Matt Breen

As I said in the original post, this isn't about Davis' bat or the love that some people on this board have for him. I was reluctant to post this simply because I was afraid that's what it would turn into. I purposely avoided putting 'Khris Davis has the worst arm in baseball history' in the title for that reason. What I think is cool is our ability to quantify these kinds of things. Understanding all the new data that is coming out of baseball can be difficult - but I find it pretty interesting.

I want to make this note: Josh Hader has technically graduated from MLB's rookie eligibility list due to more than 45 days on the roster. But we just look at innings pitched for our Top 25 - and he has less than 20 IP this year - so he's eligible for our list. Just want things to be clear for people as they vote.

That actually is pretty common. Usually 8-10 guys get put into the top 100 from the recent draft.

That's what it appears. Josh was called up on June 9. Rookie eligibility is 45 days or 50 IP - so he's crossed over the former threshold.

It's an interesting idea. I honestly can't answer the question as I don't know much about Snell other than he has struggled with his control this year (and pretty badly). That's not a shocker for a young pitcher - but it's never something you are happy about. A year ago, we'd probably have jumped on getting Snell. Now, I guess it would come down to what the club thinks about him. If they still see top of the rotation upside - then he's an interesting buy-low guy. But if there are a lot of doubts -- well, it's hard to give up someone who's playing as well as Knebel. It would be interesting to hear from others who have seen Snell pitch this year and/or know more about his situation.

I saw this article on Fangraphs - a 15 year review of the worst arms in baseball. Khris Davis is the worst - hands down. In fact, Davis is have the worst season of any 'arm' in the last 15 years (even Juan Pierre beats him!). http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/good-lord-khris-davis/ The study uses DRS and UZR - so take that for what it's worth. Please don't take this as a slam on Davis or a justification for trading him. He's a good player, even with the weak arm. He's an okay runner, and he takes good routes on the ball - meaning he's a not a total waste as an OF. Still, he is destined for DH sooner than later. I just thought it was interesting. Here's the top 10 worst arms for 2017 (player, innings, outfield value): Khris Davis: 635.2 / -8.5 Ben Revere: 414.0 / -4.6 Christian Yelich: 812.2 / -3.7 Matt Joyce: 660.1 / -3.5 Adam Jones: 794.2 / -3.3 Charlie Blackmon: 850.1 / -3.3 J.D. Martinez: 441.0 / -3.2 Aaron Altherr: 598.1 / -3.0 Chris Young: 274.0 / -2.8 A.J. Pollock: 392.2 / -2.7

And anyone reading that will make them think the exact opposite of what you said. You have no clue what's happening. You don't know offers he's made (or not made). You don't know how many people he has talked with, about who, about what the price of the players have been. Being 'aggressive' and making an overpay is just foolish business. How do you know? For some players, the price is put extremely high - in the hopes that the price is paid. As the deadline approaches, that price may go down if no one is buying at the price. It all depend on the situation. Because the price is too high. I don't know how hard that is to understand. It happens all the time. Is he so stupid that if a team says no to his offer that he just keeps upping the offer until he says yes? That's idiotic. Perhaps the other team doesn't want to make a deal yet - waiting for others to get involved or someone to enter the scene at change the stakes (sort of like Kershaw getting hurt). We just don't know. Yes, there is. If waiting two weeks saves you a ton of value, you wait. Unless the product you want is available at the time for the price you feel is fair - then you wait if you feel that that price will drop. Perhaps the the Twins and Royals are not interested in the high cost of someone like Sonny Gray. So they bought from a lower priced bin. For them, the price was right at the time they pulled the trigger. Because buying too quickly costs too much. Of course you would. And perhaps a team is willing to pay extra for getting a player earlier (like when Milwaukee got CC Sabathia back in 2008). But there is a cost/benefit to such a move. If the premium is too high - so be it - move on until you think the price is right (if ever). Who the Brewers actually want to trade for - and what we are willing to give up - is only a guess. To me, I'd love them to do several moves (a decent reliever or two, a decent starting pitcher). But if the price isn't right - wait. People say, "Oh, Stearns is afraid to make a move." I say that's crap. Actually, I say he's not afraid to be smart, which means not overpaying. It takes far more guts to stick with what you believe is right for the franchise than to cave in to external pressures. I get that people have different opinions on how the franchise should be run. I'm not saying they don't try and improve this year, but it's done on our terms. Perhaps that nets us nothing. And perhaps we regret in come October. But now all we get is comments day after day about how Stearns is an idiot and a coward and not fit for the job, and moan every time something does or doesn't happen. We get it, you don't like Stearns. We get it, you want the team to do what ever it takes to close the deal. We get it, it frustrates you. Oh well, I guess that's what this board is for. It's just not very fun.

