The Super 2 cost isn't the extra money paid getting to arbitration a year sooner, its the large cost of getting 4 chances at the arbitration process. I've never seen anyone get less money for the next seen after going thru arbitration. Heck there was someone that got a raise (not completely sure of the amount at this time) after missing around 95% of last season. To expand further I'm going to use Trevor Bauer as an example. After a few years of ups & downs, he has finally started putting it together & is performing at a good level (not great All-Star level, but also not as a run of the mill starter). After his 2nd trip thru arbitration Bauer is getting paid over $6.5MM for 2018 & is on path for 2 more trips thru arbitration. My guess is Bauer is likely looking at $11MM to $15MM for that 4th (& extra) year of arbitration assuming his performance level holds or improves. Now Burnes might perform better than Bauer or he might perform worse over multiple years. At this time we don't know how it will shake out. I'm not looking to compare them as pitchers. My point is that extra year of arbitration has a greater impact than $3MM over 1 season (using the Knebel example you noted). I understand that. So someone like Burnes might make $3M, $5M, $7.5M, and $11M as a Super 2, or 3, 5.5, and 9 as a 3 arby player, just to throw out an example. So you could be talking $10M or so in difference. More, or less, depending on productivity. But if you think he could make a difference in 2018 in contending, it could be worth it versus a price to pay of 2.5M a year or so over 4 years. Course if you really really believe in the guy, you could offer to buy it all out for $20M or so and tack on a couple team options, and then it's a moot point. Even if you end up with a Jon Singleton situation, it's not going to hurt you much. But that's a whole other discussion itself.