Lincecum was a top ranked prospect from the beginning (like Weeks and Fielder). Fresh out of the draft, he was ranked 11. While it may have been hard to predict that he would win back to back Cy Youngs, it's wasn't that much of a stretch to say he would be a #1 or #2 pitcher with a decent chance of being one of the best in the league. Not all "top prospects" make it big (see Homer Bailey - at least so far). However, it's easier to get excited about guys ranked in the top 10 or 20, than a pitcher that was once ranked 44th and has since been beset by injuries and another pitcher who has a tendency to be wild and just broke into the top 100 at #100 (not to mention his suspension issues). To say that either of these pitchers will be #2 or #3 pitchers "at worse" seems fairly optimistic. edit: by the way, my original post talked about the top 100 prior to this year. Neither pitcher (Rogers or Jeffress) made that list. To be listed #100 one year and not listed the next, is not the direction you want to go (whatever the reason).