Stealofhome

Well I'm honored to have received this notable contributor award! I just wish the research hadn't so disenfranchised me to the state of the baseball business....

Where do you get lower level exit velocity data? Is that from a non-public facing database?

Forgive me for my ignorance, but what is an SM powerhouse?

The 2024 Brewers season ended with a bite from the Big Apple, and as the playoffs roll toward the concluding World Series, one thing is apparent--while money cannot buy happiness, it does seem pretty good at buying championships. The one last hope of all the small-market teams is the Cleveland Guardians, who currently trail the New York Yankees in the ALCS, 3 games to 1. Depending on where you look (Baseball-Reference, USA Today, spotrac, the remaining teams rank 1st/2nd (New York Yankees), 1st/3rd (New York Mets), 3rd/4th/5th (Los Angeles Dodgers), and 23rd/28th (Cleveland Guardians) in league payroll. It does seem like high-salary teams win it all every year, but how do they rank and more importantly, how do the Brewers compare? I went through all the data from the Wild Card Era (1995-2023) to view the trends. All data from the Baseball-Reference Miscellaneous Team Info tables. First, the team payroll rank for each World Series team since 1995. And how is all of that summarized when we look at the top 5 and top 15 teams by payroll rank? Since 1995, 48% of the champions and 38% of the contestants in the World Series have had top 5 payrolls. 93% of the champions and 83% of the contestants have been in the top half of payroll. Only two low-payroll teams have won it all -- the 2002 Anaheim Angels and the 2003 Florida Marlins. It has been two decades since that has happened. The list of losing World Series teams in the bottom half of payroll for the season includes the 2007 Rockies, 2008 and 2020 Rays, 2010 Rangers, 2014 Royals, 2015 Mets, 2016 Indians, and 2023 Diamondbacks. Only nine times in 29 years (31%), has the team with the lower payroll in the World Series beaten the team with the higher payroll. Of those winners, three of them had top 10 payrolls themselves, and seven were in the top half of the league. Most World Series champions fare favorably to the top payroll team in the league, with the most notable exceptions that have already been mentioned. If we search for World Series winning teams with less than 50% of the team with the highest payroll in the league each year, but were still in the top 15 teams by payroll, we do get a few more interesting names (Top Payroll Team): the 2005 White Sox (Yankees), 2006 Cardinals (Yankees), 2008 Phillies (Yankees), 2010 Giants (Yankees), and 2015 Royals (Dodgers). The Yankees have had the top payroll according to Baseball-Reference for 19 of the last 29 years and have turned all of that money into 5 World Series championships. Finally, how does this apply to the Milwaukee Brewers? In the Wild Card era, the Brewers have never had a higher payroll than the team which won the World Series. When the 2003 Florida Marlins won it all with $49 million dollars, the Brewers had only $41 million. In their most recent run of success in the last 15 years, the closest they've come to competing with the championship team on payroll was right at the beginning. In 2008 through 2012 (with the notable exception of 2009), the Brewers had at least 80% of the payroll of the eventual World Series winning team and were firmly near the middle of the league. Since then, the team has only cracked 70% once (78%, 2022), and has otherwise been in the range of 50-70% of the top payroll. They have never been in the top 10 and have ranked at least 15th in payroll just five times, with three of those years ranking exactly 15th. Since 2008, the 1st and 3rd quartile values for the Brewers payroll percentage of the max team have been 34 - 49%. Their payroll rank interquartile range has been 15-20. 9 teams have managed to make the World Series with similar or worse payrolls and payroll ranks (2003 Marlins, 2007 Rockies, 2008 Rays, 2010 Rangers, 2014 Royals, 2015 Mets, 2016 Indians, 2020 Rays, 2023 Diamondbacks), but only the 2003 Marlins won it all. Interestingly enough, all of those teams actually had much lower payrolls than the Brewers typically do, with the highest comparative payrolls among them being the 2016 Indians (17th, 41% of max) and last year's Dbacks (21st, 44% of max). With the ever-shifting landscape of media streaming rights and whispers of tighter budgets next year, the Brewers seem to be caught in a royal bind. We may keep rooting for them, hoping they’ll be next year’s Cinderella. But without that fateful kiss of destiny, they might end up more like Snow White—eternally dormant after one too many poisoned bites of the apple.

This one? Looks like a clear ball outside:

Back on again! Snip-snap-snip-snap.

YouTube TV? Sometimes they have a free trial.

Just say Garrett Mitchell in the title.

Just reading through some of the quotes after their win last night really shows a team that is riding high right now.

Is there some data on how Peralta matches up with the non-competitive pitch rate on the season with respect to the league? It feels like that has been the story all year but that data point is elusive in public-facing databases.

This seems pretty short-sighted by the Pirates. Sure, they save 200K this year, but does this move them down even further for a potential FA signing spot? It just seems very spiteful to do. I wonder if Tellez will have some recourse through the Players Association to file a grievance.

Ah yes, good point. Just such a rough offensive season for him, I wonder if they just hope he can handle another step up in pitcher quality or let him take it easy and prove he can hit.

Another story line I'm interested in for next year is Cooper Pratt and Eric Brown Jr.'s placement. Does Pratt usurp EBJ's spot at SS in AA?

Cooper Pratt's AA debut tonight?

Chris Rose has him on the Rose Rotation podcast every so often and Glasnow talks a bit about being able to release frustration in the moment. When pitching, he'll go into the tunnel and destroy a trash can or something. I wonder if this is just part of that process with him? Seems like everyone who needs to know what's happening is aware, though.

It was a bang-bang play and took a perfect throw, but it still felt like he shouldn't have been sent.

"Luke Adams takes a pitch that doesn't hit him for the first time today." Give props to the Captains PBP crew for that nugget.

And I'm getting repetitive ads that are way louder than the PBP audio.

With the Timber Rattlers calling up Yophery Rodriguez and Mason Molina, it unlocks a childhood memory. The softball league I played in would have a tournament with all the teams at Lakeside Park, and one year a team completely replaced everyone with totally different and much better players. They had been pretty bad all year, but handily won the tournament. Hopefully these two players do the same for the Timber Rattlers.

Are there any online resources for getting a compilation of information about prospects? Perhaps Brewers-focused, but also not necessarily. I'm thinking of information from the big prospect sites, comparison of tool grades, statistics, etc. I do know about the scouting report section on this site, but it doesn't quite provide what I am interested in seeing. If one does not exist, what information/links might people be interested in seeing? What resources and websites are your go-to for reports and tool grades?

This is easily the best 20-year run in Brewers history. As of today, the team is just slightly behind the 10-year run from 1978-1988 (.5284 vs. .5281) and the 15-year run from 1978-1992 (.524 vs. .522).

Cooper Pratt now with 5 HR in only 86 AB in A+. Gunnar Henderson had 9 in 243 AB at A+. All small sample sizes, but if Pratt wants to keep the comparisons, he has to keep showing in-game power like this.

A lot of breaking balls are pretty easy to follow as a viewer from the center field camera angle, but those changeups are an optical illusion.

Ooh boy, that was a rough 10th inning for the Shuckers' defense