adambr2

I don't think Barnes was the problem, but I can agree a strong bullpen is more important to this team than most. We lost so many games in the late innings and missed the playoffs by 1 game. Our bullpen wasn't as bad as some made it out to be, but it was amplified by an offense that simply couldn't come through in the late innings. Someone noted that we had one of the best offenses in baseball in the early innings and one of the worst in the late innings and theorized that part of the reason is that we had such a high strikeout offense, facing high leverage, high K relievers late in the game really caused a lot of late inning struggles for us. That theory makes sense to me. Aside from revamping our lineup to a lower K rate squad, which isn't happening anytime soon, the only real way to compensate is to assemble a top shutdown bullpen .

I'm not really crazy about moving Shaw off of 3rd, he has more value there than at 1st with his bat, and he also carries a pretty good glove at 3rd. Moustakas is nothing special, and you're still probably left with a soft platoon at 1st. These all seem like pretty lateral moves to me from Thames/Aguilar, not enough value for the money IMO. If we're set on improving our bat at 1st I'd argue that we may as well go see what the White Sox want for Jose Abreu...

Ok. What is your suggested upgrade for 1B this offseason that increases our chances of a World Series in Milwaukee? The situation you're describing will be an issue with any platoon (and really isn't that bad in that case as Aguilar does okay vs. RHP). Platoons are a necessary evil at times . It's very difficult to find lefty bats that are highly effective against LHP and you probably won't find such a 1B on the market this off-season. You say it doesn't have to be Hosmer; ok, then who? Logan Morrison? Won't be cheap and he can't hit lefties either. If you're looking for a guy you don't have to platoon, maybe Carlos Santana is your guy, but again you're spending a lot of money and he doesn't scream guaranteed upgrade over a Thames/Aguilar platoon to me.

Thames carried a .933 OPS vs RHP, Aguilar. 889 vs. LHP. Counsell needs to use them a little more optimally in 2018 as Thames had nearly as many PAs vs. LHP (111) as Aguilar (115). Both are ideal platoon candidates if used properly. Thames should never start vs. LHP except in an emergency. Is 1B upgradable? Sure. Is it worth what it would take to upgrade? I don't think so. I'd far prefer a solid Thames/Aguilar platoon over what it would take to get Hosmer.

Yep, that's exactly what I mean. People have often cited the 135-140 games played per year from 2014-2016. I get that. I've seen the numbers too and understand the context. The problem is, IMO, it's more than just the games played. You can't look at 135 games played and assume 135 healthy starts from him. Think of how many various ailments and nagging injuries he's battled and played through over the last 4 or so years, the thumb, the wrist, the calf, etc. etc. Those injuries have been a nearly annual problem, and it doesn't always show up in games played. Sometimes it's been the cause of his somewhat underwhelming production, and yet we always circle back to who he is when he's healthy, when at this point, he almost never is. This 'if Braun can stay healthy this year' feels like an annual thing. Braun was supposedly the healthiest he had been in years coming into 2017, and look how his season turned out. Now I'm to believe that at age 34, with a now extensive injury history and history of past, possibly chronic PED use, he's going to just hit the reset button in 2018 and have a fully healthy season? Sorry, I'm just not buying it.

The problem with that projection is that you're projecting 125 games of good health, when in reality it's incredibly likely he'll be playing through injuries through many of those 125 games that will affect his performance. The player he was, was a generally healthy player. He's unlikely to be that guy again.

I agree Barnes isn't going anywhere and the Knebel comparison makes sense. Knebel has his share of struggles in 2016. What I'd like to know is why Barnes got away from throwing his slider so much in 2017. Coming up I always thought Barnes had a really nasty looking slider that perfectly complemented his fastball. For the most part at least to me it seemed that he ditched it this last season in favor of his cutter.

One thing I've noticed is that many seem to assume that because we're a contending team again, and because we have plenty of extra money to spend, Stearns and Mark A. will embark on a spending spree over the next year or two. I don't think we can necessarily make that assumption, and Stearns doesn't seem like the kind of GM to me who will go out and spend for the sake of spending. I think it's possible, but it's still going to have to be a deal within reason and one that makes sense for us. Paying Cozart big money just because we can afford it to fill our 2B hole when he's a SS seems like the proverbial square peg and round hole to me. I just don't see us going that route. At that point I think we'd be far likelier just to try to bring back Walker for less money and less years. I think it's entirely possible that the only signings this off-season consist of Swarzek, maybe another pen arm and another small piece or two. Or, maybe we do sign someone to a big deal. A lot of different ways this off-season could go.

