems to suck when they go to Miami, its possible there's a little something to unlock

So I was thinking recently about the number of quality batters required by teams who succeed in the playoffs, and how the Brewers compare and had a brief look into the stats. Taking an .800+ OPS as a good barometer, the Brewers had one hitter last year who passed this mark (Hunter Renfroe, now gone). The Astros had four qualified hitters breaching this mark, including Altuve with .900+ and Alvarez with over 1.000. The Phillies had Bryce Harper (included as he did have 370 PA's), Kyle Schwarber & JT Realmuto. The Dodgers had Trea Turner, Will Smith, Mookie Betts and then Freddie Freeman with a .900+ OPS. Yankees had Aaron Judge with 1.100 OPS (almost counts double) and Anthony Rizzo. In other words, a team seems to need at least two, and probably three comfortably above average hitters to be successful. This brings me to Tellez.... if I told you going into 2022 that his walk rate would jump 3% and ISO would go from .170 to .240 you'd be thinking "come to daddy". However his final slash line didn't quite bear fruit, with a .219/.306/.461, and in particular the average - he hit for .247 Career average in 850 AB's, and had an xBA of .252 last season. I actually lost count of how many times, especially in the first few months, he was roping balls just short of the wall, and by the end of May, he was top three in expected slugging percentage. He's never really going to be a high average guy, with a launch angle of around 15 degrees (also moved up last season by 2 degrees), he is a definite slugger, and although the reduced shift may help a little, it's unlikely to make a huge difference for him. That being said, projections have him expectedly batting around .245-.250 range, and I think he even has the ability to be a .260-.270 hitter based on the quality of contact he produces with average exit velo's in the 91-92 range. His expected slugging was higher than Mookie Betts, Vlad Guerrero Jr, J Rod, and just below Kyle Tucker/Goldschmidt, and just ten points below Pete Alonso. Projecting these stats out, and with his slugging ability, I think it's actually quite possible that an .800 OPS is his baseline for next year, and I think he has the potential for even an 850+ season. I think last season, despite the 35 HR's was actually a down season for him in many ways. A bounce back to the mean could mean the difference between 80 RBIs and 100 RBIs, particularly if his home runs come with men on base. Pete Alonso had 15 solo shots out of 40 HRs (37.5%), whereas Rowdy has 19 out of 35 (54.2%). The other real standout for me is that he's projected to half his number of GiDP outs from 20 to ten next season, whether this is shift-based or not I'm not sure but again could make a small yet noticeable difference to the offense. As such, Tellez is one of the players I can see being a five hole hitter who can really take this offense to the next level if he can regress to his career norms in terms of BA while maintaining the improvements he made in ISO and walk rate last year, and if the brewers can put men on base in front of him a little more often.