Comeback falls short as M-Braves take third straight from Shuckers Johnny Davis was 3-for-5 with a pair of RBI's in the loss on Friday By Biloxi Shuckers Johnny Davis recorded his second-straight multi-hit game on Friday night for the Shuckers (Mark P Driscoll) Biloxi Shuckers Box Score Quick Summary: Biloxi lost their there straight game, falling 6-4 to the Mississippi Braves. Corbin Burnes took the lose in what may have been his worst start of his career. Biloxi couldn’t come up with the hits when needed. They only managed four runs despite getting 13 hits and walking four time. Pitching Summary: Corbin Burnes: (5.0 IP, 6 hits, 4 ER, 2BB, 5K), took the lose Taylor Williams: 2 IP, 3 hits, 2 ER, 2BB Josh Uhen: 1 IP, 0 hits, 0BB, 3K (nice outing for Uhen) Hitting Summary: Johnny Davis: 3-5, 2 RBI Blake Allemand: 2-4, BB, RBI Dustin DeMuth: 2-5 Javier Betancourt: 2-2, 2B, 2BB Rene Garcia: 2-4 Biloxi Shuckers Game Log The big blow against the Shuckers was a three run HR in the bottom of the 3rd by Austin Riley. Mississippi Bottom of the 3rd Max Fried doubles (1) on a fly ball to left fielder Tyler Bortnick. Jared James reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Gabriel Noriega. Max Fried to 3rd. Dylan Moore singles on a ground ball to center fielder Johnny Davis. Max Fried scores. Jared James to 2nd. Austin Riley homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Jared James scores. Dylan Moore scores. Tyler Neslony singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tyler Bortnick. Joey Meneses strikes out swinging. Emerson Landoni hit by pitch. Tyler Neslony to 2nd. Jonathan Morales grounds into a double play, shortstop Gabriel Noriega to second baseman Blake Allemand to first baseman Dustin DeMuth. Emerson Landoni out at 2nd.

Back to the thread - Expectations for 2018: Brewers resign Sogard and make him our everyday 2B. It will a modest deal for 2-3 years. The team likes his left handed bat and on base ability. He's a smart guy (I mean, look at the glasses - he has to be smart, right?). The team will take the gamble that his performance this year isn't a fluke. They don't expect him to hit .300, but if they can get .280 and a .350 OBP - plus good, consistent defense - they will be thrilled. Villar is gone. This is my 'bold' guess for 2018. The team loves his abilities, but their frustration with his mental lapses and poor decision making will cause them to trade him. If the Sogard option didn't exist, they would probably try Villar for another year - but now that we are seen as possible contenders, accountability has to come into play. I think I read a comment about Villar by an Astro player or exec who - at the time of his trade to Milwaukee - said something like he was a 'knucklehead.' The Brewers will come to that conclusion as well and cut ties. Brinson will be a full time OF. In fact, I'm predicting he is up and playing full time by sometime in August - similar to what the team did with Arcia last year. Club brings back Vogt (assuming his injury isn't severe). Team picks up Garza's option for $5M. It's a great deal for a back of the rotation guy. Rotation out of camp is Nelson, Anderson, Garza, Woodruff and Suter. Burnes is in the rotation by mid-season. Hader goes to the bullpen full time. Brewers sign one or two free agent relievers in the off season. Guys like Neshak - overpaying a bit on 1-2 year deals - deals that won't cripple the franchise if the guy flames out. Peralta will be released - probably before the end of this season. Of course, all this is can change if we make any trades or have any injuries in the coming months. My guesses are based on the team make up as of right now.

Agree. Wilson is a solid reliever - but not that exciting. He would be a great addition and a good player - but it's not like he's elite.

I bet Scahill gets the axe. With Braun hurting we'd be really light on outfielders if we sent down Keon.

A starter with two pitchers can survive - even be very good - if one (or both) of those pitches is exceptional. Sheets had a wicked curveball. That allowed him be successful as a primarily two pitch guy. There will always be exceptions - but generally a starter is going to need to have three pitches that can play.

If you package Zimmerman with Wilson, I'm guessing the Tigers would still have to pay at least 1/2 (if not more) of Zimmerman's salary (he is owed $83M through 2020). And we'd essentially give up a non-prospect in return. That would mean Zimmerman would be getting paid around $12M a year by the Crew for 3+ years of work. Not an insignificant risk. Of course, the Crew would be essentially buying Wilson for the rest of this year and next. The most important thing is that the Brewers would have to believe Zimmerman would rebound to some degree. No point in taking him on if you believe he is going to stink. Personally, I'm not a fan of this kind of thing, as the odds of Zimmerman suddenly rebounding and becoming a 3.0+ WAR pitcher again is probably pretty small. In reality, he's probably lucky to be a back of the rotation guy - something we don't really need. We need someone who is more a middle of the rotation pitcher (or better). A back of the rotation guy just doesn't push the needle much in our favor - especially at the price he would cost.