I have to agree. Cozart has never played an inning anywhere besides SS in his entire career. Not saying he couldn't but a big part of his value is that he's an elite defensive SS, too. Maybe it would be different if he were a bad defensive SS who could benefit from a move to 2nd but not the case here. He'll get big money and multiple years from someone who needs him to play short. I'd be nervous about such a big commitment for someone with one great out of nowhere offensive year anyway. But who is going to be in the SS market? He may have trouble finding a team - in which case a more reasonable deal from r someone as injury prone as him would make more sense. With the supply of decent 2B possibly exceeding demand I hope the Brewers sign one on a decent deal. It wouldn’t have to be too long then either (not that I already assume Hiura if the future at 2B like some apparently do ) Arizona comes to mind. Maybe the Twins? Giants if they think they can get right back to contention. It's hard to say right now, a lot can happen in the off-season, guys could be traded, signed, etc. Only way I could see us pursuing Cozart would be if we were to trade Arcia as part of a big off-season blockbuster. Which I doubt would happen, although I suppose we traded Escobar at a similar spot in his career so you never know.

Thanks Reilly. I agree things had gotten out of hand, and part of that is my fault. In the end, I think there are two camps of perception of Braun's value. There is the camp who sees him as still a top hitter when healthy, with the chance to still be a difference maker for us in the last few years of his deal. Then there is the camp that never really expects him to be fully healthy for an extended period of time again, and because of that, now sees him as more of a liability than an asset, both because of the games he'll miss and the lack of production he'll have when he continues to have to play through injuries in the future. I happen to be in the latter camp. Time will tell who is right. Obviously, I would prefer to be wrong -- I want this team to succeed, first and foremost and we are a better team with a healthy and productive Braun.

Didn't they just extend Estrada like a month ago? Doesn't make much sense to me that they would extend him only to trade him for nothing a month or 2 later.

I have to agree. Cozart has never played an inning anywhere besides SS in his entire career. Not saying he couldn't but a big part of his value is that he's an elite defensive SS, too. Maybe it would be different if he were a bad defensive SS who could benefit from a move to 2nd but not the case here. He'll get big money and multiple years from someone who needs him to play short. I'd be nervous about such a big commitment for someone with one great out of nowhere offensive year anyway.

If you had actually gone back and gone back and read the posts from the last few days you would have seen me already explain why I compared Braun to the best (to show he is no longer among the best), and in the same post you would have seen me mention comparably aged, far more productive players like Votto and Turner. But by all means, keep beating that dead horse. Then you spent the rest of your post with horribly reasoned arguments that we've all seen many times before. I can't stomach another "just take out his worst few weeks!" or "think what he would have done if he wasn't hurt!" A Braun playing through injuries is what we're getting the rest of his career. Get used to it. You actually are taking out a stretch in which Braun didn't hit a HR to condense your data so his 17 HR looks more impressive, even though he was still playing and therefore hurting the team with his play. I mean, are you kidding me? The lengths people will go to, to defend a player who has averaged 2 WAR for 5 seasons in a row now. You know who predicted this kind of season from Braun? Fangraphs. Actually, they overshot, they had him at 1.9 fWAR compared to his actual 1.5 this year. A flipping computer understood based on all available data that Braun is an average at best player now. Yeah, I'll say it again. He's overrated. Let's bookmark this and revisit it in a year. I'm looking forward to it. Because fangraphs and WAR are the final verdict on whether a player is good or not... It's not unreasonable to dismiss the last month of the season for the most part as he was significantly hampered with injury...and I would hope he learns from this and with our better options available doesn't play when he isn't 100%. Look a little further at Braun's metrics on fangraphs. His BABIP was the lowest of his career while his contact rates and line drive rates were right in line with career norms. His k rate is lower than career average and his bb rate is higher than his career average. Not playing injured that last month and average luck probably would have given Braun an 850 ops on the season MINIMUM. Probably would be closer to 900. Braun is obviously not still in the Trout/Harper class of player, but he's definitely the best player on this team and a well above average player. I never said they were the final verdict. My point about WAR in this case was that the prediction on his value in that respect was mediocre and this turned out to be true. I've seen the metrics on Braun that you're referring to. I don't discount it. But what I believe, which is somewhat of the elephant in the room, is that past chronic steroid use is contributing to Braun's frequent injury rate and his body breaking down younger than anticipated. If this is the case, it's probably going to get worse, not better. The 'clean slate' that some might expect next year is likely only going to be temporary. No, I don't believe it's reasonable to just 'throw out' the time Braun is playing injured. That's a part of his value now. Either he plays injured at times or he plays in probably 100 or less games a season. It's a catch 22, and its not likely to go away. Sure, you can have him sit whenever ailing even slightly, but it's going to cost you even more availability than you already lose with him. I do believe some misunderstand the argument I am trying to make about Braun. I'm not denying he can still be a good player WHEN healthy. I'm saying that people are overly optimistic about his future health and how much that negatively affects his value. It would be different if it was one nagging injury. It's not one thing. First it was a trapezius. Then a flexor. Then a calf. Then a wrist. It's a laundry list of things, and it'll be a laundry list of things next year.

