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naivin

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Everything posted by naivin

  1. Fine, we'll pretend that never happened http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif and take it out. He's still over a run worse on the road. Do you have an excuse for 2006? What about 2008? His numbers this season are heavily influenced by his 7IP 1ER start at Colorado. Any other starts we should ignore to make the numbers support your position?
  2. Definitely time to clean house based on this decision. Maybe then this team will win some games. Seriously as far as this decision goes and why it may be a good decision, there are 2.5 seasons of data that suggest that Dave Bush pitches appreciably better at Miller Park. Whether that can be translated into a succesful platoon situation remains to be seen. You have made up your mind that its a bad idea, I suspect partly based on the person who (you believe) made the decisions...Yes -- This is a very classic Yostian decision and misuse of data. Please don't insult our intelligence by suggesting that Yost making this descision does not impact your feelings on it. Beyond that, I suspect Suppan's status is playing into this a little bit as well, along with the bullpen. One of these guys is being pushed to the pen, and this arrangement seems to be designed largely around making sure they select the right one. Are they 'wasting a roster spot' in the event that Suppan cannot come back and pitch effectively and both of these guys will be needed to start? BTW, due to the impact on teh roster, of course Doug Melvin was involved (and therefore should be fired). It will obviously affect both guys' routines, but in the end I would suspect the impact will ultimatley be on 1 or 2 starts. Those couple starts could prove to be a huge disaster. then again, it could also work out. Until you can provide eveidence to suggest that upsetting the routines is something they can't handle and the results will be bad, I'm not sure you can conclude it is a bad idea based only on that, or how it is a misuse of data. Over the next couple weeks it'll settle itself - either it will work out and they'll stick with it, or one guy will stay in the rotation, and one guy will end up in the pen. Is/Was there another trade in the works that may have played a role in this decision? I don't know, and neither do you, but it certainly seems possible. We are talking about Dave Bush and Seth McClung here, not Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia. I would be interested to know what the expected W-L impact of this is.
  3. So he made one good road start in Atlanta on June 24th and he's a different pitcher now? What about the rest of the season? What about last season when he was also appreciably worse away from Miller Park? Waht about the same story in 2006? How exactly is a he a different pitcher? For the record, I personally would have gone with Bush as teh starter and put McClung in the pen, but to conclude that is some sort of no-brainer based on a good month, ignores an awful lot of data, which ironically enough seems to be what critics are accusing Yost of doing.
  4. Well, everybody knows it is far better for a Manager to say something along the lines of, "Yeah we traded for Durham because even though we have invested all of this time and money in Weeks based on the potential we saw, he really sucks." I think they teach you that on the first day of Manager school. he goes out of his way not to bash his players and is very clear that he isn't going to do it. I defy anyone to explain to me what would be gained by doing so. Does anyone seriously think Rickie doesn't fully understand the situation and is really going to think he's doing fine if he happens to read the paper?
  5. Keep beating that drum at every opportunity. Its an absolutely brilliant way to have your cake and eat it too. If they win, it'll be in spite of him. If the lose, it'll be because of him. I love it. Since nearly all managers are eventually fired, someday you'll be able to say "I knew it all along." In the meantime, you'll have a convenient and obvious scapegoat if by some minute chance the Brewers don't manage to win the World Series.
  6. I would take that as an indication that the Brewers may not be able to catch the Cubs.
  7. Weeks is not Ned's guy...He is the organization's guy, and yes, they are going to give him every opportunity, and when he exhausts all of those, they will give him one or two more.
  8. Agreed. This decision is more along the lines of betting $5 on black. Maybe it'll work out and maybe it won't. Yost seems to be admitting as much and truly seems to be using this as a means to try to find the best long term solution for the remainder of the season.
  9. From TH: The Giants are looking for a catching prospect and would love to have Class AA Huntsville catcher Angel Salome, who is having a huge year. The Brewers have had trouble developing catchers, however, and I can't see them throwing Salome into a deal for just Durham and Taschner. They'd have to get more than that to part with Salome. How about they just throw in Lincecum and we can call it even?