Someone will pay big for Darvish - but it won't be us. Not for a rental - and not at the price it will likely cost. If he is traded, my guess is he goes to the Yankees.

You don't need an excuse to not do something stupid. No one knows what it's going to take to get Gray. Until a deal is done by someone - anyone - the only ridiculous thing is that we should assume that we should have a deal done by now. In the end, perhaps you're right. But right now, no one knows the situation except the GMs.

Agreed with all of this. But with how small our payroll is, why not try to package Verlander with a reliever like Wilson, agree to take on a lot of Verlander's salary, and thus lessen the quality of prospects needed to get the deal done. That way we add a potentially great SP, a very good reliever, and keep our farm system intact. You are exactly correct. As I noted, the Tigers would have to send back money - or equivalent assets. That means players of value. One that that the Brewers have is financial flexibility. It's a valuable thing to have. It's like any asset - prospects, players, whatever - it allows to to take on salary when we see fit. Many teams can't take on $10M or $20M or whatever in salary. That we can gives us more bargaining power. I'm not saying we go out and get Verlander. I haven't really seen the guy pitch for a while. That's for the teams scouts to do. But it's something to consider.

Verlander - as an asset - is essentially underwater. He's due another $10-12M or so for 2017. He's due $28M for 2018 and 2019. That's $68-70M. I guess the question is, if Justin Verlander was a free agent right now, what annual salary would you give him on a contract that goes through 2019? $10M? $15M $20M? It certainly wouldn't be $28M. I'm guessing someone would give him 1/2 that - so $14M or so. That's just a guess. I realize the excellent 2016 is really enticing - but in reality, Verlander has been pretty mediocre (other than 2016). His Fangraphs WAR the last few years goes as follows: 2014: 2.9 2015: 2.9 2016: 5.2 2017: 1.7 (thus far) Baseball Reference has Verlander's WAR to at 1.1, 2.2, 6.6 and 1.1 - so quite a bit worse than Fangraphs. Even if you overpay Verlander a bit - just on the outside chance he can regain his 2016 form - the Tigers would still have to include at least $25M or so (or equivalent assets). And we wouldn't be giving up anything of real value to make the deal. The whole no-trade clause that Verlander has further muddies the situation. I doubt the Crew really is that interested in him (but you never know). In reality, it's probably just playing the field. Stearns is asking about any starter - signaling to the A's (and other clubs) that we can look elsewhere if you ask too much.

The 2014 Brewers were 52-36 on July 5. They then lost seven in a row. They went 30-44 after July 5 - finished 82-80. They were still in 1st place on September 1 - but in middle of another 7-game losing streak just before the all-star break. Finished 3rd in the division. The team was 53-43 at the break. Went 29-37 to finish the season.

Brewers supposedly showing interest in Verlander: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/justin-verlander-trade-rumors-brewers-tigers.html

I'd take Sonny Gray in a heartbeat. He would be a great addition. I just don't want to overpay for him. I've said this before, but I'm happy to go to war with the guys that got me there. If we can improve at a reasonable cost - go for it. But otherwise, let's just roll the dice with the kids that got us to this point. I like the process we have developed.

Interesting no Villar for the second straight game. I imagine Counsel would like to have Sogard back.

I had forgotten about Zimmerman. Wow, remember when he was an all-star caliber guy people wanted to sign in free agency. Amazing what a couple of years can do.

Fulmer is FAR more difficult to get than Verlander. Verlander is 34, performing very average, and owed $70M. Aging, overpaid and mediocre. Not a ton of value there. Fulmer: young, cheap, controllable and very good. That means it's going to take a lot. Far more than Verlander. He meant if we eat Verlander's contract would they be more likely to trade Fulmer, knowing they could get that money off the books. Tigers front office seems to want top prospects and complete salary relief in a Verlander trade though, so I guess they don't see him as the liability that you do. Thanks. Read it wrong.

Seems like a light return for what might be the best bat on the market. Dodgers should have made a move for Martinez, as they sometimes struggle against lefties, and Martinez kills southpaws.

Colin Moran (who has been recalled by Houston) has been playing really well at AAA (.308, 18 HR). He was a former Top 100 guy who is still only 24 - but he seems to have put things together this year. They might just roll with Moran at 3B for a bit and just shift Bregmann over to SS. Otherwise, they could call up a 1B (White or Reed) or trade for one - and shift Guriell to 3B. As noted, they have some nice depth.