HNW, WAR is just one piece of the puzzle, I fully acknowledge that, so for you to use that as an assessment of what I know is fairly ignorant on your part. But it's a good big picture evaluation. I don't discount his first half. I don't discount his BB rate or his hard hit rate. Unlike you (let's just take out all his injured and slump stretches!), I do use the entire picture to come to a conclusion. And yes, I believe he's overrated, mostly by us Brewer fans. No, despite the fact that you think you know me, I am fully capable of analyzing data, the whole picture, and coming to my own conclusions without your 'assistance'. At this point, I fully realize that I have wasted far too much of my time and energy arguing with someone who carries a different opinion than himself. You simply can't handle it, it drives you crazy when someone doesn't see things the way you do. It's no longer worth the time. To the block list you go...

Trout is 8yrs younger than Braun and Altuve is 6yrs. Nice comparison using guys entering their prime vs a 33yr old. At least Blackmon is 30. But he slashed 276/337/784 on the road this year (look up what he hit at Coors - fun stuff). Blackmon's slashed 264/312/740 over his career away from Coors while slashing 346/406/972 at Coors. Enough said. On August 17 this year, Braun was slashing 295/368/912 with 10% BB rate, 19% K rate, 134 wRC+ while having the highest hard contact rate of his career. That slash line is right in line with his career numbers, which are pretty evenly split between home/away too, unlike your boy Blackmon and his jock. Braun slumped the final 2wks of August hitting 6-42 with 2 doubles and 0HR. Remove that 2wk stretch from the season and he slashed 284/358/888. Yeah, these numbers SCREAM "really overrated". Then factor in his wrist injury on top of all this. He's the best bat on the team and will be back to his 560 PAs next year performing where he did for 90% of this year. And mediocre 17HR this year? He did that in 338 AB (not including second half of Aug)...not 510 AB. If you had actually gone back and gone back and read the posts from the last few days you would have seen me already explain why I compared Braun to the best (to show he is no longer among the best), and in the same post you would have seen me mention comparably aged, far more productive players like Votto and Turner. But by all means, keep beating that dead horse. Then you spent the rest of your post with horribly reasoned arguments that we've all seen many times before. I can't stomach another "just take out his worst few weeks!" or "think what he would have done if he wasn't hurt!" A Braun playing through injuries is what we're getting the rest of his career. Get used to it. You actually are taking out a stretch in which Braun didn't hit a HR to condense your data so his 17 HR looks more impressive, even though he was still playing and therefore hurting the team with his play. I mean, are you kidding me? The lengths people will go to, to defend a player who has averaged 2 WAR for 5 seasons in a row now. You know who predicted this kind of season from Braun? Fangraphs. Actually, they overshot, they had him at 1.9 fWAR compared to his actual 1.5 this year. A flipping computer understood based on all available data that Braun is an average at best player now. Yeah, I'll say it again. He's overrated. Let's bookmark this and revisit it in a year. I'm looking forward to it.

And that's why you make sure he gets to play more than that, you're the only one who has proposed that low a number of starts. Can easily get him 110-120 starts, maybe more. Doesn't seem like a waste to me. I'd prefer to trade prospects further from the majors for pitching. If we're trading for someone who can help us now (As in 2018 and 2019), I'd rather not trade away someone who can also help us now. So you'd rather have 110-120 starts out of Brinson (many of which won't even be in CF), than a starter the caliber of Nelson or Gray when we already have Phillips? I get it, 6 years of Brinson value is nothing to sneeze at as far as value if he becomes who we hope. But I would bet very heavily that my plan is far more likely to see us in the playoffs in 2018. It's also risk management. Just because Brinson is close to the majors doesn't eliminate the possibility that he'll flame out especially with his injuries. Whereas Phillips has already been successful vs. MLB pitching, albeit in limited time.

Start Brinson vs. all lefties and an occasional start against a RHP when Braun is hurt? Seems like a waste of your top prospect to me. Especially when if he can't stay healthy or isn't productive in 2018 his value could drop dramatically. It's an option. But if you can either do that or roll with Phillips in CF and Broxton as a filler and land a frontline starter for Brinson in a year where you definitely need one with Nelson out? Seems like a no-brainer to me.