  10. I think a Weeks/Durham platoon would give you very good production at the plate at the top of the lineup. Not quite Hanley Ramirez or Ian Kinsler, but very good OBP, .285+ average, and a little bit of power (mostly from Weeks). Durham provides some additional PH flexibility, and if those two can combine to get on base 40-ish% of the time, it looks as if the Brewers would have a difficult time losing games. Now someone just need sto come up with a name...Raykie?
  11. I guess I don't see the issue. You can still go FA to sign a starting pitcher - you just don't have to pick from the top 2 guys out there that are going to get Zito like years/money. The trade route is also clearly a possibility - see Dan Haren and Edinson Volquez.
  12. Of course they are. I guess I'm working under the assumption that Doug is not an idiot.
  13. Without knowing the details of what we are including...Likey!
  14. I think a guy like Ray Ray would be a huge addition to this team right now, without much cost, short- or long-term.
  15. If that deal inclided Mota or Gagne to even out some of the dollars, and provide more gain for the Brewers, i suppose could believe it. Unloading a few million bicks might be worth a minor leaguer.
  16. Yep, you're correct. Bad math on my part. More than half or not, that's a lot of missed starts over 3 seasons. Does that constitue injury prone? I don't know. Do I want to sign him to a 5 year/$80 million contract? Not particularly.
  17. Some would argue thwy've been playing the entire season downa player or two. Ba Dum Bum!
  18. Well if it involves SF, there won't be any official announcement until after the game tomorrow, no?
  19. Based on what I've heard thus far, I'm thinking Ned will feel the same way, so I really don't see a problem.
  20. Ummm...yeah. The Brewers/Sheets can refer to that Lat thing as a back injury all they want because that muscle also runs down the back, but let's face it, that was in fact a shoulder injury and it cost him the better part of two seasons. And that 16% number is fine...unfortunatley, the last three seasons, he has made less than 50% of his starts, so I guess I would say recent history wouuld suggest he may be injury prone. If he can get through this year, that would certainly be a positive (although the fact that it would be in a contract year would give the cynic in me reason for concern). There has been plenty of suspicion that he doesn't take particularly good care of himself. Is that true? I don't know, but I suspect the Brewers do. Is he taking better care of himself because of the money on the line? Will he once he gets a contract (as he continues to get older?)? I don't know what the answers are, but I am dying to see how it plays out. In the meantime, I'd pitch him into the ground this year, because I see little chance he'll be back.
  21. I'm not sure this isn't another factor in all of this...Traditionally, Suppan is obviously a different pitcher in the second half, but if he cannot pitch effectively, do both Bush and McClung end up in the rotation anyway?
  22. Boy is it nice to have pitching though. Just looking ahead at the expected match-ups for StL and the Cubs in particular...Ordinarily you would look at PP's of Lilly, Zambrano, Dempster and Harden, and probably hope to split the series, but when you consider we will counter with Sabathia, Sheets, Parra and Bush, you realize that you might actually have a chance to win 3 of 4.
  23. Whether Sheets or Sabathia, the question is a simple one, do you see the Brewers dummying up a contract in the 5 year/$100 million range? I don't. For the record, if they were to make a choice between the two, its Sabathia and its not close. He's younger, better, and doesn't have the injury history. He has more innings on him, but that's because he hasn't spent 1/3 of his career on the DL. That obvioulsy means he'll be appreciably more expensive, so if the Brewers were to re-sign one, in all liklihood it'd be Sheets. That's a 5 year/$75 million contract I would not want to consider. In the end, the Brewers will likely have to go Gallardo, Parra, and look outside for another front end starter, and frankly may be ok doing so. But off-topic discussuion aside, that's for another day...facing the NL, his second half numbers should be scary good. Also an unbelievable job by Doug Melvin getting him in here early - he has started 3 of the last 7 games - all Brewer wins (with only 1 win in the other 4). Tough to do much better than that.
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