According to a recent poll conducted by MLB, the Dodgers have one of the top three farm systems in all of baseball, and honestly that should be a shock given the picks they've been getting (and perhaps a relief that they haven't had the top of the draft picks to work with, or we would maybe see multiple phenoms in this organization). Obviously the draft is a little bit of a crapshoot, and it's tough project for injuries, development, and I think the mental approach of the player combined with work ethic is as important as physical characteristics. Baseball does build a strong sense of character but to go from being the guy to just a guy is not easy, and takes some getting used to. Potential alone doesn't get paid big money, and its why I think teams with less scouting resources maybe don't draft as well, because they don't see the player dealing with adversity, what he does in the dugout, how he conducts himself as a leader. A great example is the life and soul Willy Adames brings to the Brewers, and how there's that real comfort in him in high leverage situations (as there should be, the guy hit .301/.370/.571 with RISP last year). It makes the player not just the guy if they pan out, but he becomes "our guy", and when the inevitable downs of the season hit, you need these guys to step up and drag the team forward. Dodger scouts are actively told to prioritize players who they think can mentally adapt and thrive to big league ball, and trust them to develop their skillset more effectively with that basis One standout for the Dodgers is the amount they invest in player acquisition, scouting, coaches, coordinators, and analysts is huge, and they use their sizable streams of income to do so. They do have a high degree of turnover with staff being poached for higher positions, but they identify talent and ability in these areas to make sure they not only identify the best players available to them, but more importantly create an environment that's perfect for the growth of these players. Coaching is at its purest form when players have development ahead of them, rather than just tweaks, and the Dodgers seem to be far and away the best at taking their talent pool and making the most of it. The Brewers are actually replicating their drafting model currently, of using the most projectable stat (plate discipline , walk rate, strikeout rate) and adding power to it from there. Seager, Bellinger, Gavin Lux and many more were all hit first players who developed power. However, the coaching part is designed to be as major league-like as possible, with most coaches being encouraged to adopt a laidback attitude to transferring advice rather than overloading prospects with information. Walker Buehler commented “How laid back and egoless most of our coaches are, it really helps. I always talk about summer ball coaches or high school coaches or college coaches trying to put their stamp on you. I don’t think many guys do that here, and I think it leads to a really collaborative effort.” This, along with their model of really encouraging the Rookies to be open, outspoken and themselves (which not all clubs do), translates to prospects making the transition from upper minors to the major leagues much smoother than most. They also put a lot more onus on the player with this approach to seek ways that take them from good players to great players, difference makers at the major league level, and this approach, from my personal sporting experiences, enhances the self confidence in your ability to adapt and become better, and also creates a drive to further learn and develop. The act of challenging oneself is far more satisfying than a response to the challenges of others The coaching ticket translates to an appeal at the major league level too. Noah Syndegaard actively took a lower deal than he could have to go to LA and develop as a pitcher, and they have a high track record of pitchers outperforming their recent seasons (Andrew Heaney and Anderson last year are good examples). Part of this is the quality of the defense the Dodgers put out which helps most pitchers do better than their FIP and expected stats suggest, but also their developmental abilities with pitchers. The pure number of quality pitchers and hitters at the upper levels of their farm is crazy, Andrew Heaney - 31. ERA, 3.39 xERA, 3.75 FIP Tyler Anderson - 2.57 ERA, 3.1 xERA, 4.1 xFIP In their farm at the moment they have: 1. Diego Cartaya - International prospect with a big bonus so less under the radar 2. Bobby Miller - Nearly all his pitches ar at least + (70 fB, 60 CH, 60 Sl, 55 Curve) and taken 29th in the 1st round of the draft 3. Miguel Vargas - Picked up for 300,000 internationally, so not a first round, or even second round equivalent pick, won a batting title in 2021, and took no steps back at AAA in 2022 7. Gavin Stone - A 1.48 ERA across the minors, including a 1.16 ERA in AAA, taken in the 5th round. What on earth 6. Ryan Pepiot - 3rd Round (Pick 102) had a 3.47 ERA in 36 innings last year, and although occasionally struggled with walks, he had a 200 BAA It's not just the single talents they're producing, in fact it's the quantity as well as the quality, seeming to maximize the vast majority of the talent in their system, in a way others can only dream of. Regarding the Brewers system, Stearns was famous for not being overly amused with a large scouting department but I think they're invaluable to the organization, and that can be seen from the Brewer networks in the international draft where they have signed very well in recent history - unlike the Dodgers, actually. I also think that improving upon the dietary advice and food provided to prospects as well as lodgings, could go some way to fostering better development, as well as prevention of injuries. Sleep and nutrition are so vital for our body to retain information and develop at all parts of our life, and in the minors this isn't seen as a priority for most teams. Finally, fostering that similarity in approach and coaching from majors to the minors can really help to ease the transition, and maybe reduce the talent that is considered AAAA. A player who is confident and feels at home upon reach the bigs will likely outperform those who don't. These players aren't robots, and in one of the biggest moments of their careers, that comfort factor makes all the difference. The slightest bit of tension can throw off someones swing or throwing arm, and in a game of small margins, it can be the difference.

I dont think Mancini Adds as much as we think, though again I'd love that veteran somewhere in the team But an okay Left Fielder/1B/DH doesnt really seem like a big need, and i dont think his bat is that standout the last few years with a 101 OPS + last season and not really a big bounceback candidate I'd rather spend it on a high end reliever or wait for a mid season trade

I'll go into more detail here (And excuse a lack of knowledge here if thats the case) because I ddint mean to twist anything Kaepernick was kept out by the league owners due to using peaceful protest as way to highlight the grievances against himself and his community I think with Bauer its nothing to do with the league or the media, its his own perverse actions that brought about legal cases. Kaepernick used peaceful protest. I just dont think they are in any way comparable cases, as Bauer has entirely villainised himself. Wasnt trying to twist things, so apologies if it came across that way He'd quite possibly not get signed at all if the owners all agreed as such, but otherwise i think there will be a lot of side eyeing, someone will sign him purely to stop others getting him (Ie if someones going to have him, it may as well be me attitude)

Unfortunately this is off the table now, shame as I think he'd have been a great piece for the number of rookies around this team

Just saw the article on MLB with some standouts... Apparently have Burnes down for a triple crown by projection with a 3.1 ERA, 13 Wins and 249 strikeout (though obviously the first two are going to be conservative estimates for the figures needed to get the triple crown). It does also project DeGrom for 172 innings though.... Aaron Ashby projected as a top 10 starter. This really intrigued me, with 119 Innings at 3.29 ERA. By comparison, Peralta has an estimated 3.99 ERA over 129 innings pitched Sal Frelick to best hitter for Average wth a projected 276/337/414 Line (Though i did think his walk rate would be higher) I think both ZiPS and steamer are really high on Ashby, and I'd hope that alows him to be a big time starter by the end of the year