I'm just curious as to what people want to do with Phillips if we aren't open to trading Brinson. Phillips isn't going back to AAA. He's ready. I know people are generally happy with what he did but I think we even underestimate some how good he was. He was a 1 WAR player in under 100 PAs. Extrapolate that out to just 500 and his production would have been a 5 WAR player, and the .799 OPS he put up is sustainable. I'm not saying he'll be a 5 WAR player, but I see no reason he can't be a 3-4 WAR CF, especially when you consider he's still just 23 with room to improve. Everyone is high on Brinson because of his prospect status but Phillips was a top prospect in his own right. Then he had one bad year in AA and unfairly fell off the prospect map. Since then he's been right back to doing what he was doing as a top prospect only doing it up here now. I also don't agree that Brinson's trade value isn't enough to compensate for his ceiling. If you can use him as a centerpiece for a front line starter I'd say that's plenty of value. I like Brinson. But if I had to bet on him or Phillips being the CF of the future right now, I'd go with Phillips.

Well I think it goes without saying that when people say something on here, unless they're citing facts, it's their opinion. I don't think there is a need to disclaim it every time with 'in my opinion', but that's just my opinion. I don't know what gives you hope that Braun will hit .900 OPS and 140 games next year as he has only hit each of those marks once in the last 5 seasons, and not in the same season. Hope you're right but seems wildly optimistic to me that he'll suddenly do so again at 34 as the injuries continue to become more and more of a problem. I do however agree with you on Brinson. The best way to proceed with him might be to deal him as a headliner in a blockbuster SP trade this off-season while he still has that top prospect luster on him. A full platoon of Phillips and Broxton could be pretty solid in CF.

Problem is that he doesn't really have value. He's owed the following: 2018:$19M ($4M deferred) 2019:$18M ($3M deferred) 2020:$16M ($3M deferred) 2021:$15M mutual option ($4M buyout) That's $57M - minimum, with $10M deferred. Fangraphs and Baseball Reference had him valued at 1.5WAR and 1.2WAR in 2017, respectively. His production is down, he's injury prone, he's aging (34 next month) and he's a liability in the field. No one wants to pay $57M in the hope he can rebound. At this point, we would be lucky to trade him for next to nothing. Spot on. He has no value. He has negative value, really. He isn't going anywhere now. Just no longer makes the sense that it made a year ago when we'd have to eat salary and get nothing back.

Andrew McCutcheon has been worth over 25 WAR total over the last 5 seasons. Braun has been worth a total of 10. How long before people see that his 'down' year is just a 'year for him at this point? Andrew McCutcheon has missed a total of 36 games over that span and his availability has been a non-issue. He has not played in less than 146 games in a season during that time. Braun has numerous injuries concerns and has not played in more than 140 games in a season during that span. He has missed 58 games this year alone and 134 over that span (I'm not even counting a single game in 2013 where he missed 65 for suspension and numerous others for injury.) Braun is also more than 3 years older. In no way is present-day Ryan Braun comparable to present-day Andrew McCutcheon. Why do many Brewer fans have such a hard time accepting that the Ryan Braun we remember from his heyday is gone forever and isn't coming back and that the one we have now simply isn't a great player anymore?

Burnes will not be rushed. Most MLB action I can see from him next year is maybe being this year's Woodruff. But I don't see them realistically trying to push him into a rotation spot next spring. Eventually, of course, just not on the opening day 25 man next year. Wilkerson may very realistically challenge for a rotation spot in the spring especially with the injury to Nelson. It's kind of now or never for him. Freddy Peralta needs to be and will be added to the 40 man over the winter too and so I expect him to see some time up on the 25.

Can't he just retire for his own health or something? It's cliche to say, but there are about 60 million reasons why he won't.

I know it doesn't change the point but Domingo was bound to have a birthday at some point and is 25. People have been saying he's 24 for like, 14 months.

Pretty much agree with all of this except for Braun. To whom? The Dodgers don't need him, and the NTC makes it nearly impossible he agrees to go elsewhere now. Who is willing to give up much for a meh hitting 34 year old with a 1.5 WAR with recent injury concerns and a $20M a year price tag? Even if they found a trade partner that Braun was willing to go to, they'd pretty much have to eat salary and take very little in return now, which isn't a great look for an 86 win team, especially after turning down better offers. The window to trade Braun closed on August 31st, 2016. He isn't going anywhere now.